Think… “It’s all about the cleavages”

System of Government: Presidential System Distribution of Power: Federal System Electoral System: Single Member District Plurality Constitution: Constitution of 1999 Legislature: Bicameral—Senate and House of Rep. Current Head of State: President Goodluck Jonathan Head of Government: President Goodluck Jonathan Current Ruling Party: People’s Democratic Party (PDP)

Major Political Parties: People’s Democratic Party (PDP) All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), Action Congress (AC)

No Cross Cutting Cleavages◦Ethnic, Regional, and Religious Coincide…

yikes! No National Identity! Nigeria is only 50 years old Country created because of colonialism

Parliamentary system failed…why? Presidential system is working…why?

Nigeria is a megastate Its importance is derived from its large population, oil reserves, and centrality to the study of Africa

Nigeria embodies the much of the variety of African political experience.

Nigeria embodies of the variety of African political experience.◦varied heritage

◦colonial rule

◦Achievement of independence

◦Political parties = ethnic cleavages

◦Social welfare state/responsibility

◦Pattern of violence and military dominance

Provides useful insights into the challenges of developing nations

Major challenges facing Nigeria◦Maintaining the balance of civil/military

relations◦Managing ethnic diversity◦Transitioning from autocratic/military rule to

democracy◦Exploiting natural resources for public good◦Determining role of religion in politics

Ethnicity Region Religion

Hausa-Fulani North Muslim

YorubaCentral (West)

Both

Igbo South (East Christian

Ethnic Identity◦ Hausa-Fulani

Mostly northern half of Nigeria Predominately Muslim Legacy of emirates Indirect colonial rule Subsistence farming, rural, generally undeveloped villages

◦ Yoruba Southwestern Nigeria Lagos—former capital Oba and lineage chiefs and the British Fragmenting effect of multiple ethnic identities

◦ Igbo (lbo) Southeastern part of Nigeria—OIL RICH REGION (tried to

secede) Predominantly Christian. Responsive to western culture—Western educated Developed for market agriculture

The importance of ethnicity, religion, and region in the political life of Nigerians cannot be underestimated.

Most contentious political issues influence and/or are influenced by these three identities.

Biafran Civil War 1967-1970◦Explicit ethnic overtones◦Eastern Igbo attempted to secede from the

country NO CROSS-CUTTING CLEAVAGES!

Modern political culture characterized by ethnic diversity and conflict, corruption, and politically active military◦Patron-Clientelism (prebendalism)◦State control yet rich civil society◦Tension between modernity and tradition◦Religious conflict◦Ethnic diversity◦Geographic influences

Nigerian Nationalism◦Three major sources Freed slaves from N.A. others of African

descent from the Caribbean Nigerians who fought for the British in

WWII Frustration with lack of recognition for

service Nigerians who studied in U.K. and U.S. Military Today

Democratic Norms and Values◦Alternated between democratic and

military rule

◦Had both parliamentary and presidential system

◦Maintaining stable democracy is challenge

Democratic Norms and Values◦ Cycle of Rule:

1. Democracy2. Military rule with promise to return to democracy3. Majority party would pass policies very easily

and “funnel” resources of the state to its own ethnic group.

4. This would lead to frustration, hostility, and frequently a coup by one or more opposing parties or ethnic groups.

◦ The Presidential system has been somewhat more successful b/c of separation of powers

◦ Most of educated in Nigeria hold democratic values and have faith in the political process

Political Role of Women◦ Position of women varies immensely◦ Igbo and Yoruba allow women to hold jobs and

elected office.◦ Hausa-Fulani restrict role of women (Islam) and

have low rates of literacy and education and jobs◦ In general Nigerian women vote in similar numbers

as men but are underrepresented in government. Political Corruption

◦ Major problem◦ All governments claim will change, but don’t

(can’t)

To survive, or, more optimistically, flourish, Nigeria’s elected leaders face a myriad of economic and political challenges that will require a gradual and deliberate transformation bold enough to champion real change, but mindful that the military has the potential to return to power if given the opportunity.

