north america inbound tourism outlook - amazon s3 · north america latin america middle east &...
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North America InboundTourism OutlookSeptember 2018
2
Top Global Markets 2022
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
Kuala Lumpur (MY)
Changsha, Hunan (CN)
London (UK)
Suzhou, Jiangsu (CN)
Tehran (IR)
Lahore (PK)
Qingdao, Shandong (CN)
Ningbo, Zhejiang (CN)
Hokkaido (JP)
Las Vegas, NV (US)
Acapulco (MX)
Nanjing, Jiangsu (CN)
New York, NY (US)
Hong Kong, China (HK)
Shenyang, Liaoning (CN)
Chengdu, Sichuan (CN)
Bangkok (TH)
Hangzhou, Zhejiang (CN)
Tokyo (JP)
Wuhan, Hubei (CN)
Beijing (CN)
Karachi (PK)
Mexico City (MX)
Shanghai (CN)
Chongqing (CN)
2017
2022
Global cities: total domestic and inbound arrivals Top 25 markets, 2022
Arrivals (mns)
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Cancún (MX)
Orlando, FL (US)
Prague (CZ)
Amsterdam (NL)
Shanghai (CN)
Osaka (JP)
Los Angeles, CA (US)
Guangzhou,…
Barcelona (ES)
Tunis (TN)
Rome (IT)
Kuwait City (KW)
Paris (FR)
Antalya (TR)
Shenzhen (CN)
Tokyo (JP)
Istanbul (TR)
New York, NY (US)
Singapore (SG)
Kuala Lumpur (MY)
London (UK)
Dubai (AE)
Macao, China (MO)
Bangkok (TH)
Hong Kong, China (HK)
2017
2022
Global cities: international arrivals Top 25 markets, 2022
Arrivals (mns)
Economist: Adam Sacks, President of TE | Tel: +1.610.995.9401 | e-mail: [email protected]
Markets shown above are the world's 25 largest city destinations ranked according to expected total arrivals in 2022. The left-hand chart includes both domestic and international arrivals. The right-hand chart shows international arrivals only. Both charts show each city destination's size in 2022 as well as its size in 2017.
3
North America in Perspective
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Middle East & Africa
Latin America
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America in the context of global arrivalsNo. of arrivals (000s)
Economist: Adam Sacks, President of TE | Tel: +1.610.995.9401 | e-mail: [email protected]
24%
50%
10%
5%
11%
Asia Pacific
Europe
North America
Latin America
Middle East & Africa
Share of international travel by regionNo. of arrivals (000s), 2017% share of global arrivals, 2017
In 2001, North America received 14% of total global visitors. However, despite growth in arrivals its share has since diminished. Growth in recent years has been hampered by the strength of the US dollar for long-haul travel to the US.
The rate of economic growth in Asiaand household wealth accumulation has createddemand that did not previously exist, with theemergence of a new travel class in emergingmarkets such as China. Much of the new tourismdemand has been for short-haul destinations, andnotably within Asia. However, some North America has gained some demand from these emerging markets and stymied its loss of share to a degree.
Many of the largest city destinations in the worldfor international travel are within North America and are set to enjoy continued growth in demand, even if this involves some loss of global market share.
The charts opposite show total international arrivals to country destinations at a regional level. For example, Europe includes total international arrivals at all European country destinations included within the Global Country Travel service.
The top chart shows the total number of international arrivals growing over time since 2001 (with some decline following the global financial crisis in 2007-08) and the proportion of total arrivals owing to each region of the world.
The bottom chart gives a snapshot based on 2017 arrivals, by which point North America's share of total arrivals was 10%.
