north korea final project

A Security Study:

North Korea:Nuclear Proliferation, Political

Isolation, and Desperation

1

Jeffrey T. Hall December 11, 2013

Table of Contents

Annex 1: Estimate Page 03

Annex 2: Information Collection Plan Report Page 05

Annex 3: Link Analysis Page 07

Annex 4: Link Analysis Chart Page 08

Annex 5: Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield Analysis Page 09

Annex 6: Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield Imagery Page 10

Annex 7: Competing Hypotheses Analysis Page 13

Annex 8: Structured Analyses of Competing Hypotheses Charts Page 14

Annex 9: Analyst Contact Information Page 18

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Annex 1:

Estimate

Executive Summary:

It is virtually certain that North Korea will remain unstable for the next twenty-four months. Of the principal contributing factors, economic instability caused by the inherent limitations of a command economy and the crippling effects of sanctions imposed by the United Nations and United States over its nuclear weapons program, is the most influential. Politically, the ascension of KIM Jong Un to power following the death of KIM Jong Il in December, 2011 has resulted in uncertainty over the future course of North Korea’s external political and economic relations as his political ideology and ambitions are not well understood. North Korea continues to develop its nuclear program in defiance of United Nations and United States mandates that it abandon its pursuit of nuclear technology for non-peaceful purposes. Given the combined economic and political stressors, developments confirming that the status quo remains unaffected by the recent transition of political power, and the continuation of political and economic sanctions further isolating what is already one of the most isolated countries in the world, the future prospects for North Korea and its people remain very poor. End Summary.

Discussion:

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North Korea’s economic difficulties have caused its people great distress which, in turn, has undermined support for the ruling regime. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990’s, North Korea lost what was its largest trade partner sending what was an already fragile economy into complete dysfunction. To complicate matters, economic aid that had been given to North Korea by the Soviet Union was terminated and newly formed, independent states like Russia demanded that any outstanding loans be repaid which North Korea was unable to do. The enusing economic difficulties resulted in hyper-inflation, social dysfuntion, and mass famine from 1994 to 1998 referred to as “the march of suffering” after a series of droughts and floods decimated the country’s food supply.

North Korea’s political difficulties are the result of an isolationist, totalitarian, and despotic political regime marked by human rights violations, gross mismanagement, and an intense nationalistic ideology known as “juche” which roughly translates into “self-suffiency.” Following its economic collapse in the 1990’s, North Korea accelerated its efforts to use its existing nuclear program for nonpeaceful purposes in direct violation of the terms and conditions of the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) that it had signed and subsequently ratified in 1985.

The resulting economic and political sanctions imposed on North Korea by the United Nations and United States served to worsen its economic crises while further isolating it from global integration both economically and politically. In response, North Korea withdrew from the NPT (the only nation ever to have done so) and further accelerated its efforts to obtain enough fissile material to conduct nuclear weapons tests.

In 2006, North Korea successfully conducted its first nuclear weapons test by detonating an underground device that had an effective yield of less than one kiloton. Subsequent tests in 2009 and 2013 each produced successively higher yields ranging from two to seven and six to nine kilotons, respectively. North Korea is currently developing and testing missile delivery systems with effective ranges that put Japan, western Europe, and the continental United States within striking distance.

North Korea’s social dificulties are impressive. The most reliable estimates project that 30% of the Country’s twenty-four million people are malnourished to varying degrees and are dependent upon external food aid from China, Japan, South Korea, the European Union, and the United States. Additionally, access to proper healthcare is estimated to be very poor compared to world averages.

North Korea’s armed forces are considered adequate to insure its sovereignty. Military service is compulsory for both sexes at age 18. While it has successfully conducted three nuclear weapons tests, it is estimated that North Korea currently lacks the technological expertise for miniaturizing a nuclear explosive to the extent necessary for weaponization.

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North Korea’s technological capabilities are considered adequate with extensive fibre optic networks deployed down to the county level. Despite having the capacity to deliver internet services, however, the North Korean government severely limits the exchange of information; unlimited internet access is generally restricted to government agencies only.

North Korea’s geographic features and topography are unremarkable except to the extent that the amound of developable and arable land is severely limited due to the predominantly mountainous and hilly terrain. This renders the Country unable to feed its population without the aforementioned external aid. End discussion.

Comments:

Various sources were used in the creation of the information contained in this section specifically and throughout the entirety of this analytic product. The primary sources—Janes Defence and the CIA World Factbook—are generally regarded within the intelligence community as having very high degrees of reliability and analytic confidence. End comments.

