newsvol. 22, no. 3 august 2012 news global energy and water exchanges gewex is now “global energy...

August 2012Vol. 22, No. 3

NEWSNEWSGlobal Energy and Water Exchanges

GEWEX is now“Global Energy and Water Exchanges” (See Page 2)

The launch of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s (DMSP) F08 spacecraft in June 1987 marked the beginning of a nearly continuous 25-year record of high-quality global window-channel microwave observations. Shown is the availability of intercalibrated Colorado State University Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR) brightness temperature data from the SSM/I and Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) sensors. See article by W. Berg et al. on page 4.

25-Year SSM/I and SSMIS Global Data Record:A Valuable Resource for Global Water Cycle Studies

Also Inside • Conclusions and recommendations from the 4th WCRP International Conference on Reanalyses (page 6)

• BALTEX celebrates 20th anniversary—accomplishments and plans for the future (page 9)

• Results from Phase I of the Murray-Darling Basin Water Budget Project (page 12)

• The Belmont Challenge (page 14) and the Future Earth Project (page 16)—how GEWEX could contribute

Help us with the creation of a new logo for GEWEX.Send us your ideas in jpg format and we will post them on: http://www.gewex.org

2 August2012

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment

Commentary

Global Energy and Water Exchanges: “GEWEX”

Kevin E. TrenberthChair, GEWEX Scientific Steering Group

Asmanyofyouknow,wehavebeenexploring the possibility of a newname for GEWEX. This is part andparceloftherevampedWorldClimateResearch Programme (WCRP) post-2013era,whereprojectsareredefined,newcouncilsareimplemented,andwe

move forward into thechallengesof theAnthropoceneandFutureEarth.Weinitiatedacommentaryperiodwithregardto the GEWEX name, and finally settled on a poll amongthreechoices:

1.Nochange–keepGlobalEnergyandWaterCycleExperi-ment(GEWEX)

2.RedefineGEWEXasGlobalEnergyandWaterExchanges

3.ChangenametoCLEW(Climate,Land,EnergyandWater)

ThelatterarisesfromaWordleofourmission,vision, and Imperatives statements, and thewords “climate,” “land,” “energy,” and “water”emerge as dominant themes in our proposedendeavors.Theword“CLEW”is fairlyuniquewhen Googled and in Greek mythology refersto the ball of thread used by Theseus to findhiswayoutofthelabyrinth.Perhapsnotabadnameasitshowsthewayandatleastwewouldnotbe“clewless.”

The poll resulted in 127 responses, and manycomments revealed a strong resistance to re-branding GEWEX but with the recognitionthattheoldnameisobsolete—wearenolongeranexperiment.Onecommentwereceivedwasthatwemustnotlosethe“x-factor!”

Accordingly, thechoicewasclear:retaintheGEWEXacro-nymbutmodifywhatitmeans.Thishasnowbeenapproved

asawayforwardbytheWCRPJointScientificCommittee(JSC)andgivesuslicensetorevampthelogo,itscolorandfont.Myoff-the-cuffattemptata logoisonthenextpage.Suggestionsarewelcomed.

Other WCRP projects are in a similar situation: The Cli-mate andCyrosphereProject (CliC),whichwas thenewestoftheWCRPprojects,willremainasitis.TheStratosphericProcessesandtheirRoleinClimate(SPARC)ProjectandtheClimateVariabilityandPredictabilityProject(CLIVAR)willberetainedbutlikelywithadifferentmeaningoracronym.

TherewasalotofdiscussionovertheInternetthatensuedaspartof thisprocess.Manyconsidered the stove-piping intoland-atmosphere (GEWEX), ocean-atmosphere (CLIVAR),stratosphere-atmosphere(SPARC)andthecryospheretobeanobsolete concept sincewemustdealwith theentire cli-mate system.This iscertainly true,but themanagementofprojectsisbestbrokenupintobite-sizedchunksandshared.While someprojectsmaynotneed theWCRP framework,manydo.Scientistsfromsmalleranddevelopingcountrieses-peciallylooktoWCRPforleadershipandasawaytoleveragetheircontributions.However,amajorconcernwhichIraisedattherecentJSCmeetingwasaboutthesynthesisandglobalaspectsofclimate:howwillallof theprojectcontributionsbeintegratedintoaviewoftheentireclimatesystem?Globaldatasetsprovideoneperspective,forinstanceasfosteredinGEWEXDataandAssessmentsPanel(GDAP),whileglobal

modeling on either seasonal to interannual [WCRPWork-ingGrouponSeasonal-to-InterannualPrediction(WGSIP)]or longer [WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modeling(WGCM)] activities provide another. Previously, CLIVARhashada focusonclimatevariabilityandpredictabilityonmultiple time scales, and hence there is a concern that ifCLIVARnarrowsitsperspectivetobeprimarilyoceans,someofthiscouldbelost.