4
Top North American Markets, Arrivals 2017 vs. 2022
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Mexico City
Acapulco
New York, NY
Las Vegas, NV
Cancún
Guadalajara
Orlando, FL
Los Angeles, CA
Chicago, IL
Washington DC
Domestic Arrivals
International Arrivals
North American cities: total arrivals Top 10 markets, 2017
Arrivals (mns)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
New York, NY
Los Angeles, CA
Cancún
Orlando, FL
Miami, FL
Las Vegas, NV
San Francisco, CA
Mexico City
Honolulu, HI
Houston, TX
North American cities: international arrivals Top 10 markets, 2017
Arrivals (mns)
Economist: Adam Sacks, President of TE | Tel: +1.610.995.9401 | e-mail: [email protected]
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Mexico City
New York, NY
Acapulco
Las Vegas, NV
Cancún
Orlando, FL
Los Angeles, CA
Guadalajara
Chicago, IL
Houston, TX
Domestic
International
North American cities: total arrivals Top 10 markets, 2022
Arrivals (mns)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
New York, NY
Los Angeles, CA
Orlando, FL
Cancún
Miami, FL
Las Vegas, NV
San Francisco, CA
Mexico City
Honolulu, HI
Houston, TX
North American cities: international arrivals Top 10 markets, 2022
Arrivals (mns)
5
Top North American Markets, Expenditure 2017 vs. 2022
0 10 20 30 40 50
New York, NY
Las Vegas, NV
Los Angeles, CA
Orlando, FL
Cancún
San Francisco, CA
Washington DC
Miami, FL
Honolulu, HI
Chicago, IL
US$bns
Domestic
International
North American cities: total expenditureTop 10 markets, 2017
Economist: Adam Sacks, President of TE | Tel: +1.610.995.9401 | e-mail: [email protected]
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
New York, NY
Los Angeles, CA
Honolulu, HI
San Francisco, CA
Miami, FL
Las Vegas, NV
Cancún
Orlando, FL
Washington DC
Boston, MA
US$bns
North American cities: international expenditureTop 10 markets, 2017
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
New York, NY
Las Vegas, NV
Los Angeles, CA
Cancún
Orlando, FL
San Francisco, CA
Mexico City
Washington DC
Miami, FL
Honolulu, HI
US$bns
Domestic
International
North American cities: total expenditureTop 10 markets, 2022
0 10 20 30 40
New York, NY
Los Angeles, CA
San Francisco, CA
Cancún
Honolulu, HI
Las Vegas, NV
Miami, FL
Orlando, FL
Washington DC
Boston, MA
US$bns
North American cities: international expenditureTop 10 markets, 2022
6
North American Source Markets 2022
Cancún
Mexico City
Toronto
Vancouver
Guadalajara
Monterrey
Tijuana
Calgary
Montréal
Edmonton Other
Top city destinations, foreign travel from USATop 10 markets, 2017
San Antonio, TX
Houston, TX
Los Angeles, CA
Dallas, TX
El Paso, TX
Las Vegas, NV
Phoenix, AZ
Austin, TX
Riverside, CA
San Francisco,
CA
Other
Top city destinations, foreign travel from MexicoTop 10 markets, 2017
Economist: Adam Sacks, President of TE | Tel: +1.610.995.9401 | e-mail: [email protected]
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Cancún
Guadalajara
Montréal
Edmonton
Monterrey
Calgary
Mexico City
Tijuana
Toronto
Vancouver
Expected arrivals growth, top destinations from USACity destinations based on 2017 levels
CAGR, 2017-220.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Phoenix, AZ
San Francisco, CA
Houston, TX
Dallas, TX
Riverside, CA
El Paso, TX
Las Vegas, NV
Austin, TX
San Antonio, TX
Los Angeles, CA
Expected arrivals growth, top destinations from MexicoCity destinations based on 2017 levels
CAGR, 2017-22
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
Cancún
Seattle, WA
Los Angeles, CA
Phoenix, AZ
Detroit, MI
Tampa-St. Pete., FL
Boston, MA
New York, NY
Las Vegas, NV
Orlando, FL
Expected arrivals growth, top destinations from CanadaCity destinations based on 2017 levels
CAGR, 2017-22
Seattle, WA
Las Vegas, NV
Orlando, FL
New York, NY
Cancún
Detroit, MI
Los Angeles, CA
Boston, MA Phoenix, AZ Tampa-St. Pete., FL
Other
Top city destinations, foreign travel from CanadaTop 10 markets, 2017
7
Largest Asia-Pacific Source Markets 2022
Economist: Adam Sacks, President of TE | Tel: +1.610.995.9401 | e-mail: [email protected]
0% 1% 2% 3%
Las Vegas, NV
Washington DC
Chicago, IL
Boston, MA
San Francisco, CA
Honolulu, HI
Los Angeles, CA
San Jose, CA
Orlando, FL
New York, NY
Expected arrivals growth, top destinations from JapanCity destinations based on 2017 levels
CAGR, 2017-22
