su rn mary Newsletter

1998 volume 16 no. 1

The NEA Newsletter is published twice yearly in English and French by

the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. The opinions expressed in the Newsletter are those of the contributors alone and

do not necessarily reflect the views of the 0 rganisation or of its Member co un·

tries . Material in the Newsletter may

be freely used provided the source is acknowledged.

Ail co rrespondance' should be

addressed to:

The Editor NEA Newsletter OECD Nuclear Ener.11y Agency 12, boulevard des iles 92130 lssy·les·Moulineaux France

Tel: +33 (0)1 45 24 10 10 Fax: +33 (0)1 45 24 Il 10

The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established in 1958 as the

OEEC European Nuclear Energy Agency

and took its present designation in 1972, when its membership was extended to

non-European countries. lts purpose is to further international co-operation related

to the safety, environmental, economie,

legal and scientific aspects of nuclear energy. lt currently consists of 27 Member

countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium,

Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark,

Finland, France, Germany, Greece,

Hungary, lceland, freland, ltaly, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the

Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,

Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The European Commission takes part in the NEA's work and a co-operation

agreement is in force with the International

Atomic Energy Agency.

For more information about the NEA,

see:

http:/ /www.nea.fr

Facts and • op1n1ons

Can nuclear power stay competitive?

Future nuclear regulatory challenges

NEA update Beneficial uses of isotopes

The cast of low-level waste repositories

Societal aspects of decision making in complex radiological situations

Deep geologie disposal and lessons learnt

N EA in brief News briefs

Nuclear education

Nuclear powe r statistics

The impact of gas generation and migration

Geologie disposal of radioactive waste

New publications

Editorial board:

Jacques de la Ferté Cynthia Picot

Co-ordination: Solange Quarmeau

Annick Bruche!

Layout/ graphies: Annette Meunier

Photo researeh: Marie-France Phalip

Design: Paragramme

Caver photo: General view of the /kata power plant in Japon. Courtesy of Shikoku Electrie Power Co. /ne. , Japon.

editorial

lncreasing the younger generation's awareness of the prospects and challenges of nuclear energy into the next century should be a priority for the nuclear community.

Nuclear energy in a global market

Globalisation and increasing competition require that all economie sectors contimwusly improve their effi ciency. Nuclear energy is no exception.

The liberalisation of electricity markets and the privatisation of production is causing utilities ta seek ta maximise the performance of their nuclear units sa that they may remain competiti ve. Thi s issue of the Newsletter begi ns by asking whether nuclear powe 1~ in ge neral, can stay competitive, and presents an initial series of conclusions .

Nuclear power can only remain a viable option in the longe r tenn if, in addition ta being competitive, it continues ta be safe and is perceived ta be sa. One of the challenges is ta ensuiT that operators of nuclear power plants , in their effort s ta make the plants more competitive, do not compromise safety standards. This challenge is currently one of the principal concems of nuclear regulators. Readers will find more on this subjec t in the article entitled "Futu.re nuclear regulatory challenges". A furth er prerequisite ta nuclear power remaining viable is public confidence that there are satisfa ctory approaches available for dealing with long-lived radioactive waste. There have been important developments in this field that are discussed in the NEA "News briefs".

In the public s ec to1~ reduced govemment budge ts and the search f or cos t- eff ec tiveness point ta the need ta make the most of international co -operation in the nuclear energy fi eld . The Nuclear Energy Agency can play a key role in facilitating such co-operation, but must adjust ta a changing situation. In this context, the OECD Secretary-General appointed a High-Level Advisory Group ta look into the future role of the Agency. The Group 's report was f inalised at the beginning of the year and provided the basis for strategie discussions at the mee ting of the NEA Steering Committee held in the spring of 1998. A Strategie Plan will be developed for the Agency over the coming months, and readers wi ll be informed of the main lines of the Plan in the next issue of the N ewsletter.

Luis Echavarri Director-General

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E. Bertel, C. Randy Hudson*

Can nuclear power stay competitive?

Although decisions on technologies and energy

mixes for electricity generation have to take

into account a variety of non-economie issues,

including social, environmental and health

impacts, economie competitiveness remains

a key factor. However, the policy-making framework of the

electricity sector is evolving, and, as a consequence, new

challenges and opportunities are being

created for different generation technologies,

including nuclear.

D eregulation of the el ec ­tricity market and priva­tisati on of the sector are cha nging the criteria

upon which assessments of competi­ti veness are based. Private investors will tend to prefer technologies with low capital intensity that offer a rapid return on investments. Market dereg­ulation poses challenges fo r capital­intensive technologies, such as nuclear powe r, becau se the resul tin g open competition for supplying electricity will introduce a higher unce rtainty concerning the leve! of sales by each producer. ln orcier to reduce financial risks, producers wil l tend to seek more fl exible generatio n strategies tha t are based up on small po wer plants with relative ly low inves t­ment costs and short payback times. Nuclear power will be challenged to retain its comp eti tive posit ion in such a market, owing to the [act that it is a relatively co mplex techno logy that requires sophisti cated industrial and R&D infrastructures which might be di ffi cult for the pr ivate sector to support . On the other hand , the reduction of barriers to electricity exc hange via ex tend ed networks offers new market opportunities fo r large units that have stable long-term generati on costs, such as the current generation of nuclear power pl ants .

The increasing awareness of envi­ronmental issues and the recognition of broad macroeconomie and social effects arising from technology

* Dr Eve ly ne Bert el is a memb er of th e NEA Nuclear Developm ent Di vision.

Mr. C. Randy Hud son is Project Mana ger, Technology fnsights (Unit ed Stat es), Chai rma n of th e Exp ert Croup on Projec ted Cos ts of Cenerating El ec trici ty

choices are leading to new approaches and addit ional criteria in th e com­parative assessment of different gen­eration options in terms of their total cost to soc iety. Cost comparisons of generation technologies can be taken beyond the trad itional approach of calculating the direct economie costs to the utility by intern ali sing other costs to society (externalities) inso­far as feasible Two main issues have to be addressed in the implementa­tion of th is approach es tablishing economie values for ex ternali ties (for example , the costs of potential impac ts on human health or bio­diversity); and integrating those costs in the econo mie compariso n of options.

lnternalising externalities might enhance the co mp etitiveness of nuclear power versus coal and gas­fired power pl ants. Owing to the earl y recognition of liabili ties arising from the generation of nuclear electricity, the classic levelised cost assessment already takes into account most of the elements related to health and environmental impacts of nuclear power generation , from mini ng through electricity ge neration to decommissioning of the facilities, wast e management and di sposa i Also , the costs related to the applica­tion of safety standards and regula­tio ns are embedded in the in v est­ment , operat ion and mainte nance costs of nuclear power plants. On the other side, the liabilities arising from fossil fue l electric ity generat io n (for example , the potential costs of greenhouse gas emissions) are no t taken fully into account at present , and their inclusion would increase the costs of fossil fuel electricity gen­eration relative to nuclear generation.

Direct cost comparisons The direct costs of different candi­

date power plants are compared on the basis of their respective levelised ave rage generation costs. The level­ised cost approach provides trans­parency of the technical and eco­nomie assumptions underlying the resu lts and allows for sensitivity anal­yses showing the impact of different parameter variations on the relative co mpetitiveness of the altern ative technologies considered. All co m­pone nts of the costs fal ling on the utility, and that would therefore influence its cho ice of generation options, are taken into account. The direct cost comparisons include costs bo rn e by the utility for environ­menta l protec tion meas ures and standards, e g implementation of abatement technologies and emis­sion permits. However, costs thar are not borne by the utility, such as the soc ieta l cos ts (externalities) asso­ciated with health and environmental impacts of residual emissions, are not included. These are discussed in the section on "Beyond direct costs".

Levelised generation cost compar­isons of alternative options having different relative shares of inves t­ment , fuel and operation and main­tenance costs are highly sensitive to th e discount rates used. Therefore, recent OECD studies have calculated leve lised cos ts with two discou nt rates, 5 per cent and 10 percent per annum, which are considered rep­resentative of the range of va lues used by electricity producers in most cou nt ries .

The results of a series of OECD studies1 on projected costs of ge n­erating electricity, published every third year since 1983, illustrate the trends in costs and relative compe­titive ness of coal, gas and nuclear power plants. For those three options , projected generation costs have decreased continuously since 1986 owing to technological prog­ress and lower fuel priees.

The cost structure of alterna tive options for electricity generation has

• Can nuclea r power stay competitive?

a significant impact on their relative competitiveness. For nuclear power plants , capital investments account for some 60 per cent oflevelised gen­eration costs at 5 per cent discount rate and some 70 percent at 10 per ce nt discount rate. Although this highly capital -intensive cost structure makes nuclea r ge nerati on costs sensitive to discount rates, it results in a long-term stability of generation costs that ca n be attract ive at the national macroeconomie leve!. On the other hand , it implies long return times for invested ca pital, and this might not be compat ible with the short-term objectives and financing capabilities of private producers.

The growing co mpetiti veness of gas for base-load generation is a new trend resulting from techn ological progress as well as low gas priees. Modern , gas-fired, combined-cycle power plants have high efficienc y (50 percent or more) and low capital intensity, with in vestment costs representing only 20 per cent or less of levelised generation costs at 5 per cent discount rate, and around 30 per cent at 10 percent discount rate. This cost structure makes gas-fi red power plants attractive from the viewpoint of private inves tors seeking short investment payback times, but may raise conce rns about the sensitivity of generation costs to demand-driven increases in gas priees.

While prese ntly low fossi l fuel priees are challenging the co m­petitiveness of nuclear powe r and renewable sources, long-term energy policies have to take into account uncenainties on future fossil fuel priees. Whether coal and gas priees will remain low as demand grows is questionable. Therefore, th e assess­ment of economie co mpetitive ness in the power secto r should include sensitivity to different assumptions on fuel priee escalation.

In countries where co al, gas, and nuclear options are considered , the ratio between proj ected costs of nuclear and coal-generated electri city ranges from 0.6 to 1.3 at 5 percent discount rate and from 0.75 to 1. 35

at 10 per cent discount rate. The ratio betwee n costs of nu clear and gas­generated electri city ranges from 0.7 to 1.3 at 5 percent discount rate and from 0.95 to 1.7 at 10 percent dis­cou nt rate. Nuclear electricity is the chea pest in countries where large nu clea r power programmes have bee n impl emented. In cou ntries having access to low-cost fossil fuels , fossil-fired power plants are the cheapest options, with gas having an advantage over coal in many cases. ln most countries, the direct costs of generat ing electricity from coal­fired , gas-fired and nuclear power plants are suffi ciently close that their ranking is very sensiti ve to discount rate and fossil fuel priee assump­tions. Thi s general! y leads co untries and utiliti es to include in their systems a mix of different sources, tak in g into account econo mies , security of supply and other national or global objectives such as environ­mental protection.

Nuclear electricity cost components

Th e information provided for the studies on proJ ected generation costs includes three reactor types: pres­surisedlight water reactors (PWR), boiling li ght water reactors (BWR) and pressurised heavy water reactors (PHWR)

lnves tment cos ts The base co nst ruction costs of a

nuclear power plant (i e direc t and indirec t costs excluding interest and contingencies) reported by different co untries va ry between 1 000 and 2 500 US$/kWe, the average being around 1 500 US$/kWe. Currency exc han ge rates and the relative cost of labour, services and goods in different co untries are a major cause for th e differences in reponed investment costs. Other parameters having a maj or influence are the unit size and seri es effects. Significant cost reductions are obtained by building seve ra! plants at a site (savings in costs of common infrastructures and services) and by ordering a series of

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identical units (savings in R&D and design costs) Both multi -un it sites and series ordering can a Iso produce savings by amortising testing costs over a larger number of similar units and enhancing the productivity of qualifi ed manpower.