Accordingly,proposalswerefloatedabouttheGEWEXGlob-al Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) Panel, which leadsWCRP activities on atmospheric processes in combinationwithSPARC,whichdealswiththetroposphere-stratosphericinteractions, and the World Meteorological Organization/WCRP Working Group for Numerical Experimentation

Redefine GEWEX: 1.58 7.10

No Name Change: 2.09 4.54

Change the Name: 2.32 3.40

GEWEX Name Poll ResultsChoices Ranked 1, 2, 3 or Scored 0 to 10

3August2012


(WGNE),whichdealswithsomemodelingaspects.Further,aglobalmonsoonprojectisproposedthatfocusesonprocessesandphenomena,thelarge-scaledynamics,andcommonfac-tors,withfurtheractivitiesinregionswithinthissettingtodealwiththeuniqueaspectsoftheAsian-Australian,African,andAmericanmonsoons.ExtremeeventsisanotherareathatcutsacrossWCRPandrequiresanintegratedapproach,althoughwithGEWEXplayingamajororperhapsleadingrole.Theseprojectsshouldnotbeconfinedtolandorocean,butshouldbeglobal.Nevertheless,theyarelikelytobehostedwithinoneoftheprojects(e.g.,GEWEX,CLIVAR),whichwilltaketheleadonorganizationalmattersthroughtheprojectoffices.

Amajor topicat theJSCmeetingwas theproposedGrandChallenges, which also falls under global synthesis efforts.ThefourGrandScienceQuestionsadoptedbyGEWEXhavebeen discussed (see the November 2011 issue of GEWEX News), anda four-pagedescriptionof eachhasbeendevel-opedandwillbe circulated soon. It appears that therewillalsobesix WCRP Grand Challenges (see below) that pro-vide a focus for tractable and actionable science over the next 5–10 years.

1.Skillful regional climate information consisting of threeinitiatives:(i)intraseasonaltoseasonalandinterannualpre-diction(CLIVARlead);(ii)decadalprediction(CLIVARlead); and (iii) long-term regional climate information(WGCMwillsupporttheinitialplanningphase).

2.Regionalsealevelrise,whichwillincludeaglobalcompo-nent(CLIVARlead,withinputbyGEWEXandCliC).

3.Cryosphereinachangingclimate(CliClead).

4.Cloudandclimatesensitivity(ledbyWGCMwithstrongGEWEX/GASSinvolvement).

5.Changesinwateravailability(GEWEXlead).

6.Prediction and attribution of extreme events (GEWEXlead).

Future Earth(http://www.icsu.org/future-earth/; seearticleonpage16)isthenamebeinggivenbytheInternationalCouncil

Contents

forScience(ICSU)tothenewprogramtoreplacetheEarthSystemSciencePartnership(ESSP)andembracetheInterna-tionalGeosphere-BiosphereProgramme(IGBP),theInterna-tional Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environ-mental Change (IHDP), and DIVERSITAS. Future Earthisa10-yearinternationalresearchinitiativethatwilldeveloptheknowledgeforrespondingeffectivelytotherisksandop-portunitiesofglobalenvironmentalchangeandforsupport-ingtransformationtowardsglobalsustainability inthecom-ingdecades.FutureEarthwasannouncedattheMarch2012IGBP-led Planet Under Pressure Conference (http://www.planetunderpressure2012.net/)heldinLondon,atwhichIwasprivilegedtocontribute.

A large component of Future Earth is related to the Bel-mont Forum (http://igfagcr.org/index.php/belmont-forum; seearticleonpage14)activitiesamongtheleadingfundingagen-cies(IGFAistheInternationalGroupofFundingAgencies)aroundtheworld.ThecombinedforcesofICSUandIGFAhavedesignedthisnewapproachtosustainabilityscienceap-propriatefortheAnthropoceneashumaninfluencesdominateenvironmentalchangeaswellasclimatechange.Themagni-tudeoftheproblemwefacewasbroughthometomeattheJSCmeetingbyJamesSyvitskiwhochairs the IGBP.WhenyoucontemplatethattherewillbeninebillionpeoplelivingonEarthbyperhaps2050,itmeansaddingacityofamillionpeopleeveryweekfromhereonout.Wow!

