NordicESM: A Nordic Infrastructure on Earth System Modeling

Jón Egill Kristjánsson, Univ. Oslo + slides from:

Ingo Bethke, UNI Research, Bergen + Ralf Döscher, SHMI, Norrköping

+ Trond Iversen, MET Norway, Oslo

Overview of talk

• Earth System Modeling in the Nordic countries (model tools, science, computational issues/challenges

• What is NordicESM? (Objectives, activities)

• Review of kick-off meeting Plans / Ideas

NordicESM

• Objectives

• Partners

• Activities

Earth System Modeling in the Nordic countries

• Motivation

• Model systems: EC-Earth, NorESM

• Computational aspects

CMIP6 IPCC AR6 in 2020?

EC-Earth: A European consortium for Earth System Modeling

29 partner institutes 8 core partners Steering group Work groups

Technical Tuning Atmospheric chemistry and land Ocean Millennium scale studies

(Slides from Ralf Döscher, Rossby Centre/SMHI)

February 2015

After CMIP5: Development towards EC-Earth 3

Tuning advection mass fixer, albedo, ...

Technical improvements new coupler (OASIS-MCT) various

New ocean/sea ice model NEMO3.6/LIM3 indirect aerosol effects convection parameterization, modified CAPE closure (Bechtold, 2014); adjusted entrainment in organized convection

New versions of Atmospheric chemistry (TM5) Dynamic vegetation (LPJ-GUESS) Ocean bio-geo-chemistry (PISCES) (IFS -> OpenIFS)

Time line Start of GCM tuning for EC-Earth 3.2: March 2015 Start of ES tuning for EC-Earth 3.2: July 2015

Annual mean sea ice concentration in EC-Earth 3.1 (with NEMO3.3.1/LIM3)

Upcoming computing needs for CMIP6 in Sweden

estimated requirements # simulated years Total storage

CMIP6 DECK 2000 140 Tb

CMIP6 scenarios 2000 250 Tb

CMIP6 climate prediction 6000 150 Tb

CMIP6 HighResMIP 500 250 TB

CMIP6 Land Use MIP 2000 150 TB

CMIP6 Paleo MIP

CMIP6 Cloud MIP

Total > 12 500 > 940 Tb

For CMIP6 simulations we currently estimate an overall amount of 340 mio core-hours (estimates based on Triolith units) over a period of 5 years (2015-2019). 40 mio core-h for 2015 HPC Resources: SMHI's HPC@NSC SNIC ? PRACE ?

(Slides from Trond Iversen, MET Norway / Univ Oslo)

The Norwegian Earth System Model

NorESM

• NorESM development and application teams in Norway, i.a.:

• MET Norway: A. Grini, Ø. Seland, A. Kirkevåg, J. Debernard, D. Olivie,

I. Seierstad, L. Seland Graff, O. Landgren, M. Schulz, T. Iversen

• Bjerknes/UNI Bergen: M. Bentsen, I. Bethke, J. Tjiputra, H. Drange, C. Heinze,

M. Ilicak and D. Ivanova, H. Lee, A. Sorteberg, T. Toniazzo, L. Ciasto,

N. G. Kvamstø, (+ paleo and dec. pred)

• Univ. Oslo / Cicero: J. E. Kristjánsson, H. Muri, K. Alterskjær, M. Hummel,

T. Berntsen, M. Sand, (C. Hoose, T. Storelvmo)

• NILU: A. Stohl, M. Cassiani

• Co-operation with Stockholm University (i.a. CRAICC):

A. Ekman, E. D. Nilsson, V. Varma, H. Struthers, P. Salter,

P. Glanz, I. Riipinen, H.-C. Hansson

• Co-operation with Univ. Helsinki (CRAICC): R. Makkonen

• USA: CCSM / CESM project, NCAR, PNNL, and contributors

NorESM1 -M / - ME components and interactions

Towards NorESM2 for CMIP6

Probable candidate version:

•CESM1.2 with CAM5.4 (or 5.5), 0.9°x1.25°FV L46 •MG2 + Z&McF clouds; Iacono et al radiation;

•Upgraded CAM-Oslo aerosols integrated with Mozart solver;

•upgraded and extended mechanisms for indirect effects;

•MICOM-based ocean model, 0.25° along equator.

•Upgraded modeling of sea-ice, incl snow on sea-ice.

•Closed N- and C- cycles, oceanic DMS production •Natural methane emissions

Objective of NordicESM

• The overall objective of NordicESM is to

develop a common Nordic platform as

well as a future roadmap, for

collaboration on the use and

development of Earth System Models

for studies of environmental change at

high Northern latitudes

Project Plan – Collaborative Activities

1) Educational perspective for Nordic competence on Earth system modelling

2) Coordinating character towards a pan-Nordic consortium on Earth system modelling

3) Development of recommendations of future pathways for Nordic ESM activities in relation to the European and global scientific community

• The overarching ambition is to ensure continued support for decision making related to climate change in the Nordic countries.