Constru cti on times for nu clear units (five to nine yea rs) are sli ghtl y longer than for coal-fired units (four to eight years) . Co mbined-cycle, gas-fired units are built more rapidly, ge nerally within three to six years. This has an impact on the total con­struction cost, especially when high interest/discount rates are applied. At 10 per cent interest/ discount rate, th e interes t during co nstru cti on represents sorne 30 per cent of the total constructi on cost of a nuclear unit. Advanced reactors with simpli­fi ed designs are ex pected to offer shorter construction times and , th erefore, lower constructi on costs.

Decommiss ioning cos ts Decommi ssioning cost estimates

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based up on tec hni cal experience gained through similar tasks already carried out for the decommissioning of resea rch reactors and for the replacement of major components of large power plants 2 Althou gh these cost estimates vary significantly according to national regulatory frameworks and policies regarding the timing of dismantling operations, they fall within a fairl y narrow range when expressed relative to the invest­ment cost, typical ly amounting to sorne 10 to 20 per cent of the total investment cost, when not discounted. When discounted at 10 per cent per annum, decommissioning costs repre­sent Jess than 2 per cent of the total investment cost and less than 1 per cent of total nu clear electricity generation costs.

Operation and maintenance cos ts

Operation and maintenance (O&M) costs representa relative ly small co mponent of the total gener­ation cost for nuclear power plants,

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although in sorne co untries th ey exceed fuel costs. The O&M costs are influenced by the tec hn ica l performance of the nuclear powe r plants and , moreove r, by the safety regulat ions and manp ower costs preva iling in different cou nt ries. Therefo re, the y vary significa nr ly from cou ntry to co untr y, both in abso lute va lue and share in ge ner­ation costs3 Recentl y, O&M costs have decreased significant ly in sev­era! countries , e.g. German y an d the United States, through learning fro m experi ence and enhan ced manage­ment. This trend may continue as expe rience accumul ates and as market competiti on pu rs pressure on utili ties to reduce costs th rough better management.

Nuclear fuel cycle cos ts ln light of the small share of fuel

cost in the total generating cos t, nuclear generation costs are relative ly insensitive to changes in ura nium and fu el cycle service pri ees. For light water reactors (PWR and BWR),

• Can nuclea r powe r stay competitive ?

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nuclear fuel costs represent typi cally sorne 20 pe r cent of the totallevel­ised genera ti on cost at 5 per cent discount rate , and less than 15 per cent at 10 percent discount rate. For heavy water reactors , the fuel cycle costs are even lower, representin g only sorne 5 per cent of total elec­trici ty generation costs.

Lifetim e, levelised, nuclea r fu el cycle costs have decreased by sorne 40 per ce nt since 1985 in NEA cou nt ries \ because of improved fuel performance and lower priees of uranium and sorne fu el cycle se rvices.

ln panicular, the downward trend in ura nium priees si nce the late seventi es has contribut ed signifi­cantl y to th e reduction of fuel cycle costs. Eve n if uranium priees were to rise, either by market mechanisms or by an increase in production costs, the effect on the to tal nuclear fu el cycle and electricity generation costs wou id be smalL For example, a dou­bling of the uranium pri ee woul d

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Technical improvements leading to efficiency gains have led to a reduc­tion in the priees of most nuclear fuel cycle services. For example, enrich­ment priees decreased by sorne 30 per cent between 1985 and 1990. This trend is expected to continue because of efficiency improve ments in the exis ting enrichm ent fa ciliti es and market forces as long as supply capabilities exceed demand.

Beyond direct costs As long as there remain so me

social costs and benefits that are not reflected fully in the direct costs of generation op tions , as desc rib ed above, th ere is a need to take into account other parameters and factors in the comparative assessment of alternative options. Costs and bene­fits to society that generally are not incorporated in direct costs of

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electricity generation include: macro­economie impacts, such as job cre­ation and pri ee stability; strategie fa ctors, such as security of supply and energy resource management ; and externalities that are not borne directl y by consumers but by society at large, such as health and environ­mental impacts of residual emissions. The increasing awareness of global impacts on the environment and the broad acceptance of the concept of susta inab ility are leading analysts and decision makers to aim towards inco rp orating these parameters either explicitly or implicitly in the co mpara ti ve assessment process. A number of intern ati onal studies ca rried out recently provide some insight into the broad economie impacts 5 and externalities 6 of differ­ent electri city generation sources.

Residual emissions and wastes from normal operation

For nu clea r power, radioactive emi ssions are subj ect to stand ards

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Can nuclea r po wer stay competitive? •

and limits set out by the Inter­national Commiss ion on Radio­logical Protec tion (ICRP) tha t are designed to ensure that humans, other species and the environment are not put at risk ? According to the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), exposure of workers and the public due to routine radio­active emissions from nuclear power activities amounts to Jess than 0 l per cent of the public's exposure to natu­ral background radiation arising from minerais, atmospheric radon and cosmic rays 8 At this leve!, there is no measurable external cast asso­ciated with these emissions.

The adoption of emission stan­dards and environmental protection regulations has led to the implemen­tation of cleaner technologies and/or abatement deviees re ducing the emissions of fossil-fuelled electricity generation systems. Therefore , these systems are not imposing significant external costs on society, with the exception of the risk of global di­mate chan ge as a result of green ­house gas emissio ns, in panicular

carbon dioxide. At present, the risks and consequences of climate change cannat be evaluated with a reason­able level of ce rtainty, owing to insu ffi cient scientific know ledge. There fore , the extern al costs of greenhouse gas emissions are diffi ­cult to assess, and the values assigned may vary widely from country to country depending upon policy choices and priorities of each govern­ment. This in tu rn makes i t difficult to es timate the degree to which internali sing global climate change risks might influence the competi­tiveness of nuclear power and renew­able energy sources as compa red to coal and gas-fired power plants

Wastes arising from electr icity genera tion are a concern mainly for coal-fired and nuclear power systems The costs associated with the man­agement and disposa! of these wastes are captured partly (totally in the case of radioactive waste) by the levelised cast estimations. However, in the case of coal-fired power plants, the volumes of wastes are very large and , although th ey contain hazard­ous heavy metals and radioacti ve

elements , these wastes are disposee! of at ground leve! and usually are not isolated from the biosphere. On the other hand , the radioactive wastes arising from nuclear electricity gener­ation are rather smal l in volume and can be disposed of in reposito ri es ensuring th e protection of hu man beings and the environment.

Abnorm al operation and accid en t risks

The potential risks of seve re accidents (i e accidents with signif­icant off-site risk to peop le and the environment) are recognised and , through accident insurance prem­iums, partly reflected in costs for all energy systems. However, da ta on th e frequency and the health and environmental damages of severe accidents in the power sector are no t collected systematically by any single national or international organi­sa tion . There are virtually no data on delayee! health effects from severe accidents arising in non-nu clea r electricity generation chains , and their long-tenn effec ts on the envi­ron men t are difficult to es tablish owing to their rare occurrence .

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Estimates based upo n ava il ab le data suggest that the hum an health risks from severe accidents in nuclear, oil and gas chains are of the same order of magnitude, and two orders of magnitude smaller than those from the hydro power option. However, any direct comparison in this regard shou ld be interpreted with great care given the lack of comprehensive, harmonised data­bases mentioned above 9

Although accident risks are partly incorporated in the direct costs of elec­tricity generation, through insurance premiums and wages that renect the risks to workers (e g. in coal mining) , residual external costs arising from low probability/high consequence accidents are difficult to assess. The summary report on the Externalities of Energy study6 states that "At this time there has been no general co n­sensus on a methodology to assess the externat costs of severe accidents".

Other environmental impacts Other environmental impacts ,

with the exception of land require­ments which are already captured by direct costs of electricity generat ion, are of a more qualitative na ture and difricult to express in terms of costs. Visual intrusion and reduction of biodiversity, for example, cannot be measured easily by nume ric indica­tors and their monetary valuation, which is essentially context depend­ent, remains highl y subj ect ive. In most cases, the value of these impacts is estimated by the will ing­ness to pay for avoiding or reducing them. As an example, lower priees of properties in areas exposed to noise or where the initial environ­ment has been (o r might be) degraded renect the economie impact!external cost of the activities creating such impacts. These impacts should be evaluated on an ad hoc basis for each specifie project , taking into account local conditions , since they cannot be fully assessed by generic method­ologies and frameworks. However, published stu dies and analyses canied out so far seem to indicate

• Can nuclear power stay competitive?

that their economie effect on the total cost of electricity generation is not significant.

Other externalities Broader impacts from technology

choices in th e power sector that entai! exte rna t costs or benefits include: secondary investment effects; stability of electricity costs and priees; balance-o f-payment equ ilibrium ; regional and national tec hnological, industrial and socio-cultural devel­lopment ; security of suppl y; and nat­mal resource management.

Most of these effects are inter­related and can be quanti fied only, if at ali, in a country-specifie context. Macroeconomi e models develo ped recently have significantly improved the capabili ties for dea ling with these various parameters in an integrated framework . However, there is no si ngle mode! that would allow all these aspects to be tackled and pro­vide an estimate of their integrated, overall economie impact within the time-frame implied by the long-term effects of choices and policies in the powe r sector.

With regard to nuclear power, the analysis carried out by the NEA 5

estimated that the non-environmental externalities fa ll within the range of uncertainty surroundi ng the stan­dard , projected , le ve lised cost of electricity generation and concluded that external costs or benefi ts will have no significant impact on the corn peti ti veness of nuclear power versus other alternati ves.

Concluding remarks ln most countries, proJected costs

for base-load electricity generation are fai rly close fo r coa l-fired , gas­fired and nuclear powe r plan ts. Renewable sources are general! y not considered for base-load elec tri city generation and, in most cases, would not be compet itive.

Choices of generation sources and technologies would therefore differ from country to country depending mainl y on the preva iling discount

rates, labour wage rates and on the expected priees of fossil fuels. In this context, poli cy issues , such as security of suppl y, and social and environmental concern s, such as public acceptance and the potential ri sks of global climate change, are likely to play an important rol e in the decision-making process for the elec tricity sector.

Nuclear power will stay competi­tive if the trend continues with regard to decreasing investment, O&M and fuel cycle costs. Also, its competitive margin ve rsus fo ssil­fue lled power pl ants co uld become more signilîcant if and when external costs, including those associated with greenhouse gas emissions, are more fully internalised. •

References 1. Int e rnati onal En ergy Agency, Nuclear

Energy Agency (reports publi shed eve ry thire/ year; Up da te 1997 ta be publi shed in 1998), Projec te d Costs of Gener­

atin g Elec tri c it y, OECD, Par·is.

2 . Nuclew· Enugy Agency (1991), Decom­

missioning of Nuc lear Fa c iliti es, OECD, Pa ri s.

3. Nuclec11· Encrgy Age ncy (1995), Methods o f Projec tin g Operations and

Maintenance Costs for Nu c lea r Power Plants , OECD, Paris.

4. Nuclea r En ergy Age ncy (1994),

Econo mi es of th e Nuclea r Fue l Cycle, OECD, Pari s.

5. N ucl ear En ugy Agency (1992) , Bro ad

Economie Imp ac t s of Nuc lea r Powe r, OECD, Pa ri s.

