not lflfa~ablf to foreign nationals · c01197689 withheld under statutory authority of the top...

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C01197689 Withheld under statutory authority of the TOP SECRET Central Intelligence Agency Act of 1949 (50 U.S.C., section 403g) WARNING NOTICE ·INTElliGENCE SOURCES OR MEl 0 S I NOT TO FOREIGN NATIONAlS THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED 25 March 1988 HEHORANDUH FOR: The Director _ of Central Intelligence SUBJECT USSR GENERAL STAFF ACADEMY LESSON: Agent Reconnaissance in Front Offensive Operations 1. The enclosed Intelligence Information Special Report is part of a series now in preparation, classified roP SBCR8'f, prepared in 1985 for use in the . General Staff Academy. I 25Xl, E.O.l3S26 I this document shou 1d b'-e--:-ha--nd 7 l=-e-d=----o_n_a __ s-=-t-r 7 i n-r-e-c 7 1-p 7 i e-n-:t.--'agen c 1es 1'Richard Deputy Director for Operations TS 1888283 Copy u_a_ ALL PORTIONS CARRY CLASSIFICATION AND CONTROLS OF OVERALL DOCUMENT Withheld under statutory authority of the Page 1 of 14 Pages Central Intelligence Agency Act of 1949 (50 U.S.C., section 403g) DECLASSIFIED UNDER AUTHORITY OF THE INTERAGENCY SECURITY CLASSIFICATION APPEALS PANEL, E.0.13526, SECTION 5.3(b)(3) ISCAP APPEAL NO. 2012-026, document no. 7 DECLASSIFICATION DATE: May 14, 2015 - JQP 5EeREr TOP SE.CRET

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Page 1: NOT lflfA~ABlf TO FOREIGN NATIONAlS · C01197689 Withheld under statutory authority of the TOP SECRET Central Intelligence Agency Act of 1949 (50 U.S.C., section 403g) WARNING NOTICE

C01197689 Withheld under statutory authority of the

TOP SECRET Central Intelligence Agency Act of 1949 (50 U.S.C., section 403g)

WARNING NOTICE ·INTElliGENCE SOURCES OR MEl 0 S I

NOT lflfA~ABlf TO FOREIGN NATIONAlS

THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED

25 March 1988

HEHORANDUH FOR: The Director _of Central Intelligence

SUBJECT USSR GENERAL STAFF ACADEMY LESSON: Agent Reconnaissance in Front Offensive Operations

1. The enclosed Intelligence Information Special Report is part of a series now in preparation, classified roP SBCR8'f, prepared in 1985 for use in the .

.-------------V~o~roshilov General Staff Academy.

I 25Xl, E.O.l3S26 ~ Ithis document shou1 d b'-e--:-ha--nd7 l=-e-d=----o_n_a __ s-=-t-r7i c-t=----n-e-e7d-~t:-o--7k-no-w---=-b-a-s7is-w-:i-:-t:-h-:-in-r-e-c71-p7i e-n-:t.--'agenc1es •

1'Richard F.~ Deputy Director for Operations

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ALL PORTIONS CARRY CLASSIFICATION AND CONTROLS OF OVERALL DOCUMENT

Withheld under statutory authority of the Page 1 of 14 Pages Central Intelligence Agency Act of 1949 (50 U.S.C., section 403g)

DECLASSIFIED UNDER AUTHORITY OF THE INTERAGENCY SECURITY CLASSIFICATION APPEALS PANEL, E.0.13526, SECTION 5.3(b)(3)

ISCAP APPEAL NO. 2012-026, document no. 7 DECLASSIFICATION DATE: May 14, 2015

- JQP 5EeREr

TOP SE.CRET

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WAJNING NOTIC!-INTEWGEHCE SOUIQS OR MEIHOQS INlfOI.VED NOT IEIEASAIU TO fOIIIGH NAJIO!WSJ \

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Withheld under statutory authority of the Central Intelligence Agency Act of 1949 (50 U.S.C., section 403g) ·

Distribution:

The Director of Central Inte~ligence .

