nfdrs 2016 initial rollout plan...nfdrs 2016 initial rollout plan december 12/ 2017 this document is...

NFDRS 2016 Initial Rollout Plan December 12/ 2017

This document is the initia l plan for the phased rollout of the NFDRS 2016 model and applications. This plan seeks to accomplish two goals: 1) updating users on the new science and 2) improve the use of NFDRS through standardized, interagency applications of the system. This plan includes updates to the tools (Fire Family Plus and the Weather Information Management System) which utilize the system (NFDRS 2016 model). This rollout will be completed in stages using defined user groups. Also, this rollout incorporates both the NFDRS 2016 model along with improvements in the application of the system based on policy. This plan will have changes to reflect input received from regions and field units during the two years of implementation.

A core value for the wild land fire community is all jurisdictions participate in making and implementing safe, effective, efficient risk-based wildfire management decisions. The National Fire Danger Rat ing system provides a consistent framework, in a complex, interagency environment for situational awareness, wildfire response, fire restriction and fire prevention decisions.

It is highly encouraged for all agencies with wild land responsibilities to participate in the full rollout, including the workshops. However, the entire rollout process will have a module designed to provide information for those who only desire to have updates on the NFDRS 2016 model.

This rollout plan includes the testing, calibration, evaluation criteria and incorporation of input from testers. The output is to provide a stable NFDRS 2016 system along with updates to Fire Family Plus (FFPlus) and the Weather Information Management System (WIMS) which users can become comfortable with the new model outputs and applications.

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Evaluc1te tools/evaluc1te systemSME

learning pathway

General User

learning pathway

as c P dUse,

Basic Use, Practice, understanding comparison and of NFDRS2016 familiarization

worksho s

Use, Practice, comparison

understanding of and

Basic

NFDRS2016 familiarization

User group

SupeJi User

June-Sept Oct- Dec Jan - March

2017 2017

Evaluate tools Evaluate Evaluate H>OP's system

d dun erstan Ing familiarization

April-Aug

2018 Sep-Dec Jan -Dec

2019

Tool - FfPlus and WIMS, System - NFDRS model

June - Sept (Completed):

NFDRS 2016 Rollout Plan of 6 December 13, 2017

Super Users: Evaluate tools

Develop an interagency group of super users (first round testers) comprised of the NWCG Fire Danger Subcommittee, Advanced NFORS (ANFDRS) faculty, $495 faculty and other interagency geographic representation to provide input back to the FS workgroup. This group will be the super user testing group evaluating both the tools and system.

Objectives:

• Evaluation of all functional aspects of FFPlus • Evaluation of Wx databases into FFPlus

Critical Needs: Develop consistent Wx database for all RAWS.

• Time line: This needs to be completed with enough time for Super Users to test prior to the National Level workshops. Tentative date: 1/1/2018

Outcome:

• Updated version of the NFORS tools (FFPlus and WIMS) complete with the new NFDRS 2016 model. The tools should be fully functiona l and usable to test the new system. However, there may still be some minor bugs.

• Determine critical needs in this stage to have a fully functional second level of testing with each GA.

October to December, 2017(nearly complete):

FDSC: October:

• Scope out this plan with NWCG Committees to include: o Geospatial committee o Data management committee o Fire planners o Fuels Committee o Geographic Area Training Representatives.

• Each agency Rep on the committee needs to scope this plan within agency leadership • FS Rep will work with State Reps on scoping with NASF fire committee.

November:

• Fina lize scoping comments into plan.

• Draft and finalize NWCG letter and agency letters on rollout plan by end of November. o letter will itemize dates for national workshop.

December:

• Finalize agency letters in association with NWCG letter.

• Begin outreaching with federal regions, BLM states and NASF to develop the geographic area (GA) leadership groups.

• Communicate NFDRS 2016 rollout plan with NWCG committees and subcommittees.


Super Users: Evaluate system

Super Users will meet at the first of October in Denver: Objectives for meeting include:

• Deep dive into the system with the super users • Synthesis of results from testing • Development of evaluation criteria for system • WIMS testing

Outcomes from the week's meeting include:

• A full understand and function of NFDRS 2016 with Super Users • A full list of needs which should be completed prior to rolling out to the GA leadership

groups.

• Development of the criteria and process for the GA SMEs to use to evaluate the system

Outcomes for this stage:

• Evaluation criteria to test the NFDRS 2016 system in: o WIMS - this needs to be tested as it moves from Sandbox to Test to Production o FFPlus o Fire Danger Operating Plans (FDOP) o Consistent wx dbase for NFDRS 2016 for FFPlus analysis

• Super Users are fully confident in the operations of the functions of FFPlus and WIMS

• Super Users are able to get the same results from WIMS/FFPlus • Super Users are able describe the NFDRS 2016 model and connectivity of inputs,

intermediate calculations and outputs

• Formalized letters from NWGC Executive Board and Agencies are sent out by 12/15/17. These letters will announce the plan and objectives.

Critical Needs:

• Development of Wx dbase • Continuous feedback loop and implementing changes needed in WIMS/FFPlus • Fully functional FFPlus and WIMS by Jan 1, 2018 • Completed NFDRS 2016 dbase for all RAWS stations by Jan 1, 2018 • Geospatial dbase for FDOP National workshop by 2/1/2018 and regional workshops by

10/1/2018 • Need to develop a detailed plan for development

IJanuary - March, 2018:

FDSC: January

• Fina lize logistics for National level workshop • DRAFT FDOP template to include all supporting templates. A final draft of these will be used for

the National workshop.