6. European Com mi ssion (1 995), Ext e rnaliti es of En e rgy, ECIDCXll , Brus se ls.

7. In ternational Commissio n 0 11 Racliological Protection (1 990), Recomm e ndati on s of the Internati onal Commi ss ion on Radio­

logical Protecti on, Publi cat io n 60, ICRP, Oxforc/!New York .

8. United Nation s Scie nt ific Committee on the Effecls of Atomic Radiati on (J 994),

l onising Radiation · So ur ces and Biolo g ica l Effects, UNSC EAR , New York.

9. Internati onal Atomic Energy Agency (1991), Senior Expert Sy mp os ium on

El ect ri c it y and the Environment: Key Iss u es Pap e r s, IAEA , STI/PUB/899, Vien na.

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J. Royen, C. WiLLby*

Future nuclear regulatory challenges

In December 1996, the NEA Committee on Nuclear Regulatory

Activities concluded that changes resulting from economie deregulation

and other recent developments affecting

nuclear power programmes have

consequences both for licensees and regulatory authorities. A number of

potential problems and issues which will present

a challenge to nuclear regulatory bodies over

the next ten years have been identified in a

report just released. 1

0 ne of the major challenges facing nuclear regulatory bodies in OECD countries over the coming decade

will arise from changes in the nuclear industry as countries liberalise their electricity markets and open them to com petitive global trading. This trend has already affected electricity supply industries by gene rating press ure to minimise the costs of production It is the responsibi lity of nuclear regulatory authoriti es to ensure that , as the economie environ­ment changes, nuclear safety is not compromised.

Other future challenges will stem from the continuing need to main tain and promote nuclear safety culture, maintain regulatory effectiveness , and , with pressure for greater open­ness , interface more effec tive! y with the public , media and parliaments

No major new challenges related to technolo gical changes or the future expansion of nuclear power were identifi ed. Ho wever, so rne issues may arise from the regional variation in the prospects for new nu clear installations (i e between th e newly industrialised countries, mainly in Asia , which are planning an expansion of their nuclear energy capacity, and the developed countries of Western Europe and North

* Dr jacques Roye n is Depu ty Head of the NEA Nuc/ea 1· Safe ty Di vis ion.

Mr. Chris Will by is HM Deputy Chief ln spec tor, Nuclea r In stalla tio ns, in the United Kin gdom , and Chai nna n of the NEA Committee on Nuclea1· Regula tory Ac li vities.

America, which are planning to build very few new nuclear power plants in the foreseeable fu ture) ln Eastern Europe, challenges will continue to stem from the upgrading of the safety leve! of Soviet-designed reactors.

A changing industry Around the world , trade barriers

are being reduced and countries are developing market-driven economies with open, competitive , global trad ­ing. One effect of this is tha t there is pressure in sorne countries to ease the burden imposed by governments and regulators on industry so tha t economie effi ciency, adaptability to change, competitiveness and inno­vation capabilities can be improved A growing number of governments have initiated programmes to reform regulato ry regimes , with a view to reducing or eliminating regulatory impediments, streamlining formali ­ties , and improving the quality and cast -effectiveness of regulations tha t remain. This trend is also seen in countries' electricity supply indus­tries . Governments are pursui ng policies of liberalisation of the energy sector as a whole and drawing back from direct in volvement in energy markets. In sorne countries mono­lithic, often state-owned , electricity companies are being broken up and separate generat ion, transmi ssion and retail companies created. ln sorne cases , this restructuring has resulted in the privatisation of profit­able nuclear power stations, with the sta te only retaining control of olde r,

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Jess econo mie orres. lt is likely that in the future the re will be further cha nges in the structure of the industry, for example, by take-overs between utiliti es which may result in fore ign ownership .

A result of liberalising electricity supply is that nuclear operators are having to co mpete with other less capital-intensive electrici ty gener­ators, and hence need to improve per­formance and reduce costs to elec­tricity consumers. ln particular, the availab ili ty of cheap natural gas over the next 20 to 30 yea rs in No rth America , and in European countries via pipelin es from Alge ria , No rway and Russia , is having an effect on the economies of the nuclea r indust ry

Comp li cated co mmercial co n­siderations could in future have signi fi cant impacts on how nuclear stations are operated (e.g. the effects of "pool pricing", base-load or load­following operation , or frequency correction) ln addition, so rne coun­tries are agreeing to open their mar­kets to foreign electricity generators

Proper maintenance is essential for the safety of a nuclea r power plant. Here: overhauls at the main reactor coolant pump at Beznau nuclear power plant, Switzerland.

• Future nuclear regulatory challenges

The resulting electr icity market can make the economies of nuclear power stations look relatively poor due to their high fi xecl costs, panic­ularly when the uncertainties relatecl to the liabilities for decommissioning and radioactive waste management and ever-increasing environmental concerns are put into the equation. ln the western wo rlcl , particularly in Europe and North America, it there­fo re looks unlikely that there will be many new nuclear power stations built in the foreseeable future. Conse­quently, every effort will be made to maximise the lives and output of existing nuclear stations.

The clevelopment of advanced nu clear po we r plant conce pts is unclerway A numb er of countries which rely on nuclear power, partic­ularly in eastern Asia, wi ll probab ly install these advanced systems in the next few yea rs. Regulatory author­ities willtherefore have to be pre ­pared to licence these plants when the time cornes. ln other countri es, they will be faced with th e certifi­ca tion of new aclvancecl des igns.

The Committee on Nuclear Regulatory Activities (CNRA) of the OECD Nuclea r Energy Agency (NEA) is an international co mmittee macle up of senior represe nt atives from nuclear regulatory bodies. lt was createcl in 1989 to guide the NEA's programme concerning the regu­lation , li censing and inspection of nuclear installations with regard to safety. It acts as a forum fo r the exchange of information and experience among regulatory organisations, and for the review of developments which could affect regulatory requirements.

Possible new regulatory challenges

The changes associated wi th the eco nomie cleregulation and restruc­turing of the elec tric utility inclustry have operat ional , eco nomie, and ownership aspects that are important to nuclear regul atory bodi es, and it is essential that those responsible for economie cleregulation recognise the safety implications of change. Safety auth orities have to ensure that, as the business environment changes, economie pressures do not erode nuclea r sa fety The nuclea r inclustry must recognise that there are no shortcuts to sa fely operated, eco­nomica lly viable nuclear power plants, and that nuclear elec tricity ge nerators must continue to main­tain hi gh safety standards, wi th suffi cient attention and resources clevoted to nuclear opera ti ons, and with decommissioning funding se cure.

Multiple commercial pressures and increased compet ition are causing many aspects of nuclear gene ration to be re-examinecl, for instance:

• Balancing the budget and giving priority to short -term interests are now the primary tasks.

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Future nuclea r regulatory challenges •

• Countri es thar in the past priced nucl ear-ge nerated electricity below th e production cost are moving towa rds profitable, or at least sustainable, pricing

• The search for savings is resulting in fewer safe ty upgrades being affordable, and relations between utili ties and regulatory au thorities may be more confrontati onal.

• Co-operation among utilities may diminish, as competition intensi­fies, though early indications are that this co uld be offse t by the fo rmation of co-operative agree­ments and alliances in sorne areas.

• (ost-cutting will result in staff reductions and resistance to imple­menting sa fety modifications, and perhaps also in the streamli ning of training programm es.

• There will be an increasing ten­dency to use contractors fo r sup­plying essential se rvices, including everyday maintenance and during outages; this could have an impact on safety as the qualificat ions of co ntracting companies are so me­times insuffi cie nt.

In the United Kingdom, the priva­tisation of the Central Electrici ty Generating Board has led to massive reductions of staff, many of whom were in research posts. Many of the transmission companies created in the process are now fo reign-owned; this situation has raised a number of new regu latory and legal issues. Elsewhere, international ownership of nuclear companies has led to the expatriation , at least temporarily, of many of the most competent and experienced staff members. Campa­nies are considering the financia l imp lications of reprocessing ra ther than using long- term storage for their spent nuclear fu el Di ffe rent fu el management programmes are being assessed including the use of mixed-oxide fuel. Provision of funds to cove r end-o f-life costs is being examined to see if there is scope to reduce the future financial burden of deco mmissio ning redu ndant plants. The availabili ty of final waste

repositories, and their timing, will figure strongly in the commercial decisions of companies.

Ali these develo pments will present new challenges to regulators at a time when in severa] Member countries the funding levels of national government programmes, both in nuclear regulation and in nuclear safety research programmes, co ntinue to be reduced. Care is needed to ensure that it will be possible for government agencies to fulfil effective ly th eir safety responsibilities in the new economie and regul atory environment, all the more so as so metimes the immediate interests of other parts of the govern­ment may not be in agreement with those of the nuclear safety authorities.

The availabi lity of higher edu­cation courses in nuclear engineering is declining in many countries with nuclea r industries. If this continues, where will future nuclear engineers receive their training in the subj ect7 How will the industry and regulators co ntinue to attt·act high-calibre, qualified rec ruits7

There are deregulation initiatives in sorne countries, as weil as sugges­tions thar th e nuclear industry should move towards self- regulation. As a result , there is more and more pressure on regulatory bodies to exa­mine how they wo rk with a view to reducing the burden on industry. The un avoidable disruptions which accompany regulatory reform have to be addressed by complementary po li cies and actions.

Other challenges are related to the need to maintain and promote nuclear safety culture, in particular at alllevels of utility personnel, and , given the pressure for grea ter openness, to interface more effectively with th e pu bli c, media and parlia­ments. In addition , co -operation between national safety authorities, and assistance to safety authorities in co untries where regula tory orga nisations need to be strength­ened , will beco me increasingly important.

The issues at hand The perceived challenges are

multiple, ranging from technical iss ues to socio-economic and political issues; organisat ional , managem·ent and human aspects ; and international issues.

Technica l issues that may present significant new regu latory challenges in the future re late to various aspects of the ageing of nuclear plants: physica l ageing of components and structures , ageing of analytical techniques and docu­ment ation, ageing of rules and standards, and ageing of technology. The potential consequences of an increase in opera tional fl exibili ty, safety margins during more exacting operating modes, and backfitting and safety upgrad ing programmes for plants that were designed to lower safety standards are also important issues to consider. Technical issues related to the back end of the cycle include decommissioning, as well as management , storage and disposa i of radioactive waste and spent fuel.

With respect to socio-economic and politi ca l iss ues , the external changes to the industry that will have an effect on regulators include privatisation of national companies, mergers between utilities, and othe r issues arising from the deregulation of the energy and electricity markets and competition Sta ff reductions and subcontracting issues thar result from the operators' desire to mini­mise the cost of production can also have an important impact Ot her issues rela ted to the commercial ­isation of the industry concern research , managerial changes , and safety culture.

Internai changes that are affecting regulators , notably organisational , managerial and human-resource issues , thar present significant future challenges include regulatory effect­iveness; licensee responsibili ty; staff training and preserving a cri tica l mass of knowledge; regulato ry changes; and the interface betwee n regulatory authorities and the public.

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The foremost conce rn regarding international issues is related to nuclear sa fety. Co-operation among safety authorities would be beneficia! in severa! areas , in part icular in producing common techni cal stan­dards and guides, reaching consensus on technical issues , ensuring ade­quate human resources in regulatory agencies , and communica ting with the public. Co-opera tion with , and assistance to, safety authorities in countries where regulato ry organi­sations need to be strengthened is an activity which should be developed. At the same time , co -operation betwee n national sa fety authorities will become increasingly important and necessary.

