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TRANSCRIPT
John Maynard Keynes Edition
Nova Economics Club Publication #10 – June 2016
NEC TALKS
with
Mário Centeno
June 2016
Contents
Editorial p. 1
June in Review p. 2
NEC Recommends p. 3
NEC Talks with Mário Centeno p. 4
News – ―Future Leaders‖ peddy-paper p. 6
John Maynard Keynes p. 7
NEC Statistics p. 10
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Editor: Miguel Costa Matos Deputy Editor: Tiago Alves Design: Beatriz Braz Review: Miguel Costa Matos June in Review &
NEC Recommends: Miguel Costa Matos, Patrícia Filipe, Sofia Pessoa and Tiago Alves NEC Talks: João Cortes, Miguel Costa
Matos, João Matias and Márcia Silva Pereira News: João Cortes Statistics: Alexandre Carvalho, Alexandre Gouveia, Beatriz Braz,
Diogo Conceição, Francisco Gonçalves, Gonçalo D‘alte, João Cortes, João Matias, João Mendes, Lucas Silva, Margarida Martins,
Matheus Coelho, Miguel Amaro, Rodrigo Barrela, Tiago Alves and Tiago Rabaça Economist of the Month: Guilherme Azambuja
Dear reader,
First things first – let me apologize for the delay in
getting this edition to you. NEC is run by students
who volunteer and when exam season hits, we
necessarily face the crunch. Nevertheless, this
edition is quite a treat – its patron is John
Maynard Keynes, and it includes an interview
with the Portuguese Minister for Finance, Mário
Centeno. We also give continuity to our usual
sections including a review of the month‘s news
and of the top articles by leading economists that
you can catch up on.
It is worth reflecting on Keynes and his legacy 80
years from the publication of the General Theory
of Employment, Interest and Money. Far too
many pages have already been spent debating
Keynes‘ influence on economic science.
Veritably, Keynes‘ influence was crippled early on
by Paul Samuelson‘s ―neoclassical synthesis‖
which distorted Keynes‘ teachings. This tradition
of usurpation has been time-honored by New
Keynesians, who work from an essentially
neoclassical framework and add some frictions to
it. This is the realm of fact – I leave it to the
reader to judge it good or bad.
The true test of Keynes‘ influence is not that the
state has any role to play in the economy, or if it
grows counter-cyclically. It is instead whether we
admit to the existence of involuntary
unemployment, whether we accept that economic
future is really unknown, whether we understand
that demand drives and shapes supply, and
whether we comprehend that people‘s liquidity
preference can neuter markets by slowing down
money.
Keynes called his theory ‗General‘ in contrast
with the case of self-regulating, perfect-
information, perfect-competition markets taught in
economics classes. These markets are so
bizarrely implausible that one might think they
were drawn up as straw men, deliberately to be
put down, but their resilience has been
extraordinary. Keynes was not the first to point
out that classical economics was theorizing on a
market that didn‘t exist. The German school of
thought, led by Friedrich List, called Smith and
Say‘s economics ―Cosmopolitical‖ because it was
thought as if there were no nations. It is
worthwhile to consider once more whether the
economics we are taught tells us anything more
than special facts for special worlds that don‘t
exist.
Last week the EU decided to impose sanctions
on Portugal and Spain, leaving France scot-free
―because it is France‖ and Germany unpunished
for its excessive trade surplus. Keynes here too
was prescient. The Macroeconomic Imbalance
Procedure harkens back to Keynes‘ call for an
International Clearing Union that taxed trade
surpluses. It did so automatically, free from these
power games that make the European Union so
unequal in dishing out carrots and sticks.
Eight years on from the global financial crisis, we
are still in crisis. Our ‗dismal science‘ has, it
appears, not only failed to help but actively
contributed both to cause the crisis and prolong
it. 80 years later, we might begin to ask if we
might not be better off if we had listened to
Keynes after all.
