nielsen economic current: october 2009
DESCRIPTION
Signs of Economic Recovery Evident, but Global Consumers Still Not Ready to Loosen Purse StringsNielsen Wire - September 17, 2009With an increasing amount of global buzz proclaiming the emergence of an economic recovery, the latest edition of the Nielsen Economic Current shows definite signs of renewed consumer confidence and sales growth in some countries. However, with 10 of the 12 countries tracked by Nielsen holding steady in measures of spending from the previous month, there is still no indication of widespread optimism.Read the full article at http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/consumer/signs-of-economic-recovery-evident-but-global-consumers-still-not-ready-to-loosen-purse-strings/TRANSCRIPT
September 2009
Todd HaleJames Russo
Jonathan Banks Jean-Jacques Vandenheede
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Chg vs. Previous
Month
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
Germany
India
Jun 09
Jul 09
Brazil
Canada
China
France
United States
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Growth: between +1 and + 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Negative: between -1 and -4%
Jul ‘09
Feb ‘08
Mar ‘09
Apr ‘09
May ‘09
Jun ‘09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Negative: <= -4%
Global Topline: Summary of All CountriesKPI Summary
Nielsen Global Scorecard:Trips Slowing, Store Brand Sales Moderating
Very Strong Growth: >= +5%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1%
Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Negative: between -1% and -4%
US CA FR DE UK IT ES BR IN CN
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
TW HK
July Topline:Canada outpacing US, Western Europe Lagging Emerging economies
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
North America Western Europe LatAm Asia Eastern Europe
20082009 E2010 E
• The UBS Global Economics team now expects 2009 world GDP to decline -0.9%, returning to growth in 2010 of 3.3%
Source: UBS
Global Economic Top-Line
Global Return to Growth Forecasted for 2010, With Asia leading and Western Europe lagging the recovery
Global Confidence & Recession/Recovery Buzz
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
Message
Count
Recession ‐ Global Recovery‐Global
Weekly Blog Buzz Trend* across U.S., UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, New Zealand (Data covers 01/01/2009 – 08/30/2009)
Global recession buzz has dropped ~31% since 3/14/09
Online Global Recession Discussions are Slowing
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
United Kingdom
United States
Recession Recovery
Mes
sage
Cou
nt
73% less Recovery mentions
67% less Recovery mentions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Germany
86% less Recovery mentions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Italy93% less
Recovery mentions
* Blog data only, 12/28/08-08/30/09
Concerns in the short term over economic recovery
Country Highlights & Insights
Aug 08
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Shopper Frequency and Transaction Size Continue to Slow Amidst Aggressive Price Reductions
USA Summary
Jun 09
Aug 08
Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jul 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more frequently?
Are consumers spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Dollar growth continues to outpace physical units fueled by rising prices. Consumers respond by continuing to seek lower prices in value channels, and with promotions
Canada Summary
Aug 08
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Value Channels continue growth, lift in promotional sales
France Summary
Jul 09
Aug 08
Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
Germany Summary
Unit sales and dollar sales remain moderate. Increase in promotional activity
Aug 08
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
UK Summary
Volume sales improving
Budget store brands’ growth slows, premium store brands return to growth
Aug 08
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Store Brands and Value Channels realizing growth,
however frequency down
Italy Summary
Jul 09
Jul 08
Aug 08
Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Spain Summary
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 10/08 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 84
Aug 08
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 6/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 82
Taiwan Summary
Taiwan retail market is beginning to stabilize
Aug 09
Sept 09
Oct 09
Nov 09
Dec 09
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
Hong Kong Summary
Previous growth in HH categories due to Swine Flu has been slowing down, with Baby Products continuing to be the most lucrative category demonstrating fastest growth
Jun 09
Aug 08
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jul 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
Lower Interest rate and unemployment rate falling. Expansion of Industrial activity. Recovery of food product categories and non- basic product categories
Brazil Summary
Sep 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 08
Feb 08
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands? ~
Are shoppers shifting to value channels? ~
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more
frequently? ~Are consumers
spending more per trip? ~
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
Consistent volume and value sales gains of +5%, rebound in optimism
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 7/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 81
India Summary
Aug 08
Sept 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Mar 09
Apr 09
May 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Nielsen Market Index Volume*
Nielsen Market Index Value**
Are consumers moving to Store Brands?
Are shoppers shifting to value channels?
Are retailers selling more on promotion?
Are consumers shopping more
frequently?Are consumers
spending more per trip?
Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence^
Very Strong Growth: >= +5% Growth: between +1 and plus 4%
Neutral: between -1 and +1% Negative: between -1% and -4%
Very Negative: <= -4%
*Nielsen Market Index Volume defined as unit change vs. YAGO**Nielsen Market Index Value defined as dollar change vs. YAGO^ Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence measure is from 4/09 andis benchmarked vs. the Global Confidence avg. of 77
FMCG manufacturers are still reporting slower growth in their shipment numbers but the direction is now positive
China Summary
• United States:– James Russo, [email protected]– Todd Hale, [email protected]
• Global:– Lisa Lee, [email protected]
• Western Europe: – Jean-Jacques Vandenheede, [email protected]– Jonathan Banks, [email protected]
• Canada: – Carman Allison, [email protected]
• Russia:– Natalia Ignatyeva, [email protected]
• India:– Jayashree Janardhanan, [email protected]
• Brazil:– Margarita Zanella, [email protected]– Tatiana Villarinho, [email protected]
• China:– Phoebe Lam, [email protected]
• Taiwan:– Cheryl Wen, [email protected]
• Hong Kong– Acky Chan, [email protected]
• Nielsen Global Buzz:– Chelsea Peters, [email protected]– Shobhana Srinivasan, [email protected]
Contact List