The NEA Committee on Nuclear Regulatory Activities (CNRA) iden­tified the following major challenges as potentially affecting the majority of nuclear regulators:

• Future nuclear regulatory challeng es

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A control-room simulator at the Kori Nuclear Training Centre, Japan .

• ageing - parti cularly of an alytical techniques and documentation, and th e definition of the analyses needed to support pl ant !i fe extensions and the demonstration tha t the plant will still operate within its design basis;

• sa fety margins during more exacting operating modes - this will require in-depth analyses to evaluate possible sa fety impacts;

• safe ty culture - this will require further work to define good prac­tice and how it can be evaluated;

• regulatory effecti veness - how this can be enhanced, in particular at a time when regulatory bodies are changing their stru cture and methods of regulating;

• licensee responsibility - licensees have primary res ponsibility for safety regardless of competitive pressu re on them; and

• sta ff tra ining and preserving a cri t ical mass of knowledge -regulators need well- edu ca ted, well-trained and well -motivated sta ff.

Finally, the CNRA recognised that the manage ment , storage and dis­posai of high-level radi oactive waste and spent nuclear fu el and , more general! y, fuel cycle closure, are pre­requisites to the general acce ptance of the continued and future use of nuclear power. •

Reference

1. Nuclea r Energy Agency (1998), Future N u c lea r Reg u lat o r y C h a ll e n ges: A Repo rt by th e NEA Co mmitt ee o n Nu c lea r Regu latory Ac t ivi ti es, OECD, Pa ris .

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E. Bertel, H. Umezawa*

Beneficial uses of isotopes

R adioactive and stable iso­topes are used through­out the world and in many secto rs, including

medicine, industry, agri culture and research. In many applications iso­topes have no substitute and in most others they are more effec ti ve and cheaper than alternative techniques or processes.

While around 50 countries have significant iso tope production or separation capaciti es , and many others have smaller capaciti es , a comprehensive survey and analysis of the trends in iso tope producti on and use , and of the iso tope suppl y/ demand balance , has never been made. Therefo re, in 1996 a stud y was initiated by the NEA Nuclear Development Division , in co ­operati on with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with th e obj ec tive of collec ting and co mpiling informati on on iso tope production and uses; analysing the status and trends in the sector; and identifying key issues of relevance for gove rnments with regard to ensuring security of iso tope supply for beneficia! uses .

The startin g point of the study was an inquiry carried out through a questionnaire sent to sorne 80 coun­tries produ cing and/o r using iso ­topes The inquiry was supplemented by a review of data publi shed in sorne countries on isotope produc­ti on and uses, and by a survey of literature on nuclear industries . Results from this preliminary work allowed the selection of 50 countries which were found to have significant iso tope produ ction capacity. The

second part of the study focused on completing and analysing quantita­tive information on isotope produc­tion capacities in those countries and analysing trends in the secto r, including plans for the shutdown of existing fac ilities and/o r the con­struction of new orres .

Informati on on isotope applica­tions was co mpiled through liter­ature surveys and contacts with users and regulatory bodies in charge of issuing licenses to iso tope users. The integration of thi s information with production capacity data served as a basis for characterising the isoto pe market status, trends, opportu n­ities and supp ly/demand balance worldwide.

The data and analyses resulting fro m the study, as presented below, are thought to be representative of the world situation , but are by no means exhaustive. NEA work in thi s fi eld is continuing in order to complement the information already collected and to enhance the analysis of trends in the sector.

Isotope applications Medical applications are among

the best-known, and represent the largest volume of beneficia! uses of iso topes . ln industry, isoto pes are used for many applica tions in di f­ferent sectors. Those applica tions includ e: control sys tems in mining industries and for security and pol­lu tion controls; medical supply and food sterilisation by irradiation and radiation processing; plastic curing by irradiation ; and the use of radio­active tracers for process control and optimisa tion. ln scientific research,

iso topes are used mainly in the fields of biology and in research on materials.

Medical applications Isotopes are used in medicine

primarily for nuclear imaging with gamma and positron emission tomography cameras, radiotherapy with sealed so urces and radio ­immun oassay Other applicati ons include irradiation of blood for transfu sion and endovascu lar radiotherapy

Nuclear imaging is based mainl y upon the use of gamma cameras and positron emission tomography (PET) cameras to detect radiati on from isotopes administered to patients. The use of isotopes for measuring bo rr e densit y, which is done in a number of radiological centres, is gradually being replaced by X-ray techniques; the existing equipment continues to be used, however, and is no t likely to be replaced shortly

Ga mma camera imaging of a number of organs, e g lung, thyroid , kidneys and brain, is used for diag­nosis. A total of sorne 20 000 gamma cameras are in service in so rne 5 000 nuclear medicine departments of hospitals. The number of gamma cameras is growing at a rate of a round 5 per cent per year and new applica­tions are being developed. The main iso topes used for gamma imaging are technetium-99m (60 per cent of the market), thallium-2 01 (20 per cent of the market) and to a lesser extent

* Dr. Evely ne Bertel is a memb er of the NEA Nuclear Development Div ision.

Dr. Hirohazu Umezawa is Director, Division of Radioisotopes , japan Radiois otope Association, Chair man of the Ad Hoc Expert Group of Beneficia/ Isotopes (lapan).

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iodine-123 , xenon-133 , indium-lll and gallium-67. Also, americium-241 , cobalt-57 , caesium-137 , barium-133 and ga dolinium -153 are used fo r calibration.

PET cameras are used increasingly for diagnosis, in particular of brain and heart diseases. At present , sorne 300 cameras are in service in around 200 PET ce ntres worl dwid e, and these numbers are growing at a rate of around 15 per cent per yea r. About two-thirds of the PET centres are producing on site the required isotopes, main ly fluo rine-lB (90 per cent of the market) and to a lesser extent carbon-ll , nitrogen-13 and oxygen- 15. For cali bration of PET ca meras, the same isotopes are used as fo r gamma cameras , plus gallium-68.

Radio immunoassay is used in medicallaboratories for in vitro tests for diagnostic purposes. Isotopes are used for marking tumours or hor­mones, and the analysis of blood or body fluid s taken fro m pa tie nt s allows the detection of diseases. The main iso tope tracers used are iodine-125 and to a lesser exte nt tri tium, cobalt-57 and iron-59.

Calibration of activity metres used in nuclea r medicine.

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Radiotherapy methods include metabolic radiotherapy, remotely controlled cobalt therapy and brachy­therapy Metabolic radiotherapy, used mainly for trea ting hyperthyroidism and cancers, is an expanding market. Cobalt therapy is practised in sorne l 800 centres and, at present , around lOO new cobalt therapy units are in sta lled each year. However, cobalt th erapy is expected to be replaced progressively by more selective tech­niques There are sorne 5 000 brachy­therapy units, which also are used for ca nce r treatment , and thi s number is expanding at a rate of a round l 0 per cent per yea r. The isotopes used for brachytherapy are mainly iridium-192 , caesium-13 7, iodine-125 and gold-198.

Industrial application s Prac tically all industrial sectors

use isotopes for many purposes including process control and opti­misation; measuremen t and auto­mation; quality control ; and testing In most app lications, isotopes could not be replaced readily by alternative techniques and are , at present , the chea pest option available. Globall y, the market for industrial uses of isotopes is stable in most sectors but

sorne applications, such as on­tine analysis in th e mining industries , are expanding.

The use of isotopes in appli­cations related to the environ­ment is increasing. iso topes play an important role in measuring carb on dioxide emissions and inves ti ga ting greenhouse gases in terms of their pathways and thei r ass imilation by plants. Other atmospheric emissions, such as sulphur and nitrogen oxides, can be monitored by on-stream analyse rs using isotopes. Radioactive trace rs can be used fo r measuring pollution of water reservoirs and contami­nation of soils, by pesticides or oi l pipeline leakage fo r example. Gamma-emitting isotopes are used in the treatment of toxic wastes.

• Beneficial uses of isotopes

ln the field of sec urity, califor­nium-2 52 sources are widely used in airports and railway stations for checking luggage to detect explo­sives and drugs. Smoke detecto rs using americium-241 are installed in many types of buildings. Lumi­nous paint with tritium is used to indicate emergency exits.

Iso topes are necessary in the nuclear energy field for power plant start -up , process control and cali­bration of instrumentation. For non­destructive tests , cobalt-60 and iridium-192 sources are widely used.

Applications in agricu ltu re and food in du stries

ln agriculture, iso topes provide effi cient means to improve quality and productivity Radiation-induced mutations have led to new plant spe­cies thar are more resistant to diseases and/or better adapted to loca l condi­tions , thereby increasing crop yields and improving the quality of food products. Isotopes are used to moni­tor and optimise intakes of fertilisers and pesticides by plants. The sterile insect technique, based upon sterili­sation of insects by gamma radiation, has been successfully applied for eradicating crop-damaging species, such as the Mediterranean fruit fl y, without side impacts on human health or th e env ironment. ln live­stock production, isotopes are corn­monty used for moni to rin g and improving the health of catt le.

Irradiation is an efficient means for foo d preservation and has been introduced in a number of countries including Belgium, j apan, the Neth­erlands, Russia and South Africa

Scien tific applications lsotope-labelled nucleic acids and

proteins are used in biomedical research to study plants, animais and humans. The isotopes invo lved are mainl y phosphorus-32 and 33 , iodine- 125 , sulphur-35 (for nucleic acids), carb on-14 and tritium (for amino acids) lsotope-labelled atoms play an important role in geneti c research. Isotope markers are used to trace water streams, and tritium

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Beneficial uses of isotopes •

Measuring the wea r of an automobile motor by thin-layer activation.

measurements are used in geology. lsotope-labelled molecules are widely used in chemistry, where they allow more sensitive analysis than by alter­native techniques. Mossbauer spectro­scopy, clone with va rious isotopes such as cobalt-5 7 and caesium- 137, is used in materials research. Also, sodium-22 is used as a pos itron source for materi al sciences.

Isotope production Isotopes are produced mainl y in

research reac tors and ded icated accelerators; however, production facili ti es include isotopie separation units , other types of accelerators and a few nuclear power plants. World­wide , th ere are nearly 300 isotope production fac iliti es and so rne 50 countries have significant iso tope production capacities. A large share of th e produ ction fac ili ties are located in OECD countries . Outside the OECD, the main isotope pro­ducing co untries are Chin a, lndia, Russia and South Africa

Reac tors Among th e 300 research reacto rs

in operation in the world , around 75 are used for isotope produ cti on during 5 per cent or more of their operating time. Those include six high fl ux reactors proclucing mainl y

cobalt-60 and californium-252 and two fast neutron reactors, operatecl in Russia, producing strontium-89. The main iso topes procluced by research reactors, other than high flu x and fas t neutron reactors, are molyb­denum-99, cobalt- 60, iridium-1 92, iodine-125 and iodine-131. ln sorne countries, including France, Russia and the United States, research reac­tors procluce tritium for civilian uses. Only a few nuclear power plants are usee! for isotope production For example, cobalt-60 is produced in nuclear power plants in Argentina , Canada, Hungary and Russia.

lso tope-producing research reac­tors are in operation in all regions of th e wo rld. Arouncl one-quarter of those reactors are located in Asia and the Middle East; each of three other regions (Western Europe, Eas tern Europe and the Former Soviet Union, and North America) operate 20 per cent or more of the isotope­producing research reactors; only sorne 10 per cent are operated in the rest of the worlcl.

Trends cliffer from region to region. ln As ia, new research reactors are being built or are pl anned, and iso tope production capabili ty is ex pectecl to increase rapidly in the region. ln Europe and North America,

on the other hand, existing reac tors are ageing and , often , there is no plan to replace them with new units once they are shut clown. However, Canada has an on -going project to build two declicated reactors for sup­plying molybdenum-99.