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Los Angeles, CA
Washington DC
Las Vegas, NV
Riverside, CA
Atlanta, GA
New York, NY
Honolulu, HI
San Francisco, CA
Chicago, IL
Seattle, WA
Expected arrivals growth, top destinations from S.KoreaCity destinations based on 2017 levels
CAGR, 2017-22
Honolulu, HI
New York, NY
Los Angeles, CA
Las Vegas, NV
San Francisco,
CA
Orlando, FL
Chicago, IL
Washington DC
Boston, MA
San Jose, CA
Other
Top city destinations, foreign travel from JapanTop 10 markets, 2017
New York, NY
Los Angeles, CA
Honolulu, HI
Las Vegas, NV
San Francisco,
CA
Washington DC
Atlanta, GA
Seattle, WA
Chicago, IL
Riverside, CA
Other
Top city destinations, foreign travel from S.K.Top 10 markets, 2017
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NY
San Francisco,
CA Las Vegas,
NV Boston, MA Honolulu, HI
Riverside, CA
Seattle, WA
Washington DC
Chicago, IL
Other
Top city destinations, foreign travel from ChinaTop 10 markets, 2017
0% 5% 10%
Washington DC
Los Angeles, CA
San Francisco, CA
Riverside, CA
Seattle, WA
Chicago, IL
New York, NY
Honolulu, HI
Las Vegas, NV
Boston, MA
Expected arrivals growth, top destinations from ChinaCity destinations based on 2017 levels
CAGR, 2017-22
8
Largest EU Source Markets 2022
Economist: Adam Sacks, President of TE | Tel: +1.610.995.9401 | e-mail: [email protected]
New York, NY
Orlando, FL
Las Vegas, NV
Los Angeles, CA
San Francisco,
CA
Miami, FL
Washington DC
Boston, MA
San Diego, CA
Tampa-St. Pete., FL
Other
Top city destinations for foreign travel from UKTop 10 markets, 2017
New York, NY
San Francisco,
CA
Los Angeles, CA
Miami, FL
Las Vegas, NV
Orlando, FL Washington
DC
San Diego, CA
Detroit, MI
Boston, MA
Other
Top city destinations for foreign travel from GermanyTop 10 markets, 2017
New York, NY
Los Angeles, CA
San Francisco,
CA Miami, FL Washington
DC
Montréal
Las Vegas, NV
Cancún
Boston, MA
Orlando, FL
Other
Top city destinations for foreign travel from FranceTop 10 markets, 2017
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Los Angeles, CA
Washington DC
San Diego, CA
Las Vegas, NV
Tampa-St. Pete., FL
Miami, FL
New York, NY
Boston, MA
Orlando, FL
San Francisco, CA
Expected arrivals growth for top destinations from UKCity destinations based on 2017 levels
CAGR, 2017-22
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NY
Las Vegas, NV
Miami, FL
Detroit, MI
Washington DC
San Diego, CA
Boston, MA
Orlando, FL
San Francisco, CA
Expected arrivals growth for top destinations from GermanyCity destinations based on 2017 levels
CAGR, 2017-22
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Cancún
Washington DC
Miami, FL
Los Angeles, CA
Las Vegas, NV
San Francisco, CA
Boston, MA
New York, NY
Montréal
Orlando, FL
Expected arrivals growth for top destinations from FranceCity destinations based on 2017 levels
CAGR, 2017-22
9
Importance of Tourism
MRE
TOR
VAN
CUN
BOS
CHI
CLE
DLX
LAS
LAX
MSY
ORL
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
North American cities: foreign arrivals growth vs GDP growthIn cities above the line tourism leads economic growth and below tourism lags economic growth
Arrivals CAGR, 2012-17
GDP CAGR, 2012-17Source: Oxford Economics
Economist: Adam Sacks, President of TE | Tel: +1.610.995.9401 | e-mail: [email protected]
Tourism can play an important role in the context of economic growth. Tourism can provide jobs and improve the wealth of an area and many cities are keen to develop tourism in order to become richer and to improve the quality of life for their inhabitants.
The chart opposite shows the full complement of North American city destinations included within the Global City Travel service (however, not all are labelled) The cities labelled are outlying significant city destiantions. It charts historical tourism growth (in the form of overnight arrivals) against GDP growth over a 5-year period spanning 2012-17, with growth given as the average rate per annum over that period.
Above the dotted line are those city destinations where tourim growth outpaced economic growth over the period (tourism leading economies). Below the dotted line are those city destinations where tourism growth fell short of economic growth over the period (tourism lagging economies).
The majority of North American city destinations had tourism leading economies over the 2012-17 period.
