Some say the world will end in fire,Some say in ice.From what I've tasted of desireI hold with those who favor fire.But if it had to perish twice,I think I know enough of hateTo say that for destruction iceIs also greatAnd would suffice.

Robert Frost

Some say the world will end in fire,Some say in ice.From what I've tasted of desireI hold with those who favor fire.But if it had to perish twice,I think I know enough of hateTo say that for destruction iceIs also greatAnd would suffice.

Robert Frost

Nuclear FamineNuclear Famine

Jeannie Rosenberg, MDJeannie Rosenberg, MDHuntingdon, QCHuntingdon, QC

PGS “Healing the Planet”PGS “Healing the Planet”Montreal, Sept 25 2009 Montreal, Sept 25 2009

Credits:• Steven Starr• International Network of Engineers and

Scientists Against Proliferation• Physicians for Global Survival

• PowerPoint slides prepared with the assistance of

• Alan Robock• Department of Environmental Sciences• Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey

USA

Alan Robock site:

http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/nuclear/

“The Year without a Summer”

1816

Nuclear Holocaust

Cities burn Ground bursts

Massive amounts of smoke Massive amounts of dust

Sunlight absorbed Sunlight reflected

Very little sunlight reaches the ground

Rapid, large surface temperature drops

“Nuclear Winter”

Methodology of Research

• Comprehensive peer reviewed studies done at Rutgers, the University of Colorado-Boulder and UCLA

• Multiple 10 year simulations done using state of art techniques and equipment

• Employed the same NASA climate model used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Primary Findings

• Less than 1% of the global nuclear arsenal detonated in large cities will cause catastrophic disruptions of global climate and massive destruction of the protective stratospheric ozone layer

• The climatic consequences of a large nuclear war – or even a pre-emptive nuclear strike – would make the Earth uninhabitable for humans

Largest conventional bomb = 44 tons TNT Hiroshima-size nuclear weapon = 15,000 tons TNT Smallest strategic nuclear weapon = 100,000 tons TNT Large U.S. strategic nuclear weapon = 1,300,000 tons TNT Largest known strategic nuclear weapon = 100,000,000 tons TNT

Megaton = one million tons of TNT = Mt

India-Pakistan War = 1 ½ Mt

World War II = 3 Mt

High-Alert U.S. and Russian weapons = 1185 Mt

Total deployed U.S. and Russian weapons = 2700 MT

• Global warming since 1880 (in blue ) compared to predicted temperature drops from nuclear war

Canadian wheat production after small drops in average surface temperature

India-Pakistan nuclear war

• 100 Hiroshima-size weapons = ½ WW II or 0.05% of deployed U.S.-Russian weapons

• 5 million tons of smoke rises 50 km above cloud level into the stratosphere

• Global temperatures drop to little Ice-Age levels; significant reduction in precipitation

• 25-40% of ozone destroyed at mid-latitudes, 50-70% destroyed at northern high latitudes

India-Pakistani conflict using 100 Hiroshima-size nuclear weapons

Change in average surface temps 2 years after India-Pakistan nuclear war

% Change in global precipitation 1 year after India-Pakistan nuclear war

How could nuclear war start?How could nuclear war start?

Escalation of a local warEscalation of a local war

AccidentAccident

Annihilation by Accident

Megaton = one million tons of TNT = Mt

World War II = 3 Mt High-Alert U.S. and Russian weapons = 1185 Mt Total deployed U.S. and Russian weapons = 2700 MT

• Operational nuclear arsenal has 1000 times the explosive power of all the bombs detonated in World War II

• High-alert arsenals = 300 times explosive power of WWII

Launch-on-Warning (LoW)Launch-on-Warning (LoW)

the Cold War policy of launching a the Cold War policy of launching a retaliatory nuclear strike while the retaliatory nuclear strike while the opponent's missiles or warheads are opponent's missiles or warheads are believed to be in flight, but believed to be in flight, but before before any any detonation from the perceived attack has detonation from the perceived attack has occurredoccurred

Under LoW theUnder LoW the decision to launch is made decision to launch is made solely on the basis of electronic EWS datasolely on the basis of electronic EWS data

What Are High-Alert Nuclear What Are High-Alert Nuclear Weapons?Weapons?

Missiles with nuclear warheads that can be Missiles with nuclear warheads that can be launched in 2 to 15 minuteslaunched in 2 to 15 minutes

Missiles that cannot be recalled and require Missiles that cannot be recalled and require 30 minutes or less to reach their targets30 minutes or less to reach their targets

Most land-based U.S. and Russian Most land-based U.S. and Russian Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are on high-alert, along with some are on high-alert, along with some submarine-launched missiles (SLBMs)submarine-launched missiles (SLBMs)

False Alarms

20 Mishaps That Might Have Started Accidental Nuclear War

by Alan F. Phillips, M.D

• PGS website (PGS.ca)

• Resources

• Abolition of nuclear weapons

• Articles

Prevention

Steps to Eliminate Steps to Eliminate High-Alert WeaponsHigh-Alert Weapons

Eliminate Launch-on-Warning Eliminate Launch-on-Warning PolicyPolicy

De-AlertDe-Alert Nuclear Weapon Systems Nuclear Weapon Systems

De-Alerting Nuclear WeaponsDe-Alerting Nuclear Weapons

De-alerting is the introduction of De-alerting is the introduction of physical physical changes to nuclear weapon systemschanges to nuclear weapon systems to to slow down the launch processslow down the launch processDe-alerting can be used to rapidly De-alerting can be used to rapidly implement existing arms control implement existing arms control agreementsagreementsMany ways to implement de-alerting: Many ways to implement de-alerting: block silo lids, pin back firing switches, block silo lids, pin back firing switches, removing warheads from missilesremoving warheads from missiles

Eliminate Launch-on-Warning Eliminate Launch-on-Warning PolicyPolicy

Launch-on-WarningLaunch-on-Warning policy policy can becan be eliminatedeliminated by Presidential decreeby Presidential decreeNONO retaliation ordered retaliation ordered ONLYONLY on the on the basis of electronic EWS databasis of electronic EWS dataPolicy of RLOAD = Retaliatory Policy of RLOAD = Retaliatory Launch Only After Detonation would Launch Only After Detonation would prevent accidental nuclear war based prevent accidental nuclear war based upon a false warningupon a false warning

Nuclear war Nuclear war is a Climate Change issueis a Climate Change issue

Even a small local nuclear war would Even a small local nuclear war would cause catastrophic global cooling, drought, cause catastrophic global cooling, drought, and famine.and famine.

Progress made on global warming would Progress made on global warming would be made meaningless by a nuclear war.be made meaningless by a nuclear war.

Taking nuclear missiles off “Launch on Taking nuclear missiles off “Launch on Warning” would greatly reduce the risk of Warning” would greatly reduce the risk of accidental nuclear war.accidental nuclear war.