north carolina poll slides (2012)

Lunch & LearnSchool Choice – The Road Ahead

September 18, 2012

Paul DiPernaFriedman Foundation for Educational Choice

[email protected]

North Carolina

K-12 & School Choice SurveyWhat Do Voters Say About K-12 Education?

edchoice.orgThe Friedman Foundation For Educational Choice | edchoice.org

About the Friedman Foundation• Established in 1996• Headquarters in Indianapolis, IN• 501(c)(3) / Nonpartisan / Nonprofit• What do we do?

Working with local and state partners,

we are committed to research, education, and outreach on the vital issues and implications

related to choice and competition in K-12 education.


Why did we do this poll?

• NC public opinion wrt school choice

• K-12/policy conversations

• seek fresh perspectives

• assess/compare to other states


North Carolina’s K-12 Profile

Average State Rank on NAEP 22

High School Graduation Rate 80.2%

# Regular Public School Students 1,436,162# Charter School Students 44,829# Private School Students 96,096# Home School Students 79,693

% Regular Public School Students 86.6%% Charter School Students 2.7%% Private School Students 5.8%% Home School Students 4.8%

# School Districts 115# Regular Public Schools 2,592# Charter Schools 96# Private Schools 569

$ Revenue Per Student $9,101$ “Total” Per Student Spending $9,729$ “Current” Per Student Spending $8,518


Survey Project & Profile

Interview Dates: June 18 to 24, 2012

Interview Method: Live Telephone | 70% landline and 30% cell phone

Sample Frame: Registered Voters

Sampling Method: Dual Frame; Probability Sampling; RDD

Sample Sizes: NORTH CAROLINA = 601Charlotte = 164; Raleigh-Durham = 183

Margins of Error: NORTH CAROLINA = ± 4.0 percentage points Charlotte = ± 7.6 percentage pointsRaleigh-Durham =± 7.2 percentage points Each Split Sample = ± 5.6 percentage points

Response Rates: Landline (LL) = 17.0%Cell Phone = 16.5%

Weighting? Yes (Age, Gender, Race, Ethnicity, and Region)

Oversampling? No


Survey Snapshots


Considering…

~ Levels

~ Differences (Favor – Oppose)

~ Intensities (Strong Favor – Strong Oppose)


What do registered voters say about

K-12 Education in North Carolina?


• Parents (35%) are more likely than non-parents (25%) to see things going in the right direction.

• Democrats (34%) are significantly more likely to think things are going in the right direction, compared to Republicans (23%).

• Parents are more likely to express positive ratings for public schools (51%), compared to non-parents (42%).

• About half of Democrats (50%) and Independents (53%) gave positive ratings to the state’s public school system, compared to Republicans (32%).


What do voters know about

spending in K-12 Education?


How do respondents grade schools in their communities?

What type of school is first preference?


Q9. What is the most important characteristic or attribute that would cause you to choose a [INSERT SCHOOL TYPE FROM PREVIOUS QUESTION] for your child? Please use one word, or a very short phrase.

Specific impressions offered by respondents in the statewide sample. Numbers represent counts (n), not percentages.

BETTER EDUCATION / QUALITY 101

INDIVIDUAL ATTENTION / ONE-ON-ONE 89

CLASS SIZE / STUDENT-TEACHER RATIO 60

BETTER TEACHERS / TEACHERS / TEACHING 49


How much do voters know about

structural reforms in K-12 Education?


What do voters say

about charter schools?


• Large positive net support (+50 net) favoring charter schools. The enthusiasm is also very positive (+24 intensity).

• Approximately 71% of parents favor charter schools.

• Democrats significantly differ from Republicans, although both groups overwhelmingly support charter schools (62% and 71%, respectively).

• Intensity is greatest among parents, urban and suburban voters, Republicans, middle-age voters, households earning $50,000 or more, and whites. There is relatively weaker intensity (but still positive) among small-town voters, younger voters (age 18 to 29), and households earning less than $25,000.


… tax-credit scholarships?


… school vouchers?


• Large positive net support (+25 net) favoring vouchers. The enthusiasm is also very positive (+14 intensity).

• Net support for school vouchers is highest among parents, Charlotte residents, urban voters, Republicans, young voters, middle-age voters, households earning less than $50,000, and African Americans.