LegendBOS - Boston, MA LAX - Los Angeles, CACHI - Chicago, IL MRE - MontrealCLE - Cleveland, OH MSY - New Orleans, LACUN - Cancún ORL - Orlando, FL DLX - Dallas,TX TOR - Toronto
10
Future Importance of Tourism
MRE
CUN
BOS
CHI
CLE
DLXLAS
LAX
MSY
ORL
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
North American cities: foreign arrivals growth vs GDP growthIn cities above the line tourism leads economic growth and below tourism lags economic growth
Arrivals CAGR, 2017-22
GDP CAGR, 2017-22
Source: Oxford Economics
Economist: Adam Sacks, President of TE | Tel: +1.610.995.9401 | e-mail: [email protected]
The chart opposite shows the full complement of North American city destinations included within the Global City Travel service (however, not all are labelled). The cities labelled are
outlying significant city destiantions. It charts
expected tourism growth (in the form of overnight arrivals) against GDP growth over a 5-year period spanning 2017-22, with growth given as the average rate per annum over that period.
Above the dotted line are those city destinations where tourim growth is expected to outpace economic growth over the period (tourism leading economies). Below the dotted line are those city destinations where tourism growth is expected to fall short of economic growth over the period (tourism lagging economies).
The vast majority of North American city destinations are expected to have tourism leading economies over the 2017-22 period.
LegendBOS - Boston, MA LAX - Los Angeles, CACHI - Chicago, IL MRE - MontrealCLE - Cleveland, OH MSY - New Orleans, LA CUN - Cancún ORL - Orlando, FLDLX - Dallas,TX TOR - Toronto
11
Market Size versus Market Growth
NYC
LAS
CUN
ORL
LAX
HKA
TOR
AZI
PHX
PHL
SAT
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
North American cities: international arrivals vs historical growthTop 25 markets ranked by international arrivals, 2017
CAGR, 2012-17
Arrivals (mns)
Economist: Adam Sacks, President of TE | Tel: +1.610.995.9401 | e-mail: [email protected]
MEX
NYC
LAS
CUN
LAX
GDL
HKA
AZI
TTE
PHX
RAL
SAT
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
North American cities: international arrivals vs forecast growthTop 25 markets ranked by international arrivals, 2022
CAGR, 2015-20
Arrivals (mns)
The charts opposite shows the top North American city destinations (as included within the Global City Travel service) in terms of international arrivals in 2017 (top) and expected international arrivals in 2022 (bottom). Arrivals are plotted relative to average per annum growth over the periods 2012-17 and 2017-22 respectively.
Mexico city was the largest North American city destination in 2017 and is expected to remain as the largest to 2022. However, some faster growth is expected in the forecast period compared to the historical period (0.4% vs. 2.5%).
Acapulco was the second largest North American city destination in 2017 but is expected to be overtaken by New York by 2022. Tourism growth to New York is expected to be somewhat slower in the forecast period (2017-22) compared to the historical growth period (2012-17).
LegendCUN - Cancún DET - Detroit, MIHKA - Houston, TXLAS - Las Vegas, NV LAX - Los Angeles, CAMEX - Mexico CityNYC - New york, NYORL - Orlando, FLPHL - Philadelphia, PAPHX - Phoenix, AZTOR - Toronto
LegendCUN - Cancún DET - Detroit, MIHKA - Houston, TXLAS - Las Vegas, NV LAX - Los Angeles, CAMEX - Mexico CityNYC - New york, NYORL - Orlando, FLPHL - Philadelphia, PAPHX - Phoenix, AZTOR - TorontoWAS - Washington DC
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About Us
Economist: Adam Sacks, President of TE | Tel: +1.610.995.9401 | e-mail: [email protected]
Tourism Economics
Tourism Economics is an Oxford Economics company with a singular focus on quantitative analysis of the travel industry. By combining rigorous modeling with industry knowledge, Tourism Economics develops custom market strategies, industry forecasts, policy analysis and economic impact studies. Our parent company, Oxford Economics, is one of the world's leading providers of economic analysis, forecasts and consulting advice. Founded in 1981 as a joint venture with Oxford University's business college, Oxford Economics enjoys a reputation for high quality, quatitative analysis and evidence-based advice.
Contacts
North American Clients:Adam Sacks ([email protected]), or;Aran Ryan ([email protected])
Non-North American Clients:David Goodger ([email protected]), or; Helen McDermott ([email protected])