The Director of Intelligence and Research Department of State

The Joint Chiefs of Staff

The Director, Defense Intelligence Agency

The Assistant to the Chief of Staff for Intelligence Department or the Army

Director of Naval .Intelligence Department of the Navy

The Assistant Chief of Staff, IntelligenceU. s. Air Force

Director, National Security Agency

Deputy Director of Central Intelligence

Deputy Director for Intelligence

Director of Soviet Analysis

Director of Scientific and Weapons Research

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NOT RflEASA8Lf TO FOREIGN NATIONALS

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SUBJECT

USSR GEHERAL STAFF ACADEMY LESSON: Agent Reconnaissance in Front Offensive Operations

C0 1197 689 . TOP SECRET

WARNING NOTiCE-INTElUGfNCf SOURCES OR MfTHOOS INV

THIS DOCUMENT HAY NOT BE REPRODUCED

Intelligence Information Special Report Page 3 of 1~ Pages-W ithheld under statutory authority of the

Central Intelligence Agency Act of 1949 (50 · U.S.C., section 403g)

COUNTRY USSR

DATE OF. DATE 25 March 1988 INFO. 1985

.r---------------

souRCE Documentary

Summary:

The attached intelligence report is a translation from Russian of the text of a lecture at the Voroshilov General Staff Academy on the subject of agent reconnaissance in support of military operations. The organization of the paper is rather loose and the treatment is somewhat anecdotal. Points are sometimes introduced without being developed. The lecture first mentions briefly some new developments in the field. including an "improveaent of TO&E" and an increase in size of reconnaissance units. This is followed by a list of the tasks for which agent reconnaissance is useful. and finally a discussion of planning and organization. Touches on various problems this type of reconnaissance faces and provides a very sober estimate of how effective it can be expected to operate •

.End of Summary

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AGENT RECONNAISSANCE IN FRONT OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS

[Top or page illegible.)

••• organization and conduct of agent reconnaissance [agenturnaya razvedka, or human-source intelligence] in a ~ offensive operation.

Order No. 00200 ot the Minister of Defense on combat and operational training, and the recent Order No. 0060 ot 1985, on the results of the exercises in the Baltic and Belorussian military districts note that work is currently being done in an adverse and dangerous international situation. The actions of the United States and its allies are beco•ing more aggressive. The United States is escalating military preparations and attempting to change the correlation of forces to its advantage. They are deploying intermediate-range missiles and cruise missiles in Europe which are suhz~nt!ally altering the correlation of forces and, in fact, these missiles are becoming [two words illegible]. Under these conditions, the COmmunist Party and the Soviet government are taking certain extra measures in order to improve the defense capability of the country and to increase the combat readiness of our Armed Forces.

Order No. 00200 states that the -adversary and -his possible scenarios of action at the beginning or a war must be analyzed in depth • . [For instance,] in preparing an attack and endeavoring to 4isrupt the organized deployment and commitment to war of our Armed Forces, the enemy will attempt first of_all to destroy the control system, missile troops, air defense means, aircraft at airfields, and naval forces in their bases. For all practical purposes, he will attempt to take us by surprise. In other words, the attack must be sudden, so that we do not succeed in taking any [counter]measures.

In analyzing these orders, we can also note that in all the orders, at all our exercises, one and the same issue is brought up: the need to improve the effectiveness 'or reconnaissance· an types, including special reconnaissance .

Special reconnaissance is conducted by ag~nt reconnaissance organs as well as by special-purpose (SPETSNAZ] large units and units. The following measures are currently in progress. · ·

1. New, effective means of reconnaissance are undergoing accelerated development and entering service, such as the SU-24[MR], which has a tactical radius of 120<r~~~~Od is an excellent aircraft. Our aircraft currently perform reconnaissance with a tactical radius of 600 km. The MIG-25 should also be included. In addition, the new RAMONA-PLANSHET system has come out. This

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automated system enables us to detect enemy aircraft at a range of 400 km, when radar reconnaissance is (virtually unable] to detect aircraft.