ThisnewframingofWCRPandGEWEXpresentsexcitingopportunitiesforusinGEWEXandinWCRP,butalsochal-lengesintermsofencouragingscientiststojoinus,ensuringthatfundingisforthcoming,andthatwehavetheinfrastruc-turetosupporttheefforts.IlookforwardtothesechallengesandIhopeyouallwilljoinus.

Commentary – Global Energy and Water Cycle .............2 Exchanges: “GEWEX”

A Fundamental Climate Data Record of Microwave .......4 Brightness Temperature Data from 25 Years of SSM/I and SSMIS Observations

4th WCRP International Conference on ............................6 Reanalyses: Conclusions and Recommendations

BALTEX: 20 Years and Two Successful Phases .............9 in Baltic Sea Regional Studies

Murray-Darling Basin Regional Hydroclimate ................12 Project Wraps Up Phase I

The Belmont Challenge–International ...........................14 Collaboration in Support of Global Change Research

Future Earth–Research for Global Sustainability.........16

4 August2012


A Fundamental Climate Data Record of Microwave Brightness Temperature Data from

25 Years of SSM/I and SSMIS Observations

Wesley Berg1, Christian Kummerow1, Mathew Sapiano2, Nereida Rodriguez-Alvarez1, and Fuhzong Weng3

1Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; 2Univer-sity of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA; 3NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA

ThelaunchoftheSpecialSensorMicrowave/Imager(SSM/I)on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program’s(DMSP)F08spacecraftinJuneof1987markedthebeginningofanearlycontinuous25-yearrecordofhigh-qualityglobalwindow-channel microwave observations. Since that firstlaunch,atotalofsixSSM/Isensorsandthreeofthenextgen-erationSpecialSensorMicrowaveImagerSounders(SSMIS)haveflownonboardthepolar-orbitingDMSPsatelliteseries.Thefigureonpage1showstheavailabilityofdatafromtheseninesensors,whichcurrentlycompriseover70satelliteyearsofobservations.

The long time series provided by these operational sensorsalongwiththeirfrequentsampling,globalcoverage,excellentstability,andsensitivitymakes thesedataextremelyvaluableforglobalwatercyclestudies.TheSSM/IandSSMISwindowchannelsaresensitivetoemissionbywatervapor,cloudwater,andprecipitatinghydrometeorsaswellasscatteringbylargeliquidand iceparticles,althoughunlikevisibleand infraredobservations,nonprecipitatingcloudsare relatively transpar-entatthesemicrowavefrequencies.Thismakesthedatawellsuited for estimates of precipitation rate, column water va-por, and cloud liquidwater, and surfaceparameters such asocean surfacewind speed, sea ice extent and concentration,snowcover,soilmoisture,andlandsurfaceemissivity.Theop-erationalfocusofthesesensors,however, limitstheiruseformanyclimateapplications.Tomaximizetheuseofthedataforlong-termmonitoring, theNationalOceanographicandAt-mosphericAdministration(NOAA)fundedthedevelopmentofaFundamentalClimateDataRecord(FCDR)ofintercali-bratedbrightnesstemperature(Tb)datafromtheSSM/IandSSMISsensors.TheNationalResearchCouncil(2004)definesanFCDRas“sensordata(e.g.,calibratedradiances,brightnesstemperatures,radarbackscatter)thathavebeenimprovedandqualitycontrolledovertime,togetherwiththeancillarydatausedtocalibratethem.”

ThemissionofNOAA’sClimateDataRecordProgramisto“developand implementa robust, sustainable,andscientifi-callydefensibleapproachtoproducingandpreservingclimaterecordsfromsatellitedata.”Thisrequiresafullydocumentedand transparent process with the capability to reprocess thedatarecordasknowledgeandtechniquesevolve(e.g., radia-tivetransfermodels),toextendthedatarecordasnewsensorsbecomeavailable,andtounderstandexactlywhatwasdonetocreatetheexistingFCDRsothatmistakesofthepastarenotrepeated. Lessons from previous CDR development efforts,

