north pacific and north atlantic multidecadal variability: origin, predictability, and implications...
TRANSCRIPT
North Pacific and North Atlantic multidecadal variability:
Origin, Predictability, and Implications for Model Development
Thanks to: J. Ba, N. Keenlyside, W. Park, H. Pohlmann
Mojib Latif, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University
Deviations of 1999-2008 SAT from long-term warming trend 1950-2008
PDO and AMO can be easily identified
Hurrell et al. 2010
PDO and AMO index at a glanceThere is a lot of interannual variability (signal-to-noise)
PDO and AMO seem not be linked to each other
PDO seems to have a slightly smaller period than AMO
Scientific questions1. Can we explain the multidecadal variability by
a simple stochastic model? 2. Is North Pacific (PDV) and North Atlantic
multidecadal variability (AMV) linked?3. What provides the memory in the two basins?4. What are the implications for decadal
predictability?5. How did the Walker Circulation change during
the 20th century (external and internal factors)?
Hierarchy of stochastic models
Test of the stochastic mechanism1. ECHAM5-OZ: ECHAM5 (T31) coupled to a multi-level mixed layer ocean (depth 500m), 1000 years (Dommenget and Latif 2008)
2. KCM: ECHAM5 (T31) coupled to an OGCM (NEMO), 4000 years (Park et al. 2009)
SSTA pattern of leading mode and spectra in ECHAM5-OZ
Atmospheric teleconnections spread the extratropical signal to the Tropics. Once SST anomalies have developed there, the signal is spread globally (referred to as a “Hyper Mode”).
Dommenget and Latif 2008
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Observed EOF-1 (32%), exp. trend removed, P > 10 years
ECHAM5-OZ EOF-1 (29%), P > 40 years
Leading multidecadal mode of SST
Dommenget and Latif 2008
The spatial structure of observed Pacific multidecadal SST variability is consistent with
the “Hyper Mode” picture
Is PDV related to AMV in KCM?
Leading mode (40%) has loadings only in the Pacific
Park and Latif 2010, subm.
Regression patterns, PDV
Does show elements of a Hyper Mode
Is PDV related to AMV in KCM?
POP2 (20%) has loadings only in NA. North Pacific and North Atlantic multidecadal SST variability are basically unrelated in KCM. NA SST is not (!) stationary.
Park and Latif 2010, subm.
Regression patterns, AMV
Hyper Mode picture does not apply
ST
Jin Ba, IFM-GEOMAR
3-d T/S EOF1 leads AMOC by a decade
Stochastically forced AMOC variability
Most observational evidence points towards the “ocean-only” oscillator (see also Griffies and Tziperman 1995)
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)NAO-related SAT pattern (°C), +1σ
The NAO can affect Labrador Sea convection
The NAOI spectrum is almost white, but there is multidecadal variability
AMOC may have responded to the multidecadal NAO changes (Eden and Jung 2003)
weak AMOC? strong AMOC?
The NAO: a key for decadal AMOC variability in recent decades?
Time lag is of the order of a decade
Latif et al. 2006
Overturning anomalies from forced OGCM
Forced ocean model (ORCA 0.5°)
Alvarez et al. 2008AMOC changes follow multidecadal NAO changes
Cold phase of multidecadal mode
Warm phase of multidecadal mode
What do the ocean analyses show?
Pohlmann et al. 2010
AMOC at 45°N and 1000m depth from the assimilation experiments of 10 decadal prediction systems (three year running mean are shown)
There seems to be some consistency in the multidecadal AMOC changes
raw values normalized values
Implications for decadal predictability
Pacific Decadal Variability is largely consistent with a simple stochastic model (hyper mode). Decadal predictability potential may be only modest.
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability is more consistent with a stochastically driven oceanic eigenmode. This implies a considerably larger decadal predictability potential.
20th Century Walker CirculationInter-basin zonal temperature gradient (160°W-80°W, 80°E-160°E; 5°S-5°N)
and inverted SLP gradient (as defined by Vecchi et al. 2006)
Forced experiments with ECHAM5 with observed SST1. Sensitivity to SST forcing (HadISST vs. ERSST)2. Sensitivity to the radiative forcing (with and without)3. Sensitivity to horizontal model resolution (T31 and T106)4. Comparison with 20th century integrations with coupled models5. Analysis of the link between SST gradient and SLP gradient in
control runs with coupled models6. Analysis of internal variability of centennial trends in global
warming simulations with one coupled model KCM
Trends in 20th century SST obtained from HadISST and ERSST and SLP response
All SST forced ECHAM5 runs yield a strengthening of the Walker Circulation during the 20th century
Meng et al. 2010
20th Century Walker Circulation change
strong circulation
weak circulation
Trends in inter-basin SST and SLP gradient
There is a consistent linear relationship between the inter-basin SST and SLP gradient in all climate models
Meng et al. 2010
ECHAM5
Obs.
Walker Circulation response in global warming (1%/year increase) runs
strong circulation
weak circulation
differences between the last 30 and the first 30 years of the 100 year integrations
There is no robust response of the Walker Circulation, not even in a single model (KCM)
20th century obs.
1. Can we explain the variability by a simple stochastic model? A large component in NP.
2. Is North Pacific and North Atlantic multidecadal variability linked? Not much.
3. What provides the memory in the two basins? Gyre (NP) and AMOC (NA).
4. What are the implications for decadal predictability? More potential in NA rel. to NP.
5. What are the relative roles of external and internal factors? Internal variability may mask global warming effects even on centennial timescales (e.g. Walker Circulation strength).
Summary
Thank you for your attention!