NIAGARA GO RAILA CASE FOR WEEKDAY GO TRAIN SERVICE BETWEEN NIAGARA AND THE GTHA

APRIL 2015

BUSINESS CASE PRIMER

GO COULD CHANGE MY CHILDREN’S FUTURE, CHANGE MY COMMUNITY’S PROSPECTS AND MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN ONTARIO’S ECONOMYNiagara GO, Facebook Page

UNLOCKING NIAGARA’S POTENTIALTransportation and transit are intrinsically linked to

sustained economic prosperity. The world’s most

competitive regions support a competitive business

environment by ensuring the necessary transportation

systems are in place to move people and goods as quickly

and efficiently as possible. In fact, more than 75 years ago

the Queen Elizabeth Way (QEW) was established linking

the communities and industry of the Greater Toronto-

Hamilton (GTHA) Area with Niagara. Arguably one of

the most influential developments in the history of the

Province, this strategic highway corridor continues to fuel

Ontario’s economic growth linking the GTHA to Niagara

and beyond to the entire eastern United States.

Today we must make new connections – connections

that bring new talent, investment, growth and innovation

within reach. Strong local economies are the foundation

of a strong provincial economy and extending two-way GO

Train service to Niagara is critical to our long-term growth,

prosperity and sustainability.

In 2014, the Provincial government announced a plan to

“build a seamless and integrated transportation network

across the province”– Moving Ontario Forward. The fund,

totaling $29 billion, is dedicated to building priority transit

and transportation infrastructure across Ontario, for which

$14 billion is available to areas outside the GTHA. Niagara

is completely aligned with this Provincial objective and is

presenting an opportunity that is affordable, feasible and

will unlock Niagara’s potential.

REQUEST/RECOMMENDATION

A COMMITMENT IS SOUGHT FROM THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO IN 2015 THAT GO TRAIN SERVICE WILL BE OPERATIONAL IN NIAGARA IN 2016, AND THAT NECESSARY RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE BE ESTABLISHED BY THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF GO RAIL SERVICE TO NIAGARA FALLS WITH STOPS IN GRIMSBY AND ST. CATHARINES.

SPECIFICALLY, IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT GO TRANSIT EXPAND RAIL SERVICE BETWEEN JAMES STREET NORTH STATION AND NIAGARA FALLS FOR A REGULAR TWO-WAY WEEKDAY SERVICE CONNECTING THE NIAGARA REGION WITH THE GTHA, ENABLING MAXIMIZATION OF ACCESS TO LOCAL TRANSIT SERVICES IN BOTH HAMILTON AND NIAGARA.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

UNITED IN A PROACTIVE PLAN FOR PROSPERITYNiagara remains strongly and passionately united in its

advocacy for two-way GO Train service and all 12 of

Niagara’s mayors, the Regional Chair and Council are in

agreement that GO rail expansion is Niagara’s foremost

priority. The region recognizes the critical advantages

resulting from improved inter-regional connectivity

with the GTHA. The expansion of two-way, all-day GO

Train service between Niagara Falls and the GTHA will

have a transformative effect on the current and future

economic and community development of Niagara, and will

contribute to the wider economic and growth objectives of

the Province.

The benefits of GO Train are far-reaching. It is widely

acknowledged that transportation and transit are closely

tied to economic prosperity and that where GO Transit

goes, communities grow.

While the 2008 economic downturn had a significant

impact on Niagara, it was very evident that simply waiting

for a positive turnaround was not an option. Niagara’s

communities took an aggressive, proactive approach,

working with industry stakeholders to identify key sectors

that would play a critical role in our region’s economic

revitalization.

While Niagara’s roots are deep in the agricultural, food

and advanced manufacturing sectors, today we are gaining

significant ground in the health and wellness, interactive

BUSINESS CASE | | I

digital media and bioscience sectors. Committed to

the social, economic and cultural development of our

communities, Niagara’s post-secondary institutions

(including Brock University, Niagara College and McMaster

University’s DeGroote School of Medicine) are active and

engaged partners with local governments and community

organizations. Together, those combined efforts are focused

on the economic revitalization of the region, cooperatively

developing programs to address demands for skilled labour

and positioning Niagara in the global marketplace for talent.

Traditionally, our workforce has been primarily local; today,

Niagara is attracting talent from beyond our borders.

Niagara’s connectivity to the GO rail network has the

potential to attract a much wider net of potential employees

to Niagara businesses which can incentivize more businesses

to locate in the region knowing that a significant cache of

skilled labour is only a short train ride away.

For Niagara, GO Trains will be an economic ‘game changer’;

the catalyst to realize our plans for economic prosperity.