such as the satellite tropospheric temperature record (Spen-cerandCristy,1992;Cristyetal.,2000;MearsandWentz,2005,2009)emphasizetheimportanceofawell-documentedandtransparentprocess.FortheSSMI(S)FCDR,theoriginaltemperature data record (TDR) data were first reformattedinto“BASE”files,whichwiththeexceptionofduplicatescans,containalloftheoriginaldatabrokenintosingleorbitgranulesandwritteninNetCDF4withassociatedmetadata.TheBASEfilespreservetheoriginaldatainastandardself-documentingformat,provideacleandatasetforFCDRprocessing,andal-lowforsubsequentreprocessing.TheFCDRprocessingcodecontainsallofthecorrectionsappliedtothedatainasinglepieceofsoftwarewithaone-to-onecorrespondencebetweeninputandoutputdatafiles.Thecodeisalsoavailableaspartofthedocumentation.Duetosignificantdifferencesbetweentheinstruments,onecodewasdevelopedforthesixSSM/Isen-sorsandanotherforthethreeSSMISsensors.FortheSSMISsensors,theadditionalsoundingchannelsareincludedintheoutputFCDRfiles,althoughmanyofthecorrectionsandtheintercalibrationadjustmentswereonlyappliedtotheSSM/Iequivalentwindowchannels.

TheSSMI(S)FCDRdevelopment involved rigorousqualitycontrolof theoriginalTDRdata, corrections forknown is-sues/problems, adjustments for residual intercalibration dif-ferences using multiple independent approaches, active col-laborations with a wide range of CDR developers to solicitfeedback,andofcoursedetaileddocumentationofeveryas-pectoftheprocess.Theearlydatarecordfromthe1980sand1990sinparticularsufferedfromfrequentdatatransmissionandprocessingerrors,thusnecessitatingthedevelopmentofmultiplequalitycontrolprocedurestoidentifyandeliminateproblemdata.Theseincludechecksforabruptchangesfromclimatologicalmeanvalues,largegeolocationerrorsrelatedtotiming issues, andanomalous spikes in thegainvaluesusedtocomputetheantennatemperatures.Correctionsforcross-track biases were developed and applied to account for thefalloffat theedgeof thescanduetopartialbeamblockage,whichvariessignificantlybychannelandbetweensensors.ForSSMIS,solarandlunarintrusionsintothewarmloadleadingto calibration errors are a significant issue forF16 and to alesserextentforF17andF18duetotheadditionofafencedesigned to eliminate direct intrusions. An approach devel-opedfortheoperationalprocessingwasimplementedtoiden-tifyandremovegainanomaliesresultingfromtheseintrusions(Kunkeeetal.,2008).

PoeandConway(1990)investigatederrorsintheSSM/IpixelgeolocationfromDMSPF08inexcessof20–30km.Becauselandsurfaceshavemuchhighersurfaceemissivityvaluesthanoceansatthesefrequencies,windowchannelradiometersshowasharpland/oceancontrast,whichtheysubsequentlyusedtoestimateoffsetstothespacecraftattitudebasedonanalysisofhigh-resolutioncoastlines.FortheSSMI(S)FCDR,Bergetal.(2012)developed an automated approach to estimate time-dependent offsets in spacecraft attitude between sensors byminimizingTb differences between ascending and descend-ing satellite passes.While slight errors in the pixel geoloca-

5August2012


tionmaynotbeasignificantissueformanyapplications,theobservedTbaresensitivetovariationsintheEarthIncidenceAngle(EIA)duetoassociatedchangesinthesurfaceemissiv-ityandthedepthoftheatmospherealongtheslantpath.Asaresult,accurateestimatesoftheEIAareneededbothfortheintercalibrationandforsubsequentuseingeophysicalretrievalalgorithms.Correctionsmadetothesatelliteattitudebasedonthegeolocationanalysis(Bergetal.,2012)indicatesresidualuncertainties in the calculation of EIA of less than 0.1 de-grees,whichtranslatestoerrorsinthecalibrationoflessthan0.2 K for all channels. Precise estimates of EIA are criticalsinceadecreaseinthemeanEIAovertimeduetothedecayoftheDMSPorbitsleadstoachangeinthemeanTb,whichcanproduceanartificialclimatetrendifnotproperlyaccountedforbythegeophysicalretrievalalgorithms.