Source Reliability: 9 Source Confidence: 8

Annex 2:

Information Collection Plan Report

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ID Source Name Type of SourceIntelligence

TypePeriodicit

y Purpose Time Utility Title Comments

Source Reliabilit

y

1 CIA World Factbook

Government

Website OSINT As Needed Economics

Highly

Useful

United States government

website: North Korean

Economic Data

Objective database; vetted

sources 9

2 The Economist Intelligence Unit Institutional Website OSINT Frequent Economics

Highly

Useful

The Economist Intlligence:

North Korean Economic

Data

Conservative bias; high

journalistic stadards 7

3

U.S. Trade and Development

Agency

Government

Website OSINT Frequent Economics

Highly

Useful



Economic Data


sources 9

4 Rand Corporation Corporate Website OSINT As Needed Economics

Highly

Useful

Rand Corporation website:

North Korean Economic

Data


sources; multi-disciplinary 8

5 Nationmaster.com Corporate Website OSINT As Needed Economics Useful

Nationmaster.com


Economic Data


sources 5


Government

Website OSINT Frequent Geography

Highly

Useful



Geograohic Data

Objective database;

detailed geographic data 9

7 Google Earth Corporate Website IMINT Frequent Geography

Highly

Useful

Google Earth website:

North Korean Satellite

Imagery

Objective database; high-

resolution images 9

8

National Geospatial-Intelligence

Agency Corporate Website OSINT Frequent Geography

Highly

Useful

United State government


Geographic Data

Objective database;

detailed raster mapping 9

9 National Geographic Corporate Website IMINT Frequent Geography Useful

National Geographic


satellite imagery and

mapping data

Objective database;

detailed geographic,

mapping, and high-

resolution imagery data 7

10 Mapquest Corporate Website IMINT As Needed Geography Useful

Mapquest.com website:

North Korean satellite

imagery and mapping data

Objective database;

detailed geographic,

mapping, and high-

resolution imagery data 5


Government

Website OSINT As Needed Military

Highly

Useful



military data


sources 9

12 Janes Intelligence Corporate Website OSINT Frequent Military

Highly

Useful

IHS Janes website: North

Korean military data


sources; high analy tic

confidence 9

13 Global Times

Online News

Source OSINT Frequent Military Useful

Global Times website:

China denies receiv ing

North Korean nuke test

plans

Subjective; biased

sources; pro-nationalist

slant 3

14 Stratfor Global Intelligence Corporate Website OSINT Frequent Military Useful

Stratfor Global Intelligence

website: Ferocious, Weak

and Crazy : The North

Korean Strategy Validated, vetted sources;

high journalistic standards 7

6


Government

Website OSINT Frequent Political

Highly

Useful



political data


sources 9

16 Reuters

Online News

Source OSINT Daily Political Useful

North Korea's "reign of

terror" worries South…

Validated, vetted sources;


17 DPRK Government

Government

Website OSINT Frequent Political

Not

Useful

North Korean government

website

State-run, propaganda-

laden, biased sources 1

18 U.S. Department of State

Government

Website OSINT Daily Political

Highly

Useful



political data


sources 9

19 Reuters

Online News

Source OSINT Daily Political Useful

North Korea says Kim's

Uncle dismissed for

'criminal acts'



20 New York Times Newspaper OSINT Daily Political Useful

North Korea accuses

captive U.S. v eteran of

war crimes




Government

Website OSINT Frequent Social

Highly

Useful



social data

Objective database, vetted

sources 9


Government

Website OSINT Frequent Social

Highly

Useful



social data


sources 9

23 BBC News

Online News

Source OSINT Daily Social Useful

BBC News website: North

Korea Profile



24 The Independent

Online News


The Independent website:

Lost world: Scenes from

North Korea's closed

society



25 NK News

Online News

Source OSINT As Needed Social

Not

Useful NK News website:

NegativeNorth Korea bias;

questionable journalistic

standards; U.S.

government sponsered? 2


Government

Website OSINT Frequent Technology

Highly

Useful



technological data


sources 9


Government

Website OSINT Frequent Technology

Highly

Useful



technologiical data


sources 9

28 BBC News

Online News


BBC News website: North

Korea 'makes home-

grown' Arirang smartphone



29 The Sydney Morning Herald Online Newspaper OSINT Daily Social Useful

The Sydney Morning

Herald website: North

Korea dev eloping

electromagnetic pulse

weapons: report

Sources unknown;

average journalistics

standards 5

30 The Guardian (AP Sourced) Online Newspaper OSINT Daily Social Useful

The Guardian website:

North Korea 'has

technology to build

uranium-based nuclear

bombs'

AP sourced: validated,

vetted sources; high

journalistic standards 8

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ANNEX 3:

Link Analysis

Executive Summary:

The preceding link analysis chart of North Korea illustrates the effects that the centralization of political power and proliferation efforts will have on North Korea’s virtually certain instability over the next 24 months. The primary node—the centralization of political power—is the principal catalyst for North Korea’s economic problems, both directly and indirectly. KIM Jong Un directs all aspects of its command economy, directing much of the Country’s economic resources into the military. To exacerbate matters, North Korea’s proliferation efforts have resulted in economic and political sanctions imposed by the United Nations and United States further crippling an already inherently unstable and strained economic system. End Summary.