Isotope separation fac il ities Isotope se paration facil ities in­

elude plants, works hops and hot cells where iso topes are extrac ted from fission products and radioactive waste. Five inclustrial-size faci lities, operated in Belgium , Canada , lnd onesia, the Ne therlands and South Aft· ica , and severa! smal ler workshops operatecl in Argenlina, Australia, Norway and Russia, are extracting molybcl en um -99 from fi ssion procluc ts, whose daughter procluct techne tium-99m has many applications in medicine. Other facil­it ies, including hot cell s, are pro­ducing caesium-13 7 and krypton-85 extracted from radioactive waste. Most of those facili ties are opera tee! in lndia , Russia and the United States. Sorne ten hot cells, using more sophisticated processes for separating transuranium elements and alp ha emitters from radioactive waste , are in operation in France , Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

Plants for the separation of heavy isotopes, e.g. transuranium elements and alpha emitters, require rather complex technology and the volume of outputs is fairly low in compar­ison with the stocks treated. Sorne ten plants are operated fo r this purpose in the world .

Accelera tors

Worldwide , around 180 accel er­ators are used for isotope pro­duction. Most of these accelerators are dedicated entirely to isotope production. However, about a dozen general purpose (hon-cleclicatecl ) accelerators are part ly use e! to procluce isotopes. Those inclucle four high energy accelerators , operating at energy levels ranging from 180 to 800 MeV, that mainly procluce copper and selenium isotopes.

Nearly 50 cyclotrons dedicated to the production of radiopha rma­ceuti cals are in service, and two to three new machines are installed each yea r. About 50 percent of these are operated by private compani es and sorne 40 per cent are located in No rth America. The main iso ­topes produced by those cyclotrons are tha\\ium-201 and to a lesse r extent cobalt-57 , ga\\ium-67 , and indium-111 and iod ine-123.

There are sorne 125 cyclotrons ded­ica ted to positron emission tomog­aphy in operation at present , and so rne 25 new mac hines are being bui lt annually More than 90 percent of the PET cyclotrons are operated in North America , Western Europe and Asia (mainly j apan). The main isotopes produced by PET cyclotrons are carbon-11, lluorine-18, nitrogen-13 and oxygen-15.

Isotope supplyfdemand balance

On the supply side , most regions and countries in the world have sorn e isotope production facil ities but sorne isotopes, requiring specifie equipment , are produced in only a few countries. Short li fetime iso­topes, such as those used for PET cameras , have to be produced and used on the same site. The trend in production capacities varies from region to region. At present , most of the isotope production fac ilities are operated in OECD countries ; how­ever, these countries are not planning to replace all of their ageing plants. In contrast, sorne new isotope pro­duction fac ilities are being built in developing countries.

A large number of isotope produc­tion facilities are state -owned and operated. Public entities own most of the research reactors and cyclo­trons dedicated to PET and one­quarter of the cyclotrons dedicated to radiopharmaceuticals Although the private sec tor is inc reasingly in­volved in isotope production, espe­cially in OECD countries, the viability

of the sector in a totally open market might be questi onable.

On the demand side, isotopes are used in practically all countries of the world , but the trends vary from isotope to isotope and from sector to sector. Globally, the market for beneficia\ uses of iso topes is expanding as isotopes remain non­substi tutable in many traditional applications an d as new applications are being deve loped. In the medical field , the use of isotopes is growing steadily, in particular for metabolic radiotherapy, brachytherapy and PET imaging In other fields , the demand is genera lly sta ble but is growing significantly in sorne specifie sectors such as on-line analys is of mining products , security and environ­mental pollution monitoring.

Conclusion Owi ng to the wide range of

isotope applications and to the geographie distribution of produc­tion and uses , it is difficult to assess the overall economie impact of the sector at the world leve\. Howeve r, the survey carried out by the NEA shows that production and bene fi cia\ uses of isotopes represent a signifi­cant volume of activities in a large number of co untries where the y genera te revenues and jobs.

Most of the app lications of iso ­topes have been developed because substitutes were not readily available and/or were more expensive and Jess efficient Technological progress in the field of isotope production and uses , as well as in other areas , leads on the one hand to the development of new applications, and on the other hand to the development of cast­effect ive substitutes. The evolution of demand creates a challenge for the isotope production sector, which has limited fl exibility owing to the lead times (three to eight years) for build­ing production facilities .

The isotope production sec tor, like many others, is affec ted by the global trend of market liberalisation

• Beneficial uses of isotope s

and the privatisation of in dustries . Since, in the past, a large number of isotope production facilitie s have been built and operated by government-owned entiti es , the transition to a compet itive market raises sorne new issues and may lead to concerns about security of supply Privately owned isotope production fa cilities, operating on a full cost recovery basis , would be likely to charge higher priees and therefo re might not be competitive with alterna tive technologies , when th ey are available. In sorne sec tors , such as medicine , where isotopes gener­ally have no substitute , priees based upon full cost recovery might require an adaptation of the health care support systems to cover the higher costs.

Go vern mental bodies play an important role in the field of isotope producti on and uses. Governments are responsible for es tablishing health and environmental norms and standards a pp lied to isotope produc­tion and use , licensing isotope users and making sure that th ey comply with regulations in place. Govern­mental agencies own and operate a significant sha re of production faci liti es , although private investors are progress ively increas ing thei r participat ion in the sector.

International exchanges are neces­sary today for ensuring isotope supply, as practically no coun try is se lf-sufficient . The liberalisation of the prod uction secto r, as we il as th e evol uti on of de mand , call for enhanced internati onal co-operation aimed at optimising produ ction capabilities at the regional and global level and ensur ing an ade qu ate supply of isotopes, in part icu lar for use where there is no subst itute.

International organisa tions , like the NEA , offer a fo rum for world­wide exchanges of information and experience In this way, they may assist in enh ancing the efficiency of inves tments in iso tope production fac ili ties as well as the security of supp ly of iso topes for beneficiai uses. •

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H. Morimoto*

The cast of low-level waste repositories

T he Committee for Technical and Economie Studies on Nuclear Energy Deve lop­ment and the Fuel Cycle

(NDC) has been conducting a study on the cost oflow-level waste reposi­tories since 1996. Although the fin al report has not yet been published , the main fi ndings of the study are reviewed below

As regards the economies of radio­active waste management , the NDC has already produced studies on the economies of decommissioning nuclear power plants (199 1), and of high-level radioact ive waste disposa] (1993) This new study on low-level radioactive waste repositories will therefore complete the review of the economi es of all categories of radio­active was te management.

ln sorn e NEA Member countries low-level was te (LLW) repositories have already been in ope ration for a considerable peri od; other countries are planning to open LLW reposi­tories in the near future. The types, sizes and geo logica l conditions of the repositori es may vary co nsider­ably Although the cost of LLW dis­posa! is thought to be a fai rl y small part of the tota l cost of nu clear power generation , the absolute costs of investment in, and operation of, repositories , together with those of possible long-term monitoring after closure, are by no means small. This analysis of the cost elements ­R&D , civil constructi on, operat ion,

closure - shows effective ways of both managing LLW repositories and of reducing the costs themselves.

The scope of the study The study aims at providing basic

cost information on LLW repositories in NEA Member countries, and analysing those factors which affect the cost elemen ts. lt also provides insights into ways and means of attaining more efficient and more cas t-effective management of such repositories

The scope of the analysis in eludes LLW repositories in operation or planned in NEA Member countries . The prim ary focus of the study is nea r-surface repositories, such as the Centre de l'A ube in France or the Drigg repository in the Un ited Kingdom , and cavern-based reposi­tories , such as the SFR repository in Sweden. Intermediate-l eve l waste (lLW) is also included in the study because LLW and ILW are often disposed of at the same repositories Geological repositories dedicated to high-level was te (HLW) are not considered.

Overview of the LLW repositories in Member countries

Management practices for the disposa] of LLW and ILW (adopted or under consid eration) include three main options:

• near-surface disposai ;

• disposai in caverns at inter­mediate depth ;

• disposai in deep geologie formations.

The choice of a particular disposa! system, consistent with international sa fety objectives for the disposa! of radioactive was te, depends on the waste type (physical form and radio­active content) and also on lo ca l conditions, including considerations of socio-political acceptance. Increas­ingly, reliance is placed on the adoption of a multi-barrier approach where the waste form , engineered ba rriers and finall y the site itself all contribute to the isolation of th e waste from the environment for timescales consistent with its decay to insignifi cant levels

Cost elements Cost elements considered in the

study are planning and licensing, design and construction, operations, decommissioning and closure, and post -closure activities. Costs that are typically incurred outside the reposi­to ries , such as waste treatment , con­ditioning , packaging, and interim sto rage have not been included , although economie incentives related to reposi tory siting are mentioned where relevant.

* Mr. Hideo Morimoto is a member of the NEA Nuc/ea r Development Division.

Factors affecting the LLW disposal cost

The aim of the report is not to find out which repository has the lowest or highest costs, but rather to analyse factors affecting them. Direct compar­ison wi thout regard to the context must not be made because , fi rst , simple exchange rate conversion does no t make costs directly comparable, in panicular in re lati on to eastern European countries and those coun­tries which had historical anomalies of exchange rates at the time of comparison, such as japan. Second, different technical and non-technical features of the repositories sorne times make the comparison impossible.

Repositories meet a wide range of requ irements in terms of waste definition and mixture of waste. Sorne repositories only accept low­level waste whereas others accept intermediate -level waste as weil , although definitions of was te cate­gories can differ. The origin of LLW varies from medical usage to nuclear power activities, including power generation , decommissio ning and fu el reprocessing. These variations give Jess uniformity of waste com­pared to high-level radioactive waste. These factors , though not all analysed in detail in the report , affect the compa rability of repositories among countries.

The study carefully examines the above -mentioned cost elements and the following findings are observed

• Planning and li censing costs could sometimes represent a signi ficant portion of the whole cost of the repository. The German and Swiss cases showed fairly large costs fo r planning and licensing procedures This may be attributed to socio­political factors in those countries, but this cannot be quantified The upward trend of the costs implies further increases in the planning costs of fut ure reposito ries.

• An economies-of-scale effec t has been found , in particular in the construction costs of near-sur fa ce

• The cost of low-level waste repositories

repositories. Unit cons tru ction cost, i. e. total construction costs divided by the capacity volume of the repository, has been fo und to be lower for repositories with larger capacities . One of th e explanations is that sorne of the facilities and infrastructure of a repository are unavoidable, representing fi xed costs that are independent of the repository' s size.

• The construction costs of nea r­surface repositories are Jess than those of ca ve rn-type repositories. This is generally observed , and also specifically in the two planned repositories in Hungary However, a simp le comparison betwee n near-surface , vault-type repositor­ies and cavern-type repositories should not be made as they have different cos t structures: for example, post -closure monitoring is often not required fo r cavern­type repositories

• The costs of repositories which are adj acent to the facilities which produce waste , such as nuclear power plants in the Swedish and Finnish cases, are lower than others due to cost sharing. However, site selection was not necessarily based on economi e reasons, but on public acceptance considerations.

• Opera ting costs are not as affected by size as are construction costs. One of the main reasons is that certain parts of the operating costs are fi xe d, i.e. not proportional to the volume of annual delivery of waste , such as administration ,

Low-level radioactive waste repository at the Dukovany nuclear power plant, Czech Republic.

security and radioactivity monitoring.

