nicaragua between revolution and democracy (overview of current affairs of nicaragua as of may...
DESCRIPTION
This is a power point presentation from a key note speaking prepared for the University of Arizona in May 2010. The presentation described the main aspects of the democratic crisis in Nicaragua during the first years of the Daniel Ortega administration (2007-2010). The presentation also provides an overview of the Nicaragua economy.TRANSCRIPT
Nicaragua: Between revolution
and democracy
Special Report to the University of ArizonaBy Professor Felix Maradiaga Blandon
May 2010
Overview
• Nicaragua is the largest country in Central America– 130,373 km2 (about the size of New York
State)– Nicaragua's Bosawas Biosphere Reserve
protects 1.8 million acres of Mosquitia forest (almost seven percent of the country's land mass) making it the largest natural reserve to the north of the Amazon.
– 8 % of the country is covered by water,
2
A legacy of volatility and conflict
• Between 1856 and 1990, Nicaragua experienced more than 70 violent political upheavals. (Montalvan, 2002)– US Intervention: 1909 - 1933– Somoza Dictatorship: 1936 - 1979– The Nicaragua Revolution: 1979 – Civil War: 1980 - 1990– Democratic Transition: 1990– The Imposition of “Orteguism”
3
The Open Wounds of a betrayed Revolution
• According to conservative estimates, 150,000 lives were lost in Central America (1980 – 1989).
• In Nicaragua, the exact toll has never been officially revealed by authorities, but objectively speaking it can probably be calculated at around 35,000 dead.
4
• Recently, a declassified secret report of the now extinct East German Stasi secret police revealed that Sandinista authorities had reported 19,000 victims between 1980 and 1986.– the country was only three million inhabitants
at the time. – It is equivalent to the United States losing
over 4 million lives in a single war.
5
DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION AND POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION
6
Peace Agreements and Disarmament
7
0.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Defense Expenditure: 80% reduction
Gasto Militar (en dólares) Gasto Militar (% del PIB)
Fuente: SIPRI (www.sipri.org), a partir del 2002 cálculos propios
(en porcentaje)(en unidades monetarias)
8
Nicaragua’s Economic Evolution (1970 – 2006)
0
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
4,500,000,000
5,000,000,0001970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2006
Total GDP Agricultural GDP
Total and Agricultural Real GDP during Different Administrations(USD of 2000)
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank
1st S
om
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ide
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cy
Ju
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Go
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(Orte
ga
)
Da
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ga
Vio
leta
Ba
rrios
Arn
old
o A
lem
án
En
riqu
e B
ola
ño
s
AGR GDP / TOTAL GDP (1970-2004) = 23.5% Average.
9
External Debt as % of GDP (1970 – 2006)
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%1
97
0
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank
AVERAGE DEBT AS % of GDP (1970-2004) = 242.69%
10
Foreign Direct Investment (1970 – 2006)Net Inflows, Current USD
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank
AVERAGE FDI (1970-2004) = 58.8 Million USD
11
Conservative Reforms
• Open Economy
• Reestablishment of private property rights
• Legislature ratified DR-CAFTA 2005
• Resumed IMF-required PRGF reforms
• Reached highest level of exports since 1979
• Agricultural exports increased significantly 2006
• Maintained fiscal discipline (particularly 2002 -2006)
• Reached highest level of foreign reserves in history
• Second safest country in Latin America.
12
Challenges to Economic Development
• Massive public debt resulting from confiscations• Government still paying for successive banking
crises– Public debt servicing rose from 17% to 20%
total spending• 800,000 children cannot attend elementary
school due to inadequate funding• Highly vulnerable to external shocks (natural
disasters, commodity prices)• Constitutional Reforms of 2000• Corruption
Less than 3% poverty reduction in 16 years of systematic conservative reforms
13
14
Social Indicators
• Nicaragua is still catching up with its neighbors– Lowest per capita income; estimated 48% below poverty line (2005)
– Among the lowest literacy rates in the hemisphere
– Weak infrastructure
– Lagging health indicators
1 Source: World Bank Estimates
Indicator BelizeCosta Rica
El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Panama Nicaragua
GNI per capita (Atlas method US$) 2004 est. 3,940 4,670 2,350 2,130 1,030 4,450 790
Literacy (15+ years) 77 96 80 69 80 92 77
Life expectancy (years), 2003 71.2 78.6 70.4 66.1 66.1 75 68.8
Infant mortality rate (deaths/1,000), 2003 33 8 32 35 32 18 30
Access to improved water source (% population) 91% 97% 82% 95% 90% 91% 81%
Telephone lines: fixed & mobile (per 1000), 2003 317.3 274.4 292.0
134.7(2000) 72.4 389.5 122.5
15
Agricultural Products
Hospitality and Tourism
Fishing and Fishing Products
Processed Food
Jewelry, Precious Metals and Collectibles
Transportation and Logistics
Communications Services
Other
Nicaragua Exports by Cluster, 1997 - 2003 ($mm)
$104.3
$26.4
$33.9
$35.4
$56.3
$86.2
$324.8
$150.7
Source: Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness
Agricultural products are Nicaragua’s biggest exports
Democracy and Institutions
• Nicaragua’s position on the 2006 Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index was 5.68, on a scale of one to ten, placing it 89th among the 167 countries evaluated and making it, according to The Economist a “hybrid regime.”
• The other three nations in the Americas that fell in this category were Ecuador, Venezuela and Haiti.
16
High Corruption and Low Legitimacy
17
The Aleman and Ortega “Pact”
18
Higlights of the Ortega Administration
• Elected in November 2006 with 38% of the vote
• Reforms of Law 290
• Alliance with Venezuela– Over $420 million/year “off-budget” aid
• Electoral Fraud of November 2008
• Attacks against Civil Society
• Re-election
19
The Imposition of “Orteguism”
• Two independent political parties were declared “illegal”
• Article 147 of the Constitution declared “unconstitutional”
• Imposition of Executive Decree 3-2010– Appointment of Justices and Magistrates via
presidential order without Legislative consent
• “De facto” legislative blockade
20
DEMOCRACY UNDER FIRE
21
News coverage of the current political crisis
El País (España) . 21/04/2010– http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/04/20/world/AP-LT-Nicaragua-Congress-
Protests.html?_r=1&ref=americas
Washington Post:– http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/20/
AR2010042004296.html– http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2010/04/
leftist_thugocracy_in_nicaragu.html
El País (España) . 21/04/2010– http://www.elpais.com/articulo/internacional/control/poder/judicial/agrava/crisis/
Nicaragua/elpepuintlat/20100421elpepuint_14/Tes
El Heraldo – Honduras– http://www.elheraldo.hn/Mundo/Ediciones/2010/04/21/Noticias/Simpatizantes-de-
Ortega-atacan-sesion-opositora
La Prensa Libre - Guatemala• http://www.prensalibre.com/internacionales/Oficialistas-atacan-oposicion-
Nicaragua_0_247775280.html
22
23
24
25
26
27
Is There Any Hope?
30
31
DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS
33
Civil Society is playing a central rolein pushing for democratic reforms
34