Together with our post-secondary institutions and industry

representatives, we have charted out and embarked on an

ambitious Joint Economic Development Action Plan for

Niagara’s success. All parties agree that GO Train expansion

to Niagara is a critical component of these efforts.

WELCOMING THE WORLD, LEVERAGING LOCAL ECONOMIESThe Niagara region continues to exert its magnetic four-

season pull on travellers from every corner of the world.

Niagara is the fourth-most visited destination in the country

with more than 12 million visitors annually.

With its spectacular natural setting between two Great

Lakes and bordering the Niagara River, the region is a

peninsula that rises up into a towering escarpment. While

Niagara Falls may be the area’s most famous natural

attraction, it is just one of Niagara’s many wonders.

Home to Ontario’s most active wine region, Niagara has

earned a reputation for producing an array of exceptional

wines in addition to our internationally acclaimed Icewine.

From small boutique wineries, to organic wineries and

even celebrity wineries, there are many attractions to keep

Niagara overflowing with visitors year after year.

Extending GO rail into the Niagara region will link the

country’s largest urban agglomeration (GTHA) with one of

the world’s most renowned tourist destinations.

PROSPEROUS NIAGARA, PROSPEROUS GTHAThe links between Niagara and the GTHA are increasingly

more inter-dependent, and the connections are most

evident between Niagara and Hamilton as commuter traffic

flows continue to rise.

Given the very favourable affordability of housing in

Niagara, many city-dwellers are selling their GTHA

properties and re-investing in Niagara. Extending

commuter GO rail service to Niagara will allow more people

to live and work in the Niagara-Hamilton area. It will open

up employment opportunities and significantly expand

choices people have to call home – positively contributing to

their quality of life. In keeping with a provincial focus to get

people out of cars and onto public transit, travellers to and

from Niagara will be able to ride the GO train and reduce

the heavy congestion that exists on the QEW highway. As

a region, we are taking the necessary steps to support this

effort.

Rail also has the advantage of reliability and can provide

the environment for work and/or relaxation over congested

highway commuting, contributing to overall societal

productivity and an enhanced quality of life. Through

GO rail expansion to Niagara, the Province and its transit

agencies have an opportunity to shift bus operations to rail,

thereby re-allocating some of the operating costs towards

the GO Train.

Regionally, Niagara has invested in and launched a number

of strategic initiatives to facilitate improved connectivity

and set the stage for inter-regional transit. Niagara’s 12

municipalities have mobilized resources to improve local

transit; the Region’s inter-municipal transit pilot project

has been made permanent; mobility hub strategy studies

are underway; and a nodes and corridors study has been

completed. The pieces have also been put in motion

to finalize a regional transportation master plan, and

are pending favourable provincial decisions on GO rail

expansion.

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MOBILITY HUBS: THE CORNERSTONE OF STRONG COMMUNITIESGO Transit is a catalyst for growth and expansion, as well

as a cornerstone for future routing and the establishment of

mobility hubs. On a local scale, extending GO rail is known

to have a dramatic effect on the areas surrounding stations.

GO Transit envisions its stations being ‘a transformative

force in communities, providing busy transit hubs for

local and interregional travel, and shaping sustainable

employment, institutional, and residential communities.’

Niagara is ready, willing and able to leverage this transit

investment together with a number of planning tools

already in place, including Community Improvement Plans

(CIPs) to revitalize community cores in and around the

GO stations. Strategically, GO rail expansion to Niagara

aligns with numerous Provincial policies/plans including

the Provincial Policy Statement, the Growth Plan for the

Greater Golden Horseshoe, the Big Move and GO Transit’s

Strategic Plan for 2020 to drive inter-regional connectivity

and service expansion to designated Urban Growth

Centres, of which St. Catharines is one.

Niagara Station Travel Time to James North

Travel Time James North – Union

Total travel to Union Station

Fare to Hamilton (single)

Fare James North to Union (single)

Total fare to Union

Niagara Falls 76 minutes *incl.

20 min. layover

65 minutes 141 minutes =

2 hours, 21 mins

$11.50 $11.50 $23.00

St. Catharines 38 minutes 65 minutes 103 minutes =

1 hour, 43 mins

$9.80 $11.50 $21.30

Grimsby 20 minutes 65 minutes 85 minutes =

1 hour, 25 mins

$6.25 $11.50 $17.75

Proposed GO Train trip/fare schedule - Niagara routeSource: Transportation Tomorrow Survey (2011)

A FEASIBLE PLAN THAT MAKES DOLLARS AND SENSEIn quantifiable, economic terms, GO rail expansion to

Niagara makes sense. When comparing the capital and

operating costs with the benefits produced by way of travel

time, vehicle operating costs, accident avoidance, and

environmental benefits associated with diverting people

off the highways and onto transit, Niagara’s expansion has

a strong benefit-cost ratio of 1.85. Furthermore, there are

direct benefits associated with construction costs, which

will result in an economic impact (GDP) of $195 million,

more than 1,000 full-time jobs, $8 million in tax revenue

and 2,400 full-time jobs resulting from transit operations.