• Since repositories in Member conn­tries have not ye t experi enced a complete closure process, the cost of closing could not be trended comprehensive ly in the stud y. Sorne repositories have given their estimated cost of closure. France effective ly closed the Manche repository three years ago, but even in this case detailed analysis has not been possible.

• Total LLW repository costs rep­resenta small fraction of total elec­tricity generation costs. The costs in the report are not discounted costs; di scounting would reduce their impact. Howeve r, even this higher estimated value was found to be a very small fraction of the total cost of electricity generation. Total cost, which is undiscounted and aggregated by simple summa­tion , was in the range of 0.02-0.17 US mils per kilowatt-hour. Finally, there are additional cost

components that were not consid­ered in this study but are neverthe­less significant in the overall cost of low-level radioactive waste manage­ment , for example sorting, treatment, conditioning and transport These components were not studied in the report as the waste repository, which is the main focus of the report , does not ge nera ll y undenake these activities. An overall cost study for was te management , whi ch could incorporate high-level waste and decommissioning waste, would be of value as a follow-up to this study. •

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COUNTRY DISPOSAL fACIUTY DISPOSAL METHOD 1 CAPA CITY 1 ST DISPOSAL ÜWNERSHIP/ÜPERATOR

Proposed national repository Near-surface

1

Not decided Not decided To be decided

IWDF Near-surface; Jess than 40 rn deep No limit yet specified 1992 Department of Environmental Protection of Western Australia

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Not decided Near-surface; Vault 1 60 000 m3 to lOO 000 m3 2004 ONDRAF/NIRAS

(planned)

IRUS (prototype) Near-surface; Vault T 2 000 m3 1999 AECL, a national R&D organisation

0 1 [lmhlitldiillli1'9 Dukovany Near-surface; Vault; 5 rn above ground 30 000 m3 to 35 000 m3 1994 CEZ, a utility owned main! y by the state 2

Richard Underground; Disused mine; Vault; 52 rn deep 10 500m3 (design) 1964 ARAO, a private company with sorne state participation.

Bratrstvi Underground; Vault; 50 rn deep 290m3 1974 Following the Atomic Act of 1997, these two repositories will become the property of the state and will be run by the Radio-active Waste Repository Authority no later than February 2000.

Olkiluoto Underground; Silo; 70 to llO rn deep 8 432m3 1992 TVO, a private utility

Loviisa Underground; Cavern; 120 rn deep 5 400m3 1997 IVO, a state-owned utility

-Manche Near-surface; Tumuli and vaults 530 000 m3 1969, closed in '94 ANDRA, French National Radioactive

Aube Near-surface; Vault 1 000 000 m3 1994 Waste Management Agency

...... --- - -

ERAM (Morsleben) Underground; Disused salt mine; Cavern; 500 rn deep 54 000 m3 1978 BfS, Federal Office for Radiation Protection; DBE , the German

Konrad Underground; Disused iron mine; Cavern; 1 000 to 1 300 rn deep 650 000 m3 2001 Company for Construction and Operation of Waste Repositories , carries out construction and operation under contract with BfS.

Püspôkszilagy Near-surface; Vault; 6 rn deep 5 000 m3 1977 Municipal Institute of the State Public Health and Medical Officer

Udvari (New) Near-surface; Vault; 5 rn deep 40 000 m3 Planned Services, the state-owned company. The Radioactive Waste Management Agency, an independent organisation, is to be

Üveghuta (New) Underground; Cavern; lOO to 150 rn deep 40 000 m3 Planned established by the government by 1 july 1998. ,. -

Under siting To be defined To be defined To be defined To be defined

--Rokkasho No. 1 Near-surface; Vault; 14 to 19 rn deep 40 000 m3 1992 Japan Nuclear Fuel Ltd., a private company

Rokkasho No. 2 Near-surface; Vault; 16 to 21 rn deep 40 000 m3 Under licensing mainly owned by utilities

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E. Lazo*

Societal aspects of decision making in complex radiological situations

The Co llec tive Opin ion , Radiation Protection Today and Tomo rrow 1, adopted by the Committee on Radi­

ati on Protec tion and Public Health ( CRPPH) in 1994, noted that society is showing increasing concern about dec isio ns affect ing !ife and we ll­being, and interest in being involved in the decision-making process. This tendency is panicularly evident in matters dealing with the protection of human health and the environ­ment. The Co llect ive Opinion also noted thar "decision making in sev­era! areas of radiation protection can less and less be made in iso lati on from its social di mensions".

Concerns of this sort are refl ected in many aspects of modern li fe, no t only those relating to radia tion pro­tection decisions. However, in orcier to better understand how radi ati on protec ti on can more effectively contribute to society, the CRPPH laun ched a preliminary study, aim­ing to reach relat ive ly co ncrete conclusions, and foc using on the "rea l- wo rl d" prob lems of dealing with chronic exposure to radiation resulting from a major accident or from past prac tices. The following observations were made and reported to the CRPPH in Aprill 997

• Fo r a maJOr decision to be equi­table and acce pted, appropriate

mechanisms must be found to involve affected members of the public in the decision-mak ing process, starting from its early stages. A foremost conce rn or requ irement of the public is to have sorne degree of control over decisions whic h ca n affect their lives.

• ln a radiological event , risk can include radiation consequences , post-event trauma and economie impac ts. All of these must be included in an ethical analys is, made transparent and managed in terms of uncen ainty, consent and co mpensation in a process leading to solution development.

• A "return to normality", i.e. the return to conditions as they existed prior to the situation leading to chronic exposure, may not be possible. ln such instances, the foc us should be on improving li ving conditi ons and the quality of li fe, the purpose being to allow affec ted populati ons to establi sh living conditions and restrictions which are acceptable to them.

• The resolution process can be divided into three broad stages: a) analysis of the problem, b) development of a programme to imp rove living co nditions th ro ugh decisions nego tiated

by all parties concerned and , c) independent monitoring of the programme's implementation and results.

• The basis fo r diffe rences between public dose limits as applied for "practices" 2 and the various refer­ence and action levels associated with "inte rvention"3 are difficu lt to exp lain and to justify, especially to members of the pub lic. This raises the question of whether the present system of radiological pro tection needs fun her refine ­ment , panicularly with respect to how dose/risk criteria and related policies should be developed and appli ed at the national and local levels.

• Generally, the role of the radio­logica l pro tection expert is to defin e risk and its consequences , as weil as the impact of di ffere nt op tions to mit igate the conse ­quences of situations invo lving chronic exposure. As such, the expe rt can be an advisor , an d sometimes and educator, to both the public and the au thorities in the decision -making process. Howeve r, the role of the expert too often becomes confused with the function of governme ntal

* Dr. E. Lazo is Deputy Head of the NEA Radiati on Protection and Radioactive Waste Management Division.

• Societal aspects of decision making in complex radiological situations

au thority Guidance on the role of the radiation protection specialist , as an expert in the decision­making process, should be further developed.

• ln a complex, democratie society, responsibihty for achieving ethical and equitable decision making is typically vested in a governmental authority The ro le of such an authority is complex, involving orchestrating a process whereby va rious experts and the public are engaged in the assessment of prob­lems , the formulation of options and the selection of an option for implementation In the end , the au thority must find a solution , often the result of nego tiat ion , which is accepted as the best fit for the circumstances . lt would be beneficiai to illustrate and elaborate on the complex nature of the role of the governmental authority in situations involving intervention and chronic exposure which resu lt from accidents or past practices.

• The media undoubtedly influence public concerns and reactions to radiation risk. It would be useful to provide sorne insight into how the media influence publi c atti­tudes as well as the degree of thar influence.

• A review of a number of case studies dealing with chronic exp os ures re su 1 tin g from a cci­dents and pas t prac tices should provide insights into what works well and what does not in different kinds of settings and situations.

Based on these observations, work in this area continued in the form of a workshop , hosted by the Swiss Nuclea r Sa fety Authority, the HSK, in Janu ary 1998. The decision­making process was first illustrated using case studies. These included the return of populations, which had been evacuated to avoid exposure to fallout from above-ground nuclear tes ting, to the Marshall Islands; measures taken in Belarus to reduce

exposure of populati ons li ving in contaminated areas; th e rehabili­tation of land in German y contami­nated by past uranium mining opera­tions; and the sociological aspects of the media' s influence Further dis­cussions focused on the roles of the various participants in the decision­making process, such as the expert , the public and the decision maker.

It was genera lly agreed thar th e decision-making process should take place within a framework , but th e framework should not di ctate the decision. More specificall y, two general conclusions emerged from these deliberations and were sup ­ported by th e various papers

• International radiation protection recommendations for practices wo rk we ll , and rep resent an app roac h to public and worker safety which has bee n accepted by experts, decision makers and the public. This is not the case for recommendations concerning post -accident intervention, which, as disc ussed in the wo rkshop's case studi es, have unanimously been rejec ted by these decision makers and implicated members of the public. It is noteworthy thar in all the case studies presented, the responsible decision makers and affected members of the public agreed up on residual radiation exposures not exceeding l mSv

The dymanics of decision making

Organisations (Recommen­

dations)

Non­affected public

(help and confusion)

authorities (Laws and

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above natura l bac kground. Although participants at the workshop agreed that the focus should not be placed on numer­ical values , it was observed that a connection was made, by decision makers and th e pub lic, between public dose limits and the concept of "co nsistem" leve ls of what is "safe". There is thus a need to revisit the radiat ion protec tion framework in genera l, but par­ticularly as it penains LO deci­sions concerning imervention and chronic exposure situations. The overall radiation protection frame­work appea rs to Jack coherence , particularly when the approach to practices is viewed against the approach to chronic and inter­ve ntion situations.

• The decision-makin g process must be open and transparent,

Developing public confidence in radiation protection measures. Here: checking for radioactivity in a Ukrainian village house.

and must include a wide variety of participants so that resulting decisions will be acceptable. There is a cl ear need for ea rl y public involvement in the decision­makin g process through sorne kind of organi sed system. This requi res a bette r understanding of the contextual roles of all par­ticipants in the process, including those of the affected members of the public, ex pert advisors and governmental authorities.

Many quest ions were raised at the workshop whic h merit further deliberation , and some of these will be trea ted in fonh co ming studies under the aegis of the CRPPH. The perception that the radiation protection framework is "coherent" or not, parti cularl y in the minds of decision makers and members of the public, should also be examined. For

radiation protection experts, th e fo ll owing question remains is th e issue one of integratin g societal aspects into radiation protec ti on decisions, or of integrating radiation protection into society's decisions? •

References

OECDINEA (1994), Radiation Pr o tec t io n To d ay and Tomorrow, Pa r is. Availab le f ree on r·c qucsl.

2. The In ternationa l Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), dc{incs a "practice", in Publicat ion 60, as an activily which increascs radiation dose reccived by wo r·kers and/or the ptrblic. An examplc of a practice is the opcratron of nuclear power plants.

3. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), dcfincs an "interve ntio n", in Publication 60, as an activily which reduccs radiation dose received by workers and/or the pub lic. An example of an intervention wo uld be the evacuation of populations fro m a reas affectee/ by a nue/ca r· acc ident.

C. Pescatore, T. Vieno, J. Andersson*

Deep geologie disposal Lessons learnt from recent performance assessment studies

P erformance assessment (PA) studies are part of the deci ­sion basis fo r the sit ing, operation , and closure of

dee p repositories of long-lived nuclear wastes . ln 1995 the NEA set up the Working Group on lntegrated Performance Assessments of Deep Repositories (lPAG) with the goals to analyse existing PA studies , learn about what has been produced to date, and shed light on what could be clone in future studies .

