North Carolina Aging Demographics

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Last updated October 2007

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Population Is Getting Older Older adults are the fastest growing segment of North

Carolina’s population. Number of elderly people (65+) in the state will more

than double between 2000 and 2030, increasing from 969,000 in 2000 to 2.145 million by 2030.

Number of oldest old (85+) will much more than double during this time period, increasing from 105,000 in 2000 to 258,000 in 2030.

Reasons include: natural increase (births minus deaths), increased life expectancies, and net migration into the state.

Source of data: North Carolina State Demographics Unit, “Past and Expected Trends.”

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

65+ Population in 1990 Counties with over 15% of total population 65+

Source of data: North Carolina State Demographics Unit, Census 1990.

Statewide: 12%

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

65+ Population in 2000Counties with over 15% of total population 65+

Source of data: North Carolina State Demographics Unit, Census 2000.

Statewide: 12%

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

65+ Population in 2020Counties with over 15% of total population 65+

Source of data: North Carolina State Demographics Unit, “Projected County Totals – Standard Age Groups,” July 1, 2020.

Statewide: 15%

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Population Shift in North CarolinaPercent of Population by Age Group (1970-2030)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Perc

ent

of

Popula

tion

60+

35-59

20-34

0-19

Source of data: U.S. Census Bureau and North Carolina State Demographics Unit.

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Life Expectancies At Birth

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Years

WhiteFemale

NonwhiteFemale

White Male

NonwhiteMale

Source of data: North Carolina State Demographics Unit, “North Carolina Life Expectancies.”

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Life Expectancies at Age 65

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Years

WhiteFemale

NonwhiteFemale

White Male

NonwhiteMale

Source of data: North Carolina State Demographics Unit, “North Carolina Life Expectancies.”

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

66.6

59.3

62.4

53.3

13

16.5

10.6

14.7

10 30 50 70 90

White women

Nonwhite women

White men

Nonwhite men

Years

years of healthy life years of poor health

How Many Years of Good Health?

Source of data: CDC, Chronic Disease Notes & Reports, vol. 16, no. 2/3 (2004).

Minority men and women in North Carolina don't live as long as whites, yet they have more years of poor health.

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Leading Causes of DeathNorth Carolina Residents Age 65+ (2005)

Source of data: North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics, North Carolina Vital Statistics, Volume 2: Leading Causes of Death – 2005. Table A: Leading Causes of Death by Age Group.

Chronic diseases are responsible for 65% of all deaths in North Carolina. Many of the leading causes of death for North Carolinians – including heart disease and diabetes – can be prevented.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Causes of Death

Num

ber

of

People

Heart Disease

Cancer

Cerebrovascular Disease Chronic

Respiratory Diseases

Alzheimer’sDiabetes

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

More Older WomenNorth Carolina Population by Gender and Age (2005)

All Ages

Age 65+

Female50.7%

Male49.3% Female

59%

Male41%

Age 85+

Female71.8%

Male28.2%

Source of data: North Carolina State Demographics Unit, “County/State Population Estimates,” Certified 2005.

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Racial & Ethnic DifferencesComposition of 65+ Population (2005 estimates)

*Note: Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race; estimates for “Some other Race” in NC is .2% and “Two or More Races” in NC is .4%.Source of data: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey.

Overall U.S.

White: 85.3%

Black: 8.3%

American Indian: .5%

Asian: 3.2%

Some Other Race: 2%

Two or More Races: .7%

Hispanic*: 6.4%

American Indian.9%

Black 15.5%

Hispanic*.8%

White 82.3%

Asian .7%

In North Carolina:

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Proportion of Older Minorities

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030

Pe

rce

nt

of

65

+ P

op

ula

tio

n

NonwhiteWhite

Source of data: North Carolina State Demographics Unit, “County/State Population Projections.”

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Educational Attainment Education Levels of Older Adults (2000)

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000

less than 9th grade

some HS, no degree

HS degree

some college, no degree

associates degree

bachelors degree

graduate degree

Number of adults in NC aged 65+

Males Females

Source of data: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Supplementary Survey, Table PCT033.

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Older Adults Migrate to North CarolinaNumber of adults age 60+ who lived in a different state 5 years earlier

Source of data: 1970-1990 data from Dr. Charles Longino; 2000 data from Internal Migration of the Older Population: 1995 to 2000 (CENSR-10).

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1970 1980 1990 2000

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Net Migration

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

North Carolina vs. NationwidePercent of 65+ population (2005 estimates)

32.8%

15.4%

43%

11.7% 14.7%

40.5%

9.9%

27.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

WithoutHigh School

degree

Belowpoverty level

With adisability

In the laborforce

NC

US

Source of data: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey.

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Older Workers in North CarolinaPercent of NC population in the labor force (2000)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

MaleFemale

Source of data: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Supplementary Survey Table PCT047.

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Health Professionals In Short Supply

Source: North Carolina Rural Health Research Program, Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

Medicaid Eligibility of Older Adults in NC

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Num

ber

of

65+

Source: NC Division of Medical Assistance, Medicaid in North Carolina: Annual Report State Fiscal Year 2006.

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

North Carolina Population Pyramids (1960 & 1990)

Source of chart: UNC Chapel Hill, School of Social Work, CARES & NC Division of Aging.

Prepared by the UNC Institute on Aging

North Carolina Population Pyramid (2020 projection)

Source of chart: UNC Chapel Hill, School of Social Work, CARES & NC Division of Aging