In the short-term, the Province of Ontario has funded a

number of large road infrastructure projects that connect

Niagara with the GTHA, including expansions to the QEW

and Highway 406. Highway expansion is both costly and

generally takes many years to approve, design and build.

Meanwhile, the proposed GO rail expansion costs a fraction

of what was spent on road infrastructure in the short term

alone and can deliver many of the aforementioned benefits.

This project is feasible. Given GO’s historical use of existing

corridors and tracks to extend its rail service network,

the proposed Niagara line fits into GO’s long-standing and

successful expansion strategy. Like its other rail lines, GO

Transit’s investment in rail expansion to Niagara represents

a significant step toward even more integrated transit

connectivity.

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Niagara has engaged top industry experts to perform the

necessary due diligence and ensure any risks associated

with GO rail expansion to Niagara are mitigated. Together,

we have identified low-cost solutions that maintain service

and scheduling expectations, coordinate construction and

maintain public safety. This is a low-risk project with high

economic impact.

THE TIME FOR GO TRAIN TO NIAGARA IS NOWWhile GO bus service currently operates in the region, rail

service not only signals a real commitment on the part of

the Province, but a sense of permanence for the residents

and businesses of Niagara, potential residents looking to

relocate and investors looking to help strengthen Niagara’s

communities. With the compelling and proven socio-

economic benefits of GO expansion, Niagara will be poised

for future growth and prosperity. Niagara stands ready to

mobilize all of the tools at its disposal to ensure a Provincial

investment in GO rail expansion to Niagara Falls, with

stops in Grimsby and St. Catharines, will realize provincial

objectives and be a catalyst for economic prosperity in our

communities.

NIAGARA IS UNITED. THE TIME FOR DAILY NIAGARA GO TRAIN SERVICE IS NOW.

8,600

4,200

1,2001,500

Niagara Region

City of Hamilton

Halton Region

Peel RegionCity of Toronto

5,300

2,000

1,1001,400

Niagara Region

City of Hamilton

Halton Region

Peel RegionCity of Toronto

2011 Niagara Region - GTA Peak Commuting Volumes

AM Peak Communting PM Peak Communting

Transporation Tomorrow Survey (2011)

Commuting Flows between Niagara Region and the GTHASource: Transportation Tomorrow Survey (2011)

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PROJECT SCORECARD RESULTSBACKGROUNDTHERE IS DEMAND • There is no direct transit service between the greater Hamilton Area and Niagara region, even though

55% of all inter-regional trips in Niagara are destined to Hamilton

• There is no direct private motorcoach service between Niagara region and Hamilton. The private automobile is the required mode of transportation

• Goods movement between Fort Erie and the GTA is being negatively impacted by increasing congestion along the QEW. Temporary relief through road improvements is a decade or more away. GO train service can happen fast.

• Bus ridership has increased from 430 passengers per day to approximately 1,200 passengers per day between the GTA and Hamilton and service has consequently increased in frequency to provide an hourly service

• Forecasted GO Train ridership is approximately 680 peak period, peak direction trips in 2021 and 1,190 in 2031

• Daily ridership of approximately 990 trips is forecast for 2021, and 1,780 for 2031

BENEFITS OF RAIL OVER BUS SERVICE

• GO Train passengers are ‘choice riders’ – they seek comfort and productivity

• Trains are more reliable than buses operating in mixed traffic

• Train traffic evokes a sense of permanence and reliability

• Daily GO Trains in Niagara signals a commitment on the part of the Province that it is supporting the prosperity of the region

BUILDING A DYNAMIC ECONOMY AND ACCESSIBLE EMPLOYMENTBUILDING ON LOCAL INVESTMENTS AND INNOVATION

• Niagara is investing in innovation and start-up hubs to attract and retain talent but needs GO for the transportation link

• The region has made many large investments in creating employment opportunities that would become more viable with improved inter-regional transit

ATTRACTING THE RIGHT (SKILLED) STAFF

• Can help relieve relatively high unemployment and attract skilled staff by linking employers to potential employees

• Can contribute to creating employment opportunities and youth retention by connecting people in both directions to the GTHA market

SUPPORTING THE TOURISM ECONOMY

• Supports growth of a major contributor to provincial GDP: tourism

• 92% of travellers arrive in Niagara by car/truck/RV; QEW is congested by tourist travellers, impacting goods movement

• Large potential transit market as visitors only spend $125 million on transit travel vs. $1.5 billion on car travel to region