After eliminatingbaddata and applying the various correc-tions,multiple intercalibration approacheswereused tode-termine residual calibration differences between the sensors(Sapianoetal.,2012).Usingmultipleapproacheshelpsiden-tifypotentialissueswiththeindividualtechniques,increasesconfidenceintheresults,andprovidesanestimateofthere-sidual uncertainties. The techniques implemented includeddirectpolarmatchups,differencingagainstmodelsimulationsfrom reanalysis data, double differencing against matchupswiththeTropicalRainfallMeasuringMission(TRMM)Mi-crowaveImager,vicariouscoldcalibration(Ruf,2000)andanAmazonwarmcalibration(BrownandRuf,2005).Alloftheseapproaches involvecomputingsimulatedTbforeachsensorusing radiative transfer and surface emissivity models alongwith atmospheric profile and surface parameters to accountfor expected sensor differences resulting from differences inEIAandothersensorcharacteristics.Sincethelargestsourceof uncertainty for several of these techniques is the atmo-spheric profile and surface parameters used to compute thesimulatedTb,multiple sourceswereused, including the in-terimreanalysisfromtheEuropeanCentreforMediumRangeWeatherForecasting(ECMWF),NASA’sModernEraReanal-ysis(MERRA),andanoptimalestimationretrievaldevelopedbyElsaesserandKummerow(2008).Thisresultedinatotaloftendifferentestimatesoftheintercalibrationdifferencesbe-tweensensors,althoughnotallapproachescouldbeappliedtoallthesensors,particularlytheearlysensorsincludingF08andF10.Thetotalspreadbetweenthetechniqueswasgener-allylessthan0.5KforallchannelswithanuncertaintyinthemeanintercalibrationontheorderofafewtenthsofaKelvin.It is important to note, however, that while the final inter-calibratedFCDRTbarephysicallyconsistent,differencesinchannelfrequencies(e.g.,85.5GHzforSSM/Ivs.91.655forSSMIS),viewangles,spatialresolution,andobservationtime,etc.remain.Asaresult,geophysicalretrievalalgorithmsmusttakeintoaccountthesesensordifferences.

TheSSMI(S)FCDRfromColoradoStateUniversity(CSU)will be publicly distributed by NOAA’s National ClimaticDataCenter(NCDC)beginninginearly2013.Interestedus-ersmaycontacttheauthorsdirectly,however,foraccesstoanearlybetareleaseofthedata.ThedataarestoredasNetCDF4

filesusinginternaldatacompressiontoreducethetotaldatavolume.Evenso,thetotaldatavolumeexceedsthreeterabytesandcontainsover70satelliteyearsofdata.Notethataradarcalibration(RADCAL)beacononDMSPF15wasactivatedin August 2006 that caused substantial interference in the22.235GHzchannel.Althoughacorrectionwasapplied toremovetheRADCALcontamination,theresidualerrorinthecorrectionwasdeterminedtobeontheorderofseveralKelvinandthusthedatafromAugust2006forwardisnotdeemedsuitableforclimateapplications,althoughitismadeavailable.Additional information and documentation related to theproject is available on the web at: http://rain.atmos.colostate.edu/FCDR.

AcknowledgmentsThis project received funding via NOAA grant (numberNA09OAR4320893#9).

References

Berg,W.,M.Sapiano, J.Horsman,andC.Kummerow,2012. ImprovedgeolocationandEarthincidenceangleinformationforafundamentalcli-matedatarecordoftheSSM/Isensors.Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens.,inpress.

Brown,S.T.,andC.S.Ruf,2005.DeterminationofanAmazonHotRef-erence Target for the On-Orbit Calibration of Microwave Radiometers.J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol.,22,1340–1352.

Christy,J.R.,R.W.Spencer,andW.D.Braswell,2000.MSUtropospherictemperatures:Datasetconstructionandradiosondecomparisons.J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol.,17,1153–1170.

Elsaesser,G.S.,andC.Kummerow,2008.Towardsafullyparametricre-trievalofthenon-rainingparametersovertheglobaloceans.J. Appl. Meteo-rol.,47,1599–1618.

Kunkee,D.B.,S.D.Swadley,G.A.Poe,Y.Hong,andM.F.Werner,2008.SpecialSensorMicrowaveImagerSounder(SSMIS)RadiometricCalibra-tionAnomalies–Part I: IdentificationandCharacterization.IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens.,46,1017–1033.

Mears,C.A., andF. J.Wentz,2005.Theeffectofdiurnal correctiononsatellite-derivedlowertropospherictemperature.Science,309,1548–1551.

Mears,C.A.,andF.J.Wentz,2009.ConstructionoftheRemoteSensingSystemsV3.2atmospherictemperaturerecordsfromtheMSUandAMSUmicrowavesounders.J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol.,26,1040–1056.

National Research Council, 2004. Climate Data Records from Environ-mentalSatellites:InterimReport.TheNationalAcademiesPress,Washing-ton,D.C.,150pages.

Poe,G.A.,andR.W.Conway,1990.AStudyoftheGeolocationErrorsoftheSpecialSensorMicrowave/Imager(SSM/I).IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens.,28,791–799.

Ruf,C.S.,2000.Detectionofcalibrationdriftsinspacebornemicrowaveradiometersusingavicariouscoldreference.IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens.,38,44–52.

