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NFTRH 577 – For personal use only; not to be redistributed without permission 1

Notes From the Rabbit Hole ©

Alice and the characters of Wonderland; illustration by Jessie Wilcox Smith

https://nftrh.com NFTRH 577 November 17, 2019 This Week…

! I am going to go out on a limb here and claim that this is the report, the 577th report in the 11th year of service, that knocked me over the head above all others. There may be a little bit of hyperbole in that statement because there have been 577 of these things, averaging 60+ pages and well, my memory may be a bit hazy over all that time and all those words.

! For all of 2019 we have been tracking the Semiconductor sector’s positive signals

against the stuff the mainstream watches and its more negative signals. In other words as the Trade War jitters ease and the world has not fallen apart there are holiday punch bowls to be enjoyed… and enjoy them casino patrons are likely to do. It’s the opposite of Christmas Eve 2018 when casino patrons were drowning in their spiked eggnog while the machines tanked the market.

! Long story short, party on Garth, party on Wayne. Party on man, woman,

machine, casino patron, substance user and party on Ma & Pa! It looks like a good old fashioned manic event developing since the Bull Turnstile was crossed. Anything can happen and risk management is always in play but last week firmed the short-term view. We form a time frame for the party’s end as well.


Table of Contents

Regular Segments Wrap Up (summary): 3 Opening Notes (intro segment): 4 US Stock Market: 6 US Market Internals: 11 Global Stock Markets: 15 Commodities: 27 Precious Metals: 31 Currencies: 49 Market Sentiment: 50 NFTRH+ Charts & Notes: 53 Portfolio Notes: 73 Additional Segments


Wrap Up (a basic summary based on conclusions from work done in this week’s report)

! US Stock Market: Last week: “We are another week above the “bull turnstile”, which was the 2nd approach of point #5 of the SPX weekly chart reverse symmetrical triangle.”

! “Daily SPX and its fellow headline indexes had been in bullish ascending

triangles and these won out. The breakout is in effect as long as it is in effect and the market has the look of a developing mania.”

! “Every man, woman, machine, ma & pa and casino patron on the planet sees the

breakouts. FOMO is brewing among the holdouts and shorts are burning their britches.”

! “This is not my preferred climate. An example of the preferred climate to take a

bullish view was Christmas Eve 2018, which was a climactic downside event. Its opposite seems to be in play as we approach 2019’s holiday season. It’s out of hand, outside of apparent fundamentals and valuations and carries a contrarian bearish sentiment structure, just as Q4 2018 and to a less degree summer 2019 carried contrarian bullish ones.”

! And so, your letter writer goes full frontal casino patron with a ‘Q4 2019

opposite Q4 2018’ view for only as long as it lasts. Gut tells me to be out of the play by late January if not sooner. Of course, I will never go full bore bubble head and so cash will be managed, profits taken, re-seeded, balanced, etc.

! Market Sentiment: Over bullish. Next…

! Global Stock Markets: In tow with the Good Ship Lollipop AKA the US markets.

Targets are established as Garth parties on thus far.

! Commodities: The question is whether or not the reflation stuff will get a boost here in Q4 along with the regular stock stuff. Items like Materials and Financials are looking prospective, and commodities should play in that ballpark. Thus far, it’s still only in bounce mode, however.

! Currencies: Last week: “USD down. USD up. Annoying and not yet actionable in

either direction.” This week: USD up. USD down. Annoying… a decline in USD could accompany a global party if it lurches forward in Q4. If it rallies again, not so much, although US Goldilocks would not be ruled out.

! Precious Metals: Last week: “Correction still on and in its decline vs. stocks gold

is pushing limits. Other funda still firmly in normal pullbacks. Watching for a late Q4 low.” I don’t see much reason to change this view. Weekly chart of Gold/SPX adds more definition to correction potential in Au/SPX. Big picture the macro is still intact to positive precious metals outcomes in 2020.


Opening Notes: Bull Turnstile In June the S&P 500 held the 200 day moving average on a correction and climbed above the 50 day average. Corrections in August and October drove SPX back below the SMA 50 in a couple shakeouts before it propelled back above that marker, also in October. Given that the market’s major trends were up the bull had the benefit of the doubt every step of the way and a bear view would carry the burden of ‘prove it!’. The bears did not prove it. Despite deplorably over-bullish sentiment the market continued on its way last week and…

Here is the situation…

• With a 2nd firm weekly close above the turnstile it is obviously not a quick bull trap. It is a breakout, whether soon to be ill-fated or not.