2. The second direction is improvement of training of personnel.

3. The third direction is improvement of the TO&E of reconnaissance large units and units. We now have the radlotechnical brigade instead of radiotechnical regiments. The capabUlties have [grown] substantially. An army has a regiment instead of a ba~talion. If.~e examine special reconnaissance, a front used to have a regiment; now It. has a brigade, and this brigade has a new composition. It now has 240 SPETSNAZ reconnaissance groups. An army now has, inst~d of a company of eight SPETSNAZ reconnaissance groups, a battalion of 30 SPETSNAZ reconnaissance groups.

4. The fourth direction involves the methodology of conducting reconnaissance. We have the forces and means, but we lack the requisite methodology -- how to organize, conduct, and implement these tasks. The exercises we conduct indicate that we are on tee ri~~t t~ack, but that this work must be continued.

To cite one example in illustration, a combined-arms army or tank army can with its forces strike 80 percent of the enemy targets -in its zone, whereas reconnaissance can detect approximately 30 percent of these targets; the offiaial exercise figures are 40-45 percent. The exercises indicate that there is a positive result, but that this is still insufficient. 'n'le recent order of the Minister of Defense therefore states, "Iri 1986 special reconnaissance exercises are to be conducted at which we will re-examine our weak spots and determine what equipment should enter service." These exercises are being prepared, and will be held sometime in May. The last exercises on this subject were held in 1980, the KARPATY-80 exercises.

Tasks, forces and means of agent reconnaissance. The tasks are defined by the front commander and elaborated by the front chief of staff in advance during peacetime in support of the operation to be-conducted, and are based on the reconnaissance orders of the GRUGSh [Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff], or now, of the intelligence directorate (RUJ of the staff of the high command on the axis. It should be said, however, that this question has not been worked out; rights and obligations in this area have not yet been precisely defined. For the time being things are done as previously: the special combat order on reconnaissance of the GRUGSh. In defining tasks the following must be taken into consideration: the available .data on the enemy;the actual capabilities of the forces and means of agent reconnaissance, and the agent-operational environment. Agent reconnaissance 1s [frequently] assigned more tasks than it can carry out, but it is not enough simply to put an agent in place and then e~pect him to provide you with information. This is why chiefs of staff, especially of the military districts, groups of forces, and

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[corresponding fronts) const·antly use t.he expression "actual capabilities." Agent reconnais~will not do everything for you; its forces and means are limited.

The objective of agent reconnaissance in support of the first front operation is to reveal the initiation of immediate preparations by the enemy for an attack, the strength of enemy troop groupings, the enemy's possible intention, the times of attack, and the location of key enemy ~rgets. This general goal is achieved by carrying out reconnaissance tasks. Which reconnaissance tasks must be carried out by agent reconnaissance in support of the preparation and conduct of the first ~ offensive operation?

1. Ascertain changes In the military-political situation In the theater of military operations and in th~ daily activity of the armed forces. For strategic reconnaissance, in a strategic operation, this is the most important task, but for agent operational [operatlvno-agenturnaya} reconnaissance this is not the most important, although it is quite important.

2. Detect the plans of the potential adversary for mobilization deployment and operational deployment of his armed forces. NATO is attempting to shorten the times for strategic deployment. Previously they deployed 85 divisions in Europe by M-30, whereas now this is done by H-10, in one-third the amount of time. Operational deployment used to require 15 days, whereas they now do it in seven days -- half the time. Let us examine a strategic operation in the Western THO as shown on map No. [blank; not received) to illustrate what happens: our nearest army, the 11th Tank Army, is in Kaliningrad. The distance it must travel is 1200 km. .To calculate the amount or tiae it must travel by [word illegible J means' we take 250 km as the average distance. travelled in a day. This is just for traveling, but it aust still spread out. While the first [units] are moving forward, the others are still in place. · When the first large units and units ·arrive, they still have to wait for the others. The enemy attempts to preempt us by ~ing advantage of such factors. They believe that reconnaissance will be able to detect their immediate preparations for an attack in any case, and once these are.detected, they must .preempt us. Let us assume they begin combat actions with the use of nuclear weapons and that they carry out sabotage on the dam at Kaunas, for example. The water will overflow, with a wave height of about 20 meters, flooding out over three to five km at fir.st, and then to 30 km, for an extent of 150-200 km. Along this zone all the bridges, railroad [crossings], etc. will be flooded. The troops of the second operational echelon of the strategic grouping, the Fourth or Fifth Front, will (not} be able to approach [word illegible] or will be be held up altogether. We · therefore need to know [the enemy's) plan and intentions, and this can only be done by agent reconnaissance.

