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 1 

Tue, 08

8 Nov, 2016

 

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Tue, 08

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8 Nov, 2016

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malnutrition, y. In dealing can take the ttle China’s

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5  

40 per cent can be smaller vessels such as missile boats, fast attack craft, patrol boats, amphibious landing ships and logistic support vessels. Against this requirement, the navy has just 140 vessels today, of which barely half are capital warships. The admirals say they need 24 frigates, the workhorses of any navy, but are ten short of that requirement. Worse, they see no way of making up these deficiencies by 2027.

India’s only two yards that build capital warships — Mazagon Dock Ltd, Mumbai (MDL) and Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers, Kolkata (GRSE) — are stretched to capacity. MDL is building four destroyers and four frigates, while the smaller GRSE is constructing three frigates and two corvettes. Meanwhile, the largest defence shipyard, Hindustan Shipyard Ltd (HSL), and the smallest one, Goa Shipyard Ltd, have never built capital warships — a lacuna the defence ministry should purposefully address, but does not. The same is true for two private shipyards — Larsen & Toubro’s Kathupalli Shipyard, and Reliance Defence and Engineering’s Pipavav Shipyard — both of which have world-class facilities but are yet to demonstrate that they can build high-tech warships.

With so many facilities idling, small wonder the defence ministry has clutched at Moscow’s offer of four half-built frigates, variants of six Talwar-class vessels already in the navy’s fleet. This band-aid, while perhaps inescapable, provides little assurance about who will build seven “next generation corvettes” in the pipeline, or the “next generation destroyers” and “next generation frigates” on the drawing board.

A simultaneous focus must ensure full operational capability in warships in service. For varied reasons, including the blacklisting of prospective vendors, crucial vessels have worrying operational gaps. Torpedoes have not been procured for the Scorpene submarines; several capital warships are dangerously vulnerable to enemy submarines for lack of “advanced towed array sonar”; and a five-year delay in inducting the Indo-Israeli Long Range Surfaceto-Air Missile has left several frigates and destroyers without adequate defences against anti-ship missiles, their primary threat. A 127-millimetre anti-aircraft gun for warships remains stalled since the company that builds it is blacklisted. As one admiral grimly observes: “Without all these systems, our new platforms will serve only to provide target practice to the enemy.”

Thirdly, focused attention is needed on procuring “naval multi-role helicopters” to be deployed on capital warships for airborne early warning, anti-submarine warfare, (added comma!) and search and rescue. These choppers significantly extend a warship’s bubble of influence, especially its ability to detect and destroy enemy vessels. For decades, Indian warships deployed the Westland Sea King-42B chopper, but the fleet atrophied rapidly once the parent US company, Sikorsky, imposed sanctions on spare parts after India’s nuclear tests. Now, ironically, Sikorsky is riding renewed US-India defence relations by offering S-70B multi-role helicopters. So urgent is the navy’s need that India might have no choice but to grit its teeth and forgive Sikorsky.

The fourth focus area must be fleet-support ships, essential for a “blue water navy” to operate far from the mainland. Fleet support ships carry the logistics support — such as fuel, stores and repair facilities — that sustain a naval flotilla on long deployments. The navy currently makes do with four such vessels: Two 27,500-tonne fleet tankers, Deepak and Shakti, built by Fincantieri and commissioned in 2011; INS Jyoti, a 35,900-tonne Russian oiler commissioned in 1996; and INS Aditya, a 24,600-tonne replenishment and repair ship delivered by GRSE in 2000. To add to this capability, HSL is required to build five 40,000 tonne “Fleet Support Ships”, with technology transferred by Hyundai Heavy Industries. An inter-governmental agreement with South Korea is moving at a leisurely pace that must be expedited. Similarly, impetus must be given to the construction of four “multi-purpose vessels” (MPVs), for which private and public shipyards were invited to bid last year. These 4,000-5,000 tonne vessels are jack-of-all-trades, used for varied tasks such as logistic support, HADR missions and towing targets — all essential for effective naval functioning.

