ni labour market december 2012
DESCRIPTION
Northern Ireland Labour Market Update Issued 14th December 2012 Richard Ramsey Ulster Bank Chief Economist Northern Ireland [email protected]TRANSCRIPT
Northern Ireland Labour Market Update
Issued 14th December 2012
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
Workforce JobsEmployee Jobs + Government Supported
Trainees + Self-employed
54,700 fewer workforce jobs in June 2012 relative to June 2008 – a fall of 6.4% (only updated annually)
NI Workforce in Employment Jobs (Employee Jobs + Self Employment + Govt supported trainees)
803.4k
858.1k
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
850,000
900,000
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: DFP, jobs in June of each year
13,500 fewer self-employed jobs in June 2012 relative to June 2008 – a fall of 11% (only updated annually in Sept)
NI Self-Employment Jobs
108.6k122.1k
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: DFP, jobs in June of each year
NI has not experienced the jobs recovery that has occurred within the UK (only updated annually in September)
NI & UK Workforce Jobs Annual % Growth
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Y/Y
NI UK
Source: DFP & NOMIS, jobs in June of each year
UK workforce jobs are just 0.5% below their June 2008 peak whereas NI has not recouped any of its job losses
NI & UK Workforce Jobs (as of June 2012)
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
June 2008 Peak to Trough Recovery from Trough Net Position Relative toJune 2008 Peak
NI UK
Source: DFP & NOMIS, June annual figures
Quarterly Employment Survey (QES)
QES is an employer survey (@ 5,500 companies) that measures the actual number of jobs (employees in
employment) as opposed to the number of individuals in employment (as in the Labour Force Survey). The QES
excludes the self-employed but is the preferred measure of employment within Northern Ireland
Summary Table – Quarterly Employment SurveyConstruction Services Manufacturing Total
2007 Q1 43,460 567,150 83,850 715,510
Q2 44,710 571,050 84,100 720,750
Q3 45,320 575,090 83,960 725,440
Q4 46,820 578,950 83,440 729,380
2008 Q1 45,860 582,910 83,710 732,620
Q2 44,860 584,430 83,390 733,050
Q3 43,500 581,240 82,260 727,440
Q4 41,670 579,670 80,080 721,460
2009 Q1 39,420 577,660 78,180 715,220
Q2 38,210 576,980 75,340 710,440
Q3 36,780 577,460 74,070 708,110
Q4 37,120 581,210 73,280 711,430
2010 Q1 36,960 579,640 73,070 709,510
Q2 36,200 578,950 73,090 707,870
Q3 35,790 576,290 73,010 704,890
Q4 33,610 573,890 73,790 701,120
2011 Q1 33,370 573,040 73,590 699,840
Q2 32,780 570,620 73,510 697,180,Q3 32,930 569,150 73,850 695,930
Q4 31,640 565,050 75,420 691,900
2012 Q1 31,460 564,910 74,680 690,850
Q2 31,320 565,590 75,360 692,190
Q3 31,010 566,220 75,360 692,460
Latest Quarter Q/Q % Change ‐1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Latest Quarter Y/Y % Change ‐5.8% ‐0.5% 2.0% ‐0.5%
Fall from peak ‐ Nos* ‐15,810 ‐18,210 ‐8,740 ‐40,590
Fall from peak % Change* ‐33.8% ‐3.1% ‐10.4% ‐5.5%
Northern Ireland Employees Jobs (Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: DFP, **Peak to trough fall does not strictly use comparable data and is indicative only
DISCONTINUITY IN DATA SERIES DISCONTINUITY IN DATA SERIES↑ Old Series ↑
↓ New Series ↓ ↓ New Series ↓
NI posts second quarterly rise since Q2 2008 in Q3 2012 (Q4 2009 represents start of new series & therefore not a Q/Q rise)
NI Employee Jobs Quarterly ChangeExcludes self-employed
270
1,340
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
Q32007
Q12008
Q32008
Q12009
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q12011
Q32011
Q12012
Q32012
Nos
Source: DFP
Discontinuity in Series
24,940 20,580
Current employment levels back at late 2004 levels
Northern Ireland Employee Jobs
692,460
613,250 Q2 1998
733,050
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
Q1 1993 Q3 1995 Q1 1998 Q3 2000 Q1 2003 Q3 2005 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q3 2012
Source: DFP
Discontinuity in Series
Service sector: 2 successive quarters of modest growth
NI Services Employee Jobs Quarterly ChangeExcludes self-employed
630680
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Q32007
Q12008
Q32008
Q12009
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q12011
Q32011