3. Detect (the enemy'sl intentions to use nuclear attack means. If the strike is reciprocal, that Is, both sides deliver strikes simultaneously, our

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first echelon troops will suffer cas~lties of 40 to 50 percent. However, if our strike is retaliatory, our troops will suffer casualties of 60 percent. To see the effect of 60 percent casualties, according to our assumptions and calculations, if a division loses 60 percent of its personnel and equipment, it is, ln fact, not battleworthy. Our strike must therefore be delivered in good time, and to do this we need .reliable data: "The enemy will begin combat actions on day X, at X hours, using nuclear weapons." This kind of information can be obtained only .by agent reconnaissance.

4. Ascertain changes in the combat strength and numerical strength of the ground forces, air' forces. and air defense forces. We know quite well what exists in peacetime, but we need to know what changes. Reconnaissance of air defense •eans is now equal in importance to reconnaissance of nuclear attack means. Previously two launchers in each Nike Hercules battery employed nuclear weapons; now all Nike Hercules launchers employ nuclear weapons to a distance of 155 km against land (?] targets. Patriot will also a.ploy nuclear weapons [two words illegible]. If c011~t actions begin without the use or nuclear weapons, th~ ~iP waans of hitting .the enemy in the operational depth will be our aviation. calculations indicate that if the enemy's air defense system is not suppressed, the probability that our aircraft will get through 100 km from the border intQ the interior will be one to two percent at medium and high alt.itudes; or 25 to 30 percent at low and super-low altitudes (from 50 to 300 m). · For this reason we need to know where the air defense system is, so that we can take it out in good time -- whether by nuclear weapons, precision weapons, or through the use of special measures.

5 .,vP5 . '~110S. Ascertain the coordinates of the enemy's operational-tactical and /1 ·

strategic nuclear attack means. This previously referred only to operational-~~'-J'""' tactical means but now includes strategic means as well: cruise missiles, Pershing II, Pershing I, and Lance. What accuracy is required in determining coordinates? In support of employment of R-900 and R-300 missiles, the accuracy should be to within 15Q-250 aa, and for tactical missiles-it should be 80-150 m. At the SPETSNAZ exercises our [trained intelligence personnel] determine the coordinates on the average to within 500-600 m; at the exercises agents [agentura] determine them using a three-point fix to 600..700 m and more. We have an instrument Which automatically determines coordinates; it weighs approximately 12 kg. There is another .new instrument which weighs approximately 5, kg. The problem is approaching with one of these instruments to take a fit. L~t's say a security platoon surrounds .Pershing I missiles at a radius of 1.5 km from the missiles. We can't get any closer than 1.5 km to determine the coordinates . We need a small, automatic instrument which enables us to take a fix. At present there is .no such small instrument.

6. Detect the location of troop and weapons control posts. particularly ground control posts of AUK (reconnaissance-strike systems) such as PLSS. Assault Breaker, and others, as well as the (LanceI system [word illegible].

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This also refers to control posts for nuclear attack means. An analysis of exercises conducted by our potential adversary reveals that if there is ·an army group in the [word illegible] zone, let's say the Northern Army Group, and the attacks are coordinated, they are capable or attacking an opposing grouping of front troops in the first hours .with one or two launches of operational-tactical missiles and cruise missiles and one sortie of weapon-platform aircraft and rendering this grouping nonbattleworthy. According to other calculations, if nuclear weapons are not employed, in the course or the first two to four days a front is capable with its reconnaissance forces and means of detecting approxiaately 20 percent of the enemy's nuclear attack means; however, we need to destroy 90 to 95 percent of these means. This aeans that the front reconnaissance complement [komplekt razvedki frontal requires fur~ improveaent.

