norwegian meteorological institute market division. marked.met.no commercial services a few examples...
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Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
Commercial services
A few examples on the use of ECMWF-data at marked.met.no
ECMWF Product Users MeetingReading June 14-16, 2006
Head of Meteorology and Research Erik HagemarkProject meteorologist media Niklas B.Sondell
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
Presentation overview
• Commercial services – who are we?• Innovative use of ECWMF-products:
– Maritime operations planning tool ”MOP”, based on 10-day forecasts from EC-op and EC EPS
– 3 week forecasts, based mainly on the Monthly Forecasting System.
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
Commercial services – who are we?
– Leading service provider in Norway.– Strong position within the maritime, media,
transportation and energy markets. – Specialists in product development/value add– Meteorologists, programmers and salesstaff. – ’Separated’ from the official duties of the
Norwegian Meteorological Institute. – Profitable, no subsidies.
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
Commercial services – who are we?
– We pay the max price to ECMWF (EUR 140.000)
– Currently 34 employees, and growing
Head of Market DivisionJostein Mælan
Head of Market DivisionJostein Mælan
Sales and marketingArne Kristensen
Sales and marketingArne Kristensen
Product developmentJørgen Repshus
Product developmentJørgen Repshus
Meteorology/oceanographyErik Hagemark
Meteorology/oceanographyErik Hagemark
•8 sales and marketing•3 graphic designers
•6 experts in programming
•12 forecasters/meteorologists•1 scientist
•3 consultant forecasters
MET.NODirector
Anton Eliassen
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
A Marine Operations Planning tool
”MOP”
ECMWF Product Users MeetingReading June 14-16, 2006
Commercial services
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
• An interactive web-based tool for combining operations criteria and weather data.
• The program can be run in 2 modes– Hindcast mode using statistics – Forecast mode using ECMWF-data (op and EPS)
Suitable for riggmoves, maintenance, supply logistics and survey and so on…
Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP”
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
Hindcast dataEPS data
MARSIM GUIUser defines operation
Results: wait time/completion time
Program
Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP”
Courtesy Dr.A.K Magnusson, marked.met.no
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
”MOP” - description
• Highly advanced tool with an interactive interface in which the user can enter and alter: – weather dependent criteria– type and duration of operations– vessels involved
• Output is given as 1. Average waiting time2. Total completion time3. Plot of cummulative probability
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
Marine operations planning tool – ”MOP”
Main window (edit mode)
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
”MOP” – output examples
• Average waiting time (hindcast mode)
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
”MOP” – output examples
• Average waiting time (forecast mode)
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
A 3-week forecast using the ECMWF Monthly Forecasting
System
ECMWF Product Users MeetingReading June 14-16, 2006
Commercial services
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
3-week forecasts
• First issued late Nov 2005, operational from March 2006
• Derived from the ECMWF Monthly Forecast System
• The last week (week 4) is not included due to low skill
• Updated weekly • Several languages
available
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
3-week forecasts - description
• Main focus on weather regimes, and when regimes are changing. – Hovmoeller Diagram and Weather Regime
Clusterisation.– In many cases we adapt the anomalies to better fit
the weather regime.
• The anomalies derived directly from the model are not always accurate because of the coarse resolution in the model.
• The forecast is also used by the forecaster as an input in our 10 day forecast issued daily.
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
3-week forecasts - verification
• March 2006 to date, showing precipitation and temperature.
• Proven skill in forecasting colder/warmer and drier/wetter than normal.
• Low skill in forecasting the exact anomaly.
Precipitation skills
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Troms,Finnmark
Nordland Trøndelag,M&R
Vestlandet Sørlandet Østlandet Total
Regions
%Day 12-18
Day 19-25
Temperature skills
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Troms,Finnmark
Nordland Trøndelag,M&R
Vestlandet Sørlandet Østlandet Total
Regions
%Day 12-18
Day 19-25
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
3-week forecasts and energy trading
• Powerful tool when applied in connection with energy trading
• Proven skill when compared to forward contracts at Nordpool
• Max return on the 8th trading day
Investment return based on 3-week forecast
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7 Day 8 Day 9 Day 10
Tradingday following issue of forecast and investment
no
of
fore
ca
sts
Positive
Negative
•Used: forwards for the middle-kWh-price, third quarter 2006
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Market Division. marked.met.no
Thank you!!
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