norges bank 1 executive board meeting 11 august 2005
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Norges Bank
1
Executive Board meeting11 August 2005
![Page 2: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Norges Bank
2
Growth forecasts Consensus Forecasts
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
World NorthAmerica
WesternEurope
Japan Asiaexcl.
Japan 1)
EasternEurope
LatinAmerica
Forecasts March Forecasts JuneForecasts July
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
World NorthAmerica
WesternEurope
Japan Asiaexcl.
Japan 1)
EasternEurope
LatinAmerica
Forecasts March Forecasts JuneForecasts July
Source: Consensus Forecasts
2005 2006
1) China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines
![Page 3: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Norges Bank
3Source: EcoWin\ Eurostat
Quarterly change in US GDPAnnualised contribution to growth in volume.
Per cent. Seasonally adjusted
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Private consumption Private investment
Inventories Net exports
Public consumption and investment GDP
![Page 4: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Norges Bank
4
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Source: EcoWin / National statistics
CPI/HICP in the US, the euro area, and Japan
Percentage change on same month previous year
US
Euro area
Japan
UK Germany
![Page 5: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Norges Bank
5
Consumer prices in the Nordic countriesPercentage change on same month previous year
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2002 2003 2004 2005
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Source: EcoWin / National statistics
Norway (CPI-ATE)
Sweden(UND1X)
Denmark*Sweden
(UND1X excl. energy)
* CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco
Finland
![Page 6: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Norges Bank
6
Developments in 10-year government bond yields
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Jul 04 Oct 04 Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Germany
Norway
US
IR
China
London:
Source: EcoWin / National statistics
![Page 7: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Norges Bank
7
Movements in stock exchange sub-indices. Total return, indexed. 3 Jan 2005 = 100
80
100
120
140
160
jan mar mai jul
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan Mar May Jul
Source: EcoWin1) Calculated as the average of the IT and telecom indices2) Estimated as the average of the industrials and materials indices
Norway World
ICT1)
Financials
Industrials 2)
Energy
ICT1)
FinancialsIndustrials
Energy
![Page 8: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Norges Bank
8
Interest rate expectations for the US, the euro area, the UK and Sweden
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jun 03 Dec 03 Jun 04 Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06 Dec 06
0
1
2
3
4
5
Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank
US
Euro area
9 August
28 June
Sweden
UK
![Page 9: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Norges Bank
9
Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices Daily figures, USD per barrel. Jan 2002 – Aug 2005
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
10
20
30
40
50
60
708 August
Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank
24 June (IR 2/05)
![Page 10: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Norges Bank
10
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
Difference between oil price for delivery next month and 6-7 years ahead
USD per barrel of light crude. Daily figures. Jan 2004 – Aug 2005
2005
2004
Sources: EcoWin/ NYMEX
![Page 11: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Norges Bank
11
Oil production in NorwayMillion barrels per day. Monthly figures, Jan 2000 – Jun 2005
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Source: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate
Projection from the Norwegian Petroleum
Directorate
Production
![Page 12: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Norges Bank
12
CPI-ATETotal and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services1). Historical price inflation and projections IR 2/05 (broken
line).12-month rise. Per cent
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Dec 03 Apr 04 Aug 04 Dec 04 Apr 05 Aug 05
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7)
1) Norges Bank's projections
Imported consumer goods (0.3)
CPI-ATE
![Page 13: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Norges Bank
13
Prices for imported consumer goods in the CPI and in External Trade Statistics, and in I-44
4-quarter change. Per cent. 98 Q1– 05 Q2
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
1) Norges Bank's projections: Clothing and accessories, footwear, furniture, food and beverages2) Excluding audiovisual equipment and cars
I-44
Imported consumer goodsin External Trade Statistics1)
Imported consumer goods in the CPI2)
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
![Page 14: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Norges Bank
14
2.26
2.27
2.28
2.29
2.30
2.31
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
76
77
78
79
80
81
Number employed in millions and average working hours as a percentage of a normal working week
(37.5 hours). Seasonally adjusted
Source: Statistics Norway
Employed (left-hand scale)
Average working hours as a percentage of a normal working week
(right-hand scale)
![Page 15: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Norges Bank
15
House prices Percentage change on same month previous year
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sources: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF)
![Page 16: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Norges Bank
16
Business tendency surveyBusiness climate index
Seasonally differentiated diffusion index
Source: Statistics Norway
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
![Page 17: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Norges Bank
17
Total debt non-fin. enterprises mainland Norway (C3) and domestic debt distributed between households
and non-financial enterprises (C2).12-month change. Per cent
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Households (C2)
Non-financial enterprises (C2)
Total debt non-financial enterprises mainland Norway (C3)
![Page 18: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Norges Bank
18
3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)
A fall in value denotes a depreciating currency. Daily figures
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
85
88
91
94
97
100
103
Sources: Norges Bank and Bloomberg
I-44 (right-hand scale)
Weighted 3-month interest rate differential
(left-hand scale)
8 August 2005
28 June 2005
![Page 19: Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 11 August 2005](https://reader036.vdocuments.site/reader036/viewer/2022070409/56649ea05503460f94ba29fa/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Norges Bank
19
Projected CPI-ATE and the output gap in the baseline scenario. Quarterly figures. Per cent. 04 Q1 – 08 Q4
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE
Output gap