northside regeneration project white paper - jobs and income, by missouri wonk

7/30/2019 NorthSide Regeneration Project white paper - Jobs and Income, by Missouri Wonk

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NORTHSIDE JOBS & INCOME

NorthSide: Jobs & Income

TheNorthSideareasjobs,economy,and

incomecanbestbedescribedthroughan

analysisofitsunemploymentrate,thejobsof

itsresidents,itsresidentsmedianincomes,and

thepovertylevelofthearea.

Unemployment

Whenanalyzingtheeconomicproductivityof

anareaspopulation,onekeyindicatoristhe

unemploymentrate;thisrateisthepercentage

oftheunemployedrelativetothenumberof

peopleinthelaborforce.Eachyear,theU.S.

CensusBureauaskshouseholdswhetherthey

areemployed,unemployed,ornotinthelabor

force.

Table1containsthetotalpopulationsixteen

yearsorolder,thepercentageofthat

populationthatisinthelaborforce,andthe

unemploymentratefortheNorthSidearea,St.

Summary

Ananalysisofthe2010AmericanCommunitySurveydatareportsthattheNorthSideareahasa

higherunemploymentrateandalowerpercentageofthesixteenorolderpopulationinthelabor

forcethaneitherSt.LouisCity,theSt.Louismetropolitanarea,orMissouri.Thehigh

concentrationofresidentswithalessthanhighschooleducationattainmentandthelackof

transportationoptionsavailabletothe47%ofhouseholdsthatdonotownavehiclemaybe

contributingfactorsinthishighunemploymentrateandlowlaborforceparticipation.The

NorthSideareapopulationhasamedianincomethatisabouthalfofSt.LouisCitys,40%of

Missouris,andone-thirdoftheSt.Louismetropolitanareas.Additionally,theNorthSide

populationsmedianincomehasgrownataslowerpacesince1970thananyofthethreeareasof

comparison.ThislowmedianincomeisalsoindicativeoftheextremepovertyintheareaastheNorthSideareasproportionofresidentswithincomesbelowthefederalpovertylevelisnearly

twiceashighasSt.LouisCitys,morethanthreetimesashighasMissouris,andfourtimesthe

proportionoftheSt.Louismetropolitanareas.
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LouisCity,theSt.LouisMetropolitanArea,and

Missourifor2010.

TheunemploymentrateintheNorthSidearea

is1.7Xtherateofthecityandalmost3XtherateofeithertheSt.Louismetropolitanarea

orMissouri.However,oneofthemore

interestingaspectsofthedataisthe

percentageofthepopulationsixteenorolder

thatisinthelaborforce.Whilethis

percentagerangedfrom65-68%forthethree

areasofcomparison,theNorthSides

percentagewaslessthan50%.Many

NorthSideresidentsmayhavegivenuplookingforajobanddroppedoutofthelabor

force;iftheseresidentswereinthelabor

force,theunemploymentratemayhavebeen

muchhigher.

Area Population16+ InLaborForce Unemployed

NorthSide 10,772 48.8% 21.3%

STLCity 256,198 65.9% 12.6%

STLMetro 1,562,728 67.9% 7.8%

Missouri 4,664,019 65.2% 7.4%

Table1:2010EmploymentandUnemployment

TheUnemploymentRate

TheBureauofLaborStatisticsdividesthepopulationintothreecategories:employed,

unemployed,andnotinthelaborforce.

Employed-Peoplewithjobs

Unemployed-Peoplewhoarejobless,lookingforjobs,andavailableforwork

NotintheLaborForce-Peoplewhoareneitheremployednorunemployed

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics,Infotakenverbatimfromwebsite

American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates


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Oneofthecontributingfactorsfortheextreme

unemploymentintheareaistheeducation

attainmentoftheNorthSidepopulation.Table

2comparestheunemploymentratesforthose

ages25-64withlessthanahighschool

educationoftheNorthSidearea,St.LouisCity,

theSt.Louismetropolitanarea,andMissouri.

Ofthenearly2000residentsintheNorthSide

whoarebetweentheagesof25and64and

whohavealessthanahighschooleducation,

morethanhalf(52%)arenotinthelabor

force;ofthosewhoareinthelaborforce,

nearlyone-third(31%)areunemployed.The

unemploymentrateismuchhigherforthose

thathavelessthanahighschooleducationin

thethreeareasofcomparisonaswell.This

informationindicatesthattheoverall

educationattainmentoftheNorthSide

residentsislikelyin`luencingthe

unemploymentrateinthearea.

Occupations

Themorethan4,000NorthSideresidentsthat

dohaveajobworkintheoccupationsand

proportionslistedinTable3;theproportions

forSt.LouisCity,theSt.Louismetropolitan

area,andMissouriarelistedaswell.

Morethan40%oftheemployedNorthSide

residentsworkintheserviceindustry,amuch

higherpercentagecomparedtothethree

othercomparisonareas.TheNorthSidearea

hasasigni`icantlysmallershareofjobsinthe

management,business,and`inancialcategory,

thecomputerengineering,andscience

category,theeducation,legal,community

service,artsandmediacategory,andthe

healthcarepractitionersandtechnical

occupationscategorythanSt.LouisCity,the

St.Louismetropolitanarea,andMissouri.