Miguel Costa Matos Editor-in-Chief, NEC Newsletter
Nova Economics Club Monthly Newsletter
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Editorial 1
June 2016
June in Review
Nova Economics Club Monthly Newsletter
2
1st Australia‘s economy grew at its fastest pace in four years in the first quarter due to a surge in exports. A
weakening Australian dollar has prompted growth in service exports, which is also helping the economy
transition form the mining boom.
7th
Dynamic scoring in action: Obama budget would raise taxes and increase economic growth. However, while
total growth would be higher, per capita growth would be lower since immigrants would have, on average,
lower income than existing residents.
8th
Japan‘s economy grew 1,9% in the first quarter, more than the government initially reported.
More countries within the European Union want some powers returned from Brussels, back to national
governments.
9th
Mario Draghi, European Central Bank president, stepped up his call for Europe‘s political leaders to make
root-and-branch reforms of their economies to create more jobs, warning them it was their duty to save the
region from its ageing crisis.
10th
Pedro Kuczynski, an economist, declared victory for Peru presidency after narrowly prevailing over the
populist Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of an imprisoned former president.
Barack Obama officially endorsed Hillary Clinton to succeed him as president, after Bernie Sanders
signaling that he would soon bow out of the Democratic nomination contest.
12th
A man stormed a gay nightclub, wielding an assault rifle and a pistol, and carried out the worst mass
shooting in United States history, leaving 50 people dead and 53 wounded.
16th The Bank of Canada, the country‘s central bank, revealed that it was working with the country‘s biggest
banks to develop an electronic version of the Canadian dollar.
17th British MP Jo Cox is murdered outside her surgery over her support of immigrants, just days before Britain
votes to leave the EU.
20th
The unexpected resignation of highly admired governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Raghuram Rajan,
unsettles many investors and weakens Mr Modi‘s economic credibility.
21st
Brazil‘s telecommunications giant Oi filed for bankruptcy protection, revealing the extent of the economic
crisis the country is suffering, expected to be the worst in a century, and unleashing shockwaves on the
market.
22nd
The ECB reinstates Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Greek banks, as tensions thaw. The next step
towards normal relations between Greece and the ECB is inclusion in the QE programme, expected in
September.
25th
Just 24 hours after deciding to leave the European Union, the U.K. started to absorb the financial
ramifications of its shock decision. U.S. ratings agency Moody's announced that it had lowered its outlook
on the country's credit rating from stable to negative.
27th
Trade partners must consider how the current political realities of trade can be managed more effectively,
since the era of transactional trade-centric globalization is coming to a close and a more sustainable,
investment-focused chapter is set to begin.
28th
Mario Draghi says central banks around the world should align their monetary policies to help prevent
"destabilizing spillovers" between economies growing at different paces.
Although in the short run this change will bring some important negative consequences, in the long run,
there will be more winners than losers. The country should eventually end up richer and disparities of wealth
will be less extreme.
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Nova Economics Club Monthly Newsletter
A guide to the ECB’s corporate bond purchases In June, the European Central Bank launched its latest bid to stimulate the eurozone economy and lift inflation by buying corporate bonds. Use this guide to understand the latest escalation of the aggressive monetary policy easing from central banks worldwide since the 2008 financial crisis.