The future of Nigeria hangs on this precarious balance

◦Ethnic/Religious Tensions◦Civil/Military Relations◦Regional Instability◦Corruption◦Financial transparency◦Poverty alleviation◦Quality health care◦Education◦Oil extraction◦HIV/AIDS

Key Transition Year of1999: ◦ Nigeria returned to formal civilian rule when

Olusegun Obasanjo was elected president. Test of Current Government:

◦ How can a potentially wealthy country fail to provide basic human needs, education, potable water, reliable transportation and communications, and engage in politics without corruption?

Still ranked as one of the poorest and most corrupt countries in the world

Nigeria’s Political Traditions can be divided into three specific eras:

◦Pre-Colonial Era (800-1860)

◦Colonial Era (1860-1960)

◦Independence Era (1960-now)

Pre-Colonial Era (800-1860)

Early Influence of Islam

Trade Connections

Kinship-based Politics

Complex Political Identities

Democratic Impulses

Colonial Era (1860-1960)

Authoritarian Rule

Interventionist State

Individualism

Christianity

Intensification of Ethnic Politics

Independence Era (1960-now)

Parliamentary-Style Government Replaced by Presidential System

Intensification of Ethnic Conflict

Military Rule

Personalized Rule and Corruption

Federalism

Dependence on Oil

Nigerian Independence◦ October 1, 1960

Two year honeymoon period Conflict: tore apart the ruling coalition in the Western

region National census

◦ 1965 law and order broke down in Western Region over election-related fraud and violence

◦ Military ended the First Republic in a January 1966 coup

◦ Is there a role for obas and emirs in modern Nigeria?

Agricultural Production & Sale of Commodities◦Colonialism had a huge impact on Nigerian

economy◦British forced the production and export of

certain goods◦Peasant farmers pushed to grow and export

goods chosen by the British◦Nigeria became dependant on exports of

commodities such as palm oil and cocoa◦Nigeria is now a net importer of food!

Disease◦ Malaria is a disease that affects most Nigerians◦ HIV/AIDS: Pull on economy

Population Growth◦ 45% of Nigeria is under 15 years of age.◦ Children considered a valuable resource in

agricultural societies◦ Population is growing rapidly = negative impact

on growth◦ Sifting from rural to urban = smaller portion of

labor force available for food production = drop in food production per capita

Urbanization◦ Quickly becoming urban society◦ Urban infrastructure is strained as a result

Petroleum◦ The curse of oil!◦ Nigeria has relied on oil to finance imports and large

scale development projects, thus fluctuations in markets control the ability of Nigeria to pay its debts

◦ This has caused high rates of inflation◦ The location of the oil and the distribution of benefits

have had political consequences, most notably in Biafra◦ Biafra

Igbo population frustrated with central government for not distributing a greater share of oil wealth-thus their attempt to secede

Oil was main cause for Biafran Civil War 1967-1970

Dist. Natural resources: Political Effects◦ Eastern region of country holds oil reserves◦ National government view: national resource◦ Eastern citizens (Igbo) have yet reap full benefits of their

treasure◦ Direct cause of Biafra Independence movement: secession◦ Individuals who own oil in east tend to be non-Igbo minorities◦ Environmental degradation: east pays price while handing over

most of the benefits.◦ MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta)

The International Environment◦ Biggest problem: debt it owes Western creditors◦ Oil curse caused this◦ Government spends a high percentage of national budget

repaying debt—at the expense of social programs.

Northerners have dominated the leadership of the country under military and civilian rule.

Military power◦ Educated Igbo's have held leadership positions

Role of Nigerian universities Civil service No recruitment of “strangers” Federal character of appointments of military

personnel Ethnic politics still dominate

Parliamentary vs. Presidential◦Fusion of power vs. separation of power

◦British established a parliamentary system like their own

◦First Republic followed this pattern◦However, because parliamentary rule tends to yield easy results for the majority party and because stakes of losing are so high, parliamentary government led to massive conflict and ultimately failed

Third Republic of 1993 Constitution of 1999

◦ From 1983 to 1999, politics in Nigeria consisted of a succession of military regimes that planned a return to democracy

◦ Abubakar handed over power to a civilian regime outlined by a constitution in 1999

◦ This is the structure of government that has existed since then.