AreaPopulation25-64

withoutHSEducationInLaborForce Unemployed

NorthSide 1,981 48.0% 30.7%

STLCity 27,535 55.3% 21.2%

STLMetro 92,686 59.7% 14.4%

Missouri 336,893 58.0% 13.2%

Source:AmericanCommunitySurvey2010,5-yearEstimates

Table2:LaborForceandUnemploymentforAges25-64withLessthana

HighSchoolEducation
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Table3:Occupations

Oftheapproximate1,700NorthSideresidents

whoworkinserviceoccupations,55%work

ineitherfoodpreparationandservice

occupationsorthebuildingandgrounds

cleaningormaintenanceoccupations.Ofthe

approximate950NorthSideresidentswho

workinsalesandof`iceoccupations,more

than62%workinadministrativesupport

occupationsandtheremaining38%workin

salesoccupations.

JourneytoWork

TheNorthSideresidentsmusthaveameansof

gettingtothesejobs.Oftheapproximate

4,000arearesidentsthatareemployed,about

29%ofthemdonothaveavehicleavailableto

Occupations NorthSide STLCity STLMetro Missouri

Management,

Business,andFinancial

6.8% 11.2% 15.4% 13.6%

Computer,Engineering,and

Science1.9% 5.2% 6.1% 4.3%

Education,Legal,Community

Service,Arts,andMedia

6.7% 12.5% 10.6% 9.9%

HealthCare

PractitionersandTechnical 1.9% 6.0% 6.2% 5.7%

Service 41.4% 23.8% 16.5% 17.0%

SalesandOf`ice 22.8% 23.8% 26.7% 25.9%

NaturalResources,Construction,and

MaintenanceOccupations

6.0% 6.2%% 7.8% 9.8%

Production,

Transportation,andMaterial

Moving

12.5% 11.3% 10.8% 13.8%



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gettowork.Ofthese1,200residents,about

halfrelyonpublictransportationtogettoand

fromwork,about18%walk,about16%either

borrowacarorcarpoolwithothers,andthe

resteitherworkathomeorutilizetaxis,

bicycles,orsomeothermeansof

transportation.

TheNorthSideresidentslackofaccesstoa

vehiclemaycontributetotheunemployment

andlackofparticipationinthelaborforceas

describedearlierinthisanalysis.With47%of

allNorthSidehouseholdslackingamotor

vehicle,itmaybedifìcultforthemtoarrange

transportationtoandfromwork,which

furthercompoundstheirdifìcultiesinìndingandmaintainingemployment.

Income

Table4showshowtheNorthSidemedian

incomehascomparedtothemedianincomein

St.LouisCity,theSt.Louismetropolitanarea,

andMissouriinthe1970,1980,1990,and

2000censusesaswellasthe2010American

CommunitySurvey.

In2010,theNorthSideareasmedianincome

was3.83Xwhatitwasin1970;incomparison,

St.LouisCitysmedianincomewas4.11X,the

St.Louismetropolitanareawas5.11X,and

Missourismedianincomeis5.19Xwhatitwas

in1970.Thisshowsthatthedisadvantages

thattheNorthSideareafacedin1970have

onlygottenworse.Graph1showsthisdatain

alinegraph.TheNorthSideareaslineonthe

graphisnotassteepastheotherareaslines,

indicatingthatmedianincomehasgrownataslowerpacethanSt.LouisCity,theSt.Louis

metropolitanarea,andMissouri.

Poverty

Thisincomeinformationisindicativeofthe

extremepovertyinthearea.Table5shows

Area 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

NorthSide $4,715 $8,237 $10,348 $16,958 $18,065

STLCity $8,182 $11,511 $19,458 $27,156 $33,652

STLMetro $10,691 $18,879 $32,708 $45,623 $54,646

Missouri $8,914 $15,581 $26,362 $37,934 $46,262

Table4:MedianIncome1970-2010

Sources:NeighborhoodChangeDatabase,U.S.DecennialCensuses1970-2000,andAmerican

CommunitySurvey2010,5-yearEstimates


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Graph1:MedianIncome1970-2010

Area ProportionofPopulationBelowPovertyLevel

NorthSide 45.7%

STLCity 26.0%

STLMetro 11.4%

Missouri 13.9%

Table5:2010Poverty


thepercentageofresidentswhoseincomes

arebelowthepovertyline.

ThepercentageofNorthSideresidentsthat

arebelowthepovertylevelisabout46%,whichisnearlytwicethenumberthatare

belowthepovertylevelinSt.LouisCity,more

than4Xtheproportionbelowthepoverty

levelintheSt.Louismetropolitanarea,and

about3.3Xtheproportionofthosebelowthe

povertylevelinMissouri.