Discussion:

North Korean political power is now fully-consolidated into its Head of State, KIM Jong Un, who assumed power upon the death of his father KIM Jong Il in December, 2011 and following the very recent arrest and subsequent summary execution of his uncle, JANG Song Thaek.

As a result of its nuclear proliferation efforts, both the United Nations and the United States have imposed severe economic sanctions on North Korea in an effort to compel it to abandon its nuclear weapons program. To date, these efforts have not only been unsuccessful but have had the opposite of their intended effect as North Korea continues to develop and test nuclear weapons and appears to be making significant progress as reflected by increasing yields.

Recently, North Korea restarted the reactor at Yongbyon which is believed to have supplied all of the fissile material for each of North Korea’s nuclear tests conducted in 2006, 2009, and 2013. Condemned by the international community, such acts serve to further isolate North Korea from global integration both economically and politically. End discussion.

Comments:


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ANNEX 4:

Link Analysis Chart

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ANNEX 5:

Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield Analysis

Executive Summary:

The preceding Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) chart and accompanying satellite imagery illustrate the military evidence that North Korea is virtually certain to remain unstable over the next 24 months. The largest contributing factor to this instability is the North Korean economy which has been decimated by disproportionately high military spending while suffering the negative effects of created by the imposition of sanctions by the United Nations and United States as a result of North Korea’s nuclear defiance. While the North Korean military is the most stable element of the North Korean regime, it is in fact this same stability that undermines the economic and political elements of the regime because of the inherent costs associated with maintaining such a large armed forces. End Summary.

Discussion:

North Korea is located on the northern end of the Korean Peninsula bordering the Korean Bay and the Sea of Japan, between China and South Korea. Topographically, it is comprised of mostly hills and mountains separated by deep, narrow valleys with coastal plains wide in the West and discontinuous in the East. It has a continental climate and is, comparatively speaking, slightly smaller than the state of Mississippi. Its natural geographic features isolate it from ground attacks generally, with only a few viable avenues of approach for ground forces; the vast majority of the Country can by classified as either slow-go or no-go areas.

The North Korean armed forces are distributed throughout the entire peninsula; however, there is a high concentration of military assets situated in or around Pyongyang. General Order of Battle data consists of the Korean People’s Army with 1,023,000 Troops; the Korean People’s Air Force with 110,000 Troops and 1700 Aircraft; and the Korean People’s Navy with 60,000 Troops and 740 Vessels. End discussion.

Comments:

Various sources were used in the creation of the information contained in this section specifically and throughout the entirety of this analytic product. The primary sources—Google Earth, Janes Defence, and the CIA World Factbook—are generally regarded within the

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intelligence community as having very high degrees of reliability and analytic confidence. End comments.


Annex 6:

North Korea IPB Chart and Satellite ImageryNorth Korea

Demilitarized Zone

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Avenue of Approach

Slow-Go Lake #1

12

Slow-Go: Mountainous Area #1

Slow-Go: Yalu River

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ANNEX 7:

Competing Hypotheses Analysis

Executive Summary:

PARC 2.0.5 ACH software predicted that it is more likely than not that North Korea will be unstable over the next 24 months. Structured analysis of the competing hypotheses indicated further that economic considerations were the primary contributing factor.

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Discussion:

Writer utilized PARC 2.0.5 ACH software to analyze the economic, geographic, military, political, social, and technological considerations that factor prominantly in the North Korean stability equation. The datum were operationalized within the framework of a tyrannical and despotic political regime using the the threat of nuclear warfare to achieve its internal and external policy objectives. Upon further investigation, this more structured approach confirmed that North Korea will more than likely remain unstable over the next 24 months. End discussion.

Comments:


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ANNEX 8:

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Chart

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Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Chart

19

Annex 9:

Analyst Contact Information

Jeffrey T. Hall

888 Trombley Road

Grosse Pointe Park, Michigan 48230

Mobile: 313-495-6228

Email: [email protected]

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mailto:[email protected]

north korea final project

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