nsw bureau of crime statistics and research did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in nsw?...
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![Page 1: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research
Did the heroin shortage increase
amphetamine use in NSW?Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn
and Melissa Burgess
![Page 2: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Background
• Dec 2000/Jan 2001: significant reduction in heroin supply, purity and increase in cost– Onset of ‘heroin shortage’
• Concerns about drug substitution– Cocaine and amphetamines (ATS)
• Fears about ATS– Effects (psychosis, violence, depression)
– Australian treatment methods centred around heroin addiction
![Page 3: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Previous studies
• Previous research has found mixed results:– Darke et al (2006) found a drop in ATS use– Maher (2007), Longo (2004) found an increase
• Previous research has been hampered by unrepresentative samples and low sample sizes
![Page 4: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Current study
• Aim: To determine whether there was evidence of a switch from heroin to ATS as a result of the heroin shortage
• Data: use/possess series for narcotics and amphetamines, Jan 1995 – Sept 2007
• Method: Vector auto regression (VAR) and ARIMA modelling
![Page 5: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Methodological issues
• Narcotics use/possess as a proxy for heroin?
• Are use/possess arrests a good indicator for drug use?
![Page 6: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Emergency admissions vs. Arrests rates: Heroin
Figure 1a: Quarterly heroin-related hospital presentations and use/possess narcotics arrests, March qtr 1998 - March qtr 2007
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Hospital admissions (Heroin)
Use/possess incidents (Narcotics)
![Page 7: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Emergency admissions vs. Arrest rates: ATS
Figure 1b: Quarterly amphetamine-related hospital prsentations and amphetamines use/possess arrests, March qtr 1998 - March qt 2007
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spit
al a
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issi
on
s
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Use
/po
sses
s ar
rest
s
Hospital admissions(amphetamines)
Use/possess arrests(amphetamines)
![Page 8: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Methodological issues
• Narcotics use/possess as a proxy for heroin?
• Are use/possess arrests a good indicator for drug use?
• When did the heroin shortage start?
![Page 9: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Table 2: Monthly use/possess arrest rates for emphatamines and narcotics, Janurary 1995 - September 2007
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-
95
Jul-9
5
Jan-
96
Jul-9
6
Jan-
97
Jul-9
7
Jan-
98
Jul-9
8
Jan-
99
Jul-9
9
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
Jan-
04
Jul-0
4
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Use/possess narcotics
Use/possess amphetamines
Amphetamines and narcotics use/possess
![Page 10: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Correlations, use/possess amphetamines and narcotics
0
50
100
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400
1995
/Jan
1995
/Jun
1995
/Nov
1996
/Apr
1996
/Sep
1997
/Feb
1997
/Jul
1997
/Dec
1998
/May
1998
/Oct
1999
/Mar
1999
/Aug
2000
/Jan
2000
/Jun
2000
/Nov
2001
/Apr
2001
/Sep
2002
/Feb
2002
/Jul
2002
/Dec
2003
/May
2003
/Oct
2004
/Mar
2004
/Aug
2005
/Jan
2005
/Jun
2005
/Nov
2006
/Apr
2006
/Sep
2007
/Feb
2007
/Jul
2007
/Dec
Possession and/oruse of narcoticsPossession and/oruse of amphetamines
r = -0.39
r = 0.80
r= -0.58
r = -0.38
r = -0.38
Correlations
![Page 11: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Methodological issues
• Narcotics use/possess as a proxy for heroin?
• Are use/possess arrests a good indicator for drug use?
• When did the heroin shortage start?
• Is narcotics use centred around different locations than ATS use?
![Page 12: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Map of narcotics arrests
![Page 13: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Map of amphetamine arrests
![Page 14: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Types of analysis• Vector autoregression
– Whole of NSW
– High use LGAs: Sydney, Marrickville, Bankstown, Liverpool, Fairfield, Wollongong, Newcastle
• ARIMA regression– Entire time period (Jan 1995 – Sept 2007)
– After first drop (Mar 1999 – Sept 2007)
– After onset of ‘heroin shortage’ (Dec 2000 – Sept 2007)
– Period of heroin drop (Mar 1999 – Apr 2002)
![Page 15: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
VAR Results – High use LGAs
Lag Coefficient (with standard error) p-val Coefficient (with standard error) p-val1 0.012 (0.091) 0.894 -0.033 (0.076) 0.6642 -0.012 (0.108) 0.914 -0.006 (0.080) 0.9413 -0.154 (0.112) 0.168 -0.086 (0.078) 0.2704 -0.010 (0.109) 0.358 0.088 (0.079) 0.2615 0.098 (0.092) 0.289 0.056 (0.075) 0.456
Narcotics model Amphetamines model
VAR Results – NSW Lag Coefficient (with standard error) p-val Coefficient (with standard error) p-val1 -0.076 (0.090) 0.398 -0.092 (0.076) 0.2232 0.017 (0.107) 0.870 0.029 (0.080) 0.7143 -0.244 (0.107) 0.023 0.005 (0.077) 0.9494 -0.097 (0.109) 0.377 -0.075 (0.077) 0.3325 0.199 (0.094) 0.035 0.028 (0.072) 0.694
R-squared = 0.348
Narcotics model Amphetamines model
R-squared = 0.268
![Page 16: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Results - ARIMAModel 1
Jan 1995 - Sep 2007Model 2
Mar 1999 - Sep 2007Narcotics 0.079 (0.090) 0.055 (0.105)Constant -0.368 (1.354) -2.470 (1.705)AR(1) -0.367 (0.055)* -0.384 (0.061)*AR(3) -0.136 (0.069)* -0.158 (0.080)*
Model 3 Dec 2000 - Sep 2007
Model 4 Dec 2000 - Apr 2002
Narcotics 0.020 (0.086) 0.105 (0.264)Constant -1.793 (1.833) -6.366 (4.601)AR(1) -0.264 (0.106)* -0.366 (0.149)*AR(3) - -
![Page 17: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Summary and discussion
• No evidence of drug substitution was found
• Although ATS use increased after the ‘shortage’, this is part of a long term increasing trend
![Page 18: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Amphetamines use/possess, 1995 – 2007
y = 1.0394x + 57.049R2 = 0.7579
0
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Jul95
Jan96
Jul96
Jan97
Jul97
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Jan99
Jul99
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Jan01
Jul01
Jan02
Jul02
Jan03
Jul03
Jan04
Jul04
Jan05
Jul05
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Possession and/or use of amphetamines, NSW Linear (Possession and/or use of amphetamines, NSW)
Reported incidents
![Page 19: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research Did the heroin shortage increase amphetamine use in NSW? Lucy Snowball, Steve Moffatt, Don Weatherburn and](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022062305/56649d485503460f94a24894/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Summary and discussion
• No evidence of drug substitution was found• Although ATS use increased after the
‘shortage’, this is part of a long term increasing trend
• Rather than focusing on heroin and supply reduction policies, need to focus on ATS use and how this can be reduced
• Note that these results hold for NSW only