Markets

28 renewable energy focus September/October 2008

NEX reacts badly to global economy TIMES OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC GLOOM HAVE PROVED

TRICKY FOR THE PERCEIVED RISKIER STOCKS, AS THE

WILDERHILL NEW ENERGY GLOBAL INNOVATION INDEX NEX

DEMONSTRATED CLEARLY IN JUNE AND JULY...

During the months of June and July 2008 the NEX fell by 10.2%, a

steeper decline than either the S&P 500, which fell by around 8.8%, or

the Nasdaq, which fell by around 7.3%. The high price of oil fell slightly

during the period, from US$127 per barrel to US$124 for West Texas

Intermediate, which may have eased some of the pressure on buying

into new energy stocks.

Additionally the persisting global credit crunch and the possibility of

recession in the USA and Europe most likely contributed to a sell off of

clean energy shares, which are normally viewed as high risk invest-

ments.

All of the NEX sectors were hit, with not one sector recording a gain for

the period. Energy effi ciency, hydrogen and fuel cells, power storage,

solar and wind, all fell by between 9% and 15%, with only biomass and

biofuels recording a more modest fall of just 0.7%. Sixteen out of the 88

companies in the index rose – or stayed constant during the period –

while 72 fell.

The worst hit company was Roth & Rau, a German provider of PV-solar

manufacturing equipment, which fell a massive 81% between 1 June

and 31 July. While the company announced no bad news during either

June or July, it is likely that the German Government’s decision to

reduce its tariffs for solar power on 6 June had a negative effect.

Other German solar companies that suff ered heavy falls were Conergy,

Centrotherm PV and Q-Cells, falling 30.8%, 25.2% and 19.4% respectively.

The NEX’s second worst performer was Brasil Ecodiesel which fell 58.5%.

On 11 July the company announced it was looking into suing Petrobras

for failing to purchase its biodiesel which, according to Ecodiesel, it was

contractually obliged to do. Additionally, the company made a loss of

BRL 13m for the fi rst quarter of 2008.

Solaria Energia, the third worst performer, fell 51.2%. The company is still

in diffi culties after it was alleged that its strong results announced in

February contained accounting errors, a claim the company denied.

US based Medis Technologies, a fuel cell developer, fell by 45.1%, despite

raising US$29m of new money on 20 June. The company, which is listed

on the Nasdaq, raised the money as part of a larger US$35m shelf-off ering,

but plummeted on the news, falling 26.4% in one day, immediately

following the share issue.

However, some companies did manage to buck the trend and still

make gains despite the troubled market conditions. German Ersol

Solar, the star performer for the period, rocketed 63.4%. The company

announced strong results on 5 June showing EBIT for the year of

around �75m. And on 4 July German engineering company Bosch,

which had already been buying Ersol shares from the market, made an

offer of �101 per share to the company’s shareholders, boosting its

valuation further. Additionally, Ersol signed an agreement to supply

crystalline solar cells to IBC Solar, in a deal reportedly worth more than

half a billion Euros.

The next best performer was well behind with a gain of just under 29%.

Japanese battery manufacturer GS Yuasa rose on the back of news that

Japanese battery manufacturers would team up to standardise lithium-

ion batteries, a key Yuasa product. The move is aimed at speeding up the

commercialisation of the ultra-effi cient batteries which are used in hybrid

and electric cars.

Envitec, a German representative of the two months’ most resilient

clean energy sector, biomass and biofuels, gained an impressive 26%,

largely on the back of a �60m order for its modules from an unnamed

customer. According to New Energy Finance analysts, the order equates

to around 30MW of capacity. The order is the largest ever for Envitec.

US ethanol producer Aventine rose 21%, raising US$97m in a sale of

auction rate securities, however the company is still more than 80% below

its 2006 high of US$40 per share.

Finally, Brasilian ethanol producer Cosan rose around 20%, keeping

investors interested with a flurry of announcements concerning

possible acquisitions, aiming to take the company’s share in Brasil’s

fuel distribution network to 10%.

However, just after the close of the period the company announced

results showing a net loss of US$30.6m for FY2008, compared to a net

profit of US$228m in the previous year.

Tom Greenwood

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Markets

renewable energy focus September/October 2008 29

NEX Output: 31 May 2008 to 31 July 2008 (best and worst 20 performing companies)

No. Name Country Primary Sector Exchange Ticker Local Cur-rency

31 May 08 30 Jun 08 31 Jul 08 % Change

31 ErSol Solar Energy AG Germany Renewable - Solar XETRA ES6 EUR 61.85 101.2 101.05 63.4%

38 GS Yuasa Corp. Japan Power Storage Tokyo 6674 JPY 398 508 513 28.9%

29 EnviTec Biogas AG Germany Renewables - Biofuels & Biomass

XETRA ETG EUR 13.72 16 17.22 25.5%

5 Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc.