China’s New Silk Road Into Europe Is About More Than Money Beijing‘s multibillion-dollar plans to build overland and maritime links across Central and South Asia — whether that means huge investments in Pakistan or gas pipeline deals in places like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan — grab the lion‘s share of attention. This report assures that the ultimate prize in the Silk Road plan — also known in China as the ―One Belt, One Road‖ initiative — is someplace else: Europe. Evolution Not Revolution: Rethinking Policy at the IMF This interview with new IMF Chief Economist, Maurice Obstfeld puts the evolving policy perspectives of the IMF into the limelight. Long gone are the days of the Washington Consensus, it appears, with evidence-backed policy being the driving tone for this pleasant and insightful read. Fragile States Index 2016 For 12 years, the Fragile States Index, created by the Fund for Peace and published by Foreign Policy, has taken stock of the year's events, using 12 social, economic, and political indicators to analyze how wars, peace accords, environmental calamities, and political movements have pushed countries toward stability or closer to the brink of collapse. The full results of this year‘s index can be found here. Innovation is not enough Dani Rodrik is intensely concerned with making countries grow, especially in the developing world. Here, Rodrik gives us a survey of how technological innovation might be hampering growth not just in the developing world but in advanced economies. An issue worth mulling over. Economics Struggles to Cope with Reality Noah Smith discusses the various types of macroeconomics being used lately and how they have becomes less able to cope with reality. His solution isn‘t new or uncontroversial – more macro-focused micro that reveals insights into how markets work in reality. A good place to get a glimpse of how Macro is changing. Market disintegration as a pre-cursor to the Great Divergence Despite being credited with many inventions of the early
modern era, China failed to develop in line with Western Europe at the start of the 19th century. This column suggests that one reason for this was that China‘s economy was more fragmented than that of Europe. Data from 1740-1820 shows that, in terms of market integration, the Great Divergence was well under way decades before the start of the 19th century. Inequality in Germany: How it differs from the US This column debates the main differences between inequality in Germany and in the US, showing data from 1990 on and offering some explanations for the facts. Brexit: The Morning After Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman argues that Brexit consequences will be bad, but not as bad as many are claiming. This column discusses the main economic, financial and political costs of Britain leaving the EU. Capital hill Jeb Hensarling, chairman of the Financial Services Committee, wants to replace the Dodd-Frank act, the sprawling overhaul of America‘s financial system instituted in the wake of the crisis of 2007-08, with something much simpler. Read more about the Republicans alternative to America‘s convoluted bank regulation in here. Credibility of central bank(er)s Both the Fed and the ECB appear to have been effective in the way they have applied policy during the financial crisis. However, the environment in which the two have operated is quite different. Read more about the implication of the macroeconomic mixes applied on the credibility of the central bank(er)s, their ability to stimulate aggregate demand, and prevent it from achieving its inflation objective, in this column. Bail-in versus bail-out: the Atlante example from a systemic risk perspective ―In a bail-in scenario, the troubled bank‘s default affects its neighbours through a shock in their default probabilities derived from contagion effects. However, after a while, the bank system reaches a new equilibrium without the defaulted bank and, thus, is affected by less contagion risk. In a bail-out scenario, the troubled bank does not default and, thus, does not affect its neighbours through a shock in their default probabilities. However, it continues to be part of the system, so that all the other banks in the network will still be affected by the high contagion tisk derived from its presence.‖ If you want to know more about which banks benefit more from a bail-in or bail-out scenario, read it here.
NEC Recommends Articles and Trends to watch
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Nova Economics Club Monthly Newsletter
NEC TALKS
Mário Centeno
Cortes, Matias, Matos e Pereira What economic
impact does Brexit have for Portugal and Europe?
What policies does Portugal have planned to react
to this circumstance?
Centeno Brexit constitutes a structural change in
the European Union. In this way, beyond its
immediate impact on the stock markets, which was
greater in many cases than the Lehman Brothers
crisis, there will be a long period of adjustment. The
European and British economies will watch a
redefinition of business operating in these two
economic spaces. With displacements, new
investments and a strong impact on trade flows.
Portugal‘s reaction must be thought in the context of
the European Union.
Cortes, Matias, Matos e Pereira Should there be
more flexibility for European countries to have their
own fiscal policies? Should we treat equally what is
different?
Centeno Each countries‘ fiscal policy should
contribute to reducing the area‘s aggregate risk.
This policy should be complemented by other
measures of risk-sharing. This is the big debate in
Europe today. Up until now we‘ve made headway
on regulating risk reduction and very little on the
second dimension [risk sharing]. The existence of a
larger European budget that covered some of the
national risks, like unemployment, could be a first
policy towards that objective.