Q12012
Q32012
Nos
Source: DFP
Discontinuity in Series
-7,450 -16,300
Service sector employment is back to late 2006 / early 2007 levels
Northern Ireland Services Employee Jobs
Q2 1998454,990
566,220
584,430
375,000
425,000
475,000
525,000
575,000
625,000
Q1 1993 Q1 1997 Q1 2001 Q1 2005 Q1 2009 Q3 2012
Source: DFP
Discontinuity in Series
Manufacturing employment unchanged in Q3NI Manufacturing Employee Jobs
Quarterly Change (Excludes self-employed)
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Q32007
Q12008
Q32008
Q12009
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q12011
Q32011
Q12012
Q32012
Nos
Source: DFP
Discontinuity in Series
-9,640
Recent manufacturing employment gains are within a longer-term trend of job losses
NI Manufacturing Employee Jobs Levels
104,940 (Q3 1998 just after GFA)
75,360
84,100Q2 2007
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
Q1 1993 Q3 1995 Q1 1998 Q3 2000 Q1 2003 Q3 2005 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q3 2012
Source: DFP
Discontinuity in Series
Construction sector has witnessed employment declines in 17 of the last 18 quarters
NI Construction Employee Jobs Quarterly Change (Excludes self-employed)
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Q12007
Q32007
Q12008
Q32008
Q12009
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q12011
Q32011
Q12012
Q32012
Nos
Source: DFP
Discontinuity in Series
-10,040-6,110
Construction employment back to 1999 levels
NI Construction Employee Jobs Levels
31,010
46,820
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Q1 1993 Q3 1995 Q1 1998 Q3 2000 Q1 2003 Q3 2005 Q1 2008 Q1 2010 Q3 2012
Source: DFP, QES
Discontinuity in Series
Back to 1999 levels
Northern Ireland’s Job losses, recovery and
current (net) position 2007/08-2012
No meaningful jobs recovery outside of manufacturing
Northern Ireland Employment (Employee Jobs)
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
All Sectors Services Manufacturing Construction
Peak to Trough Recovery from Trough Q3 2012 Relative to Peak
Source: DFP, QES
Utilities post largest annual % gain with manufacturing the largest numerical gain
Construction / property related
Construction / property related
Utilities, manufacturing
& tourism related sectors
Broad Industrial Group Net Job Change % Change
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply 140 10.9%
Arts, entertainment & recreation 1,250 9.0%
Administrative & support service activities 1,160 2.8%
Professional, scientific & technical activities 1,120 2.8%
Manufacturing 1,490 2.0%
Accomodation & food service activities 360 0.9%
Real estate activities 60 0.8%
Transport & storage 10 0.0%
Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles ‐330 ‐0.3%
Agriculture, forestry & fishing ‐120 ‐1.0%
Other service activities ‐150 ‐1.1%
Education ‐940 ‐1.4%
Human health & social work activities ‐1,930 ‐1.6%
Information & communication ‐280 ‐1.7%
Public administration & defence; social security ‐960 ‐1.7%
Mining & quarrying ‐30 ‐1.8%
Water supply, sewerage, waste management ‐120 ‐2.5%
Construction ‐1,920 ‐5.8%
Financial & insurance activities ‐1,610 ‐7.9%
Total ‐3,290 ‐0.5%
Source: DFP ‐ Quarterly Employment Survey (Seasonally Unadjusted), Excludes self‐employed
Northern Ireland Employment Change (Ranked by % change)September 2011 ‐ September 2012
Utilities, manufacturing
& tourism related sectors
Property related sectors & manufacturing have seen the biggest job losses over the last 4 years
Construction / property related
Construction / property related
UtilitiesUtilities
Broad Industrial Group Net Job Change % Change
Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply 230 19.3%
Real estate activities 730 11.2%
Arts, entertainment & recreation 1,360 9.8%
Human health & social work activities 590 0.5%
Other service activities 30 0.2%
Education ‐250 ‐0.4%
Agriculture, forestry & fishing ‐150 ‐1.2%
Professional, scientific & technical activities ‐400 ‐1.7%
Information & communication ‐280 ‐1.7%
Water supply, sewerage, waste management ‐180 ‐3.7%
Administrative & support service activities ‐1,610 ‐3.7%
Accommodation & food service activities ‐1,980 ‐4.5%
Public administration & defence; social security ‐2,640 ‐4.5%
Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles ‐6,940 ‐5.4%
Transport & storage ‐1,390 ‐5.4%