• Market sentiment is horrific if you are a contrarian. But unfortunately, we TAs (or

at least this TA) are not going to be able to provide a handy target or caution point because the market just busted through the caution point (#5). A simple measurement shows the potential for 3600. Not a typo.

• Now the prospect of manic bubble blow off is in play. It’s not a prediction, but a

look back at US stocks in 2000, Uranium in 2006, Oil in 2007, Silver in 2011 and so on. These things stop when they stop and all the predictions in the world, all the rationale about negative fundamentals will not stop it until it is ready.


All year as we evaluated the up trending market for potential signs of failure or more upside and operated in line with bullish trends. The primary fundamental indicator (other than the potential of Trump deciding to pump the market at any time he would so desire by changing the news) that I was able to see that gave caution against a bear stance was the Semiconductor sector and its likelihood to bottom in 2019. It’s been leading all year and as the front end of the SOX>NDX>SPX leadership chain, we had to respect it.

Now we find ourselves riding along with the other manic bubble heads as TAs left and right flip bullish, NAAIM investment managers flip bullish, Newsletters amp up bullish and momentum and associated FOMO whip up. Looking at the chart above, why, its bullish! But we can view the developing spike as a potential opposite to the down spike into the 2018 Christmas Eve massacre. As such, a 3600 target does not seem so insane, does it? It’s dangerous out there… and it’s bullish! Staying balanced (not so much with shorts, but with varied sectors, countries, assets and cash) feels about right, for now.


US Stock Market If we are on a roughly ‘equal and opposite’ theme to the 2018 Christmas Eve massacre, when man was drowning his bearish sentiment in a punch bowl while machine tanked the market in a climactic finale then it does not appear to be a long-term thing, this developing bull mania. Now, dialing in the lunatic 3600 potential target noted above, we can realistically project SPX to around 3215 based on the daily chart’s ascending triangle measurement. Regardless, in the short-term everybody is and has been bullish. Period.


The crazy measurements come into play as noted above, with the Christmas Eve 2018 lows roughly measured to the breakout points of the various indexes. The weekly charts show the situation developing. Blue sky for everybody. Party on Wayne, party on Garth. Lest I completely discount this extreme targeting I keep in mind a corresponding objective for a holding of mine, GOOGL, of 1600. Crazy, I know. https://nftrh.com/2019/11/07/googling-a-lumbering-11-profit/


Financials are bullish, Healthcare made its move off a still-bullish situation, Industrials and Materials are still fine and along with Financials seem to think the reflationary thing will continue short-term (USD did get knocked down a bit to close the week). Internet is still a curious and conspicuous bearish thing amid the party atmosphere (I still hold FDN short, along with AMZN).


And there goes Medical Device, never having abdicated leadership on its big picture. BioPharma and Airlines are making downtrend spikes and DEfense hits a new high along its uptrend.


Transports are neutral with a positive bias, Staples are consolidating and overbought, Discretionary also consolidates and could be a bit suspect, relative to the go-go areas at least. Retail is still pushing its bounce from a downtrend and Homies are still somewhat overbought in their uptrend.


US Market Internals Market internal indicators (bearish, neutral & bullish).

• SPX & NDX new highs/lows spike with the markets and while still at a small negative divergence to price are not an issue.

• Discretionary vs. (defensive) Staples is neutral with a negative bias.

• SOX>NDX>SPX leadership chain retains its fully bullish indication. What’s

more, Semi Equipment, which leads Semi burst bullish last week.

• Transports still a moderate divergence to Dow, but improved.

• Inflation signals faded last week but still appear to be in bounce mode with long-term yields, TIPs ratios, Breakevens and gold/cyclical asset ratios still in bounce mode. Silver/Gold ratio hung about even after making a negative signal the previous week.

• Cyclical (industrial) metals (incl. copper) vs. gold pulled back last week but

are still considered in ‘bounce’ mode. The larger trend remains down and macro-negative. See charts next page.