Cortes, Matias, Matos e Pereira The Portuguese
banking sector demonstrates some fragility. What is
the main challenge – lack of capital, low spreads,
negative interest rates, or anemic demand for
credit? And what is the solution?
Centeno The Portuguese banking sector is not
immune to the difficulties faced by Europe‘s entire
banking sector. Among these difficulties is a
business model that did not adapt to low interest
rates. Our economies are not designed to live for
prolonged periods in this interest rate regimen.
Beyond this, our banking sector needs to keep
adjusting its capital levels and seek new business
models, but none of these problems are particularly
or exclusively Portuguese.
Cortes, Matias, Matos e Pereira The budget has
been enacted for 3 months now, and preparations
for the next one are underway. What lessons do you
take forward for future budgets?
Centeno Budgets are always very demanding
exercises, which require Public Administration to be
conscious of the permanent need to adjust to the
constraints that are binding on the Portuguese
economy. The 2016 budget reflects that and the
2017 budget will do the same. With the experience
of 2016, we learnt that we need to conduct a
spending review to help better define policy
measures and their budgetary needs. We have
begun this exercise in many sectors of the Public
Administration already.
(continues on the next page)
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Nova Economics Club Monthly Newsletter
NEC TALKS
Mário Centeno
June 2016
Cortes, Matias, Matos e Pereira Currently, we observe that firms invest in financial products instead of investing in productive capacity – a phenomenon many call financialization. Do you consider this problematic, as it may lead to profits not materializing in increased demand? Centeno In modern societies and economies, the capacity and speed of financial integration brought huge possibilities for regions and sectors to finance themselves when they otherwise would remain excluded from this process. However, this occurred without us taking into account the risks, which brought with it more frequent financial crises, though these are nonetheless far from a novelty. With each crisis, we learn a little more and we are now more able to reestablish growth in more solid foundations. We should pay attention to what microeconomics teach us about incentives and agent‘s information so that we can protect ourselves from these risks. If we do this, we ascertain the conditions for demand to be enhanced in a sustainable way. Cortes, Matias, Matos e Pereira You were a researcher and now you‘re a Minister. What advice would you give to young economists, both those who want to do research and those who want to do policy?
Centeno Research and policy should be intimate
with each other. Two words of warning: there is no
good policy without 1) good data; or 2) good
economic theory. In Portugal, we underrate the first
a lot and glorify too much the latter. We must have a
more balanced approach.
A culture of statistical analysis begins, for instance,
when we see a football match, and should be
extended to the way we analyze the labour market.
With the same instruments. After, we add to this
economic theory. Essential. But we ought not to
want our articles‘ abstracts to be transposed into
law. We must challenge them incessantly against
data and the social and economic reality to which
they apply. Always with lots of modesty, translated
in the idea that sometimes it is better to have an
excellent compromise than an excellent theorem. In
policy, not in theory.
Questions by
João Cortes
João Matias
Miguel Costa Matos
Márcia Silva Pereira
Edited by
Miguel Costa Matos
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Nova Economics Club Monthly Newsletter
News
Peddy-Paper ―Future Leaders‖
June 2016
6
In the past 4th of July, Nova Economics Club organized a peddy-paper dedicated to the ―Future Leaders‖, led by
NEC members João Cortes and Beatriz Braz. Thanks to the support of more than 20 current Nova SBE students it
became possible to make this experience reality.
The peddy-paper was formed by 10 groups, each group with a different path and a ―Group Leader‖, current Nova
SBE student volunteering in the activity, who knew nothing, just as they did, except perhaps a little further the rules.
The groups had to find the 10 posts spread throughout the campus. Each post had another volunteer, the ―Post
Guardian‖, who would give an economical question and a hint for the next post.