Sapiano,M.,W.Berg,D.McKague,andC.Kummerow,2012.TowardsanintercalibratedfundamentalclimatedatarecordoftheSSM/Isensors.IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens.,inpress.

Spencer,R.W.,andJ.R.Christy,1992.Precisionandradiosondevalidationofsatellitegridpointtemperatureanomalies.PartII:Atroposphericretrievalandtrendsduring1979–1990.J. Clim.,5,858–866.

6 August2012


4th WCRP InternationalConference on Reanalyses:

Conclusions and Recommendations

Michael G. Bosilovich NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/Global Modeling and Assimi-lation Office, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA

TheWorldClimateResearchProgramme (WCRP) Interna-tionalConferenceonReanalyses(ICR4)heldon7–11May2012 in Silver Spring, Maryland, provided an opportunityfortheinternationalcommunitytoreviewobservationalandmodelingresearch,aswellasprocessstudiesanduncertaintiesassociatedwithreanalysisoftheEarthsystemanditscompo-nents.PresentationsfromtheConferenceandthefinalCon-ferencereportwithalistingofallauthorsandcontributorsisavailableat:http://icr4.org/.

Atmospheric,oceanicand landreanalyseshavebecomefun-damentaltoolsforweather,ocean,hydrologyandclimatere-search.Theycontinuetoevolvewithimprovementsindataas-similation,numericalmodeling,andobservationrecoveryandqualitycontrol,andhavebecomelong-termclimateanden-vironmentalrecords.Reanalysesarenaturalintegrativetools,yetcouplingthecomponentsoftheEarthsysteminreanalysesremainsachallenge.

Observationsarethekeyresourceinproducingreanalyses,andimprovements inalgorithmsandqualitycontrolarestillad-vancing.Additionalchallenges remaintoaccount formodelbias as new data are assimilated and the observation recordevolves (e.g., new instruments replace old ones). These is-sues are especially important for using reanalyses in climateresearch. Extending the reanalysis record back in time is afundamentalneedoftheweatherandclimateresearchcom-munity.Consideringthesechallenges,theConferencehadthefollowingobjectives:

• Sharing current understanding of the major challengesfacing reanalyses: the changing observing system andintegratedEarthsystem.

• Assessingthestateofthedisciplinaryatmospheric,ocean,and land reanalyses, including the needs of the researchcommunity for weather, ocean, hydrology and climatereanalyses.

• Reviewingthenewdevelopmentsinthereanalyses,mod-elsandobservationsforstudyoftheEarthsystem.

• Exploringinternationalcollaborationinreanalysesinclud-ingitsroleinregionalandglobalclimateservices.

The Conference received strong support from the U.S. Na-tional Science Foundation, the National Aeronautics andSpaceAdministration,theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,theU.S.DepartmentofEnergy,theEurope-anSpaceAgency,andtheEuropeanGeophysicalUnion.

Conference ConclusionsReanalyseshavebecomeanintegralpartofEarthsystemsci-ence research across many disciplines.While originating intheatmosphericsciencesandnumericalweatherprediction,theessentialmethodologyhasbeenadoptedinthefieldsofoceanographyandterrestrialecosystemsandhydrology,withemerging research in atmospheric composition, cryosphereand carbon cycle disciplines. Major challenges lie ahead asthedisparatenatureofeachbecomejoinedinEarthsystemanalyses. Clearly, substantial progress has been made sincethe last reanalysis conference held in January 2008 inTo-kyo Japan. The Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Re-searchandApplications(MERRA,seefigureonnextpage),theClimateForecastingSystemReanalysis (CFSR)and theECMWFInterimReanalysis (ERA)havebeenevaluated indepth, and many strengths and weaknesses identified. Firstresults are available from Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55).ThereisalsomuchtobelearnedfromtheEarthSystemResearchLaboratory (ESRL)20CR surfacepressure reanal-ysis. Ocean reanalyses are demonstrating that ensembles ofmultiplereanalysissystemscanprovidevaluableinformation.

Whilethereareanumberofreanalysesatpresent,thecom-munityconsensusisthatthereremainsmuchtobeexploitedfromthesetsofdifferentreanalyses.Theseresultsarereflectedin thedevelopingplansof agencies,notably the JapanMe-teorologicalAgency(JMA)andEuropeanCentreforMedi-um-RangeWeatherForecasts(ECMWF),whichareleaningtowards“families”ofreanalyses,whereeachsystemproducesvariousconfigurationsofreanalysis.Yet,thereismuchtobelearnedfromobservations,dataassimilation,modeling,andcouplingofthewholeEarthsystem.

