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Headquarters U.S. Air Force

A Vision for Air Force Science & Technology During 2010-2030

Technology Horizons:

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26 August 2010

Dr. Werner J.A. DahmChief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force

Air Force Pentagon (4E130)Washington, D.C.

26 August 2010AFA Technology Symposium 2010 Cleared for Public Release

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The Air Force is Critically Dependent on Science & Technology Advances

Powered flight

Gas turbine engine

Aerial refueling

Rocket flight

Supersonic flow

Night attack

High-speed flight

Long-range radar

Communications

ICBMs

Space ISR

5th-gen fighters

Global positioning

Precision strike

Space launch

Stealth / LO

Computer simulations

Directed energy

High-power lasers

Hypersonics

Blended wing-body

Long-endurance ISR

Unmanned systems Cyber operations

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The Path from Science and Technology to New Air Force Capabilities

TRL 1: Basic principles observed and reportedTRL 2: Technology concept and/or application formulatedTRL 3: Analytical or experimental proof of conceptTRL 4: Component validation in laboratory environmentTRL 5: Component validation in relevant environmentTRL 6: System/subsystem demonstration in relevant environmentTRL 7: System prototype demonstration in an operational environmentTRL 8: Actual system completed and qualified through test and demoTRL 9: Actual system proven through successful mission operations

Technology Readiness Level (TRL): Definitions

BasicResearch

AppliedResearch

Advanced Technology

Development

Concept Refinement

AdvancedDevelopment

System Development & Demonstration

Production, Fielding,

Sustainment

Budget Activity 1(6.1)

Budget Activity 2(6.2)

Budget Activity 3(6.3) Budget Activity 4

BA 5 BA 6,7

Materiel Development

Decision (MDD) Milestone A Milestone B Milestone C

Research & Development Acquisition

Universities Air Force Research Laboratory

• Low Rate Initial Production (LRIP)• Initial Operational Test & Eval. (IOT&E)• Full Rate Production (FRP)• Initial Operational Capability (IOC)• Field and Sustain

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What New S&T Advances Will Create the Next Generation of USAF Capabilities?

Maintaining superior capabilities over its adversaries requires the Air Force to continually seek new science and technology advances and integrate these into fieldable systems

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U.S. Air Force “Technology Horizons”

SecAF / CSAF Tasking Letter Terms of Reference (TOR)

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Overview of Air Force S&T Visions

Toward New Horizons

(1945)

ProjectForecast

(1964)

New WorldVistas(1995)

TechnologyHorizons

(2010)

1 3 6 7

Woods HoleSummer Study

(1958)

NewHorizons II

(1975)

ProjectForecast II

(1986)

2 4 5

1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2010+Low-impact studies

High-impact studies

“Technology Horizons” is the next in a succession of major S&T vision studies conducted at the Headquarters Air Force level to define the key Air Force S&T investments over the next decade

10+10 Technology-to-Capability Process

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“10+10 Technology-to-Capability” process gives a deductive 20-year horizon view

U.S.Counter-

Capabilities

PotentialAdversary

Capabilities

STEP 110-Years-Forward

Science & TechnologyProjection

10-Years-ForwardCapabilities Projection

STEP 2

10-Years-BackScience & Technology

Investment Need

STEP 4

10-Years-BackCounter-CapabilityTechnology Need

STEP 3

CapabilitiesToday

(2010)

S&TAdvancesin 10 Years

(2020)

ResultingCapabilitiesin 20 Years

(2030)

Future U.S.Capabilities

Air

Space

Cyber

Cross-Domain

Air

Space

Cyber

Cross-Domain

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Broad Range of Inputs to Study

Perspectives from participants in “Technology Horizons” working groups: Air, Space, Cyber, and Cross-Domain groups

Representation on working groups from AFRL, MAJCOMs, NASIC, FFRDCs, industry, and academia

Numerous Air Force operational perspectives from briefings and site visits, including AFMC, ACC, AFSPC, AMC and AFSOC

Site visits, briefings, and discussions with organizations across Air Force, DoD, federal agencies, FFRDCs, national laboratories, and industry

Site visits to in-theater operational bases Additional insights from S&T Cell at Air Force Futures Game 09

including US, CAN, UK and AUS members Studies and reports related to defense science, including Air Force

Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) and Defense Science Board (DSB) Over 200 additional papers, reports, briefings and other sources

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“Technology Horizons” Study Phases

WorkingPhase 2

Air, Space, CyberDomain Working

Groups

WorkingPhase 3

Cross-Domain WorkingGroup

WorkingPhase 4Findings,

Conclusions &Recommendations

“Technology Horizons”