It remains for us now only to thank once more all those who could make this dream a reality and hope that the future
leaders don‘t forget this experience and keep it with the same happiness we do. NEC and our organizers members
give thanks for the help in organizing the event to Beatriz Frazão, Beatriz Gonçalves, Diogo Firme, Diogo Saul,
Filipe Baião, Francisco Caldeira Fernandes, Gonçalo Bacelar Lopes, Gonçalo Mendes, Henrique Gameiro, Leonor
Zôrro Gonçalves, Maria Margarida Cruz, Mariana Anastácio, Mariana Pires, Matilde Simões, Pedro Mota, Raquel
Carvalho, Ricardo Tavira, Rita Marques and Tiago Bernardino.
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“The introduction of a substantial Government transfer tax on all transactions might prove the most serviceable reform available” 1936
It wasn‘t until the end of the Great Depression that one
of the most influential economists of the 20th century
became a household name in fields such as
macroeconomics, public spending and monetary policy
among others.
John Maynard Keynes was a bright mind from
Cambridge, born in 1883 in a middle class family. He
graduated from Kings College in Cambridge, with a
degree in mathematics and went on to serve in
government as a civil servant, where he gathered data
that would later be used in ―Indian Currency and
Finance‖, published in 1913.
He returned to Cambridge very shortly in 1908 as a
lecturer, before taking up a role at the Ministry of
Treasury, where his reputation and ideas would grow in
support. By 1919 Keynes was the main Treasury
representative at the peace conference in Versailles.
He wasn‘t satisfied with the treaty and shortly after
resigned and returned to Cambridge to teach. Later
that year he published ―The Economic Consequence of
Peace‖ where he expresses his take on the peace
negotiations and what should have been different.
In the 1920s, Keynes was a firm believer in the quantity
theory of money. His writings on the topic were
essentially built on the principles he had learned from
his mentors, Marshall and Pigou, summarised in his
1923 ―Tract in Monetary Reform‖ and 7 years later in
the ―Treatise on Money‖. He strongly believed in the
central bank‘s control of interest rates as a way to
stabilize price levels, based on the principle that people
often save more than is actually being invested.
In 1933 at the height of the Great Depression, Keynes
made another publication titled ―The Means to
Prosperity‖ which provided policy recommendations to
tackle unemployment in times of global recession. This
was definitely a huge contribution to the world of
economics bearing in mind rampant unemployment at
the time, and its wider effects on the economy.
Keynes‘ general theory of employment, interest and
money came to be published in 1936. According to
Keynes teachings, the best thing to do during
depressions was either to come up with public
substitutes for deficiencies of private investment or to
enlarge private investment. As Minsky puts it, Keynes‘
main message was that during a depression, there is
no wage low enough to eliminate unemployment.
Instead, unemployment had to be resolved by
stimulating aggregate demand.
The contributions of John Maynard Keynes did not end
there. As World War II began to wind down, he played
a significant role in the Bretton Woods negotiations in
1944. Along with others, Keynes advocated for the
establishment of a world central bank and an
international currency regulation body, and he was
instrumental in the formation of what would become the
World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
It was at Bretton Woods that he proposed Bancor, a
global currency to encourage the stabilization of
commodity prices and achieve global trade balance
through taxation of current account surpluses, and not
just penalizing trade deficits. Although not adopted, this
idea – as well as many other of Keynes‘ ideas - have
periodically bubbled back to the surface for renewed
discussion up to the present day. His ideas have had a
lasting impact and remain one of the most influential to
date.