The importance of observing systems cannot be overstat-ed, especially in the stratosphere and deep ocean, to an-chor reanalyses. Assessing robust observational and modelerror covariances, preferably varying over time, is complexandexpensive.Whilemanyproducingandresearchagencieshavedevelopedandinvestigatedbiascorrectionmethods, itshouldbestressedthatbothmodelsanddatacontainbiases.Preliminaryresultsindicatethepotentialbenefitofcouplingthe ocean and atmosphere domains for improved forecastsand reanalyses. Data assimilation is also helpful in design-ingobservingsystemsandinidentifyingerroneousdatabutshouldbeconsistentwiththeprocessesitaimstoresolveandrequires appropriate model development for that purpose.Air-sea fluxes and deep sea circulation remain challengingquantities to be estimated. Given the discontinuous natureoftheobservationalrecord,dataassimilationtechniqueswillbetheprimarywaytodevelopmoretemporallycontinuousreanalysisoutputdata.

Insituobservationsarefundamentaltoreanalyses inmanyaspectsandvice-versa.Theycomplementtheremotesensingnetworkandprovidereferencedatasetsforcalibration,vali-dationandbiascorrectionpurposes.Reanalyseswouldben-efitfromagreaterrangeofhighqualitymonitoringproducts

7August2012


forvalidationpurposes.Forexample,newprecipitationdataproductsfromtheGlobalPrecipitationClimatologyCentre(GPCC)andtheHadleyCentrehighresolutionclimatedatasetoverland(HadISD)mayprovidevaluablehighqualityin-putdata.DataarchivessuchasInternationalComprehensiveOcean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) and InternationalGlobalRadiosondeArchive(IGRA)arebeingcontinuouslypopulated by newly rescued data. Efforts such as those oftheAtmosphericCirculationReconstructionsovertheEarth(ACRE)andtheInternationalEnvironmentalDataRescueOrganization(IEDRO)arecrucialtorescuingandarchivinghistoricaldata.TheInternationalSurfaceTemperatureInitia-tive(ISTI)hasthepotentialtobecomeavaluablelanddatasourceinthefuture.Reanalysesareusedtoidentifyandcor-rectparticulardatasets,suchasthosefromradiosondes.Theidentificationofbreakpointsindatatimeseriesiscriticaltothe success of adjustmentmethods and subsequentderiva-tionofclimatetrends.

Remote sensing provides useful input data for reanalyses,mostlyforthelastthreedecades.Olderimagerymightalsobeexploitedwithad-hocprocessing;however,satellitedatapresent some unique challenges. They require intercalibra-tion and regular reprocessing, and spectral response func-tions may also require corrections. As more climate datarecordsbecomeavailabletothescientificcommunity,properlong-termevolutionofforcingfieldsisimportantforallpilotreanalyses.

IntegratingthecomponentsoftheEarthsysteminareanaly-sis framework exposes the complexity of an observing andmodelingsystemapproach.Forexample,directandindirect(cloudalbedo)aerosolnegativeradiativeforcingwillprovidefeedbackontheotheranalyzedcomponents.Empiricalopti-caldepthretrievalandvariabletransformationaresomeofthetechniquesbeingusedtothateffect.Forwardproxymodel-ingapproachesusingensemblemeanincrementsmodifyingsinglemembersareabletodecreasethecomputationalbur-denofreanalysesandimproveoverallskill.LandatmosphereinteractioniswellrepresentedintheCFSR.Thehighresolu-tion(30km)ArcticSystemReanalysis(ASR)-InterimshowssuperiorskilltoERA-Interimonmanyparametersandanewreleaseat10kmisexpectedinSeptember2012.

Thereisamovetowardsusingreanalysesformonitoringsomeaspectsoftheclimate(e.g.,StateoftheClimatein2011,Bul-letin of the American Meteorological Society). The potentialvalueofreanalysesinthisrespectisgreat.However,therearestillsomeconsiderablelimitationsregardinglong-termmoni-toringthatdoneedtobeaddressed.Thesearemainlytem-poralhomogeneityacrosstheentryanddropoutofvariousobservingsystems[e.g.,AdvancedTIROSOperationalVerti-calSounderentryin1997],andbalancingthewaterbudgetespeciallyovertheoceans.Usedwithcaution,reanalysesarehighlyvaluableaslong-termrecordsanditisrecognizedthatsomelevelofreviewmaybeusefultoprovidecontextforfu-tureuseasmonitoringproducts.