Federalism◦ Three level federalism: Federal, State and City◦ The number of states has changed three time—from

3 to 19 to 30 to 36

◦Constitution of 1999 Calls for independently elected president Dual chamber of national assembly at the federal

level 3 Senators from each of 36 states, plus one from

Abuja Representatives determined by population All legislators elected to four year terms

◦KEY POINT! Nigerian pluralism; lack of trust by subcultures No institutional structure can overcome this

roadblock.

◦Judiciary: Constitution of 1999 Supreme Court Court of Appeal State and Federal High Courts Ten northern states maintain shari’a law courts

Overlapping system of judiciary has caused conflict

Executive branch of government has been the most powerful

Current system is a federal system closely modeled after the U.S. presidential system

History◦ First Republic: British Parliamentary System

◦ Second Republic: American Presidential System

◦ Third and Fourth: Revived Presidential Model

Popularly elected to four-year term with maximum of two terms

Head of Government Commander-in-Chief of armed forces Head of State Appoints government ministers (confirmed by

Senate)—must come from all 36 states Federal Executive Council: Ensures laws are

properly implemented President and ministers not allowed to serve in

National Assembly

National Assembly◦ Bicameral with Senate and House of

Representatives◦ Popularly Elected◦ All bills must pass both houses and be signed

by President◦Senate

109 members: 3 from each state and one from Abuja

◦House of Representatives 360 members

Responsible for the interpretation of laws in accordance with the constitution.

Supreme Court (highest in the land) Court of Appeal (federal and state) Federal High Court (federal and state)

Shari’a Court of Appeal:◦Abuja and state courts

Governor who is popularly elected State House of Assembly

◦Unicameral◦Comprised of popularly elected

representatives from local government areas

◦The number of members in each state assembly is comprised of three times the number of seats in the federal House of Representatives

You cannot study Nigerian politics without recognizing the importance of the military in all aspects of political life.

A mix of ethnic groups Well disciplined, organized, with the ability to

make decisions efficiently and effectively One of only sources of national unity Armed forces also seen as more

representative than political parties and other institutions of government that are subject to ethnic-based patronage.

HOWEVER, ethnic cleavages are the backdrop to military/authoritarian rule

As with many “developing nations”, the bureaucracy has been the source of employment for large numbers of people not engaged in trade or agriculture.

Major source of corruption due to political instability, lack of accountability, and massive cash from oil production.

Bureaucracy has maintained its power throughout military and civilian rule

The first political parties in Nigeria were, for the most part, ethnically based.

Little is done to reach out beyond ethnic power base◦Impact: ethicizing and regionalizing the

national political process, turning politics into a zero-sum game of winners and losers

Nigeria has an active civil society Two main sources:

◦ Organized Interest Groups and “Clientelism” Many formal associations have an ethnic base,

but there are numerous informal associations as well

Professional organizations such as unions representing petroleum workers and formal professional associations play a role in politics.

Ethnic and Religious Associations◦ MOSOP (Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People)

Spoke for those who owned land now occupied by oil rigs and has seen environmental destruction

Ken Saro-Wiwa Imprisoned and executed by Abache military dictatorship

Associational groups◦ Labor Unions usually organized by sector◦ Universities source of political activism◦ National Union of Petroleum and Gas Workers (NUPENG)◦ Nigerian Bar Association◦ Nigerian Medical Association◦ No farmer groups…ethnic divisions prevented this.

Non-associational Groups◦ Kaduna Mafia

A network of powerful northern military leaders who maintain strong influence over military and politics and are engaged in organized crime

Patron-Client Networks◦ Powerful political figures are able to mobilize support

through personal connections with subordinates◦ Clientelism

Great range in activity◦Voting◦Civil war◦Violence; thugs

Without census data hard to assess Mobilization of patron-client networks

key to victory Rise in honest and responsive

institutions

Constitution of 1999 written to promote national parties and to deflect conflict between ethnic groups

Goal of Constitution to ensure that candidates for office had broad public support

Example: It specified that to be elected president, a candidate would have to poll at least 25 percent of votes cast in at least two-thirds of states.