Project duration, Finances

• Runs for 3 years; Dec 2014 – Nov 2017

• Total budget 500 kNOK (≈60 k€)

• Annual meetings

• Training events

• Summer schools / Winter schools

• Costs for educational activities shared with eSTICC, CHESS, SeSE, CSC, etc.

Partner institutions (13 from 5 countries)

• Danish Meteorological Institutes (DMI)

• Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI)

• Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO)

• Lund University (LU), CEC

• Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU)

• Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway)

• Stockholm University (SU), Bolin Centre

• Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)

• University of Bergen (UiB)

• University of Copenhagen (KU)

• University of Eastern Finland (UEF)

• University of Helsinki (UHEL)

• University of Oslo (UiO)

Steering Committee

• Coordinator: Jón Egill Kristjánsson (UiO)

• Deputy: Gunilla Svensson (MISU)

• Jens Hesselbjerg-Christensen (DMI)

• Hannele Korhonen (FMI)

• Guðrún Nína Petersen (IMO)

• Adjoint member: Andreas Stohl (NILU), leader of eSTICC

Vision for end of the decade

• A Nordic Earth system modelling center, with a common modelling framework, in close collaboration with international partners

• An internationally leading role for the Nordic countries in Earth system modelling with a northern high-latitude focus, enabling the Nordic countries to lead major international programs as well as EU projects

• A comprehensive and smoothly operating program of courses on Earth system modelling at Ph.D. level and Masters level, in collaboration with the Nordic universities

Example: Ph.D. level course on Climate Modeling at MISU

• Swedish e-Science Education (SeSE) announces a course on Global Climate Modeling: An Introduction to Climate Modeling introduces advanced numerical research tools that are used to study the global climate in the past, present and future. The course will give good insight into climate change science and the numerical tools that go with it. The course will be given in two modules and

• Module I will be given this semester with lectures and tutorials December 15 - 19 at Stockholm University.

• Module II, that builds strongly on module I, will be given during spring semester 2015. For more information and to register for the course, please visit: http://sese.nu/introduction-to-climate-modeling-ht14

NordicESM Kick-off meeting Oslo

• 24-25 February 2015

• 24 participants from all partner institutions

• Partner presentations

• Working Group sessions Plenary discussions Recommendations for activities in NordicESM

• Steering Committee meeting

Working Group topics

• Suggestions for summer schools / winter schools: topics, duration, timing

• How can / should NordicESM benefit from NeIC?

• How should EC-Earth and NorESM interact? Model ensemble/exchange of modules/other?

• How can NordicESM best contribute to Arctic Earth System science?

1) Summer/winter schools

• Hands-on course on available advanced data analysis tools (such as ESMVAL, NCL)

• Combining observations and modelling (what are obs. uncertainties and how they need to be accounted for when comparing with models; what are modelling uncertainties and what new observations should be designed to address them)

• parameterizations (what do we have currently stimulate students to do things better) [eSTICC]

• state-of-the-art dynamical cores, modern numerical methods, necessary minimum technical skills

• regional downscaling • climate services • impact research

Mauritsen & Stevens (2015: Nat.Geo.)

2) Some thoughts on collaboration NordicESM NeIC

Potential for 50% funding by NeIC Possible cases: • Post-processing of data, e.g. CMOR-ization (needs to happen by

early 2016, but some tools already exist; needs to be bottom-up approach)

• Data workflow and publishing (including how to minimize data transfer)

• Parallelization of analysis tools/visualization • A common service for ESGF data nodes or data flow from model

output to published and quality checked data on the ESGF nodes

3) EC-Earth and NorESM

NordicESM can help identify common research areas, already at this meeting we see several areas such as dynamic vegetation, land modeling, aerosols, blocking

4) NordicESM contribution to Arctic Earth System science

Arctic

Which processes are either missing or inadequately implemented?

Ice sheet modeling, stratosphere (aerosols, chemistry), boreal forests

Modeling groups decide experiments e.g. for Arctic

Connecting ESM modeling to regional climate modeling

Recommendations for next 12 months from NordicESM kick-off Feb 2015

• Information on eScience tools on NordicESM website (http://nordicesm.bitbucket.org)

• Targeted workshop/winter school on model tuning; a 1-day event in connection with the annual meeting in Feb 2016

• Parallelized model data analysis (based on developments at NCAR) in collaboration with NeIC; available to both NordicESM models

• Nordic extension of existing ESM course at MISU (organized by SeSE); students may apply to NordicESM for funds

• Next Annual Meeting: Stockholm early Feb 2016; Training Event on Model Tuning + plan application to PRACE + plan next training event (e.g. tighter coupling models / observations) + start preparing scoping paper

Conclusions

• NordicESM seeks to co-ordinate Nordic Earth System Modeling research + strengthen education on use and development of ESMs for better to advice Nordic policy makers

• Currently two ESMs in the Nordic countries that contribute to IPCC via CMIP: EC-Earth, NorESM; major computational and manpower effort

• Key computational challenges: Data handling / analysis / post-processing, scalability, storage, … - Collaboration with NeIC?

• A sustained long-term commitment to e-infrastructure within the Nordic countries is essential

Thank you!

jegill@geo.uio.no