Financial & insurance activities ‐1,360 ‐6.8%
Manufacturing ‐7,060 ‐8.6%
Mining & quarrying ‐470 ‐22.0%
Construction ‐12,490 ‐28.7%
Total ‐34,260 ‐4.7%
Source: DFP ‐ Quarterly Employment Survey (Seasonally Unadjusted), Excludes self‐employed
Northern Ireland Employment Change (Ranked by % change)September 2008 ‐ September 2012
Northern Ireland’s ‘Employment Recessions’ & Recoveries Compared
1980s
1990s
2008-2012
Longest period of job losses but not as deep as the 1980s. But returning to peak is likely to take longer than 1980s (10yrs)
NI Employee Jobs Recessions / Recoveries Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100
1980s10yrs after downturn
employment returns to peak
1990s10yrs after peak
employment rose by 19%
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Peak 1 year 2yrs 3yrs 4yrs 5yrs 6yrs 7yrs 8yrs 9yrs 10yrsTime Since Pre-Recession Peak
Index
1980s 1990s 2008-2012
Employment troughed (-7.5%)13 quarters after 1979 Q4 peak & was 7.0% below peak
after 17 quarters
2008-201215 quarters of decline before rise in 16th quarter.17 quarters after 2008 Q2 peak NI jobs have fallen by 5.5% as of Q3 2012 Q2
In 1990 UK recession, NI employment fell slightly & troughed 2 years after the
pre-recession peak
Source: DFP & UB Calculations
Manufacturing job losses have been nowhere near what they were like in the 1980s but recovery may be similar
NI Manufacturing Recessions & Recoveries in Employee Jobs (Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100)
21 quarters after Q2 1979 peak employment was 26%
lower
2.3% below Q3 1990 peak after 21 quarters
10.4% decline 21 quarters after Q2 2007 peak
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Peak 1 year 2yrs 3yrs 4yrs 5yrs 6yrs 7yrs 8yrs 9yrs 10yrsTime Since Pre-Recession Peak
Index
1980s 1990s 2007-2012
Source: DFP & UB Calculations
Construction is experiencing the fastest & deepest recession in terms of job losses. A 1980s-style recovery is expected
NI Construction Recessions & Recoveries Compared (Employee Jobs Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100)
Peak 1979 Q2
Peak 1990 Q3
2007Q4 - 2012 Q360
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Peak 1 year 2yrs 3yrs 4yrs 5yrs 6yrs 7yrs 8yrs 9yrs 10yrsTime Since Pre-Recession Peak
Index
1980s 1990s 2007- 2012
Source: DFP & UB calculations
Current recession has seen construction employment fall by one third in 4 years. In the 1980s it took over 7
years to for employment to fall by a similar margin
Service sector is experiencing its longest & deepest recession. Unfortunately recovery will be weaker than 1980s
NI Service Sector Recoveries in Employee JobsPre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100
+15% rise in 10 years
+27% rise in 10yrs
Peak 2008 Q1
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Peak 1 year 2yrs 3yrs 4yrs 5yrs 6yrs 7yrs 8yrs 9yrs 10yrsTime Since Pre-Recession Peak
Index
1980s 1990s 2008-2012
Current recession is the longest and deepest recession to date. 17 quarters on employment still
3.1% below peak
1990s: NI lacked a developed private services sector which explains lack of job
losses in early 1990s UK recession
Source: DFP & UB Calculations
1980s: 17 quarters after employment peak service sector employment was almost 3%
above pre-recession peak
NI Public Sector v Private Sector Employment Levels
& Growth
Headline public & private sector growth rates are misleading due to reclassification of some institutions as public sector
NI Public v Private Sector Employment Growth
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Q31994
Q11996
Q31997
Q11999
Q32000
Q12002
Q32003
Q12005
Q32006
Q12008
Q32009
Q12011
Q32012
Public Private
Source: DFP
Job gains exaggerated as @5k jobs in financial institutions reclassified as public sector
Job losses exaggerated as @5k jobs in financial institutions moved
from private to public sector
Adjusting for the movement from private to public sector presents a slightly different picture
NI Public v Private Sector Employment Growth
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Q3 1994 Q3 1997 Q3 2000 Q3 2003 Q3 2006 Q3 2009 Q3 2012
Public* (excluding financial institutions)Private (incl. part-nationalised institutions)
Source: DFP, * Ulster Bank estimates
6
Private sector employment has stabilised.. But will it last?
