not your father’s transportation system

background1. driving2. cars3. neighborhoods4. human infrastructure5. money

tactics1. networks2. parking 3. system integration

1. driving

vmt, per capita vmt, truck tsunami

U.S. population & vmt

pop vmt

1955 2005

millions trillions

166

0.6100

200

0.5

1.0

296

3.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

300

400

500500%178%

+ 9%

2000 - 2013all

vehicles

2006 - 2013

- 1%

allvehicles

Source: FHWA and US Census Bureau

US vmt

- 3%

2000 - 2013 2006 - 2013all

vehicles

- 6%

allvehicles

Source: FHWA and US Census Bureau

US vmt per capita

12% 18%

2000 - 2013

CO ID

22% 15%

MT WY

Source: FHWA and US Census Bureau

VMT Trends – Interior West States

- 8% - 5%

2000 - 2013

CO ID

8% - 3%

MT WY

Source: FHWA and US Census Bureau

Per Capita VMT – Interior West States

+ 9%

2000 - 2013all

vehicles

+ 6% + 34%

personalvehicles trucks

2006 - 2013

- 1%Source: FHWA

US vmt

allvehicles

- 3% + 22%

personalvehicles trucks

- 3%

2000 - 2013 2006 - 2013

- 6%

Source: FHWA and US Census Bureau

US vmt per capita

allvehicles

- 9% + 15%

personalvehicles trucks

allvehicles

- 5% + 19%

personalvehicles trucks

the truck tsunami

truck traffic in the west:economic growth + oil shipments

US – barrels/day

2009

21,000

2014

1,100,000

Source: FRA and AAR

oil by rail

not just millennials17

Source: United States Energy Information Agency

what drives vmt?demographics & economics traffic enablers

labor force participation rate

household income

driver license rate

vehicle ownership

population

miles of roadways

energy subsidy

road subsidy

sprawl

auto dependency

gas price($$/gallon)

(2014 dollars)

1984

Source: Census Bureau and BLS

US gas prices & personal income

2000 2014 1984 2000 2014

2.55

2.09

2.99

22.1

30.328.4

per capita money income($ thousands)

- 18 %

+ 43 %

+ 37 %

- 6 %

+ 17 % + 28 %

gas prices

3.2 %

October2013 - 2014

source: FHWA monthly Traffic Trends

traffic growth – month to monthwestern states

2.2 %

November2013 - 2014

3.3 %

December2013 - 2014

2.2 %

January2014 - 2015

6.6 %

February2014 - 2015

beware -short term vs. long term trends

vmt=

populationper capita vmt

X

19852015

US 2000 – 2013

+ 9%

vmt

+ 13%

transit ridership

source: FHWA and APTA

travel demand

2. cars

autonomous vehicles, sharing economy, on-demand services

autonomous vehicles

photo credit: Mercedes Benz, Daimler AG

impact of autonomous vehicles on freeway capacity: + 40%

autonomous vehicles roll-out

2015 2020 2025 2030

partially autonomous

vehicles enter market

fully autonomous

vehicles enter market

autonomous vehicles

dominate market

the sharing economy

photo credit: Charlier Associates, Inc.

Google Map – screen capture 2/25/15

bikeshare cities

car share companiesBuffalo CarShareCar2GoeGo CarShareFlexcarGetaroundJustShareItRelayRidesZipcar +WeCar by Enterprise Rent-A-CarUhaul Car Share owned by U-HaulAvis On Location by Avis

photo credit: Mariordo (Mario Roberto Durán Ortiz) - This file was derived from: 20120922_Volt-Chicago.JPG

car share arithmetic

(US Jan 1, 2013)

data source: The University of California, Berkeley's Transportation Sustainability Research Center

vehicles

15,603

members

1,033,564

on-demand services

on-demand services

Medicast

Handy

Uber Lyft

InstacartHomejoy

Washio

BloomThat

FancyHands

Shyp

SpoonRocket

Sidecar

TopCoder Elanceo-Desk

the vmt trend is cultural.we will drive less andwill own fewer vehicles

3. neighborhoods

complete + connected

1800 - 1900rural cities

1900 - 2000cities suburbs

2000 -suburbs neighborhoods

development patterns in US history

employment opportunity

+

quality of life

jobs & quality of life - 1900

jobs & quality of life - 1950

jobs & quality of life after 2000

photos: Charlier

Associates, Inc.