• Palladium/Gold ratio was on watch for a downgrade last week and with

another hard negative week it is now neutral.

• As noted last week: “SPX/Gold ratio pushing the limit now. If gold continues to correct and the stock market continues to go up this indicator would soon be undone.” Still bouncing, but not yet undone.

• Growth stock vs. Value stock breakdown still in effect, short-term at least.

• KBE/SPY ratio and 10yr yield each fade a bit but still considered in ‘bounce’

mode.

• SPX price caught up to its bullish Advance/Decline line. No divergence.

• XVG (median of 1700 stocks) still buoyant, but still conspicuously under performing the headline indexes. Neutral at best.

• Nominal Junk bonds are near the highs while Junk/Treasury and

Junk/Investment Grade ratios still bouncing (within downtrends). Not bullish, but not yet a negative signal either.


This is what the cyclical, potentially inflationary macro scenario looks like from a metals perspective. Not compelling, but not yet broken either. Daily chart…

While the weekly chart portrays this as little more than a bounce after the decline and counter-cyclical signal in 2019 amid the Trade War hysterics. Now, Trump can fix the Trade War issue the moment he begins to prioritize the election. But will these signals fully recover? All we can do is observe and obey. Right now the situation is counter-cyclical but with a bounce in play.


Daily charts of US sectors vs. SPY show Financials constructive above the moving averages, which could imply firmer interest rates ahead. Energy appears to have been so thoroughly played into 2014 that the hype is still being shaken out. Still little interest. Healthcare on the other hand is making a good move within its relative downtrend, as are Industrials. Materials are weaker and Tech leadership is still firm enough.


REITs abdicated their leadership trend for now, perhaps in another sign of firmer long-term yields. Utes carry the same message as risk flies back ‘on’ in markets. Relative Transports are mostly neutral, the Biotech move does not look so impressive here but at least it’s above the SMA 50 (that’s something). Medical Device leadership has not quite taken back the baton and relative Retail has not yet given up the SMA 50.


Global Stock Markets When an indicator makes this dramatic a move it is worth watching, as BDI was on the way up (along with gold). These led global markets and the commodity/resource ‘reflation’ trades. Today it’s a negative divergence in its leadership. Period.

World (ex-US) faded vs. the US even as inverse USD bounced (USD pulled back). But the relationship should resume holding fairly true going forward, up or down.


I continue to be interested in Japan (currently holding SCJ & FANUY), especially if this ratio continues to rise.

ERUS was added back last week as it pulled back from overbought and its ratio to the US market maintained its uptrend.

Meanwhile, China/Asia positions (BABA, TDF) are still held despite this.


Last week we noted a target of 50 for the World. On Friday it made a move from a flag in the direction of a next leg up, which could yet bring on 50.

We noted 74 as a target on AAXJ. The pullback was sharp last week but it’s still on plan, technically.


Last week we noted Australia was bullish above the SMA 50 and that is still the case.

China A-Shares test the breakout from a trend line and more importantly, the up-sloping moving averages.


India continues to be bullish as it tries to reassert its uptrend. The SMA 50 is turning back up to join the SMA 200, which had stayed that way.

Last week we noted that the previous Friday’s bearish engulfing candle implied more S/T downside. ✔, and this could be a buy opportunity for Brazil bulls at the SMA 50.


France is still on plan for the 6100 target projected last week.

CDNX continues to go in the dumper and with tax loss season in full swing the pressure could stay on for a few more weeks.


Germany has an improbable sounding target of 13,900.

EEM made a hard pullback toward the moving averages where EM bulls might consider buying. The play needs a weakening USD most likely.


Last week: “I am seriously thinking of taking another well-earned profit on Russia. It’s bullish and trending up but it’s again overbought.” Profit taken a little late and then position bought back again as the global party kicks in. It helps not to be paying commissions on day trader style trades like this.

Swiss iShares is still well and bullish, possibly moving up from a bull flag.


FM is now firming the constructive stance we had on it at the moving averages.

China large caps got slammed last week. Not broken, however, but more suspect now.


Last week we measured a target of 33 and HEZU still lurks just beneath that level. If Germany (DAX) is going to 13,900 then HEZU would greatly exceed 33. So who’s telling the truth?