1. Ascertain measures for airlifting troop groupings from the United States, Great Britain, and other axes. Five divisions can be airlifted from the United States in 10 days, and we must detect this pro•ptly.

8. Ascertain the time and direction of ~dvance of reserves.

9. Detect measures taken by the enemy for operational preparation of the TNtO. For example, we ·are interested in flooding areas and in where defense lines will be established. In the area near Hanover in the FRG there is a highway, and above this highway there are two canals, one above the other. If (word illegible] break into this [illegible], our lltain grouping which could deliver a strike on the Hanover-Brussels axes will, in fact, be stopped. The water will be 50 to 70 em high, 80 km across and 100 km long. No .tracked vehicle can pass through this 11ess nor can it be forded. We need to know about this in advance.

10. Ascertain the political attitudes and morale of the enemy troops and the attitude of the l~cal population toward the Soviet Army. We do not attach much importance to this question in our exercises, and did not attach much importance to it during the Great Patriotic War. In the East Prussian Operation, when our troops were approaching, [word illegible) the war, we conducted agent reconnaissance in Belorussian territory; our personnel were welco11ed, fed, and assisted by the local population, and we believed that everything was fine. When combat actions were moved to the territory of East Prussia, -- this was late 19~q -- we believed that we would be greeted as liberators. We completely failed to take into account the attitude of the local population . toward us. We sent our reconnaissance personnel there in soldiers' uniforms and overcoats, with Soviet-made automatic rifles; we .even gave automatic rifles and boots to the Germans. All their provisions and maps were Soviet, of course. And what did the local population do? Everyone was armed, beginning with the 16-year-olds, and as soon as they caught sight of anything that looked like a Soviet soldier, they shot, without asking for documents. We

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COipletely tailed to take this into consideration and relied on the local population uaistina ua, which did not happen. A.s another ezuple, one ot ouzo tulca 1s to ,provide assistance to partisan and l"eSistance aoveaenta. Ve need to know in advance: will there be sucb a aove~~ent 1n the F~ -- we believe not; in the letherlana -- perhaps; and so on. Such queations are ot concern and are renected in specific plans, even those for the preparation and conduct ot tront operations. ---- ­

In order to pertora theM taaka it is neceaaary to reoormoiter the targets, and there are Mny targets. As w stated pl"eviously, the total . ~ ot tarpt.a in the ~ zone is 1000 to 1200. Ot tbese, key [vuhnefahiy] targets -- PBRSHIIC aisailea, crui.. aiuiles, nuclear •unitions depota, [tNO NOJ'd.s illepble] poata, coaancl posts -- nuaber approliutely 400 to qso. lknrever, calculations indicate that reconnaissance cannot detect 1000, and J450 1a difficult. It is necessary to support the effective •ployaent ot the weapons in a ~~ and in a strategic operation, the interaecUate-range aiaaile torcea ot the Strategic Rocket Forces -- the SS-208 -- aust also be supported. That involves 300 launchers, with three warhPALiis ;Jei." launCher -- 900• .

For this reason, a new ten has appeared -- top-priority [pervooohe}eclnoy]tarsete. It the total nuaber of targets 1a 1000 to 1200, and the nu.ber' or key tarpta is approxillately JIOO to 500, we designate 120 to 150 aa top-pl"iority targets. Por instance, an the Hannover-Brussels ads, on the North Genlan atrate&ic axis, this new tera is evident with regard to the planning ·or the tirst nuclear strike. As you know, we have nuclear planning groups. which / include intelligence persoMel·. lle are developing the plan tor reconnaJ..uanoe V ot these targets, and we have now COlle down troa 1100 targets to 150 -- the targets which 118 auat hit and destroy in the first strike. Approd~~ately 100 ot these targets are the responsibility ot agent reconnaissance. The docuaent . 1}' states Which targets these ar~: tirs.t or all Pershing I platoons, Lance . t\ · batteries, ground forces div1sions, SAM. batteries, etc. . . \('"