• Enthusiasm for this kind of policy is highest among parents, Charlotte residents, Greensboro residents, urban voters, suburban voters, small-town voters, Republicans, young voters, middle-age voters, and households earning less than $50,000.


… education savings accounts?


• For version A, the net support is large (+28 net) with solid enthusiasm (+17 intensity). By comparison, for version B, the net support is +16 points, with relatively less enthusiasm (+5 intensity).

• Net support is highest among parents (+55 net), Republicans (+41 net), and middle-age voters (+50 net) for version A. Similar for B.

• Enthusiasm for ESAs is highest among: Parents (+34 intensity for A; +20 intensity for B); Charlotte residents (+23 intensity for A; +12 intensity for B); Suburbanites (+28 intensity for A; +10 intensity for B); Middle-age voters (+24 intensity for A; +20 intensity for B); African Americans (+23 intensity for A; +16 intensity for B).


• Net support for “universal” eligibility is +37 points, compared to –24 points for “targeted” eligibility.

• The strength of intensity between questions are mirror opposites: For universal eligibility, there is solid positive intensity (+24). By comparison, for targeted eligibility, there is considerable negative intensity (-19).


Broad Points | What did we learn?

• negative about direction of K-12• mixed/lean negative: public

schools• positive: private schools • support for school choice policies

across most demographics positive differences positive intensities

• eligibility: universal > targeted

Thank You

Questions, Comments, or Suggestions?

Contact: Paul DiPerna, [email protected]