NI Private Sector Employee Jobs
478,900
515,000
482,900
350,000
375,000
400,000
425,000
450,000
475,000
500,000
525,000
550,000
Q31994
Q31996
Q31998
Q32000
Q32002
Q32004
Q32006
Q32008
Q32010
Q32012
Private Sector Unadjusted for Financial Institutions reclassification
Private Sector Adjusted (incl. part-nationalised institutions)
Source: DFP & UB estimates
Good Friday Agreement
Signed April 1998418,170 Q2 1998
Public sector employment boom has been & gone. A sustained period of job losses is anticipated going forward
NI Public Sector Employee Jobs Levels
213,480
Pre-recession peak Q4 2005221,050
Good Friday Agreement Signed April 1998
195,120 Q2 98209,480
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
220,000
230,000
Q3 1994 Q3 1997 Q3 2000 Q3 2003 Q3 2006 Q3 2009 Q3 2012
Public Unadjusted Public Adjusted* (excl. financial institutions)
Source: DFP, * UB estimates
Public sector employment boosted by @5k in Q4 2008 as
part-nationalised financial institutions reclassified as
public sector. Public sector jobs (excl. financial institutions) now estimated at @209.5k or
Q4 2002 levels.
+26,000 jobs (13%) in 7yrs
post GFA
Private sector employment has fallen by an estimated 6.2% since peak with public sector down around 4.1%
NI Public & Private Sector Employment % Change Q2 2008 - Q3 2012
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
Headline PublicSector
Headline PrivateSector
Public Sector*(excl.part-nationalisedfinancial institutions)
Private Sector* (incl.part-nationalised
financial institutions)
Source: DFP & *UB Estimates
NI V UK Employment Performance
Employee Jobs
The UK posts growth in 3 of the last 4 quarters
NI v UK Quarterly Employment Growth (Employee Jobs)
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012
Q/Q
NI UK
Source: DFP & NOMIS
NI has not posted year-on-year employment growth since Q3 2008
All Employees Annual Employment Growth
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Q31982
Q21986
Q11990
Q41993
Q31997
Q22001
Q12005
Q42008
Q32012
Y/Y
NI UK
Source: DFP & NOMIS
NI outperformed the UK in the early 1990s but not now
NI/UK Divergence with employment recovery
Employment growth has been lacking in both NI & the UK construction sectors
NI v UK Construction Employment Growth Q/Q (Employee Jobs)
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012
Q/Q
NI UK
Source: DFP & NOMIS
NI’s construction sector experienced sharper rises and falls relative to the UK
Construction Annual Employment Growth Employee Jobs
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Q21983
Q31986
Q41989
Q11993
Q21996
Q31999
Q42002
Q12006
Q22009
Q32012
NI UK
Source: DFP & NOMIS
NI outperformed the UK in the early 1990s but not now
Both NI & UK manufacturing employment growth flat in Q3
NI v UK Manufacturing Employment Growth Q/Q (Employee Jobs)
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012
Q/Q
NI UK
Source: DFP & NOMIS
NI experienced a shallower employment recession in the 1980s relative to the UK. History has not repeated itself
NI & UK Manufacturing Annual Employment Growth
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Q21983
Q31986
Q41989
Q11993
Q21996
Q31999
Q42002
Q12006
Q22009
Q32012
Y/Y
NI UK
Source: DFP & NOMIS
NI outperformed the UK in the early 1990s
but not in 2009
UK service sector has posted employment gains in 4 of the last 6 quarters, NI has managed just 2 quarters
NI v UK Services Quarterly Employment Growth (Employee Jobs)
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012
Q/Q
NI UK
Source: DFP & NOMIS
NI’s service sector diverged from the UK in the 1990s UK recession & is diverging in the current one too
Service Sector Annual Employment Growth
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Q2 1983 Q3 1990 Q4 1997 Q1 2005 Q2 2012
Y/Y
NI UK
Source: DFP & NOMIS
NI outperformed the UK in the early 1990s but not now
NI/UK Divergence with employment recovery
Apart from manufacturing, NI’s job losses have been more severe than in the UK
Employee Jobs Q3 2012 relative to recent peaks
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Construction Manufacturing Services Total
NI UK NI Peak Q4 2007
NI Peak Q2 2007
NI Peak Q2 2008 NI Peak Q2 2008
Source: DFP & NOMIS
NI & UK Employee Jobs Full-Time & Part-Time
Employment boom was predominantly part-time jobs while employment gloom is largely full-time
NI Annual Employment GrowthFull-Time & Part-Time Employee Jobs
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Sep-94 Sep-96 Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12
Y/Y
Full-Time Part-Time Total
Part-time employment growing at a much faster rate than full-time employment
Full-time employment falling at a much faster rate than part-time