· 'I' .tJt. ~~'

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••• _.![l the General start any ot the old tenets are being abolished and a -~

new c!Uaitication into strategic and operational targets is ~ing ettect. · '!here are instructions on the olusitication of these new targets. The claaaitioation is new and [word illegible); therefore the literature does not [correspond] absolutely. Tbe classification of targets into strategic and operational is now incorporated into the . "Princ.iples": first, the averase hUIUUl source, .strateglC[oroperi.tional] -- hils capabilities, what he can do in one day; second, what type of target this is, how it is used, can it be hit with a single nuclear •unltion (or warhead, boyepripas], if a strategic target -- by strategic aeans, if an operational target -- by operational aeans. Under the new clusitlcation, [in the missile forces] operational reconnaissance [is now responsible tor] (words illegibleJ launchers and self-propelled launchers, which

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were previously strategic targets, and a number of others, such as · nuclear minefield complexes. In the ground forces, previously ·only a division was an operational target; now separate brigades are also (?included]. In the air . forces, most has remained the same, except that sections of highways adapted for aircraft landing and take-off have been added. ~..t~:te navy, everything has remained approximately the sa•e. As for staffs and control posts, previously age·nt· operational reconnaissance (word illegible] reconnaissance of a command post fro• an aray corps up, but now [remainder of sentence illegible]. Rear ins~llations, however, have remained. The military post is now included, whereas previously it was not. Administrative-industrial installations of an area up to 50 square ~ are operational targets; those with an area greater than 50 square km are strategic targets. Training centers are operational targets. Electric power stations from 100,000 to 500,000 kW are operational targets; those over 500,000 kW are strategic targets. Railroads and [contamination] areas up to 50 square km in area are ·operational targets and those with an area greater than 50 square km are strategic targets.

Every target thrllughout the world has been assigned a number. The numbers are assigned not by the General Staff, but by the hign command on the axis and ~ by the fleet in its zone. Only where there are no axes, etc., are numbers ~ assigned by the General Staff. Each target is assigned a number, and only numbers are used in all correspondence. The first digit stands for Europe {1), Asia (2), etc. The second digit stands tor the axis. For example, in Europe there are officially two axes; a commander-in-chief has not been appointed yetl/for the third because they cannot decide whether to appoint someone from the · Ground Forces or froa the Navy. The third digit stands for the theater of military operations. The next three digits stand for the country. For instance, Oman 1s ij77, Iran is 326, Finland is 239, Sweden is 573, and so on. [Two lines illegible.] The third number is the branch of the armed forces. The numbers after that stand for the unit.

The 1942 system of coordinates provides the main data for a target, but there can be additional data following the coordinates of the target. For instance, if it is a combined target, such as [illegible] Air Base in the FRG, because the airfield is itself a target, and this can be part of yet another target. For instance, if the 135th Air Wing of the British Air Force is located there, then this target is also included as part of the 135th Air Wing. The old system is being replaced by a new one, and there are. many new abbreviations and symbols. For example, an army corps is written as a field army, and missiles, cruise missiles, etc. have new symbols.

A front must have certain agent reconnaissance forces and means in order to perfor.-reconnalssance tasks. The agent organization includes a chief of reconnaissance, an agent section, which is referred to as the second section, a special reconnaissance section, and the communications section. There is one intelligence center (RTs), which is usually not located far from the front

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headquarters or [two words illegible], two or three reconnaissance posts (RP}, a 3eparate Osnaz radio center [radiouzel], which maintains contact with agents and with the (reconnaissance] · organs, and there can also be an agent reconnaissance operational group. In Afghanistan it is called an agent group; in general is is called an operational agent group. These are the command and control organs.