Report and Outbrief

Mar 09 Feb 2010

PlanningPhase 1Objectives,

Tasking, andOrganization,

Jun 09 Oct 09 Dec 09

ImplementationPhase 5

Dissemination of Results and

Implementation

2010+

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Air Force S&T Vision for 2010-2030 from “Technology Horizons”

Overarching Themes for VectoringAir Force S&T During 2010-2030

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Process to Identify Potential Capability Areas and Key Technology Areas

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Potential Capability Areas (1/2)

PCA1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems PCA2: Automated Cyber Vulnerability AssessmentsPCA3: Decision-Quality Prediction of BehaviorPCA4: Augmentation of Human PerformancePCA5: Constructive Environments for Discovery and Training PCA6: Adaptive Flexibly-Autonomous Systems PCA7: Frequency-Agile Spectrum Utilization PCA8: Dominant Spectrum Warfare Operations PCA9: Precision Navigation/Timing in GPS-Denied EnvironmentsPCA10: Next-Generation High-Bandwidth Secure CommunicationsPCA11: Persistent Near-Space Communications RelaysPCA12: Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR SensorsPCA13: High-Altitude Long-Endurance ISR AirshipsPCA14: Prompt Theater-Range ISR/Strike SystemsPCA15: Fractionated, Survivable, Remotely-Piloted Systems

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Potential Capability Areas (2/2)

PCA16: Direct Forward Air Delivery and Resupply PCA17: Energy-Efficient Partially Buoyant Cargo Airlifters PCA18: Fuel-Efficient Hybrid Wing-Body Aircraft PCA19: Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines PCA20: Embedded Diagnostic/Prognostic SubsystemsPCA21: Penetrating Persistent Long-Range StrikePCA22: High-Speed Penetrating Cruise MissilePCA23: Hyperprecision Low-Collateral Damage MunitionsPCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/DefensePCA25: Enhanced Underground Strike with Conventional Munitions PCA26: Reusable Airbreathing Access-to-Space Launch PCA27: Rapidly Composable Small SatellitesPCA28: Fractionated/Distributed Space Systems PCA29: Persistent Space Situational AwarenessPCA30: Improved Orbital Conjunction Prediction

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Mapping Potential Capability Areas to Air Force Service Core Functions

Potential Capability Areas (PCA1-PCA30) span over all 12 Air Force Service Core Functions (SCFs)

Dramatically Increased Use of Highly Adaptable Autonomous Systems

Capability increases, manpower efficiencies, and cost reductions are possible through far greater use of autonomous systems

Dramatic in degree of autonomy and range of systems and processes where autonomous reasoning and control can be applied

Adaptive autonomy can offer time-domain operational advantages over adversaries using human planning and decision loops

S&T to establish “certifiable” trust in highly adaptible autonomous systems is a key to enabling this transformation

Potential adversaries may gain benefits from fielding such systems without any burden of establishing certifiable “trust in autonomy”

As one of the greatest beneficiaries of such autonomous systems, the Air Force must lead in developing the underlying S&T basis


Natural human capacities are becoming increasingly mismatched to data volumes, processing capabilities, and decision speeds that are offered or demanded by technology

S&T to augment human performance will be needed to gain benefits of new technologies

May come from increaed use of autonomous systems, improved man-machine interfaces, or direct augmentation of humans

Augmentation of Human Performance to Better Match Users with Technology


Technologies to Enable Freedom of Operations in Contested Environments

S&T advances are needed in three key areas to enable increased freedom of operations in contested or denied environments

Basic and early applied research are needed to support development of these capabilities

Technologies for increased cyber resilience e.g., massive virtualization, highly

polymorphic networks, agile hypervisors

Technologies to augment or supplant PNT in GPS-denied environments e.g., cold-atom (Bose-Einstein condensate)

INS systems, chip-scale atomic clocks

Technologies to support dominance in electromagnetic spectrum warfare e.g., dynamic spectrum access, spectral

mutability, advanced RF apertures


Processing-Enabled Intelligent SensorsFractionated Composable UAV Systems

Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors

Fractionated Survivable Remote-Piloted Systems

Current massive data flow from ISR platforms is created tremendous PED manpower need

Full-motion video (FMV) analysis is growing; even more Gorgon State and ARGUS-IS

Technologies needed to enable cueing-level processing before data leaves the sensor

UAV system fractionation is a relatively new architecture enabled by technology advances

Allows complete system to be separated into functional elements cooperating as a system