Nikkei is still bullish (and also flirting with a long-term base breakout). I am still constructive on Japan and looking for more positions (and seeing some nice charts, which I’ll try to highlight going forward).


Still holding the Japan small cap sector.

As per last week “Sweden is still in blue sky, near its measurement of 1100.”


Canada got with the global party and hit a new high last week.

John Lennon might say of the FTSE 100 “he’s a real nowhere man…”


Commodities (daily charts unless otherwise noted) CRB index held the moving averages and as such still has a chance to change its trend from down to up. For now, it’s still a bounce.

Dr. Copper’s bounce faded but held the SMA 50.

While’ Doc’s bros in the IM patch got hammered. That is not nice cyclical signaling.


Palladium as well got hammered again. And it looks like a bear flag forming.

Platinum fared better as it touched the SMA 200 and ultimately held support.

The weekly chart makes the point that Platinum bulls should be paying attention here because the 860 to 880 area is a real battle zone for this would-be bottomer.


Oil was firm as we await what is a normal seasonal low in December.

Gas illustrates once again why I leave it alone. It just carries too much drama for my taste. Breakout, failure. Breakout, failure. I think that there are commodity operators who watch and play this crap all day long and they can have it.

Uranium fund could get interesting. It had another hold of the SMA 50.


And here is a fairly prospective looking U miner chart. Trends are still down on the Us, however.

Lithium fund is still intact to a bounce. I had to dump SQM on its fade below the SMA 200, however. No tolerance for stories right now. Not yet.

Finally, copper miner FCX is still holding up. This week will be interesting. I’m holding it as long as the macro bounce view for Q4 holds up and pending the SMA 200 on FCX.


Precious Metals

• Commitments of Traders improved (for silver more than gold) but still have a way to go on their trends to a lower risk setup https://nftrh.com/2019/11/15/gold-and-silver-cot-improvement-as-expected/

• Gold’s ‘real’ price as adjusted by the CRB index is fully bullish on the long-term

and still in consolidation downward on the short to intermediate-term. It’s fine gold bugs.

• Gold is in a strong uptrend as adjusted by global currencies and is fully bullish on

the long-term and still in consolidation downward on the short to intermediate-term. It’s fine.

• Targets for gold of 1420 and silver of 16.20 still look reasonable into what would

be a normal seasonal low in December. The issue continues to be bulling stock markets. For instance, Gold/DJW has filled a gap from July. Fine. But if stocks continue to steam upward and gold continues to correct the damage to the ratios to global and US stocks would bring the correction from the current routine (frankly, I’ve been more bored than antagonized by it) to something more painful.

Transitioning to Gold/SPX ratio, let’s use a weekly chart to do a mental exercise on where this correction in gold and mania in stocks may ultimately lead in the near-term. Let’s do this with the understanding that markets – and especially the precious metals – tend to push limits in their gyrations.


So, will the pullback in Au/SPX (and Au/DJW for that matter) be a neat and orderly thing that allows gold bugs to comfortably avoid second guessing themselves? Maybe not. What it may well do is test their souls, which is what the best corrections in the precious metals do. They test your very soul and your heart of hearts! So for the sake of argument, could Q4 2019 see a party atmosphere opposite to the Christmas Eve massacre while this ratio slams down to a marginal (as opposed to comfortable) higher low? While I am not going to predict it, I am sure as hell going to expect or at least allow for it.

Meanwhile, daily HUI/Gold ratio is still well intact. That can and often does change in a heartbeat. But right now the HGR is trending up and in a normal consolidation. Some quality miners (e.g. WDO.TO, SVM, etc.) have actually been making new highs.


Chartists like to draw lines on their charts that they suspect a stock or index will follow. So I suspect the black dashed line will be followed by HUI out there in the unknowable near-term future. That and whatever a cup of coffee costs will get you a cup of coffee. What I do know is that we have two primary target areas. The 1st is at the congestion of the 50% Fib, short-term lateral support, the green dashed trend line and the rising SMA 200. That’s a lot of support traffic. The 2nd is major support and a gap fill below 180. If things are to go bullish sooner than expected, that would be signaled by a rise and hold above the SMA 50 and a higher high to the late October high.