US Renewables - Biofuels & Biomass

NYSE AVR USD 5.62 4.4 6.8 21.0%

20 Cosan S/A Industria e Comercio

Brazil Renewables - Biofuels & Biomass

Sao Paulo CSAN3 BRL 25.6 27.7 30.79 20.3%

14 Centrotec Sustain-able AG

Germany Energy Effi ciency XETRA CEV EUR 12.82 13.66 14.44 12.6%

4 American Supercon-ductor Corp.

US Energy Effi ciency NASDAQ NMS AMSC USD 35.28 35.85 39.49 11.9%

26 Energy Conversion Devices Inc.

US Renewable - Solar NASDAQ NMS ENER USD 63.48 73.64 69.93 10.2%

28 EnerNOC Inc. US Energy Effi ciency NASDAQ NMS ENOC USD 14.85 17.95 16.14 8.7%

41 Hansen Transmission UK Renewable - Wind London HSN GBP 2.9 2.69 3.14 8.3%

67 Sao Martinho Brazil Renewables - Biofuels & Biomass

Sao Paulo SMTO3 BRL 24.5 25.9 26.5 8.2%

27 Energy Developments Ltd.

Australia Renewables - Biofuels & Biomass

ASX ENE AUD 2.57 2.58 2.75 7.0%

33 First Solar Inc. US Renewable - Solar NASDAQ NMS FSLR USD 267.54 272.82 285.11 6.6%

77 Takuma Co. Ltd. Japan Renewables - Biofuels & Biomass

Tokyo 6013 JPY 333 334 354 6.3%

51 Meidensha Corp. Japan Energy Effi ciency Tokyo 6508 JPY 328 319 330 0.6%

21 Covanta Holding US Renewables - Biofuels & Biomass

NYSE CVA USD 27.97 26.69 28.14 0.6%

62 Renewable Energy Corp. ASA

Norway Renewable - Solar Oslo REC NKK 151.5 132 151.5 0.0%

63 REpower Systems AG Germany Renewable - Wind XETRA RPW EUR 209 211.78 206.62 -1.1%

25 EDF Energies Nouv-elles S.A.

France Renewable - Wind EN Paris EEN EUR 45.6 42.47 45 -1.3%

49 Maxwell Technolo-gies Inc.

US Power Storage NASDAQ NMS MXWL USD 13.65 10.62 13.47 -1.3%

2 Acciona S.A. Spain Renewable - Wind Madrid ANA EUR 182.75 150.85 135.65 -25.8%

88 Zoltek Cos. US Renewable - Wind NASDAQ NMS ZOLT USD 30.23 24.25 22.32 -26.2%

1 Abengoa S.A. Spain Renewables - Biofuels & Biomass

Madrid ABG EUR 22.67 19.86 16.63 -26.6%

48 LDK Solar Co. Ltd. ADS China Renewable - Solar NYSE LDK USD 46.05 37.88 33.67 -26.9%

43 International Rectifi er Corp.

US Energy Effi ciency NYSE IRF USD 23.18 19.2 16.88 -27.2%

78 Theolia France Renewable - Wind EN Paris TEO EUR 23.15 16.79 16.8 -27.4%

53 Nordex AG Germany Renewable - Wind XETRA NDX1 EUR 29.24 26.46 21.17 -27.6%

46 Japan Wind Develop-ment Co. Ltd.

Japan Renewable - Wind Tokyo 2766 JPY 432000 374000 309000 -28.5%

24 Echelon Corp. US Energy Effi ciency NASDAQ NMS ELON USD 14.76 10.9 10.55 -28.5%

45 JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. ADS

China Renewable - Solar NASDAQ NMS JASO USD 21.27 16.85 15.17 -28.7%

59 Power-One Inc. US Energy Effi ciency NASDAQ NMS PWER USD 3.04 1.89 2.15 -29.3%

71 Solar Millennium AG Germany Renewable - Solar XETRA S2M EUR 32.48 27.15 22.6 -30.4%

18 Conergy AG Germany Renewable - Solar XETRA CGY EUR 12.76 13.22 8.83 -30.8%

85 Xingjiang Goldwind Science & Technology

China Renewable - Wind Shenzhen 2202 CNY 53.7 40.03 36.6 -31.8%

52 MEMC Electronic Materials Inc.

US Renewable - Solar NYSE WFR USD 68.66 61.54 46.21 -32.7%

11 BYD Co. Ltd. Hong Kong Power Storage Hong Kong 1211 HKD 12.34 10 7.95 -35.6%

50 Medis Technologies Ltd.

US Hydrogen & Fuel Cells NASDAQ NMS MDTL USD 6.19 3.37 3.4 -45.1%

72 Solaria Energia y Me-dio Ambiente S.A.

Spain Renewable - Solar Madrid SLR EUR 10.37 9.15 5.06 -51.2%

10 Brasil Ecodiesel Industria e Comercio de Bioc

Brazil Renewables - Biofuels & Biomass

Sao Paulo ECOD3 BRL 5.86 4.11 2.43 -58.5%

64 Roth & Rau AG Germany Renewable - Solar XETRA R8R EUR 158.55 138 30.3 -80.9%

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