Common platform having element-specific payload enabled lower cost and attritability

Permits mission-specific composition of systems from lower-cost common elements

Low levels of redundancy among elements dramatically increases system survivability


PCA27: Rapidly Composable Small Satellites

PCA19: Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines

Additional Potential Capability Areas (PCAs) in “Technology Horizons”

PCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense

PCA30: Persistent Space Situational Awareness


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Technology Areas Identified for Each Potential Capability Area (e.g., PCA1)

Ad hoc networks Virtual machine architectures Agile hypervisors Polymorphic networks Agile networks Pseudorandom network recomposition Laser communications Secure RF links Frequency-agile RF systems Spectral mutability Dynamic spectrum access Quantum key distribution Complex adaptive distributed networks Complex adaptive systems Complex system dynamics V&V for complex adaptive systems

PCA1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems Autonomous systems Autonomous reasoning Resilient autonomy Collaborative/cooperative control Decision support tools Automated software generation Distributed sensing networks Sensor data fusion Signal identification and recognition Cyber offense Cyber defense Cyber resilience Advanced computing architectures Complex environment visualization Massive analytics Automated reasoning and learning

Combined Set of Technology Areas Identified Across all 30 PCAs (1/2)

• Advanced aerodynamic configurations• Aerodynamic experimental evaluation• Cold-atom INS• Chip-scale atomic clocks• Advanced TPS materials• Scramjet propulsion systems• Ad hoc networks• Polymorphic networks• Virtual machine architectures• Agile hypervisors• Agile networks• Pseudorandom network recomposition• Complex adaptive distributed networks• Modular small-sat components• Distributed small-sat architectures• Fractionated small-sat architectures• Laser communications• Short-range secure RF communications• Frequency-agile RF systems• Spectral mutability• Dynamic spectrum access• Quantum key distribution• Complex adaptive systems• Complex system dynamics• V&V for complex adaptive systems• Solid-state lasers• Fiber lasers• Semiconductor lasers

• Beam control• Directed energy effects• Directed energy protection• High-power microwaves• Quantum computing• Space weather• Orbital environment characterization• Satellite drag modeling • Space situational awareness• Lightweight multi-functional structures• Advanced composite fabrication • Structural modeling and simulation• Multi-scale simulation technologies• Coupled multi-physics simulations• Validation support to simulations• Autonomous systems• Autonomous reasoning• Resilient autonomy• Collaborative/cooperative control• Autonomous mission planning• Embedded diagnostics• Health monitoring and prognosis• Decision support tools• Automated software generation• High-altitude airships• Passive radar• Advanced RF apertures• Secure RF links

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• Lightweight materials• Advanced composites• Composites sustainment• Optical and infrared materials• RF and electronic materials• Metamaterials• Self-healing materials• Nanomaterials• Nondestructive evaluation• Material-specific manufacturing• Hydrocarbon boost engine• Spacecraft propulsion• Electric propulsion• Energy storage• High-temperature electronics• Radiation hardened electronics• Alternate fuels• System-level thermal management

M&S• Thermal management components• Three-stream engine architectures• High-temperature fuel technologies• High-OPR compressors• Engine component testing• Advanced and interturbine burners• Efficient bleedless inlets • Serpentine nozzles• High-speed turbines

• RF electronic warfare• EO/IR sensing• IR signature suppression• Distributed sensing networks• Integrated sensing and processing• Sensor-based processing• Signal identification and recognition• Information fusion and understanding• Cyber offense• Cyber defense• Cyber resilience• Advanced computing architectures• Biological signatures• Human behavior modeling• Cultural behavior modeling• Social network modeling• Behavior prediction and anticipation• Influence measures• Cognitive modeling• Complex environment visualization• Massive analytics• Automated reasoning and learning• Cognitive performance augmentation• Physical performance augmentation• Human-machine interfaces• High-temperature materials• High-altitude materials

Combined Set of Technology Areas Identified Across all 30 PCAs (2/2)

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High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE) Air Vehicle Systems

New unmanned aircraft systems (VULTURE) and airships (ISIS) can remain aloft for years

Delicate lightweight structures can survive low-altitude winds if launch can be chosen

Enabled by solar cells powering lightweight batteries or regenerative fuel cell systems

Large airships containing football field size radars give extreme resolution/persistence

DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept

DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept


Airship-Based HALE ISR Systems & Partially-Buoyant Cargo Airlifters

HALE airship platforms are being examined for numerous ISR and comm relay applications

