NHL Shot Probability MapsMichael Schuckers

St. Lawrence Universityschuckers@stlawu.edu

Powerpoint slides based upon poster presentation at 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings

Vancouver, BCAugust 2, 2010

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

DATA

• Based on all NHL regular season shots 08-09 and 09-10– Excludes penalty shots, empty net shots,

shootouts• Spatial mapping of probability of a goal • Offensive Zone: Blue line to Goal line– [Blue line at left, Goal at Right]

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

League Average (Darker is higher)

Blue Line Goal Line

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

Goal probability maps

• Maps are differences from league-wide average probability of a goal at a given location– Red above average (Good for shooters)– Blue below average (Good for goalies)– White is league average

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

Difference from League Averagefor each of the 5 holes/zones

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

Forwards

Red is above average (GOOD)Blue is below average (BAD)

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

Goalies

Red is above average (BAD)Blue is below average (GOOD)

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

Martin Broudeur – Goalie – New Jersey DevilsGO

AL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

GOAL

Michael Schuckers (NHL Spatial Shot Analysis)

Shot Prob in Offensive Zone( A. Niemi )

-20

0

20

40 50 60 70 80

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

GOAL