More than twice as many full-time jobs lost as part-time
NI Employee Jobs Q3 2012 relative to recent peaks
-7.2%
-3.5%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Manufacturing Construction Services Total*
Full-Time Part-Time
…leading to a change in NI’s employment mix
% of NI Employee Jobs Full-Time v Part-Time
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
Sep-94 Sep-97 Sep-00 Sep-03 Sep-06 Sep-09 Sep-12
Full-Time Part-Time
Full-time employment's share of total employment is falling
Part-time employment's share of total employment is rising
Source: DFP
NI outperformed the UK in the boom but is underperforming in the recovery
NI & UK Full-Time Annual Employment Growth Employee Jobs
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Sep-94 Sep-96 Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12
Y/Y
UK NI
NI’s full-time employment back to 2004 levels
NI Full-time & Part-time Employee Jobs Indexed Q1 1998 = 100
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12
Index
FT PT
NI full-time employment back to 2004 levels
NI lags the UK in part-time employment growth too
NI & UK Part-Time Annual Employment Growth Employee Jobs
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Sep-94 Sep-96 Sep-98 Sep-00 Sep-02 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12
Y/Y
UK NI
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
November 2012 Survey Update
Issued 10th December 2012
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
PMI SurveysPurchasing Managers’
Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and
prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents
reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater
the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted
to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages
have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.
Northern Ireland’s rate of decline in employment levels eases sharply in November
Private Sector Employment LevelsMonthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Job Gains
Job Losses
… all NI sectors post employment declines over last 3 months although manufacturing posts growth in November
NI PMI - Employment Index 3 month moving average
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Job Gains
Job Losses
After the North West, Northern Ireland posts the steepest decline in employment over the last month …
Employment LevelsNovember 2012
50 = No change
49.4
51.8
47.9
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
Y&H EM SE SW Scot East NE WM Wal UK Lon NI NW RoI
PMI Index
IncreasingD
ecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
…and steepest decline over the last 3 months…
Employment LevelsLast 3 months to November 2012
50 = No change
49
46.4
51.9
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
EM WM Y&H Scot SE UK East Wal SW NW NE Lon NI RoI
PMI index
IncreasingD
ecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
…and over the last 12 months
Employment LevelsLast 12 Months to November 2012
50 = No change
50.6
49.9
46.9
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
EM WM Y&H SE Scot East UK SW NE NW Wal Lon NI RoI
PMI index
IncreasingD
ecreasing
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Northern Ireland Quarterly Employment Survey (QES)
V Markit Economics / Ulster
Bank PMI
PMI has been a reliable indicator of employment trends
NI Employment: PMI (up to Nov-12) v QES*
35
40
45
50
55
60
Dec-03 Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12
PMI Index
-1.5%
-1.3%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-0.5%
-0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
0.5%
0.8%
1.0%Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI & includes the public sector
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction,PMI 3mth averages
Services PMI more negative in Q2 & Q3 than QES. Q4 PMI signals further job losses albeit marginal
NI Services Employment: PMI (up to Nov-12) v QES*
40
45
50
55
60
65
Dec-03 Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12
PMI Index
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction,PMI 3mth averages
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI and includes the public sector
Slide 59
Manufacturing PMI suggested employment levels stabilised in Q3
NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI (Nov-12) v QES*
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Dec-03 Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12
PMI Index
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction,PMI 3mth averages
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms
Slide 60
The PMI & official QES numbers have pointed to job losses throughout downturn. PMI suggests further job losses in Q4