Current DoD HALE Airship programs include: Long-Endurance Multi-INT Vehicle (LEMV) HALE Demonstrator (HALE-D) Blue Devil (Polar 400 airship + King Air A-90) Integrated Sensor is Structure (ISIS)

Hybrid airships achieve partial lift from buoyancy and part aerodynamically from forward flight

Blue Devil “Polar 400”DARPA “ISIS”

High-Altitude Long-Endurance Demo HALE-D

Examples of Current DoD HALE Airship Programs

LMCO “Project 791”


Hybrid Wing-Body (HWB) Aircraft for Higher Aerodynamic Fuel Efficiency

Hybrid wing-body with blended juncture has greater fuel efficiency than tube-and-wing

Body provides significant fraction of total lift; resulting volumetric efficiency is improved

Potential Air Force uses as airborne tanker or as cargo transport aircraft

Fabrication of pressurized body sections is enabled by PRSEUS technology

X-48B flight tests (NASA / AFRL / Boeing) have examined aerodynamic performance


Scramjet Engine Development and Scale-Up in Robust Scramjet Program

Ground Demo Engine (GDE-2) SJX61-1 Development Engine SJX61-2 Flight Clearance Engine

Hydrocarbon-fueled dual-mode ram/scramjet combustor allows operation over Mach range

Thermal management, ignition, flameholding GDE-1 was flight weight hydrocarbon fuel-

cooled but with open-loop fuel system GDE-2 was closed-loop hydrocarbon fuel-

cooled system intended for NASA X-43C SJX61-1,2 were closed-loop HC fuel-cooled

development/clearance engines for X-51A


Hypersonic Global ISR Vehicles

JP-fueled scramjet propulsion system could potentially enable a medium-size rapid-response ISR vehicle having operationally relevant range capability

Mach 6 limit avoids complex thermal management penalties at higher Mach Vertical takeoff / horizontal landing (VTHL) enables single-stage rocket-based

combined-cycle (RBCC) system having 5000 nmi range with 2000 lbs payload Integral rocket boost to Mach 3.5 with ram-scram acceleration to Mach 6 Time-responsive missions at long ranges while maintaining runway landings

Notional Mach 6 single-stage reusable VTHL ISR vehicle with 5000 nmi range (Astrox)


Airbreathing Two-Stage-to-Orbit (TSTO) Access to Space Vehicles

Airbreathing systems offer enormous advantages for TSTO access-to-space; reusable space access with aircraft-like operations

Air Force / NASA conducting joint configuration option assessments using Level 1 & 2 analyses

Reusable rockets (RR), turbine-based (TBCC) and rocket-based (RBCC) combined cycles


Laser-Based Directed Energy Systems for Low Collateral Damage Strike

Laser-based directed energy systems approaching operationally useful power, size, and beam quality

Distinction between tactical DE (e.g., ATL in C-130) vs. strategic DE (e.g., ABL in B747)

Tactical-scale systems enabled ultra-low collateral damage strike and airborne self-defense

Technology path from COIL lasers to bulk solid state (e.g., HELLADS) to fiber lasers to DPALs

Demonstration path leads to airborne test (ELLA)

AFRL Fiber Laser Testbed

AFRL Rubidium DPAL Experiment

2012 20172010

General Atomics

TextronUnit Cells

North Oscura Peak (NOP)White Sands Missile Range

ELLA Flight Demonstration


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“Grand Challenges” for Air Force S&T

#1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Networks Autonomous scalable technologies enabling large, nonsecure networks to

be inherently resilient to attacks entering through network or application layers, and to attacks that pass through these layers

#2: Trusted Highly-Autonomous Decision-Making Systems Broad principles, theoretical constructs, and algorithmic embodiments

for autonomous decision-making in applications where inherent decision time scales far exceed human capacity

#3: Fractionated, Composable, Survivable, Autonomous Systems Survivable system architecture based on fractionation with redundancy

using collaborative control and adapative autonomous mission planning

#4: Hyper-Precision Aerial Delivery in Difficult Environments Low-cost, air-dropped, autonomously guided, precise delivery under GPS-

denial for altitudes and winds representative of steep mountainous terrain

Main Take-Away Points

Air Force S&T priorities span across a wide range of technical areas

Technology Horizons gives the vision for key USAF S&T over next decade

Growing technology areas include dramatically increased use of highly adaptable autonomous systems

Fractionated composable architectures enable a new approach for high/low missions and low cost survivability

Technologies for reducing fuel costs will become increasingly important

e.g., airships, HWB, VAATE programs

“Technology Horizons” is already being used to increase focus of Air Force S&T

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Questions / Discussion

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