nick lane, mobilesquared, uk mobile update
TRANSCRIPT
the mobile landscape
Nick Lane, chief strategy analyst,
All data/forecasts contained in this presentation copyright of mobileSQUARED unless stated otherwise. Data from Mobile Consumer Trends database
About mobileSQUARED
Specialists in mobile consumer engagement
We do it using Mobile Consumer Trends, the only forward-looking mobile consumer forecasts, based on extensive ongoing qual/quan mobile market and consumer research.
We create the mobile market forecasts
Then segment the data by
• Advertising• Apps• Internet• Messaging• Commerce
Then by
• Device type• Age• Gender• Location• Socio-economics
Then we forecast
How we do it
Our view of the UK mobile market
74,000,000
76,000,000
78,000,000
80,000,000
82,000,000
84,000,000
86,000,000
88,000,000
4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16
Total UK mobile subscriptions
Number of subscriptions will increase from 82.9 million end-2011 to 86.02 million by the end of 2016
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10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
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60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
4Q09 4Q10 4Q11
Featurephones/other
Other smartphones
Microsoft
Symbian
BlackBerry
Android
iPhone
Featurephones still dominate but ...
45.8 million
...NOT FOR LONG
4 out of 5 phones shipped during 2011 are smartphones
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10,000,000
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60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
4Q09 4Q10 4Q11
Featurephones/other
Other smartphones
Microsoft
Symbian
BlackBerry
Android
iPhone
Smartphones to overtake featurephones
in 4Q2012
Arise Sir Smartphone
Smartphones experiencing unprecedented growth in the UK
UK mobile market 4Q2009UK mobile market 4Q2010
Smartphone penetration: 14% in 200924% in 2010
39% end 2011
UK smartphone growth
Smartphone
UK mobile market 4Q2011
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10,000,000
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50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
4Q09 4Q10 4Q11 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16
Legacy
Featurephones
Other
Microsoft
Symbian
BlackBerry
Android
iPhone
Platform size by volume up to 2016:1. Android2. iOs3. Blackberry
Android overtakes iPhone in 2011 as the biggest
Android CAGR 86%
iPhone growth stabilising
2011
According to Mobile Consumer Trends
Key usage numbers (4Q2011)
Mobile internet users 26.14 million 39%
App users 22.02 million 33%
Mobile Ad reach 13.62 million 20%
M-commerce 16.37 million 24%
Opt-in marketing 14 million 21%
Nb all MCT data based on 18-64 year olds
BIGGER
Key usage numbers (4Q2011)
Mobile internet users 26.14 million 39%
App users 22.02 million 33%
Mobile Ad reach 13.62 million 20%
M-commerce 16.37 million 24%
Opt-in marketing 14 million 21%
Nb all MCT data based on 18-64 year olds
UK mobile usage landscape 2Q...
Apps: 6%M-comm: 6%
Mob Int.: 1.3 mil.
Mob Int: 5%M-comm: 5%
Mob Int: 12%M-comm: 9%
Total mobadreach: 2.5 mil.
Apps: 18%M-comm: 22%
Apps: 7%M-comm: 7%
Mob Int: 2%Apps: 2%Mobad
conversion: 300,142
Mob Int: 10%Mobad
conversion: 514,862
Mob Int: 11%M-comm: 12%
Apps: 1%M-comm: 1%
Mobad conversion: 65,250
Mob Int: 5%Apps: 5%
M-comm: 5%
Apps: 14%Total mobadreach: 16%
Mob Int: 7%M-comm: 5%
... And 4Q
Apps: 1.43 mil.M-comm: 1.2 mil.
Mob Int.: 6.5%
Total mobadreach: 26%
Apps: 4.1 mil.M-comm: 4.1 mil.
Apps: 1.6 mil.M-comm: 1.3 mil.
Mob Int: 562,055Apps: 473,363
Mobad conversion: 408,652
Mob Int: 2.7 mil.Mobad
conversion: 12%
Apps: 1.3%M-comm: 207,927Mobad conversion:
1.3%
Apps: 3.11 mil.Total mobad
reach: 2.12 mil.
Mob Int: 1.88 mil.M-comm: 929,828
Out with the old
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2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
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12,000,000
iPhone Android BlackBerry Symbian Microsoft Others
Smartphone market, 4Q11
United Kingdom of Android
7.5 millionNumber of Android mobile internet
users in 4Q2011
1.39 mil.
338,611
858,916
1.06 mil.
Android app users
6.8 millionNumber of Android app users in
4Q2011
1.26 mil.
308,116
781,225
965,339
490,526
496,675
App users 2Q11
FEMALEMALE
•Number of females using apps has now overtaken male usage
•The gender gap will now start to widen, but...
App user trends 4Q11H
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How appealing are apps?
App users by region, 3Q2011
iPhone app users by region, 4Q2011
322,415
463,248 840,709
513,290
1.32 mil.
7.15 milTotal iPhone users 4Q11
Mobile advertising
Re
sp
on
siv
e b
row
se
r,
PC
pu
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ase
r
Total mobile advertising reachM
ob
ile
ad
vert
isin
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rea
ch
by
sm
art
ph
on
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esp
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Mobile ad conversion twice as likely in males vs. females
Where is this all heading?
There’s money in this
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1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
M-commerce users by device
Non-smartphone
Other smartphones
Android
iPhone
16.3 millionUsers of m-commerce in 4Q2011
10.2 millionUsers of m-commerce in 3Q2012
72%of m-commerce users
on smartphones in 3Q2012
Male vs. female adoption
TIME
CO
NSU
MER
AD
OP
TIO
N
4Q2011
MOBILE INTERNET
MOBILE COMMERCE
FEMALE
MALE
Service adoption delay
Central, 4Q11
Mobile internet – 3.69 mil.
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
iPhone Android Other
App users – 3.11 mil.
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
iPhone Android Other
M-commerce – 2.5 mil.
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
iPhone Android Other
Central, 4Q11
Mobile internet – 3.69 mil.
50.1% female / 49.9% male
18-24 – 282,01635-44 - 416,57355-64 – 346,530
App users – 3.11 mil.
51% female / 49% male
25-34 – 659,529 total25-34 – 330,424 female25-34 – 329,105 male
M-commerce – 2.5 mil.
Male – 1,323,051Female – 1,063,647
18-24 – 500,493
Conclusion
Internet and apps comparable in mobile usage
Males more receptive to mobile advertising
Android on a march, but
Greater interaction/engagement on iPhone
Smartphones to overtake featurephones in 2012
Growth will only accelerate
Nick LaneChief strategy [email protected]+44 118 977 6902
Source: Mobile Consumer Trends, in association with