1975 Elections controlled by Federal Elections Commission (FEDECO)

All parties must register with FEDECO

“Federal Character” of parties

Parties had to have at least two-thirds of all states to be able to run candidates

Indep. National Election Commission (INEC) 1999

Obasanjo was elected under this system PDP◦ PDP: People’s Democratic Party◦ As a northerner and a Hausa, he is a Christian and his candidacy

received broad popular support

Ethnic Solidarity and Party Loyalty◦ In 1999 the party system had consolidated into three

major parties.◦ Each of these parties had a base of support from one of

the three major ethnic groups◦ However, due to the requirements of INEC (formerly

FEDECO), each had to have regional support Example: The PDP (People’s Democratic Party) is said

to have it support in the north Election of 2007

◦ Umar Musa Yar’adua won◦ The election marked first civilian-to-civilian transfer of

power in Nigerian history◦ Charges of widespread fraud and denial of voting rights

People’s Democratic Party (PDP)◦ Hausa-Fulani and North◦ Obasanjo and Umar Musa Yar’adua

All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) 2003◦ Formally the All People’s Party APP 1999◦ Igbo and East/Southeast◦ Main opposition party◦ Ran Former General Muhammadu Buhari in 2003 and 2007.

Action Congress (AC)◦ Merger of Alliance for Democracy, Justice Party, Advance of

Democrats◦ Yoruba and West/Southwest◦ Ran Atiku Abubakar in 2007

There are many policies that the current government is struggling with, including, corruption, debt, ethnic and religious conflict, HIV/AIDS, bureaucracy retraining

Nigeria’s public policies greatly affected by world community◦ World Bank “Structural Adjustment Program” or SAP

Generally favors privatization and free trade

◦ International Monetary Fund

◦ Both have been active in attempts to restructure Nigeria’s debt

Nigeria depends on its income from oil◦ Oil revenue income has been source of political corruption

◦ Oil revenues down, corruption and mismanagement prevent state from being able to pay teachers and civil servants

◦ OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)

◦ NNOC (Nigerian National Oil Corporation)

Standard of living has not improved in recent years

Oil revenue has had little impact on GDP Nigeria spends large portion of budget on

military◦ Has enabled them to maintain a high profile in the region

Increased number of children in schools Poor performance on providing basic health care Income gap between rich and poor increased “national cake”: Federal gov. spends between

two-thirds three fourths

Dealing with Debt and SAP◦ Borrowed heavily from foreign banks in 1970s◦ High interested caused debt trap◦ World Bank and IMF restructured much of the

debt◦ Spending to repay debt highest item in annual

budget◦ The problem of how to deal with debt is one of

highest items of priority

The Census Issue◦ Major source of political conflict!...that’s right

counting people◦ More People = More Federal Money◦ This is because each ethnic group fears that the

count will inaccurately reflect larger opposing groups and that the state’s resources will be directed accordingly

◦ Also, in a country where federal subsidies make up the lion’s share of budgetary allocations at all levels, the distribution of population directly effects the distribution of resources.

Conclusions on Performance◦ Read: page 442

Has the population and resources to be a regional power

Economic Community of West African States◦ Free trade zones◦ Critic of international organizations’ monetary

policy: World Bank, IMF France- closer economic ties U.S. and Britain – condemnation of military

rulers

Read page 443-444

Population: 130 million Territory: 356,668 sq. miles Year of Independence:

1960 Year of Current

Constitution: 1979 Constitution still partially in force; draft 1995 Constitution published and revised in 1999 (the 1999 Constitution)

Head of State: President Omaru Yar’Adua

Head of Government: President Omaru Yar’Adua

Language: English (official), Hausa,Yoruba, Igbo, (and 250 other ethnic groups)

Religion:◦ Muslim: 50%◦ Christian: 40%◦ Indigenous beliefs: 10%