EMPLOYMENT/POPULATION NEAR STATIONS

• St. Catharines and Niagara Falls have the potential for large population and employment densities in vicinity of GO stations. Mobility Hubs are being planned to accommodate growth, but need GO service to realize maximum potential

• Grimsby has a moderate population size, but limited employment and relies on connectivity with other locales for employment (i.e. GTHA). The large parking lot at the station will reduce the number of cars on the QEW

LAND VALUE UPLIFT • Land value around three Niagara stations estimated to produce over $50 million in uplift to the local economy

BUILDING ON REGIONAL AND LOCAL PLANNING INITIATIVESFITS IN WITH REGIONAL PLANS

• Aligns with Niagara Region’s Strategic Goals and Plans, including Niagara 2031: A Strategy for a Healthy, Sustainable Future and Sustainable Niagara - Our Niagara in 2060

MEETS MUNICIPAL OBJECTIVES

• Aligns with Municipal Official Plans and Transportation Strategies in Niagara Falls, St. Catharines and Grimsby

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LEVERAGING EXISTING PLANNING MECHANISMS FOR INVESTMENT

• Two of the three municipalities have CIP areas that align with the proposed location of GO rail stops/stations

BUILDING ON LOCAL TRANSIT INVESTMENT

• Will enhance municipal transit investment

• Establishment of inter-municipal transit routes. GO will act as a catalyst for future growth of Niagara Region Transit network.

• Mobility Hub studies underway

• Nodes and Corridors study completed

• Regional Transportation Master Plan is dependent upon outcome of GO extension

A MULTI-MODAL TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

• St. Lawrence Seaway Connections/Welland Canal major transportation route

• Niagara District Airport investments

• Connections to the future high speed Empire Rail Line in New York State, currently under construction

QUALITY OF LIFEACCESS TO EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND CONNECTING HEALTHCARE FACILITIES

• Better access to post-secondary educational facilities can make it easier for students, faculty, staff and visitors, helping to promote students to remain in Niagara post-graduation. A transit link to the GTHA is required

• Residents can have better access to healthcare facilities - over 6,000 Niagara residents are discharged from Hamilton hospitals each year. A transit link to the GTHA is required

• Transit would support the large number of healthcare jobs in Hamilton and Niagara region by linking work and home trips

RETIREMENT & ACCESSIBILITY

• The aging population will rely on public transit options for accessibility

LIVE-WORK CHOICE • Large bedroom communities (e.g. Grimsby and West Lincoln) working in Hamilton, Burlington and into the GTA

• Increasingly large group seeking to live outside of urban environment but continue to work in GTHA

• Predictable commute times

BENEFIT-COST RATIO (BCR)BENEFIT-COST RATIO > 1

• Total BCR: 1.85, based a low-growth scenario (this increases to 2.65 under a high growth scenario)

• Capital cost of project is less than $150 million

• Operational savings from existing GO bus service= $49 million

• Travel time savings= $230 million

• Vehicle operating cost savings= $57 million

• Collision cost savings= $7 million

• Environmental benefits= $2 million

DIRECT CONSTRUCTION & OPERATIONS BENEFITSECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM $130 M INVESTMENT

• Economic Impact (GDP)= $195 million

• Employment from investment= 1,200 full-time jobs

• Taxes arising from investment= $8.4 million

• Employment from transit operations= 2,400 full-time jobs

STRATEGIC FITMEETS PROVINCIAL OBJECTIVES

• Aligns with Provincial Policies/Plans, including the PPS, the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, the Big Move and GO Transit’s Strategic Plan GO: 2020

• Aligns with Government of Ontario commitment to spend $29 billion on infrastructure, for which $14 billion is to be spent on infrastructure outside the GTHA.

PROJECT READINESS

• GO Transit can make an incremental, cost-effective service improvement by utilizing existing track infrastructure

• Completed Environmental Assessment (EA) in 2011

• Engaged partners (12 local area municipalities, St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation, widespread community & business support)

LEVERAGE OTHER INVESTMENTS - RAIL VS. HIGHWAY

• Province has already made large investments in road infrastructure through Niagara. Needs a solid investment in the region’s public transit services through the establishment of GO rail services

• Leverage significant investment made by Province through the establishment of GO rail services at James Street North Station in Hamilton to maximize station investment

FUNDING • One-third municipal contribution to total capital costs

| BUSINESS CASEVI |

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GO TRAIN SERVICE IS IMPORTANT TO THE CONTINUED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF NIAGARA AND THE PROVINCE.Niagara GO, Facebook Page

NIAGARA GO RAILA CASE FOR WEEKDAY GO TRAIN SERVICE BETWEEN NIAGARA AND THE GTHA

APRIL 2015

BUSINESS CASE PRIMER