Super Users:

Evaluate FDOP


Super users will utilize FFPlus to analyze current thresholds in a chosen FDOPs with in their GA. This FDOP area should also be the same area to be used as the prototype area for the GA leadership group. The analysis should include:

• Did the fuel models which best "fit" decisions change

• Was there changes to the sensitivity of outputs which caused decisions to switch components/indices

• Did the range of values change enough to cause you to switch com pone nts/i nd ices

• Where there previous index/components/intermediate calculations not used in the 78/88 version, which can be considered for decisions

• How did the change in outputs effect matrix products for decisions in FDOPs.

• I.e., some FDOP's have matrixes for preparedness levels which include non NFDRS inputs such as LAL or fire activity. Did the new work NFDRS numbers cause any needed change in the matrix.

• Provide feedback for the FDOP process taught at the workshop to determine changes needed prior to the Regional GA workshops.

• Provide input to the FDOP template

Critical Needs:

• Continued need for Wx dbase

• Develop draft templates of a FDOP to include: • Preparedness • Adjective rating • Staffing • Dispatch • Restrictions • Prevention

• Final ize working version of FDOP AGOL on NIFC AGOL by 2/1.

• Develop a story map to illustrate how to walk through the FDOP process. Use this for the national rollout workshop and GA rollout workshops.

Outcome:

• Testing of the process and detailed procedure for updating FDOPs with NFDRS 2016 • Capture lessons learned to be applied for the GA leadership group workshop • Provide a clean FFPlus and Geospatial database for the GA leadership group workshop • Further evaluation of tools and system utilizing NFDRS 2016

GA Leadership group: January:

• GA leadership groups are established o Develop an interagency subject matter expert group by geographic area which will

evaluate the tools and system. This group will be comprised of S-491 cadre members, past graduates of Advanced NFDRS, regional leads for planning, fuels and operations.

o Names are provided to the WO.

• GA leadership groups are selected in January and a single point for each GA is identified. • A prototype FDOP areas for each GA are selected in January 2018. • Prototype areas are selected for each GA

• Localized data is identified and provided for inclusion to AGOL.


February:

• Attend national webinar to proceed on the learning pathway of basic understanding of NFDRS 2016

• Proceed with the "testing the tools" plan developed for super user group

April - August, 2018

Fire Danger Subcommittee

• The following should finalized by July/August:

o Location/dates of each GA workshop

o Final agenda, to include "pre-workshop" virtual material and weeklong meeting

o Cadre determined for each workshop.

GA Leadership Group

Objectives: • Test and evaluate the functionality of WIMS and FFPlus • Evaluate NFDRS 2016 in WIMS and FFPlus

• Develop a local FDOP prototype area to test the use, application and updates to FDOP. • It is recommended this sample area be a 3 rd tier dispatch boundary.

• Develop a regional rollout strategy, tiered to the national strategy, working with the Super Users, FDSC and agency leadership.

First week of May 1 • Conduct one national level workshop with GA representatives in May 2018

o A sample third tier dispatch FDOP will be chosen as a test area from each GA. o At least 2-4 GA representatives from this third-tier dispatch area and one or more

regional representatives should attend. o All sample FDOP's must be interagency and comply with the standards of the ANFDRS

curriculum. o Testing/comparisons/evaluation of all phases of NFDRS 2016 should be complete from

March to Sep for each GA's sample FDOP

Critical Needs:

• Finalize logistical needs, formal letters and outreach for GA workshops • Synthesize results of testing from the GA SME's during August/September. Use results to

finalize FFPlus and WIMS. Also, adopt and needed changes to the process of the FDOP application in teaching and implementing GA workshops.

• Utilize the GA leadership group as a faculty and coaching pool to use for GA FDOP workshop to a target goal of 6-8 per GA. Utilize the time frame to build capacity for each GAs current pool. The poo l of coaches for each GA to utilize should come from the attendees of the national workshop.


Outcomes:

• Localized testing of NFDRS 2016 in each GA

• Testing of the impacts of model changes to fire danger based applications.

General Users

Gain a basic understanding of NFDRS 2016

• Through a series of webinars begin teaching users about the new system. These videos would be created from the teaching of materials at the National workshop.

October 1, 2018 - May 1, 2019

General User group

This stage involves getting the general users familiar with the new NFDRS 2016 system. No formalized testing occurs in this phase. Any additional issues of the system or tools not found in the first two stages of testing will be handled.

1) The roll out to all field units will be comprised of weeklong GA FDOP NFDRS 2016 workshops. a) Testing results from the sample FDOP's will be synthesized and ready for presentation at

these workshops. b) Workshops will be conducted in the fall/winter of 2018-19. c) Workshops will follow the AN FORS GA FDOP workshop format. d) Each GA will host a workshop

e) The same traditional target audience for the GA FDOP workshops will attend this workshop.

Critical Needs: Develop a coaching pool of at least 6 - 8 coaches per GA by 10/1/2018 o Probability: low to moderate - There are approximately 18 coaches national wide

currently. Availability of those individuals varies. An idea is to use the national level workshop to develop additional coaches for each GA prior to the GA workshops.

o The FS will may need to support this effort with possible detailers


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