Finally, these two monthly charts illustrate HUI’s vulnerable extension beyond the Gold/SPX ratio and the still expected eventual target in the high 300s.


AEM still looks okay above the SMA 50. Patiently watching for would-be buy at 54 or lower (seems a long shot to hit the SMA 200 around 50, but…).

AG is still flying around above the SMA 50 despite silver’s fairly dramatic decline. Not bad signaling here for the sector.


Still waiting on the SMA 200 for AXU.

BTG is plucky in its hold above the SMA 50. I am holding it but only insofar as it does not weaken from here.


EDV.TO held the SMA 200, which was important. But the SMA 50 includes a lot of resistance from the summer. Holding.

“He’s a real nowhere man…” and that is just fine by me. Holding.


Royalty with more cyclical characteristics outperforming, which makes sense. Bullish.

You know, were this not the heaviest position my portfolios would somehow be at new highs right now (as it is, they’re near the highs) despite a host of mistakes I’ve made in the last several weeks. This precious metals correction and stock market bull phase, for which I’ve committed to balance, has really been a learning experience as a portfolio manager and proof that a balanced view can work well. Holding.


Still thinking about 14.50 in order to buy GOLD. Maybe the SMA 200 if I get grabby.

Well there’s the 1.15 marker we’ve expected. Now, can we do .95? Holding initial position and will have patience about adding.


What would bring this up trending leader down to 40? I don’t know, but I am not going to worry about it. I’ll either buy a hard drop, FOMO it and chase or just avoid. No clue yet.

MAG is trying to take back one level of lost support. The moving averages are heavy upon its head though. Watching.


Still holding MAI.V as it ambles along above the SMA 50. May add but no urgency.

MOZ.TO also holds the SMA 50 (and support) thus far. Holding.


Could be a bear flag that is trying to take out resistance. Watching this bloated senior as a sector indicator.

Troubled stock facing important support test. Not watching really.


I sold ½ the position here on the blast upward for fear of a ‘no news’ newsletter pump. Turned out its was Stansberry I think. Wish I’d sold it all. Holding.

Another silver stock defying its metallic product. Good job here as it tries to turn its trend up.


PIRGF added at the drop to the moving averages. I’ll not tolerate any lower.

Sector hype stock got creamed. It’s trying to bounce from support. Not really watching.


Prime time royalty play bouncing but on a bearish intermediate trend. Watching for lower levels beginning at the SMA 200 around 105.

SAND is still dealing with resistance within its gentle uptrend. Holding.


Holding the nicely consolidating SBB.TO and SGSVF. Still unsure about whether I’ll release the latter to trim a bit. But this seems fine to me.

I almost added SILV on Thursday but left it alone. Then it dropped 6%. Patience, eh? It needs to hold here or there is an air gap to the SMA 200. Trends are up by the way.


I have not had to touch the SSRM chart for weeks now. It’s just ambling between support and resistance. Holding this up trender.

Holding.


Holding remaining shares after partial profit-take. Firm uptrend.

Watching the up trending WPM. 24-25 is preferred.


Currencies US index finds resistance we drew in last week. Now it’s looking for support we drew in last week. Wash, rinse… it remains an inconclusive situation across the global currency game of Whack-a-Mole. Support and resistance areas are noted for the pairs.


Market Sentiment (graphics: NFTRH, Sentimentrader.com & Yardeni.com) Market sentiment is disgusting, and don’t you just love it? On Christmas Eve 2018 sentiment was beautiful. I loved it (and wish I’d have jumped in heavier than I did). But anyway, my point is that a potential (important word) setup for Q4 could be in play that simply sees the opposite dynamics of a year ago as SPX breaks out and VIX lays on the floor. It would probably have to break down to the sub-floor to get a real party going.

As it is, daily VIX is on a hard test of the floor.


Here’s a short-term positive for the bulls and that is a negative twitch for the NAAIM. They got a little wigged out, likely prior to Friday’s up day.

While smart & dumb money indicators check in with a dangerous reading.

The current risk view on several items.


Optimism is breaking upward from bull flag (ha ha ha) and pessimism is non-existent. These feelings among casino patrons will attend a market blow off and they are opposite to what was going on a year ago.

Newsletters were briskly bullish before the bullish end of the week. They are almost certainly more so now. They too are aligning properly for a potential year-end blowout.