Guilherme Azambuja
NEC member
John Maynard Keynes Economist of the Month - June
Nova Economics Club Monthly Newsletter
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June 2016
Nova Economics Club Monthly Newsletter
John Maynard Keynes Economist of the Month - June
“The completeness of the [orthodox] victory is something of a curiosity and a mystery. It must have been due to a complex of suitabilities in the doctrine to the environment into which it was projected. That it reached conclusions quite different from what the ordinary uninstructed person would expect, added, I suppose, to its intellectual prestige. That its teaching, translated into practice, was austere and often unpalatable, lent it virtue. That it was adapted to carry a vast and consistent logical superstructure, gave it beauty. That it could explain much social injustice and apparent cruelty as an inevitable incident in the scheme of progress, [with] the attempt to change such things as likely on the whole to do more harm than good, commended it to authority. That it afforded a measure of justification to the free activities of the individual capitalist attracted the support of the dominant social authority. But although the doctrine itself has remained unquestioned by orthodox economists up to a late date, its signal failure for purposes of scientific prediction has greatly impaired, over the course of time, the prestige of its practitioners. For professional economists…were apparently unmoved by the lack of correspondence between the results of their theory and the facts of observation; a discrepancy which the ordinary man has not failed to observe, with the result of his growing unwillingness to accord to economists that measure of respect which he gives to other groups of scientists.”
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June 2016
Nova Economics Club Monthly Newsletter
John Maynard Keynes Economist of the Month - June
“If, however, we are tempted to assert that money is the drink which stimulates the system to activity, we must remind ourselves that there may be several slips between the cup and the lip.”
“The whole of the labor of the unemployed is available to increase the national wealth. It is crazy to believe that we shall ruin ourselves financially by trying to find means for using it and that safety lies in continuing to maintain idleness.”
“But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean is flat again.”
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NEC Statistics Economic Overview
Nova Economics Club Monthly Newsletter
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Interbank Lending Market Month 2016 Overview (2010 – 2016)
Rate Unit APR MAY JUN Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Min Max
EURIBOR 3-month Rate (close), ∆ bps -0.25 -0.26 -0.29 1,8 bps 8,9 bps 10,2
bps 4,5 bps -0,29 (2016/M6) 1,60 (2011/M7)
EURIBOR 6-month Rate (close), ∆ bps -0.14 -0.15 -0.18 1,3 bps 43 bps 9,4 bps 5,1 bps -0,18 (2016/M6) 1,82 (2011/M7)
LIBOR 3-month Rate (close), ∆ bps 0.63 0.68 0.65 4,2 bps 29 bps 1,6 bps 2,4 bps 0,22 (2014/M4) 0,68 (2016/M5)
LIBOR 6-month Rate (close), ∆ bps 0.91 0.99 0.93 8,9 bps 31 bps 6,5 bps 2,3 bps 0,32 (2014/M5) 0,99 (2016/M5)
Eonia Rate (close), ∆ bps -0.34 -0.33 -0.32 6,2 bps 0,5bps 22 bps 1,4 bps -0,34 (2016/M4) 1,715 (2011/M6)
Portugal Month 2015 2016 Overview (2010 – 2016)
Indicator Unit MAR APR MAY Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Min Max
GDP YoY, % - - - 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.9 -4.5 (2012/Q4) 2.5 (2010/Q2)
Unemployment Rate % 12.1 12.0 11.6 11.9 11.9 12.2 12.4 11.3 (2010/M1) 17.5
(2013/M1)
Employment Rate YoY, % 0.3 0.3 - 1.5 0.2 1.6 0.8 -5.6 (2013/M1) 2.5 (2014/M7)
Personal Saving Rate % of avg.
income - - - 4.9 4.1 4.2 - 4.1 (2015/Q3)
10.6
(2010/Q1)
Exports YoY, % - - - 7.1 4.0 2.3 2.2 0 (2012/Q4) 10.3
(2010/Q1)
Imports YoY, % - - - 12.0 5.1 4.3 4.6 -12.4 (2011/Q4) 13.0
(2010/Q2)
Coverage Rate (Exp/Imp) % of imports - - - 94.6 95.3 95.9 93.8 76.5 (2010/Q2) 101.4
(2013/Q1)
Public Debt % GDP - - - 128.6 130.
5 128.
8 128.