The corresponding active agent networks (DAS) are also set up by the intelligence center and reconnaissance posts. An active agent network is (several words illegible] collects. It can generally have 70 to 90 agent sources. lt may have more than this or less than this; there are no concrete figures. Our experience and analysis of work during the Great Patriotic War indicate that one operations officer can conduct all the different processes -­spot, asse3s, recruit or co-opt, train, dispatch, handle, and, when necessary, take over-- for approximately 1.6 to 1.8 agent sources, or in other words two agent sources. An agent source refers to a residency, an agent group, or an individual agent. It is the general practice in the armed forces to r~fer to an agent source without revealing what it is. These figures refer to an agent source, whether it is a residency, an agent group, or ever. an individual agent. We believe that now, with automation and so forth, this figure can be two agent sources, perhaps 2.2 to 2.5. Then we au.st count how many officers are in the intelligence center, how many are in the reconnaissance posts [several words illegible], and we obtain a list of our capabilities. An officer cannot handle five agent sources. · The experience of the 1o13r indicates that during the last 10 months of the war, one operations officer spotted, recruited or co-opted, trained, dispatched, handled, and took over approximately 65 people. If we exaaine the active agent network, we ~e o.~ to 0.6 to be the probability that an agent source will. perfora a reconnaissance task. An agent source can conduct reconnaissance of one or two targets at one time. Analysis indicates that the probability that an agent in strategic reconnaissance will perform a task, · depending on the situation, is also approximately o.s. We do not only task {an agent] with identification, but the information must be [two words illegible]0.5. Apparently, one agent source is not enough to successfully carry out reconnaissance of a Pershing missile with a 0.95 probability; the probability that this source will perform this task is 0.5 at best. It is therefore necessary to have another agent source or to send a ~PETSNAZ group, reconnaissance aircraft or other means to the area and coordinate action.

We have other calculations which indicate that the probability that a group of ground forces will make 1t across the border .is approximately equal to 0.75. The probability that an aircraft will make it through the air defense system is approximately 0.8. The probability that a group will be detected while operating in the rear of the enemy is approximately 0.6, and the probability that the group, 1r detected, will be destroyed, is 0.85. Taking all this into consideration, the probability that an agent group will carry out its task is at most 0.35. Thus, the time has passed when we could say that once we had

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inserted an agent source, a task would be carried out. [Line illegible.] that the probability that [word illegible] would reach hia [it] was equal to 0.5.

We no~ believe that when the enemy is activating his groupings, it is possible that he will invade our territory to some depth. Once we withdraw, this area must be reconnoitered, and we set up a reserve agent network. A . reserve agent network is generally only.set up on an axis along which the enemy Is attacking. Calculations indicate that we can set up this reserve network to . a depth of 100 to 120 km. It is dangerous to extend it any farther, because this is the depth of defense of the first echelon armies and it would be difficult to maintain it at any greater distance. During the Great Patriotic War the depth of the reserve agent network HaS up to 600 km, Dut at this distance it became impossible for us to control. ·

As a rule, a reserve network is made up from the local population, for the mo~i. r=art people who are not of draft age, the disabled, and (word illegible] women, because the enemy will promptly [take people away) who are not in these categories. Members or the reserve network are used in various ways, but they must be skilled •

. The auxiliary agent network consists of various safehouses, etc.; it will not be discussed here.

The agent reconnaissance reserve is set up and utilized for the purpose of reinforcing the active agent network. In peacetime it may be small, but when the threat period or period of immediate preparations for operations a~rives we begin to dispatch agents from this reserve. Before combat actions begin this is done by land, and after combat actions begin it is done by air. There are no figures on how many of these agents there may be; this is determined independently in each military district. For example, in some districts they number in the hundreds, and in other districts, in the tens. However, a reserve which becomes too large is generally of poor quality. The events in Afghanistan showed that the reserve which was In the Central Asia Military District and was designated for action in Afghanistan turned out to be incapable of performing tasks, or that it was very difficult for it to operate there. They did not know the language, religion, or way of life.