NFTRH+ Charts & Notes (daily charts except as noted) If the market is going to go with the manic bubble scenario and an opposite reaction to Christmas Eve 2018 as currently appears the case then that is the game this segment is going to play while the party lasts (I anticipate through Q4 with much caution for Q1 2020). While I am not going to personally chase unleashed momentum already in play (e.g. FTNT, which we had on watch here for a buying opportunity but which I failed to initiate is now at all-time highs) there are items that have already made positive moves but project more upside and there are prospective bottom feeds and tax loss selling ‘buy’ opportunities. We do however, introduce one Japanese stock in blue sky that could bear further review as my Japan view remains positive, potentially for a long while if the long-term Nikkei base breaks out. I’ll also continue to show stocks that I am holding, even if in blue sky and even if the momo is brewing (e.g. GOOGL) but the focus for new opportunities will be those with potential unmet, rather than potential being met. So while NFTRH proper notes a dangerous sentiment backdrop developing it also notes bullish trends and the prospect of the opposite to December 2018 happening now. NFTRH+ takes that ball and runs with it along with all the other casino patrons because it is the reality of what is in play at this time. When that changes, this segment will change. AMAT, which we have tracked bullishly all year but on which I’ve long since taken the profit is now a leading indicator of a Semi sector that itself is and has been a bullish leading indicator for other areas. The bullish breakout was amplified last week.


Improbably, this short (one of only 2) is still looking pretty good below the moving averages. As a side note, if this persists we’ll view it as a negative divergence to the broad US market because it was a hype and price leader of the bull.

BABA dropped but grappled to hold support. Holding.


Medical Device company BAX was added as it recovered the SMA 200 as a potential gap fill situation. The concern is the coming financials restatement but I know this company indirectly from when I was in the real economy and it is a top player in the sector. So, keeping the leash tight but giving it a shot.

BIDU is of interest for its tax loss seasonal potential and for its bull flag that is dropping back toward support. Watching.


You can see my parameter on holding CBT. That is also where I’d be buying were I a postion-less CBT bull.

Similarly holding CFG.


Holding CIEN, although no actionable technicals in play yet.

Here’s a watch item in Healthcare breaking out.


I really did not have high hopes for CSCO on its results but had figured the downside would be minimal since it was bombed on its last Q results. It went down a moderate amount and I took a moderate loss. No biggie.

It is time I study DVAX more closely as I made a decision to just hold it many months ago. But as the expression goes, it looks like “shit’s about to get real here” and I want to know why. A hold of the SMA 200 and a clear of resistance would garner more attention.


I chickened out on ENPH and took a small profit because Citron Research made too much sense about why the solar companies are going to see valuation compression (i.e. entry into the space by the likes of Generac). But technically, this is still on plan although the original NFTRH+ buy was in the 15s.

Healthcare hype stock on watch here at notable support per the weekly chart.


Fanuc holds the SMA 50. Holding.

Old friend FARO slightly on watch in the event of a weakening dollar and trade war jitters easing. In other words, it’s a quality US manufacturing sector company that currently has no actionable technical signals in play.


Hey, I saw a constructive looking chart so I threw it up here.

Here is my other short, held as long as it stays below the SMA 50.


Thinking of adding to the FLY guy at around 18, which would conclusively fill the gap.

Holding FQVLF version of this stock (and FCX per Commodity segment) but want it to turn up now along with the other reflation trades out there.


I sold this one but it’s still constructive along with other shippers that I have on watch per a segment in NFTRH 574.

Okay, so I am a bubble head. GOOGL is at all-time highs and if the bubble holds up for a couple more months the target here is 1600. Holding.


Talk about a tax loss bottom feed. Talk about a stock with no actionable technical positives. Talk about Robbie the Robot! Holding.

Here’s the Japan stock that is in blue sky per the note above. I very much like this chart (640 would be a preferred buy). I want to look closer at this company because at the moment I have no clue what it is.


Here is the monthly version of the chart…

Fellow gold bugs will say “hey, dat looks like gold circa 2009!” and dey would be right. Gold then nearly doubled over the next couple of years.


So I sold NVDA too early. Show biz. I’d buy it back in the low 190s however, if the Q4 party keeps going.