Finally, we must focus on quickly beginning the construction of six submarines under the longdelayed Project 75I. This will boost the submarine arm, which dwindled to just 13 boats, when INS Sindhurakshak sank after an explosion in 2013. Some relief is on hand with six Scorpene submarines entering the fleet by 2021. Yet, expensively acquired submarine building skills are atrophying on MDL’s idle production line while the government dawdles over sanctioning Project 75I. This mirrors events in MDL in the 1990s and early 2000s,

 

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8 

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8 Nov, 2016

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9  

has lagged behind and probably needs more progress and attention, in relative terms, is the economic relationship.

Has the defense partnership been the latest game-changer?

Our defense partnership with India is among our most important in the world. Under the Defense Technology and Trade Initiative, we're working to co-develop and coproduce new defense technologies, including jet engine technology, to support India's indigenous defense sector. Our aircraft carrier working group marks the first time the United States has lent support to another country's indigenous carrier development program. We hope to see a day in the not-too-distant future when the U.S. and Indian navies including aircraft carriers operate side-by-side to promote maritime security and protect freedom of navigation for all nations.

How has the cooperation on terror, particularly in India's neighbourhood, progressed?

I firmly believe that a better future for the region for the prosperity and security of both countries, as well as for our own interests in the region comes via dialogue and communication, even on the most difficult issues. Indeed, perhaps it is most important on the most difficult issues. We look forward to better relations between India and Pakistan.At the same time, we've been very clear about the threat posed by terrorism in the region. We have repeatedly expressed our concerns regarding the danger that cross border terrorism poses to the region, including the September attack in Uri.We have extended our condolences to the victims and their families.Let us be clear: the United States is committed to our strong partnership with the Indian government to combat terrorism, and supports the Indian government's right to defend itself against terrorism.I also want to note that since his inauguration, Prime Minister Modi has made significant and important efforts at fostering a much needed dialogue between the two nations.However, it is clear that militants in the region clearly do not want this dialogue to proceed, and we recognize that in the aftermath of terrorist attacks, dialogue is difficult.Ultimately, we support any and all positive steps by India and Pakistan to resolve their disputes. Despite the current tensions, we continue to believe the best way forward is through continued communications between India and Pakistan. On Kashmir, the pace, scope and character of any discussions on Kashmir is for India and Pakistan to determine.

How can India and the US work together for stability in the AsiaPacific and Indian Ocean region?

President Obama clearly said India can be an anchor of stability and security in the Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean region. The signing of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) in August was a big step in this direction. India now conducts more military exercises with the United States than with any of the other 23 countries that India holds bilateral exercises with.

What does India have to do to attract more US investments?

Today, the United States is India's best trade and investment partner.This is a good start, but we have room for significant growth. A highstandard Bilateral Investment Treaty would not only help India attract more U.S. capital and technology, it would also help India attract investment in projects targeting the world's export markets.Despite the progress in improving business climate, further reforms are required to attract increased capital flows including making it easier to start a business, obtain construction permits, gain access to credit, and protect minority investors. India must also ensure that regulatory requirements are transparent and consistently enforced, and continue to improve protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights.

Where can the ties go from here under the new administration?

The partnership is anchored on the premise that our two democratic, pluralistic, and secular societies share many of the same attributes and aspirations. There are over 3.4 million Indian-Americans living in the United States. Our partnership with India will grow based on broad, bipartisan support.

 

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to Jammu and beyond are now war zones, where the population on the Indian side spent their Diwali either sheltering from Pakistani mortar and small arms fire in ad hoc bunkers in their villages, or as refugees under the open skies in depth areas outside the range of Pakistani mortar fire, 82mm of the paramilitary Pakistan Rangers periodically intermixed with heavier 120mm mortar bombs, unmistakably of the Pakistan Army, the latter an unmistakable indication of the active involvement of the Pakistan Army.