9 86.2 (2010/Q1)
132.8
(2014/Q1)
Economic Activity Indicator YoY, % 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.6 -4.5 (2012/M1) 1.7 (2010/M5)
Industrial Production Index Avg. 2010 =
100 99.0 98.7 - 99.6 94.8 95.6 97.0 79.6 (2013/M8)
105.3
(2011/M3)
Consumer Price Index YoY, % 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 -0.7 (2014/M7) 4.0 (2011/M4)
Private Consumption YoY, % - - - 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.9 -6.1 (2011/Q4) 3.4 (2010/Q2)
Public Consumption YoY, % - - - 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.9 -3.9 (2011/Q3) 0.9 (2015/Q4)
Gross Fixed Capital
Formation YoY, % - - - 5.2 2.0 -0.9 -2.2 -19.9 (2011/Q3) 8.6 (2015/Q1)
Euro Area Month 2015 2016 Overview (2010 – 2016)
Indicator Unit MAR APR MAY Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Min Max
GDP YoY s.a., % - - - 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 -1.1 (2013/Q1) 2.8 (2011/Q1)
Consumer Confidence
Index Long-term avg.
= 100 100.5
100.
5 100.7
100.
1 100.
8 100.
9 100.
6 97.7 (2012/M11)
101.2
(2015/M3)
Business Confidence Index Long-term avg.
= 100 100.3
100.
3 100.4
100.
4 100.
4 100.
5 100.
4 98.8 (2012/M10)
101.6
(2011/M1)
Public Debt % GDP - - - 92.4 91.8 90.8 91.7 80.0 (2010/Q1) 92.7
(2014/Q2)
Unemployment Rate % 10.2 10.2 - 11 10.7 10.5 10.3 9.9 (2011/M4) 12.1
(2013/M3)
Net Exports €, Billion - - - 66.5 68.4 69.3 60.6 -12.7 (2011/Q2) 77.5
(2014/Q4)
Consumer Price Index YoY 0 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0 -0.6 (2015/M1) 3 (2011/M9)
USA Month 2015 2016 Overview (2010 – 2016)
Indicator Unit FEB MAR APR MAY Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Min Max
GDP YoY s.a., % - - - - 2.7 2.1 1.9 2.0 0.6
(2010/Q1) 3.1
(2010/Q3) Consumer Confidence
Index Long-term avg. =
100 100.
7 100.5 100.4 100.4
100.
9 100.
6 100.
6 100.6
96.8
(2011/M9) 101.1 (2015/M2)
Business Confidence
Index Long-term avg. =
100 99.2 99.6 99,6 99,7 99,9 99,6 99,1 99,2
98,49
(2016/M1) 101,7 (2015/M2)
Public Debt % GDP - - - - 101,
3 100,
5 104,
2 105.7
87,0
(2010/Q1) 105.7 (2016/Q1)
Unemployment Rate % - - - - 5,4 5,2 5 4,9 4,9
(2016/Q1) 9,8
(2010/Q1)
Net Exports $, Billion - - - - -
519,3 -
530,4 -
519,9 -506.8
-464,3
(2013/Q4) -615
(2012/Q1)
Consumer Price Index YoY, % 1 0,9 1,1 1 0 0,1 0,5 1,1 -0,2
(2015/M4) 3,9
(2011/M9)
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NEC Statistics Financial Markets Overview
Nova Economics Club Monthly Newsletter
11
June 2016
Currency Pairs Month 2015 2016 Overview (2010 – 2016)
Pair (Spot) Unit APR MAY JUN Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Min Max
EUR/USD Close price 1.145 1.113 1.110 0,35% 2,82% 4,84% 2.43% 1,046 (2015/M3) 1,494 (2011/M5)