I tell you I was watching this but then it popped. I was still watching it as it flagged again and it popped again. I am still watching it. Low 17s look best for a would-be buy.


Either OSUR is providing a buy opp. right here or it is going to fail. Watching.

A bullish looking Russian bank that I have not traded in a while (holding ERUS instead). But the trend is up and the pattern is constructive. Watching a bit.


Here’s the other Medical Device company I took a shot on (a little late as I dilly dallied after it was first highlighted here). The trend is up and tested the SMA 200 on a drop due to acquisition of Wright Medical. Holding.

Here is a Healthcare hype company in breakout mode. Somewhat on watch.


Every once in a while I get stubborn on a stock and refuse to sell it. This is one of those occasions.

Holding UEIC as it bull flags, probably to fill the gap.


VMW could be bought back if it clears the SMA 200 and does some good work to hold it. We’ll see.

Still slightly watching VZ as it pulls back in a flag along its uptrend.


If I was interested in WB before for its constructive look I am more interested in it now for its broken look… as long as it holds right here. Watching.

I am somehow a bit profitable on this stock that has not done a thing. Holding, although no actionable technical positives in play yet. Come on 5G/semiconductor hypesters!


Here is a little Cloud software related thing still on watch for silly season. A lot of tax losses here for post-IPO buyers. Watching.

New position Medical Device co. BEAT doing well so far after NFTRH+ highlight.

The charts above are mainly technical views of stocks I hold or am interested in (long or short). No recommendations are implied and your personal research is strongly recommended.


Portfolio Notes (Brokerage, Roth IRA & Trading) This segment has been abbreviated and simplified as of April, 2014. Normal portfolios may return* when new market trends are established that can be managed longer-term. The Speculation Portfolio (Roth IRA) was +152% from the 9.28.08 baseline at the time tracking was suspended (4.6.14). * This creates extra work in the form of tables and formatting and with reports that average over 30 50 pages, their value to the overall service is being evaluated. Note: (cost basis) includes commissions paid… Current Holdings (long): BABA (179.14), BAX (81.39), BEAT (43.69), BTG (3.44), CBT (48.15), CFG (37.09), CIEN (37.34), CWBHF (13.01), DVAX (4.05), EDV.TO (19.73), EMX (1.40), ERUS (42.66), FANUY (19.35), FCX (11.35), FLY (20.63), FQVLF (9.80), GBR.V (4.17), GOOGL (1186.96), GTBDF (5.56), IRBT (48.03), IRRZF (.98), KBE (44.86), MAI.V (.14), MOZ.TO (1.03), OSK.TO (2.50), PIRGF (1.53), SAND (5.74), SBB.TO (1.46), SBR.TO (.15), SCJ (72.69), SGSVF (1.23), SLV (16.53), SSRM (14.24), SUNM.V (.22), SVM (4.15), SYK (206.32), TDF (18.20, + Dividend/LT Cap Gains), TWTR (42.06), VLY (12.02), UEIC (50.51), WBA (59.29), WDO.TO (4.74) & XLNX (92.64) Current Holdings (short): AMZN (1715.86) & FDN (135.22). Bonds: SHY (also counted as ‘cash equiv.’) Cash/Equiv. level ranked as: High | Moderate High | Neutral | Moderate Low | Low Cash & equivalents level: FDRXX, SHV & SHY: Moderate High 2 weeks ago: “Cash to be increased or deployed further depending on whether the market realizes the risk or bulls further into it.” Bulls are furthering into the risk and the manic signal is short-term bullish. I’ll play, and manage cash closely all the while. * Cash & income-paying Equivalents are at levels that are right for me and my real-world situation. Your situation is different. Cash will be adjusted as needed. Refer to the Trade Log under the NFTRH Premium menu at nftrh.com for real time trade info, if interested (not that you necessarily should be). NFTRH is not to be distributed to third parties without prior written consent

Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH) is a weekly market report in which we provide analysis on financial markets. We make every effort to provide accurate and high quality content, but this analysis ultimately represents our opinions and these opinions are provided without warranty or guarantee of any kind. In no event will NFTRH.com or its owner, Gary Tanashian, be liable for any decision made or action taken by you based upon the information provided in NFTRH or at NFTRH.com.

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