21st century emerging market =

access to good jobs+

walkable, complete, transit-served, neighborhoods

grocery-

coffee-

liquor-

home-

pharmacy-

school-

daycare-

church

------

home-------

gas station

complete incomplete

½mile

neighborhoods

4. human infrastructure

building for active transportation

“bicycles are vehicles”

photo credit: "BicyclePlymouth" by Chris 73 at en.wikipedia

human infrastructure

photos: Charlier Associates, Inc.

bicycling and scale

garage

condo garage

work

school

retail

park

1 mi1 mi 2 – 4 mi

primary corridor

photos: Charlier Associates, Inc.

5. money

the future of transportation funding

surface transportation

2002

81 73

2012Source: PEW Charitable Trust

public sector expenditures

10589

6256

$ 248 B$ 218 B

local

state

federal

- 12 %

options

fuel taxes

sales taxes

mileage fees

ppp

borrowing

economists’ choice, tech issues,privacy issues

illogical, regressive, politically popular

dwindling source, wrong incentives

requires fees or tolls and borrowing

slippery slope(see Boston MBTA)

near term options

fuel taxes

sales taxes

mileage fees

ppp

borrowing

the future

fuel taxes

sales taxes

mileage fees

ppp

borrowing

background1. driving2. cars3. neighborhoods4. human infrastructure5. money

tactics1. networks2. parking 3. system integration

1. networks

not facilities, not corridors

“network of networks”

region

multimodal grid

streets

local: 330’

collector: 1,320’

arterial: 5,280’

pedestrians330’

transit1,320’

bicyclesecondary corridor: 330’primary corridor: 1,320’

Portland, OR

networks

walkability public health safety service redundancy

market appeal resiliency efficiency capacity for

growth

pay huge dividends

doenact connectivity standardsbreak-up superblocksrepair key missing links

don’tallow more loops & lollipopspermit street closures for developmentlose your grid

2. parking

the goldilocks problem

• excess land in parking

• low business synergy

• bad for community character

• high capital costs

• discourages walking

too much

• discourages infill & redevelopment

• limits pedestrian presence

• reduces retail sales

• causes overflow conflicts

not enough

the goldilocks problem

the right

amount

integrated, strategic

enforcementmanagement

demand

supply

strategic approach

parking accumulation - traditional

6 am noon 6 pm

residential + office

residential

max

min

+ office

6 am noon 6 pm

parking accumulation - shared

strategic approach

integrated + intermodal

shift mode share

parking pricing

management program

add parking supply

enforcement

transit passesbicycle access

ridesharingwith TDM*

as needed

revenues

fair + inevitable

* TDM = transportation demand management

3. system integration

breaking down silos

tran

sp

ort

ati

on

$$$h

ou

sin

g$$$

pu

blic h

ealt

h

$$$

en

vir

on

men

t

$$$

en

erg

y

$$$

single purpose spending

Redmond WA

new street connection

transit center + housing

one-way pair conversion

new community park

new linear park + rail corridor trail

new paid parking + event space

wildlife preservation

streetstransit

parks & recreationarts

utilitieshousing

City of RedmondKing County, King County Metro

Sound TransitPuget Sound Regional Council

Washington State DOT

smart growthsustainability

complete streetstransit-oriented development

instead of conflict, synergy

tactics1. networks2. parking 3. system integration

example

transit-oriented development

networks

streets

local: 330’

collector: 1,320’

arterial: 5,280’

pedestriansresidential: 330’commercial: 660’

transit1,320’

bicyclesecondary corridor: 330’primary corridor: 1,320’

parking

streetstransit

parks & recreationarts

utilitieshousing

CityCounty

Transit AgencyMPO/Regional Council

State DOT

system integration

discussion

the future of urban transportation