In some districts this reserve is intended for yet another purpose. We have a number of bOrder military districts and groups of forces which do not carry out agent reconnaissance in peacetime. But what if war begins tomorrow? We need to set up an active network in the rear of the enemy. This is when this reserve is intended to set up active networks in the rear of the enemy, in the threat period or even when combat actions begin. However, in order to begin to set up a [network) from members of the reserve, we must know precisely what will

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happen, Whether the enemy will initiate military operations. We may dispatch agents who begin to operate but who are not legalized, and then there is no war. The events of 1963 in Cuba were such an instance: things were well under way,certain measures had begun to be carried out, but there was no war.

Planning and organization of agent reconnaissance. The 26th Party Congress defined.... [Unknown amount of text missing.] [planning], organization, and implementation of reconnaissance [word illegible], as it is written in the "Principles". Planning [word illegible], and this iS beginning to be included 1n all the docUIIents. The "Principles" are now being revised in connection with the departure of the Chief of the General Staff. We ask that planning once again be made an element of the organization of reconnaissance, and that the branches [vldy] of reconnals:sance be changed. As it now stands, reconnaissance is divided Into ground, sea, air, space, and special reconnaissance, and special reconnaissance is further divided into agent reconnaissance and special reconnaissance. We ask that agent reconnaissance and special reconnaissance be made separate branches of reconnaissance.

A plan of front agent reconnaissance for an offensive operation is prepared in the fora of a tert and a nap. The first section of the plan covers the objective and the main tasks. This now also includes special tasks. Agent operational reconnaissance now includes regular agents and SPETSNAZ agents. In , peacetime these SPETSNAZ agents are designated to lay the groundwork at targets which are to be taken out of action by us at the beginning of a war. The · reserve includes agents who are designated to perform special measures at the beginning of the war: putting electric power stations and other targets out of action, annihilating or capturing government leaders and military [word illegible], and a number of others. Therefore we now also train SPETSNAZ agents. Then there are organizational tasks -- who is to be (ex filtrated] , who is to be dispatched, who is to do what, etc.

In the second section of the plan available forces and means are allocated among targets: special attention to such-and-such, availability of such-and­such, which group and source are to perform which tasks, what (time period is given] for this, and which organizational measures are to be carried out during this time. We divide the targets into groups, identify nuclear attack means, what is to be allocated to this, how much is to be allocated for the operation in all. This is followed by measures involving the reserve network {where to set it up and how many [agents)), then recruitment measures.

Agents must be not only recruited or co-opted, but trained as well. The plan must indicate how much time is to be spent on this, and this must then be coordinated with the timing of the operation. An offensive operation lasts 12-15 days, or so it is written in the "Principles", but what actually happens?Let us examine a situation on map No. [blank; not included). Let us assume that on the Berlin axis the enemy activates a grouping of 1700 tanks -- Leopard ·lis,

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etc. Ideally, at least three days a~e needed to stop and repulse this grouping. It is then necessary to get to and cross the forward line of NATO. We may say 15 days~ but calculations and exercises show that this figure is evidently 20 or even 30 days. The rec()nnaissance plan indicates that cruise missiles in the FRG are to be reconnoitered, but while we are recruiting an agent and so forth, by the end of these 15 days, there are no more cruise missiles left in the FRG. ThiB means that we 11ust 'indicate not what we will recruit and use in the first operation, but what we will use in the second operation. The first operation is planned up to the borders of France; we will not succeed in recruiting and training an agent for this operation, however, but rather for the second operation. The subsequent task of the strategic operation is in Spain, so that at this point it is already neces~ry to recruit people who can perform assignments on the territory of Spain.

The next section in the plan covers the organization of command, control, . and conmunicat1ons: [word illegible] to earry out ·communications with the chief of intelligence, what •easures [are to be .taken], and how everything will be organized. Examined realisti~ally, however, coiiUIIalld .and control 1s a complex matter. The diagram of command and control (not included] shows the co111111unicaUons center of the chief of intelligence, the reconnaissance post, the [word or ac;ronym illegible}, and the intelligence center. However, there are aany more questions to be dealt with. What are the capabilities of the Osnaz radio center? How many contacts can it maintain? Our regulations state that each agent source must make two radio contacts per day. ·

[Last lines of page illegible. End of docuaent as received.]

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