Te n nati onal organisations repre­senting sa fety authorities, research bod ies, and R&D agencies partici­pa ted in the first phase of !PAG. All orga nisa tions submitted their most recent PA study for analysis and discussion, including written answers to ove r 70 questions The mix of waste ma nage ment programmes , disposa! conce pts, geologies , and different types and amounts of waste offered a unique opportun ity for exc hanging information , assessing progress in PA since 1990, and iden­tifying recent trends. A report was completed 1 who se main !essons are as follows

* Dr. Claudio Pescatore is Acting Head of the NEA Radiation Protection and Radioactive Waste Management Division.

D1·. T Vieno is a senior research scientis t at VTT Ene rgy, Finland, and was the Chai rm an of the fi rst phase of /PAG.

D1·. j. Andersson is a consultant who worked with the NEA Secretariat on this projecl

8 No new insurmountable prob lems have been encountered in the app lica tion of PA since the NENIAENCEC "Collective Opinion" 2

of 1991 stated that the available PA methods are adequate to evaluate the long-term impacts of a dee p geolog­ical repository There still are pros­pects , however, fo r specifie improve­ments (for examp le, in developing traceability and transparency, inter­action between site characte risa tion and PA, and the trea tment of varia­bility and uncerta int y), and for the development of a better under­standing of PA methods and their appli cation .

8 Traceability means that an unamb iguous and complete record of the decisions, assumptions, mod­els , and data used in producing a given set of results is ava ilable. Traceability is an important element of confidence building and quality assurance , and it is always achiev­able , albeit at high cost.

Transparency means that the PA is clearly do cu mented so that the reader can gain a good under­standing of what was done, what the results are , and why the results are as they are. This is a more subtle, and audience-dependent , require­ment. The IPAG has se t out nin e points of guidance on promoting transparency

8 All assessme nts have limita­tions in scope, e.g. the intended use of the PA, regulatory requirements, and available resources. Limitations in technical scope, for example a par­tial selection of scenarios, may lead

to a bias in the results of the analysis. All li mitat ions in the sco pe of PA studi es should be acknowledged, their impact discussed, and appropriate caveats should be placed on results and conclusions.

0 The content of a safety assess­ment report is influenced by external factors related ta its specifie purpose in the disposa! programme, and by practical constraims, e.g. the methods adopted and the resources and ti me allowed for documentation. A uni­versa! plan of contents cannat there­fore be recommended. Examination of th e submitted PAs sugges ted, however, tha t there are common elements in most of them The lPAG recomme nds a se t of 18 elements that a PA report should address.

8 The geosphere is a key compo­nem of the disposa! system as it both protects and prese rves the waste and the engineered barriers, and comrib­utes ta retarding and dispersing con­taminant releases. One key item for PA is the extent to which site characterisation can support analyses to demonstra te th at th e requi red functions of the geosphere wi ll be realised. The IPAG identified critica l phenomena and uncertainties asso­ciated with geosphere functions and discussed the potent ial for resolving these uncertainties for three host rock types: crystall ine rock, unsatu­rated tuf[ and salt formations.

General issues identi fi ed are: • the potemial un cenaimies/errors

introduced by the use of idealised models of rock heterogeneity, e.g. stream-tube models;

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Deep geologie disposal: Lessons learnt from recent performance assessment studies •

Predictions of individual dose from deep repositories of long-lived radioactive waste are typically well below natural radiation exposures and regulatory guidelines.

Releases before 10 000 years are normally insignificant.

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• the long- term stability and pre­dictability of th e di sposa i system (PA shoulcl emphas ise the specifie sa fety requirements placecl on the geosp here and engineered co m­ponents , and the scienti fic basis for the assumptions made)

G The calculations used to show the effects of un certainti es in PA res ults are determini sti c and/o r probabilistic Both calculations have advantages and di sadvantages. The choice depends on national regu­latory guidance, the leve! of data ava ilab le and th e requirements for co mmunication purposes. No t all uncertainties can be measurecl , how­eve r, and it is important that those which cannot are acld ressed in PA.

8 Stylised presentations may be used in PA to illustrate the impact of situat ions for which ex perim ental evidence will be lacking, for example future human ac tions and future biosphere cond itions. ln such cases, the scenarios, models and/o r para­meler values are subj ective ly chosen. lt is th e regulato r who decides th e acce ptability of stylisecl prese nta­ti ons, and approp riate interact ions

Sample release curves from severa/ PA studies

1 000 10 000 100 000 1 000 000

Years after repository closure

between the proponent and the regu­lator have to be foreseen. The views of wider tec hnical audiences, and also of th e public, may be valuable. International co-operation is desir­abl e to develop stylised presenta ­tions for va rious situations that are appropriate in a wide range of national contexts.

0 Substantial progress has been macle recently in developing formal procedures to iclentify and document fea tures, events and processes (FEPs) These meth ocl s impro ve PAs by improving th e comprehen­siveness of considerations made , by providing a forma lism for discussing the long li st of potentially relevant issues , and by providing docu­mentat ion of th e assumptions and decisions th at lead to a choice of sce narios , models and calculation cases. Recent deve lopments in the area of FEPs ana lys is make this an opportune time to revisit the topic of scenario formulation.

0 The PAs ana lysecl provide few exa mp les of the direct use of data from natural analogues. Rather, natu­ra l analogues are seen as confidence-

building studi es that support the understanding of key processes and provide evidence that no other pro­cesses or phenomena with a sig­nificant long-term effect have been overl ooked.

4B Seve ral differences in termi­nology were noted during the exam­ination of the PAs and rela ted discussions, e.g. the use of the words "scenario" and "mode!'' . The lPAG do es not propose that a co mmon vocabulary should be es tablished, but recommends that terms that have a special mea ning within a project should be defined and used consis­tently throughout the PA documents.

A new lPAG phase is underwa y, focusing in particular on the analysis of expe ri ence gained durin g peer revin,vs, and especia lly regu latory reviews, of PA studies. •

References 1. OE CDIN EA (1997), t esso n s Lea rnt

fr o m Te n Pe rfo rman ce Assess m en t Studi es, Pa r is .

2 . OECD /NEA (1991 ) , D is p osa i of Ra di oac ti ve W as te· Ca n Long-Te r m Safe ty Be Eva luar ed <, Paris.

News briefs A new survey and analysis of nuclear education

T he Co mmittee for Technical and Economie Studi es on Nuclear Energy Development and the Fuel Cycle

(NDC) has recently undertaken a new survey and analysis of nuclear education. This new study is carried out as part of the NDC's work programme on nuclear infrastructure , which has already generated a number of publications , including Trends in Nuclear Research Institutes. Nuclear infrastructure, which has been defined as essential activities surrounding and supporting core nuclear fuel cycle and power generation activities, includes research and development, educa tion of qualified personnel, regulatory activities and the like. ln view of falling demand fo r new nuclear units , nuclear infrastructure may be affected, including the supply of qualified engineers.

A first meeting was organised in March to launch the stud y. lt was at tended by experts from a variety of organisations , including universities , research institutes and industry. Participants generally expressed their

concern about reduced opportunities for education in the nu clear fi eld and the unce rtain future of the nuclear­related job market. A question raised du ring the meeting that merits further examination is to what extent university education should be provided in nuclear engineering when many industrial organisations are prepared to

provide in-house training in nuclear matters to a wide va riety of civil , mecha nical, elec trica l and chemica l engineers lt was agreed that the nuclear sector definitely needed qualified personnel for maintaining and decommissioning existing nuclear facilities , even if nuclear power programmes were to be downsized.

After co llecting and analys ing the country data on educational programmes, as well as experience in Member cou nt ries, the final report will be published in 1999 . •

Ma king use of the in-house training option on a multipurpose engineering simulator (Framatome, France).

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Nuclear power in NEA countries Situation as of 31 December 1997

At the end of 1997 , th e total capacity provided by the 358 reactors now installed was 300.9 gigawatts (GWe) Another 10 reactors totalling 9.4 GWe were under construction and six reacto rs tota lling 6.7 GWe were firml y

committed. The total capacity of nuclear power plants in NEA countries in the year 2000 and 2010 is projected to be about 303.2 and 325.9 GWe, respec tive ly. The 3.9 GWe of capacity thar is expected to be ret ired by the year 2000 is already deducted from these projections

Nuclear electricity capacity in NEA countries

5.7* 37.5 5.7 36.3 5.7 32.0 15.5 * 13.9 16.0 13.6 15 .0 12.6

1.6 10. 7 3.4 19.9 3 4 19 .1 2.4 15.5 2. 6 15.4 2. 6 15.3

France 62. 9* 54.9 63.1 55.9 62.9 538 62 .9 52.9 German 211 20.8 211 20.5 210 20.0 210** 19.8 Hunga 1 8 24 .5 1 8 230 18 219 2.4 26.8 Ja_pan*** 43.6* 20 .4 43.7 18.6 55.2 ** 21. 5 67.2 24.1 Korea 10.3* 24.8 13.7 26.0 18.7 27.5 26.3 331 Mexico lJ 38 1.4 3.6 l4 JO l4 23 Netherlands 0.5 2.4 0.5 23 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spain 7.3 * 15.1 7.3 15.3 7.3 15.1 7.3 15 .0 Sweden 10.1 30.0 9.5 27.3 8.9 29.2 8.9 29.2 Switzerland Jl 19.4 3 2 20 .0 3 2 18.8 32 18.1 Turkey 00 0.0 0.0 0.0 lJ 2.8 2.6 4.0 United Kingdom 127 17.3 12.1 ** 14.9 9.3** 10.9 7.0** 8.2 United States 1010* 12.6 99.0 l U 95 .0 10.5 89.0 9.3

NEA Total 300.9 16.0 15.2 313.7 14.6 14.3

Status of nuclear power plants

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Units Net GWe Units NetGWe

7 5.7 2l 15.5 4 1 6 2 1 8 4 24

59 62.9 1.4 19 211 4 1 8 0.6

54 436 l 0.8 4.7 17 18.4 12 10.3 6 5.4 2.0 8 9.2 2 lJ l 0. 5

Spain 9 7.3 Sweden 12 10 .1 Switzerland 5 J l TurkeY. lü 6.5 United Kingdom 35 127 United States l lO lOLO

NEA Total · 358 300.9 9.4 6.7 36 34.7

Provis io nal data. * * * Gross capacity data conve n edto net by th e NEA Secretariat. Estimate establi shed by the NEA Sec reta riat.

Underground radioactive waste repositories: A new project to assess the impact of gas generation and migration

T he interaction of geologie fl uids with radioactive waste and enginee red materials placed in und erground

repositories may lead to th e generation of large amounts of gases that may need to escape through the enginee red barriers and the geosphere. The potent ial impact of gas generation, accumulat ion and migration on the perfor­mance of repositories will be dependent upon the waste types, the repository concepts, the host geologie environ­ments and the scenarios for the long-term evolution of the system lt is accepted that this potentia l impact should be addressed and assessed in connection with the devel­opment of safety cases for deep repositories.

For a repository located in the saturated zone a number of potential processes may be in volved, for example, the acceleration of groundwater fl ow, the opening of pathways th at cou ld subsequ ently contribute to water-borne contaminant transport , the provision of a carrier gas that could fac ilitate the transport of gaseous or volatile radio­nucl ides and the formation of microbubbles that could ca rry particula te matter. A fu rther range of effects might be involved for a repository sited in an unsaturated zone. The presence of gas may also provide a fa vourable contri­bu tion to the performance of the system by, for example, red ucing the influx of corrosive fluids and maintaining adequate geochemical conditions.