K-12, Right Direction vs. Wrong Track State Rankings By Net Score

State Right Direction Wrong TrackRank % %

1t Kansas 49 38 + 11 602 Jul/10

1t Montana 49 38 + 11 604 Apr/12

3 Alaska 46 39 + 7 1,006 Sep/11

4 Arkansas 46 41 + 5 603 Jul/10

5 New Jersey 39 39 even 602 Jul/10

6 Mississippi 41 52 - 11 603 Jul/10

7 Tennessee 36 50 - 14 606 Feb/12

8 Louisiana 34 50 - 16 802 Feb/12

9 New York 36 53 - 17 603 Jul/10

10 Alabama 35 53 - 18 601 Jul/10

11 New Mexico 34 52 - 18 808 Sep/11

12t Indiana 31 52 - 21 1,017 Nov/10

12t Washington 31 52 - 21 602 Feb/12

14 Idaho 31 57 - 26 1,202 Nov/11

15 North Carolina 29 55 - 26 601 Jun/12

SOURCE: Friedman Foundation for Educational Choice

State Mo/YrN=Net


Rating the State’s Public School SystemState Rankings By Net Score

State Good / Excellent Fair / PoorRank % %

1 Montana 60 28 + 32 + 9 604 Apr/12

2 Kansas 63 35 + 28 + 4 602 Jul/10

3 Washington 52 44 + 8 - 3 602 Feb/12

4 New Jersey 52 45 + 7 - 2 602 Jul/10

5 Alaska 48 47 + 1 - 3 490 Sep/11

6 Arkansas 48 48 even - 6 603 Jul/10

7 Tennessee 47 49 - 2 - 6 606 Feb/12

8 Idaho 46 51 - 5 - 8 1,202 Nov/11

9 North Carolina 45 52 - 7 - 6 601 Jun/12

10 Indiana 42 55 - 13 - 11 1,017 Nov/10

11 New York 43 56 - 13 - 14 603 Jul/10

12 Mississippi 42 57 - 15 - 12 603 Jul/10

13 Alabama 40 58 - 18 - 16 601 Jul/10

14 Louisiana 34 63 - 29 - 20 802 Feb/12

15 New Mexico 32 65 - 33 - 19 808 Sep/11


State N= Mo/YrNet Intensity


School Type PreferencesBy State Survey

RegularPublic School

Alabama 38 40 8 11 601 Jul/10

Alaska 39 30 15 11 1,006 Sep/11

Arkansas 37 33 12 14 603 Jul/10

Idaho 38 27 22 8 1,202 Nov/11

Indiana 38 41 10 7 1,017 Nov/10

Kansas 40 35 13 9 602 Jul/10

Louisiana 31 49 10 8 802 Feb/12

Mississippi 43 38 8 10 603 Jul/10

Montana 50 28 9 10 604 Apr/12

New Jersey 40 39 12 7 602 Jul/10

New Mexico 37 36 15 9 808 Sep/11

New York 29 49 14 7 603 Jul/10

North Carolina 34 39 15 11 601 Jun/12

Tennessee 40 40 9 8 606 Feb/12

Washington 40 35 14 7 602 Feb/12


State N= Mo/YrPrivate School Charter School Homeschool


Education Savings Accounts (ESAs), Favor vs. OpposeState Rankings By Net Score

State Favor OpposeRank % %

1 Alaska 61 27 + 34 + 18 1,006 Sep/11

2 North Carolina 56 28 + 28 + 18 302 Jun/12

3 Washington 57 31 + 26 + 7 602 Feb/12

4 Tennessee 56 31 + 25 + 12 606 Feb/12

5 Montana 55 31 + 24 + 7 604 Apr/12

6 New Mexico 57 35 + 22 + 10 808 Sep/11

7 Idaho 53 32 + 21 + 4 1,202 Nov/11

Mo/Yr


State Net Intensity N=


School Vouchers, Favor vs. OpposeState Rankings By Net Score


1 Mississippi 74 20 + 54 + 33 603 Jul/10

2 New Jersey 69 26 + 43 + 20 602 Jul/10

3 Indiana 66 25 + 41 + 24 1,017 Nov/10

4 New York 66 26 + 40 + 26 603 Jul/10

5 Alaska 64 29 + 35 + 16 1,006 Sep/11

6 Louisiana 63 29 + 34 + 21 802 Feb/12

7 Alabama 62 28 + 34 + 16 601 Jul/10

8 New Mexico 62 31 + 31 + 15 808 Sep/11

9 Arkansas 60 30 + 30 + 21 603 Jul/10

10 Tennessee 59 31 + 28 + 11 606 Feb/12


12 Kansas 57 36 + 21 + 14 602 Jul/10

13 Idaho 56 35 + 21 + 9 1,202 Nov/11

14 Washington 55 35 + 20 + 4 602 Feb/12

15 Montana 52 39 + 13 + 4 604 Apr/12

Mo/YrIntensity


State Net N=


Tax-Credit Scholarships, Favor vs. OpposeState Rankings By Net Score


1 New York 70 22 + 48 + 23 603 Jul/10

2 New Jersey 69 23 + 46 + 22 602 Jul/10

3 Alaska 64 18 + 46 + 24 490 Sep/11

4 Arkansas 65 24 + 41 + 22 603 Jul/10

5 Mississippi 65 24 + 41 + 20 603 Jul/10

6 Indiana 63 22 + 41 + 15 1,017 Nov/10

7 Idaho 60 21 + 39 + 13 1,202 Nov/11


9 New Mexico 62 26 + 36 + 8 388 Sep/11

10 Alabama 60 25 + 35 + 15 601 Jul/10

11 Tennessee 61 26 + 35 + 14 303 Feb/12

12 Washington 59 25 + 34 + 10 301 Feb/12

13 Montana 59 28 + 31 + 13 302 Apr/12

14 Kansas 56 29 + 27 + 11 602 Jul/10

Mo/YrIntensity


State Net N=


Charter Schools, Favor vs. OpposeState Rankings By Net Score


1 Alaska 72 11 + 61 + 30 490 Sep/11

2 New Mexico 72 18 + 54 + 23 808 Sep/11

3 Idaho 69 17 + 52 + 25 1,202 Nov/11

4 New Jersey 70 19 + 51 + 19 602 Jul/10


6 Indiana 66 17 + 49 + 20 1,017 Nov/10

7 New York 68 20 + 48 + 25 603 Jul/10

8 Tennessee 61 18 + 43 + 14 606 Feb/12

9 Kansas 62 20 + 42 + 19 602 Jul/10

10 Mississippi 62 20 + 42 + 16 603 Jul/10

11 Louisiana 61 22 + 39 + 19 802 Feb/12

12 Arkansas 60 23 + 37 + 16 603 Jul/10

13 Washington 60 23 + 37 + 14 602 Feb/12

14 Alabama 58 21 + 37 + 14 601 Jul/10

15 Montana 54 21 + 33 +11 604 Apr/12

Mo/YrIntensity


State Net N=

north carolina poll slides (2012)

News & Politics

educational choice

orgthe friedman foundation

school choice surveywhat

type of school

charter school students

school districts115

private school students

home school students79