nfi odce performance attribution webinar - ncreif · webinar fourth quarter 2017 review. ncreif...
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NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
NFI‐ODCE Performance Attribution Webinar
Fourth Quarter 2017 Review
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
Panelist Overview
Joe D’AlessandroNCREIF Director of Real Estate Performance Measurement
Tim BollaVice President, Bentall Kennedy’s ODCE Fund
Fund analytics and reporting
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
Total Returns by Asset ClassComparison as of December 31, 2017
Source: FRED (BofA Merrill Lynch)
2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5%
6.6%
1.2%
7.6% 7.8% 7.4%
8.9%
6.9%
5.2%
22.0%
7.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
NFI‐ODCE ‐ gross of feesValue‐weight
NFI‐ODCE ‐ gross of feesEqual‐weight
NFI‐Daily Priced Equal‐weight
(est. gross of fees)
Leveraged NPI NPI NAREIT Equity REIT Index S&P 500Index
US Corporate BBB Bonds
4Q 2017 2017
3
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
Total Returns by Asset ClassLast Three Year Annual Returns
Source: FRED (BofA Merrill Lynch)
15.0% 15.2%
11.3%
20.7%
13.5%
3.2%
1.4%
‐2.2%
8.8% 9.3%7.7%
10.8%9.2%
8.5%
12.0%
8.1%7.6% 7.8% 7.4%8.9%
6.9%5.2%
22.0%
7.4%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
NFI‐ODCE ‐ gross of feesValue‐weight
NFI‐ODCE ‐ gross of feesEqual‐weight
NFI‐Daily Priced Equal‐weight
(est. gross of fees)
Leveraged NPI NPI NAREIT Equity REIT Index S&P 500Index
US Corporate BBB Bonds
2015 2016 2017
4
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
Quarterly Attribution Impact Trendsfor the one year ended December 31, 2017
Page 4 of Report
5
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
Quarterly Total Returns by Property Type
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
20171 20172 20173 20174
ODCE APT IND OFF RET Other
6
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
One Year Total Returns by Property TypeComparison as of December 31, 2017
7.2%
5.8%
4.2%
13.8%
6.6%
5.6%
7.5%6.9%
5.4% 5.3%
13.3%
6.6%5.6%
8.2%
6.9%6.2%
4.9%
13.1%
6.0% 5.7%
9.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
All Properties Apartment Hotel Industrial Office Retail Other
ODCE, at ownership share ODCE, 100% ownership NPI, 100% ownership
7
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
Property Performance Details
8
Page 6 of Report
Page 7 of Report
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
Quarterly Total Allocations by Property Type
9
25.3% 25.4% 25.2% 24.9% 25.1%
13.3% 13.3% 13.6% 14.0% 14.7%
38.1% 38.0% 37.9% 38.0% 37.4%
19.4% 19.4% 19.2% 19.2% 19.0%
2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8%2.8%1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
20164 20171 20172 20173 20174
APT IND OFF RET Other HOT & Land
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
One Year Total Returns by Property TypeComparison as of December 31, 2017
Page 4 of Report
10
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
Quarterly Leverage Impact Trendsfor the one year ended December 31, 2017
Page 4 of Report
Change in 10yr Treasury Rate ‐.05% ‐.09% +.02% +.07%
End of Qtr 10yr Treasury Rate: 2.45 2.40 2.31 2.33 2.40
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NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
Acquisition Trends
$4.4 $5.0$1.8
$2.3$3.2
$2.6
$10.5 $8.9
$2.8
$4.4 $5.5
$1.4
$0.7$0.4
$0.1
$0.2$0.4
$0.4
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
2015 2016 2017
A I O R X L
MV_Legal PropertYear A I O R X L Total2015 $4.4 $2.3 $10.5 $4.4 $0.7 $0.2 $22.42016 $5.0 $3.2 $8.9 $5.5 $0.4 $0.4 $23.42017 $1.8 $2.6 $2.8 $1.4 $0.1 $0.4 $9.1Total $11.2 $8.1 $22.2 $11.3 $1.2 $1.1 $55.0
$ billions
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Total Return
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
Disposition Trends
$2.4 $3.1 $3.8$1.0
$1.9 $1.0
$5.1
$8.3
$4.5
$0.5
$0.9
$1.5$0.1
$0.0
$0.1$0.6
$0.1
$0.3
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
2015 2016 2017
A I O R X L HTotal Return
Year A I O R X L H Total2015 $2.4 $1.0 $5.1 $0.5 $0.1 $0.1 $0.6 $9.82016 $3.1 $1.9 $8.3 $0.9 $0.0 $0.1 $0.1 $14.52017 $3.8 $1.0 $4.5 $1.5 $0.1 $0.0 $0.3 $11.2Total $9.2 $4.0 $17.9 $2.9 $0.3 $0.2 $1.1 $35.5
$ billions
13
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
Net Yearly Activity (Acq – Dispo)
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‐$3.0
‐$2.0
‐$1.0
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
2015 2016 2017
A I O R X L H
Net Activity A I O R X L H Total2015 $2.0 $1.2 $5.3 $3.9 $0.6 $0.1 ‐$0.6 $12.62016 $1.9 $1.3 $0.6 $4.6 $0.3 $0.4 ‐$0.1 $9.02017 ‐$1.9 $1.6 ‐$1.7 ‐$0.1 ‐$0.1 $0.4 ‐$0.3 ‐$2.1Total $2.0 $4.1 $4.2 $8.3 $0.9 $0.9 $53.9 $19.5
NCREIF Performance Attribution Webinar
This concludes today’s Webinar. Thank you for joining us!Upcoming Events:
NCREIF Winter Conference 2018 in Scottsdale, AZ at Scottsdale McCormick Ranch March 14‐16
NCREIF Certificate Courses in Scottsdale, AZ, March 12‐13
NCREIF Summer Conference in Charlotte, NC, June 19‐22
NCREIF Certificate Courses in Dallas, TX at SMU July 16‐19
Visit www.ncreif.org for more information