The Indian forces are responding in kind, and in progress now is a linear, middle-intensity, standoff exchange of fire in J&K, along the international border as well as the LoC, involving the paramilitary Border Security Force on the Jammu border and the Indian Army on the LoC. There are reports that the Indian Army has also stepped in and destroyed four Pakistani border outposts in a “fire assault” after an infantry patrol of 17 Sikh clashed with fidayeen infiltrators in the area, and lost one of its members, injured and “mutilated” (in this particular instance beheaded), after capture by intruders fleeing back to sanctuaries inside Pakistan. The whole incident, particularly the cold-blooded savagery of beheading a wounded prisoner, was typical of the Pakistan Army.

Conceptually, these attacks with their emphasis on ferocious brutality towards a “kafir” opponent are in consonance with the basic philosophy of the “Quranic Concept of War” enunciated by Brigadier S.K. Malik of the Pakistan Army, in his book of the same name, which prescribes “frightfulness” to terrorise the enemy, and is said to be recommended reading encouraged in the armed forces of Pakistan. The civil population in the border areas of J&K are experiencing this “frightfulness” at first hand, which at last count has killed and wounded over 100 Indian inhabitants of border villages in the Jammu region, including women and children. Indiscriminate violence against non-combatant civilians on the Indian side of the border will remain a feature of the “hot peace” in J&K, and has become a permanent feature of India-Pakistan relations. This seems unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, as Chanakya, national security adviser to first Mauryan emperor Chandragupta, might have mused 2,000 years ago when faced by attacks of barbarian tribes coming out of Central Asia — “Atah Kim? (What now)”? The answer visualised at that time in the distant past would perhaps have been the same one which remains applicable and operative even today — immediate and vigorous punitive retaliation, a policy which must remain unchanged in today’s age.

Active confrontation with Pakistan along the LoC in Kashmir during the “hot peace” is neither new nor unprecedented, and dates right back to Independence and the Partition. But what has been a new feature in J&K this time has been the extension of the free-fire zone hitherto restricted to the LoC held by the Indian Army to a belt along the international border in the Jammu-Sialkot region held by the BSF. Under normal circumstances, the international borders are held by border-guarding forces and not the military, but circumstances in Kashmir are far from normal now after the killing of “terror poster boy” Burhan Wani of the Hizbul Mujahideen, and the accelerating cascade of events thereafter from the Pakistani ingress at Uri and the “surgical counter-strike” by Indian Special Forces across the LoC. From experience and long-term institutional memory, India is aware that this has always been the correct policy to deal with a Pakistan controlled by a radicalised amalgam of military-jihadi forces. Every attempted fidayeen infiltration, or hit-and-run raid by Pakistani composite “border action teams”, has to be hit and hammered hard, whether on Indian territory, or, by India’s “hot pursuit” actions into Pakistan, so that the “terror of war” is injected into that country in equal measure. But, as matters stand, India lacks the appropriate “fire and forget” type of irregular forces with which to carry out “reverse fidayeen” strikes from India into Pakistan, a revealing commentary on a socio-political culture that appears hesitant to ruthlessly stamp out pro-Pakistan terrorist movements inside this country like the “Indian Mujahideen” or “Students’ Islamic Movement of India”, but lacks the will and the motivation to create an “Indian fidayeen”, if necessary by “ideological reverse engineering”, to give Pakistan a dose of its own medicine by turning the knife-edge of “death by a thousand cuts” onto its originator.

The “fidayeen” concept of religion-crazed zealots embracing martyrdom as suicide-bomber or active shooters resonates throughout the history of political Islam, from drug-crazed “Hashishin” whose targeted killings held the Islamic world to political ransom in the 11th century. However, this presents complex philosophical and ideological contradictions in the secular Indian socio-religious environment. The philosophy of Sarvepalli Radhakrishnan in his The Hindu view of life diverges entirely from the “kafir” — centric exposition of The

 

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15  

But these don’t appear to impress the West very much these days. The West has grown wary of the speed of Chinese acquisitions of Western assets and investment. In reality, stiff Western resistance to China’s galloping ambition to penetrate its finances, capital and industrial production has begun, as seen in the recent blocking of $39 billion of European and Australia-centric acquisitions.