Significa nt effort co nti nues to be devoted , thro ugh numerous national and international programmes , to the unders tanding of the potential impact of gas migration, and of other two -phase gas-water processes , on the per­formance of underground radioactive waste repositor ies, and to the provision of modell ing tools or approaches thar will allow these impacts to be assessed. Among these efforts are varions proj ec ts co-ordinated by the European Co mmissio n. These and others have resulted in a wide range of documents and reports.

Against this background, a new Project "Status Report on Gas Migration and Iwo-Phase Flow through Engineered and Geological Barriers for a Deep Repository for Radio­active Waste", was started on 1 January 1998 to take stock of the experience developed so far and to establish the current status of the basic understand ing that exists of gas migration and two-phase gas-water fl ow processes and their potential impacts on the performance of engineered and geological barriers. Most of the concepts and geologie media currentl y being co nsidered fo r the

deep di sposa i of radi oactive waste will be addressed, and co rnm on issues that affect ail repository systems will be id entified.

Th e projec t, which has been set up un der the joint ausp ices of the European Co mmission and the Nuclear

View of the HA DES Underground Research Laboratory, Belgium, where in situ experiments of gas migration

are being carried out in the Boom clay formation .

Energy Agency, will ensure proper cove rage of all R&D work already carried out within national and international programmes. lt is financed by the European Commission, in the framework of its R&D programme on Nuclea r Fission Safety, and by ten national waste management organisations represented within the NEA Site Evaluation and Design of Experim ents Co -ordin atin g Group fo r Radioactive Waste Disposa! (SEDE). The final report , that is being drafted by a group of experts, should be available by the end of 1999 . •

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First licensed facility in the world for the geologie disposal of long-lived radioactive waste

T he Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WlPP) near Ca rlsbad , in south-eastern New Mexico, can begin di sposai

operations for long- li ved low and intermediate-l evel radioactive waste from defense-related acti vi ties in the United States (transuranic was te). This follows the issuance , in May 1998, of a cert ificat ion of co mpliance with th e applicable nuclea r safety regulations by the US Environmental Protection Age ney (EPA) The New Mexico Environment Department has also issued a draft permit dealing with the chemotoxic aspec ts of the waste. The repository is located at a depth of 650 metres below the surface within a 600-metre thick , bedded-salt formation.

The WIPP is the first licensed facility in the world for the deep geologie disposai of long-hved nuclear waste. lts licensing - the culmination of 24 years of research and developmen t including extensive reviews- shows that deep disposai safety based on a system of passive barriers is an attainable goal and , in particular, provides

confirmati on that a decision-making process ca n be implemented leading to the licensing of deep disposai fa cilities for long-lived nuclear waste. It is therefore an event of histo rical importance in the nuclear waste field.

The developer of the WlPP site - the US Department of Energy (USDOE) - has long been associated with NEA activities and is represented in the NEA Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) Important parts of the analyses submitted to the EPAin support of the license application were underpinned by databases developed at the NEA. Recentl y, the NEA also provided- with the Internationa l Ato mic Energy Agency - an independem interna tional appraisal of the long-term performance analyses carried out by the USDOE. This international peer review has helped the USDOE strengthen its analyses and identify research and developm ent needs in preparation of the periodic re-evaluation of the safety of the facility by the regulatory au thorities •

Findings on a Canadian deep geologie disposal concept

ACanadian En vironmenta l Assessment and Review Panel studying the long-term management of nuclear

fuel waste, and the safety and acceptability of the concept proposed by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) for burying the waste deep within the rock of the Canadian Shie ld, has recommended a step-by-step management approach

Over its eight- year mandate, the panel ca refully examined the criteri a acco rding to which the safety an d acceptability of any concept for long-tenn radioactive waste management and disposai could be developed in Canada. lt reached two main co nclusions

• The safety of the AECL co nce pt has been adequately demonstrated from a techni ca l perspective.

• The AECL concept has not been demonstrated to have broad publi c support , and does not have the required leve! of accep tab ility to be adopted as Canada's approach for managing nuclea r fu el wastes.

ln reaching its conclusions on the technical acce ptability of the AECL geo logie disposai concept, the panel made significant use of an international peer review ca rried out by the NEA in 1995 , which had comm ented

positively on th e overall quality of th e scient ifi c and engineering work underpinning the environmental impact sta tement relating to the concept.

The panel report is rich in insights into the technical and non-techni cal acceptabili ty of a deep disposai concept. For instance , it compares risks from nuclea r and non-nuclear waste and observes that: "In their present quantities , non-nuclear wastes may pose an even greater risk to human hea lth and the environment than nuclear wastes do ", although "It is not possible to say with certainty which are, overall , more threatening".

The panel recommends the creation of a nuclear fuel waste management agency to assume responsibility for managing and co-ordinating the full range of activities required to deal with nuclear fuel wast es in the long term. lt a Iso expects that the new agency could reach a decision on a widely acceptable conce pt within three years. Thereafter, facility siting cou ld commence.

The next step in the process is for the fed eral gov­ernment to respond to the recommendations in the panel's report . •

New publications

Nuclear Energy Data - 1998

ISBN 92-64-05762-5

Pr iee F f 120 US$ 20

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N uclear Energy Data is the OECD Nuclea r Energy Agency's annual compilation of basic statistics on electricity

gene ration and nuclea r power in OECD countries. This reference bo ok pro vides quick and easy access to the status of and projected trends in total electricity generating capacity, nuclear generating capacity, and actual electricity production, as well as to supply and demand for nuclear fuel cycle services.

Uranium 1997-Resources, Production and Demand

ISBN 92-64-16050-7

Priee: f f 4 70 US$ 79

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The events characterising the world uranium market in the last severa[ years illustrate the persistent uncertainty faced by

uranium producers and consumers worldwide. With world nuclear capacity expanding and uranium production satisfying only about 60 percent of demand, uranium stockpiles continue to be depleted at a high rate. The uncertainty related to the

NEA Annual Report 1997

Free on requ es t.

Also avail Ci bl e on Intern et: http://www.nea.fr

remaining levels of world uranium stockpiles and to the a mount of surplus defence material that will be entering the market makes it difficult to determine wh en a clos er balance between uranium supply and demand will be reached. Information in this report provides insights into changes expected in uranium supply and demand until well into the next century.

The "Red Book", jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is the foremost reference on uranium. This world report is based on official information from 59 countries and includes compilations of statistics on resources, exploration , production and demand as of 1 January 1997. It provides substantial new information from all of the major uranium producing centres in Africa, Australia, Eastern Europe, North America and the New Independent States, including the first-ever official reports on uranium production in Estonia , Mongolia, the Russian Federation and Uzbekistan. It also contains an international expert analysis of i ndustry statistics and worldwide projections of nuclear energy growth , uranium requirements and uranium supply.

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JEF-PC 2.0 - A Personal Computer Program for Displaying Nuclear Data from the Joint Evaluated Library

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113-page manua l

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N uclear Legislation Analytica l Study Regulatory and Institutional Framework for Nuclear Activities 1997 Update

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Information System on

Occupational Exp os ure

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Fluid Flow through Faults and Fractures in Argillaceous Formations A Joint NEA/EC Workshop, Berne, Switzerland, 10-12 June 1996

&)~:~ j ISBN 92-64-16021 -3

FLUI D FLOW THRO UGH FAU LTS AND FRACTURES IN ARGILLACEOUS FORMATIO N S

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An evaluation of the occurre nce of fluid flo w through faults and fracture s is of prim ary importance fo r the perfo rma nce assessment of radioactive waste repositories located in

argillaceous settings. In arder to provide the national waste management organisations and the scientific community at large with insights into the driving processes and the occurrence of fluid flow thro ugh faults and fractures in argillaceous formations , the NEA and the EC joint ly orga nised a workshop on this tapie. This publication includes the papers presented ora lly or as poste rs at the workshop , and is introduced by a synthesi s of the tapies addressed and th e co nclusions reached.

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NUCLEAR EMERGENCY DATA MANAGEMENT

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The efficient and complete exchange of data in nuclear emergency situat io ns is essential to the accident

management process, particularly in the pre-release and short­term , post-release phases . Expe rie nce from the NEA's first International Nuclear Emergency Exercise (INEX 1), and planning for INEX 2, have indicated that perhaps the use of "old" fa x and telex technologies will not be sufficient to meet current needs of data transmissio n, particularly in terms of numerical and graphical data. To address this issue, "modern" technologies such as electronic mail, the Worldwide Web and interactive databases are see n as useful tools to provide a step forward in this area. Th is publication is a compilation of presentations made at an NEA-sponsored workshop on this topic. Many national and international approaches to the modernisation of data exchange formats and mechanisms are presented , re presenting the state of the art in this area. To assure the facility of data exchange, sorne level of "standardisation" will be necessary, taking into account the various needs and capa bilities of the national emergency response programmes involved . The approaches presented here represent the various ideas cu rrently being im plemented or tested , from which a "standard approach" will emerge in the near future.

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Safety Research Needs for Russian-Designed Reactors

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The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency co-operates with both the central and eastern European countries and the New

Independent States of the former Soviet Union in planning and executing safety research programmes. The purpose is to build up kno w-how and capabilities in safety technology pertaining to their nuclear po wer plants. In this report, senior safety experts from Russia and Western countries review the nuclear-safety resea rch needed to improve the safety of Russian-designed nuclea r power reactors. They have selected a number of important research topics to which priority should be given . They have also identified nuclear­safety research topics that would benefit from a collaborative effort between eastern and western nuclear-safety researchers.

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Thi s public information file presents in a standardised format descriptions of 17 NEA countries' radioactive waste management programmes. Each of the fact sheets composing this file

includes a brief overview of the nuclear energy programme in the country being reviewed, a desc ription of its radioactive waste management programme, R&D work in this field , provisions regarding the long-term financing of radioactive waste storage and disposaL transport, and a list of contact points for further information. This file also includes a description of the

role of internatio nal co-operation in the fie ld of radioactive waste management under the aegis of the NEA, a summary of recent NEA fin dings and "collecti ve opinion" statements adopted by NEA Member countries. This new publication wil l be a usefu l reference tool for those interested in an up-to-date overview of the status of radioactive waste management programmes in NEA co untries. It can also provide additional support to public information programmes, in particular those aimed at students and visitors at nuclear power sites.

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SATIF-3 Shielding Aspects of Accelerators, Targets and Irradia ti on Facilities

Catalogue of Publications 1998

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NUCLEAR LAW

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Nuclear Law Bulletin

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C onsidered to be the standard reference work for bo t h professionnals and academies in the field of nuclear la w,

the Nuclear La w Bulletin is a unique international publication providing its subscribers with up-to-date information on all major developments falling within the domain of nuclear la w. Published twice a year in both English and French, it covers legislati ve developments in almost 60 countries around the world as well as reporting on relevant jurisprudence and administrative decisions, bilateral and international agreements and regulatory acti vi ties of international organisations.

Vacancies occur in the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency Secretariat in the following areas:

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From the American Nuclear Society (ANS)

ADWASTE -It Delivers! M A G A z N E

Issue afte r issue . Radwasre Magazin e d e liv e rs! With each issue , readers rec e ive p ractic a l and topica l a rti c le s o n radioac t ive w as te and e n v iro nm ent a l m a n agem e nt. Tha t's wh y you n eed y ou r own subsc ription to Raclwoste Magoz ine. a b imon th ly p ublic a tion th a t cove rs the m os t d y n am ic segm ent of tlle nuclea r indus try.

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w as t es :

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