EUR/GBP Close price 0.784 0.769 0.833 4,09% 0,37% 7,89% 5.15% 0,694 (2015/M7) 0,908 (2011/M7)
EUR/JPY Close price 121.9 123.2 114.5 1,75% 2,47% 1,94% 10.60% 94,1 (2012/M7) 150 (2014/M12)
EUR/CHF Close price 1.099 1.106 1.084 4,43% 0,15% 0,66% 0.87% 0,843 (2015/M1) 1,489 (2010/M1)
EUR/AUD Close price 1.506 1.539 1.491 10,14% 6,71% 0,28% 0.49% 1,160 (2012/M8) 1,659 (2015/M8)
USD/JPY Close price 106.4 110.6 103.1 2,07% 0,35% 6,48% 8.37% 75,57 (2011/M10) 125,9 (2015/M6)
USD/CAD Close price 1.256 1.308 1.296 6,72% 4,09% 6,20% 0.24% 0,941 (2011/M7) 1,386 (2015/M12)
GBP/USD Close price 1.461 1.448 1.333 3,60% 2,47% 2,82% 7.20% 1,384 (2016/M2) 1,719 (2014/M7)
AUD/USD Close price 0761 0.724 0.745 8,89% 4,01% 5,19% 2.90% 0,683 (2016/M1) 1,108 (2011/M7)
Commodities Month 2015 2016 Overview (2010 – 2016)
Future 05/16 Unit APR MAY JUN Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Min Max
Brent Oil $ p. barrel, close 47.4 50.5 49.7 25,6% 23,6% 8,2% 23.3% 28,0 (2016/M1) 126,6 (2014/M6)
Natural Gas $ p. MMBtu,
close 2.18 2.32 2.92 12,0% 16,9% 16,2% 49.2% 1,69 (2016/M3) 8,97 (2010/M1)
Aluminum $ p. ton, close 1673 1546 1646 4,9% 4,5% 0,7% 8.5% 1444 (2015/M11) 2764 (2011/M4)
Copper $ p. lb., close 2.28 2.10 2.20 10,5% 9,0% 2,3% 0.7% 1,94 (2016/M1) 4,71 (2011/M2)
Nickel $ p. ton, close 9417 8399 9410 13,1% 15,3% 3,3% 10.7% 8393 (2016/M5) 28977 (2011/M2)
Zinc $ p. ton, close 1934 1920 2102 15,6% 4,8% 13,2% 16.1% 1552 (2015/M11) 2499 (2011/M2)
Gold $ p. ounce,
close 1291 1218 1321 4,9% 4,9% 16,6% 6.8% 1045 (2015/M12) 1953 (2011/M9)
Silver $ p. ounce,
close 17.8 16.0 18.6 6,9% 4,9% 12,3% 20.1% 13,6 (2015/M12) 50,9 (2011/M4)
Platinum $ p. ounce,
close 1078 983 1024 15,8% 1,8% 9,5% 4.7% 811 (2016/M1) 1938 (2011/M8)
Government Bonds Month 2015 2016 Overview (2010 – 2016)
Bond Unit APR MAY JUN Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Min Max
Portugal 2-Year Gov. Bond Yield (close), ∆ bps 0,69 0.52 0,61 1 bps 21 bps 23 bps 21 bps -0,01 (2015/M6) 21,7 (2012/M1)
Portugal 10-Year Gov.
Bond Yield (close), ∆ bps 3,16 3.08 3,09
58
bps 14 bps 24 bps 31 bps 1,51 (2015/M3) 16,5 (2012/M1)
Germany 2-Year Gov. Bond Yield (close), ∆ bps -0,48 -0.51 -0,65 2 bps 9 bps 13 bps 16 bps -0,58 (2016/M3) 1,96 (2011/M5)
Germany 10-Year Gov.
Bond Yield (close), ∆ bps 0,27 0.15 -0,13
18
bps 4 bps 48 bps 28 bps 0,05 (2015/M4) 3,51 (2011/M4)
US 2-Year Gov. Bond Yield (close), ∆ bps 0,78 0.88 0,57 2 bps 41 bps 34 bps 15 bps 0,15 (2011/M9) 1,18 (2010/M4)
US 10-Year Gov. Bond Yield (close), ∆ bps 1,84 1.85 1,48 34
bps 23 bps 50 bps 32 bps 1,38 (2012/M7) 4,01 (2010/M4)
Thank you for reading! Enjoy your summer!
Nova Economics Club – Newsletter team
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