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Summary

Ananalysisofthe2010AmericanCommunitySurveydatareportsthattheNorthSidearea

hasahigherunemploymentrateandalowerpercentageofthesixteenorolderpopulationinthelaborforcethaneitherSt.LouisCity,theSt.Louismetropolitanarea,orMissouri.The

highconcentrationofresidentswithalessthanhighschooleducationattainmentandthe

lackoftransportationoptionsavailabletothe47%ofhouseholdsthatdonotownavehicle

maybecontributingfactorsinthishighunemploymentrateandlowlaborforce

participation.TheNorthSideareapopulationhasamedianincomethatisabouthalfofSt.

LouisCitys,40%ofMissouris,andone-thirdoftheSt.Louismetropolitanareas.

Additionally,theNorthSidepopulationsmedianincomehasgrownataslowerpacesince

1970thananyofthethreeareasofcomparison.Thislowmedianincomeisalsoindicativeof

theextremepovertyintheareaastheNorthSideareasproportionofresidentswithincomes

belowthefederalpovertylevelisnearlytwiceashighasSt.LouisCitys,morethanthree

timesashighasMissouris,andfourtimestheproportionoftheSt.Louismetropolitan

areas.


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Data,Sources,andArea

Relyingoncensusdatafrom1970-2010,MissouriWonkcanshowhowthedemographicsofthe

populationhavechangedfortheNorthSidearea6.Theareaoffocusinthisanalysisisthe

geographicregionencompassedbycensustracts1115,1201,1202,1203,1212,1213,1214,

1257and1266ofthe2000censusandcensustracts1115,1202,1212,1257,1266,1271,and

1275ofthe2010census.Theareacoveredbythesetractsisnearlyidentical,however,between

2000and2010,theBureauoftheCensusconsolidatedtracts1201and1203intoanewtract,

1271,andcollapsedtracts1213and1214intoanewtract,1275.

The2000censustractsrelyoninformationcontainedintheNeighborhoodChangeDatabase,

whichwasdevelopedby:

Geolytics,Inc.,aprivatecompanythatspecializesincurrentandhistoriccensusdata; TheUrbanInstitute,aresearchorganizationthatstemsfromarecommendationofa

1960sblue-ribboncommissionappointedbyPresidentLyndonJohnson(Urban

Institute);and TheRockefellerFoundation,aphilanthropicorganizationwhichsupportsworkthat

expandsopportunityandstrengthensresiliencetosocial,economic,healthand

environmentalchallenges,whichprovidedpartofthefundingfortheinitiative

(RockefellerFoundation).

TheNeighborhoodChangeDatabaseallowsforhistoricalanalysisofaspeci`icareaasspeci`icas

thecensustractlevel.WhiletheU.S.BureauoftheCensuschangesitscensustractboundaries

toaccommodatechangesinpopulation,thedatabaseholdscensustractboundariessteadyover

time;thisallowsforanapples-to-applescomparisonofthesameregionacrossthe1970,

1980,1990,and2000decennialcensuses.Atthetimeofthiswriting,the2010censustracts

andboundarieshavenotbeenincorporatedintothedatabase;however,asidefromthe

consolidationofthetractsmentionedpreviously,therewasonlyonedifferenceinthetotalarea

ofthestudyandnoneofmaterialdistinction.7


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Figure1:NorthSideAreainContextofSt.LouisCity

Source:MapproducedwithGeolyticssoftware,ACS2006-2010Interface.

Note:TheareashownhighlightedinredstripesdesignatestheNorthSide

Area.


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Figure2:NorthSideArea2000CensusTracts

1214

1257

1213

1266

1203

1202

1201

1212

1115

Source:MapproducedwithGeolyticssoftwareusingtheNeighborhoodChangeDatabase

2000

Note:NumbersdenotecensustractsasusedbytheUnitedStatesBureauoftheCensus


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Figure3:NorthSideArea2010CensusTracts

1202

1115 1271

1266

12571275

1212

Source:MapproducedwithGeolyticssoftware,ACS2006-2010Interface.

Note:NumbersabovedenotecensustractnumbersusedbyUnitedStatesBureauofthe

Census.


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References

AmericanCommunitySurvey(ACS)2010.UnitedStatesBureauoftheCensus.Information

obtainedfromGeolytics,Inc.

BureauofLaborStatistics.LaborForceStatisticsfromtheCurrentPopulationSurvey.

RetrievedfromtheworldwidewebonDecember2,2012fromhttp://www.bls.gov/cps/

cps_htgm.htm#concepts.

NeighborhoodChangeDatabase.Geolytics,Inc.2010.

U.S.BureauoftheCensus.1970,1980,1990,and2000Censuses.Information

obtainedfromGeolytics,Inc.

ABOUT MISSOURI WONK

Missouri Wonk is a firm founded by Brian Schmidt that performs policy analysis services for

businesses, trade associations non-profits, campaigns, and government entities.

ABOUT BRIAN SCHMIDT

Brian Schmidt served as the Executive Director of the Missouri General Assemblys Joint Committeeon Tax Policy from 2005 through 2011. He received a Bachelor of Political Science degree at Truman

State University and a Master of Public Affairs- Public Policy degree at the University of Missouri-

Columbia.
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