Understandably, both Brussels and Berlin began to thwart Beijing’s bid to take over high-profile Western assets worth $39 billion since mid-2015. Most of these are learnt to “have fallen foul of competition and security concerns” due to the asset’s proximity to sensitive military facilities. Matters have come to such a pass that some Western governments are considering enactment of new rules and regulations to tackle Chinese deals and acquisitions.

From Bern to Berlin, Brisbane to Boston, the world is learning afresh how to handle the China factor. The Swiss are apprehensive about their agri-business Syngenta; the Germans about semiconductor giant Aixtron; the United States about insurer Genworth Financial’s purchase by the conglomerate China Oceanwide for $2.7 billion, and San Diego’s landmark Hotel del Coronado, that is located next to a sensitive American naval base.

The Germans, in particular, are openly hardening their line on Chinese investors. Berlin is trying to block company takeovers by Beijing-based investors, fearing its prized technologies will end up in Chinese hands. Berlin is also pushing for new EU rules to let member states “protect companies in strategic sectors from Chinese approaches linked to the Chinese state”.

While some European experts don’t approve of this “protectionist backlash” by the Germans against a wave of Beijing deal-making, that peaked in 2016 with the 4.5-billion euro acquisition by Chinese appliance maker Midea of robot maker Kuka, one of Germany’s most innovative firms, Berlin remains unconvinced. It feels this is a Chinese state-directed bid to gain access to German technology, rather than being about Germany as an investment destination. The red line seems to have been drawn by the West: “this far and no further”.

This stiff opposition by the West to the Chinese spree for assets has, therefore, compelled Beijing to abort 11 big-ticket acquisitions in the last 16 months, thereby resulting in a foiled deals worth approximately $39 billion. In other words, this is equivalent to 14 per cent of China’s overall overseas investment in the corresponding period — July 2015 to October 2016.

A few questions come to mind. Did the Chinese have a premonition of the impending opposition to their bids to take over Western assets and sustained offshore investment enterprises? One cannot of course say it for sure, but the timing of the announcement of the proposed $46-billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor in April 2015 gives rise to such thoughts.

Why? One has to understand the fundamentals of economics: idle excess/surplus liquidity of the state is bad economics. It has to be invested and/or recycled. Money circulation is the need, not stagnation, which in turn leads to prosperity and generates cash. Therefore, if thwarted in the West, why not invest and clinch and try inch forward elsewhere — and why not in Asia itself, in the confluence of South Asia, West Asia and Central Asia? Why not explore the hitherto unexplored landscape passing through a perennial landlocked war zone, adjacent to raw material sources of Afghanistan, an enchanting strategic geography of Pakistan and the wealth-generating, consumer goods-purchasing magnetic market of India? Indeed, is not the destructive reality of war and the creation of wealth been traditionally the two sides of the same coin since time immemorial? Thus, if the West stymies a $39-billion bid for a Chinese takeover of its assets, the investment-starved East may welcome a $46 billion capital infusion by Beijing. That is exactly what seems to be emerging.

The proposed $46 billion Chinese investment that will pass through the badlands of Pakistan, and Indian territory that falls within Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, is unlikely to be without its trials, turbulence and tribulations. That may be why the de facto ruler of our neighbouring state on the west, the Pakistan Army, has taken the lead CPEC role, virtually compelling its de jure civilian administration to play second fiddle to the generals. China too, after being thwarted by the West, is not complaining. China has, in fact, no reason not to rejoice.

The Pakistan Army’s business-minded generals have smelt cash, commerce and profits as a new vista of opportunity opens up for them rather than for the Pakistani state, that falls underneath. The generals have

 

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8 Nov, 2016

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17 

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18 

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