NI Construction Employment: PMI (to Nov-12) v QES
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Dec-03 Jun-05 Dec-06 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-11 Dec-12
PMI Index
-10.0%
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
Q/Q
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
Discontinuity in QES Series
Job losses
Job gains
*QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion / contraction,PMI 3mth averages
Unemployment
NI dole queue still lengthening on a monthly basis
Slide 62
NI unemployment still pushing higher Claimant Count Monthly Change
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12
M/M
Nov 2008
+3,200
Nov2012+500
Source: DFP
…the overall dole queue is now at 64,700
Slide 63
NI Unemployment Claimant Count Levels
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Nov-85 Nov-88 Nov-91 Nov-94 Nov-97 Nov-00 Nov-03 Nov-06 Nov-09 Nov-12
Source: DFP
Nov 2012 64,700 highest levels
since April 1997
Record low Aug 0723,500
Good Friday Agreement signed
April 199857,900
No jobs for the boys? It’s been a ‘Mancession’
Slide 64
NI 12 Monthly Change in Claimant Count
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12
Male Female
Source: DFP, ONS
Rise in male unemployment accelerating again
Slide 65
NI Claimant Count by Gender
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Nov-72 Nov-77 Nov-82 Nov-87 Nov-92 Nov-97 Nov-02 Nov-07 Nov-12
Male Female
Source: ONS, NOMIS
Unemployment a major problem within the <25s
Slide 66
Youth unemployment falls for last 3 three monthsClaimant Count Monthly Change
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12
Source: DFP
No. of under 25s claiming the dole is 1/3rd above GFA levels
Slide 67
NI Youth Claimant Count Levels<25 years of age
17,876
Nov 07 low 7,050
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Nov-96 Nov-98 Nov-00 Nov-02 Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12
Source: DFP
19,551 Highest level since October
1996
GFAApril 1998
14,145
Not all sun, sea and sangria for NI’s Club 18-34: the first-time buyers of today and tomorrow
Slide 68
NI Unemployment by Age
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Jan-12 Nov-12
<25yrs of Age 25-34 Yrs of Age
Source: ONS, Claimant Count
House price peak
Rise in claimant count across all occupation types
Slide 69
Occupation November 2012
LevelsIncrease in Numbers Nov 2007 ‐ Nov 2012
% Change
Sales & Customer Service Occupations 10,720 8,015 296%Personal Service Occupations 4,715 3,370 251%Skilled Trades Occupations 12,030 8,150 210%Associate Professional & Technical Occupations 3,290 2,180 196%Managers & Senior Officials 735 1,120 191%Process, Plant & Machine Operatives 8,135 5,255 182%Administrative & Secretarial Occupations 4,720 2,940 165%Professional Occupations 1,865 1,100 144%Elementary Occupations 16,290 8,930 121%Source: ONS, refers to occupation sought by claimants
Claimant Count Levels & Growth by Occupation ( Ranked by % Growth)
NI-UK Unemployment Differential is returning where it was before the NICE Decade
Slide 70
NI-UK unemployment rate differential widening
7.1%
4.8%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Nov-98 Nov-00 Nov-02 Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Nov-10 Nov-12
%
NI UK
Source: ONS / DFP Claimant Count
2.3 pp
May 19992.4 pp
NI has the second highest unemployment rate using the claimant count
Slide 71
Claimant Count Unemployment by UK RegionNovember 2012
4.9
7.8
7.1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
SE SW East Lon EM UK Scot Wal NW WM Y&H NI NE
%Source: DFP & ONS, % of Workforce
NI’s unemployment rate in line with the UK’s (although we view NI ILO figure flatters true NI position) but remains well below that of the RoI
Slide 72
UK, NI & RoI Unemployment Rates
NI & UK 7.8%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
Oct-96 Oct-98 Oct-00 Oct-02 Oct-04 Oct-06 Oct-08 Oct-10 Oct-12
NI UK RoI
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey & CSO Live Register
… but only 4 regions have a lower rate using the ILO unemployment rate
Slide 73
ILO Unemployment Rate August - October 2012
7.8% 7.8%
9.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
SW SE East Scot UK NI Wal EM NW WM Y&H Lon NE
Rate
And the employment rate is the lowest in the UK
Slide 74
ILO Employment Rate (16-64yr olds) August - October 2012
67.5
71.2
60
65
70
75
80
NI NE Lon Wal NW WM Scot EM Y&H UK SE SW East
Employment Rate
NI’s economic inactivity rate remains the highest within the UK
Slide 75
ILO Economic Inactivity Rate Rate (16-64yr olds) August - October 2012
22.6
26.7
15
20
25
30
East SE SW EM Y&H UK WM Scot Lon NW Wal NE NI
Rate %
Slide 76
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