Integrating aerosol species of the Earth system in reanalyses, MERRAero analyzed annual mean aerosol column mass for sulfate aerosols for a 4-year period (2007–2010). The MERRAero pilot project assimilates MODIS (to be expanded in later versions), and a new data set covering the 2003–2012 period should be released in 2012.

8 August2012


Reanalyseswillmostlikelyincreaseinnumberandcomplex-ityinthecomingyears.Incorporatingreanalysesinimproveddatasystems,suchastheEarthSystemGrid(designedtofa-cilitatetheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeas-sessments)would also facilitate the comparisons among re-analysesandindependentobservations,andwouldshedmorelightonthequalityandvariabilityamongreanalyses.Inter-national coordination across the disciplines and agencies isneeded to improve communications across the communityofusersanddevelopers. Inaddition, inputobservationsareimprovingandincreasing(throughdatarescueefforts),andreanalysesprojectsneedclearguidanceonthelatestdevelop-mentsintheobservationscommunity.

1. Quantitative Uncertainty Reanalyses are based on observations, and can include the errors of observations and the as-similating system. It is recommended to have reanalysis data available in a common frame-work so as to facilitate the analysis of their strengths and weaknesses. The idea of families of reanalyses will likewise expose the impact of assimilating observations on the analyses. En-semble methods can also provide quantitative un-certainty estimates. Lastly, passing observations and the innovations through to an easily accessi-ble data format can promote deeper investigation of the use of observations in the reanalyses.

2. Qualitative Uncertainty Often, researchers inquire about the applicability of a reanalysis for a given phenomenon, or even, which reanalysis is best. Often, this is not satisfac-torily known, varies with application and requires significant time and research. Therefore, sharing reanalysis knowledge and research in a timely manner, among researchers and developers is a critical need to allow subsequent exploita-tion by the climate community. The website at http://reanalysis.org has provided an initial effort along these lines, but more participation is encour-aged. In addition, http://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/ provides informed commentaries on analysis and other data sets.

3. Earth System Coupling The natural course of reanalysis development is toward longer data sets with coupled Earth system components that will ultimately contribute to im-proved coupled predictions. The use of more var-ied observations (e.g., aerosols) will reinforce the physical representation of the Earth system pro-cesses in the reanalysis systems. There is a need to develop independent and innovative model-ing, coupling and data assimilation methods to represent the Earth system throughout the time span of the observational record. More interdis-ciplinary collaborations in the system development and observational research will begin to address this need.

4. Reanalyses, Observations, and Stewardship While the observational records have been great-ly improved since the first reanalyses through research, reprocessing and homogenizations, research and improvements continue their develop-ment. Reprocessing and intercalibrations of ob-served records are critical to improve the qual-ity and consistency of reanalyses. In situ and satellite data need to be found, rescued, and archived into suitable formats to extend the re-analysis record back in time. Reanalysis system data for the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, land, and coupled earth system are needed that maxi-mize the use of observations as far back as each instrumental record will allow. It is important for the observational data developers and reanalysis de-velopers to maintain communication, so the latest observations are used in reanalyses, and also that the output of reanalyses may contribute to the un-derstanding of the observations. Such an endeavor should be coordinated at an international level.

Theneed for reanalyses is as clearnowas itwaswhen theconceptwasfirst put forwardmore than twodecades ago.Progress has been made, yet significant challenges remain.Continuingresearchanddevelopmentwillimprovethemostserious deficiencies, but communications across the com-munitieswillfacilitatethatresearch.Sustainedandfocusedsupportforreanalysesresearchbythefundingagencieswillensuregreaterprogressinthisbuddingfield,whichhasgreatpotentialindemonstratingthecomplimentarypowerofob-servationsandmodelstoofferscience-basedinformationfordecisionmakersinaddressingthechallengesandopportuni-tiesassociatedwithweather,climateandultimatelyenviron-mentalservices.

Recommendations from the Conference While progress has been made across major as-pects of reanalyses, significant limitations persist. Four broad directions to continue the advancement of reanalysis were identified.

9August2012


TheBalticSeaExperiment(BALTEX)wasfoundedin1993tostudythehydrologicalcycleandenergyfluxesbetweentheatmosphereandthelandsurface,includingriversandlakes.IthasbeenaGEWEXprojectsinceitscreationandistheonlyRegionalHydroclimateProject(RHP)withanoceanographicfocuscenteredontheBalticSea.

In itsalmost20yearsofexistence,BALTEXhasundergoneremarkabledevelopment.PhaseI(1993–2002)focusedexclu-sivelyonhydrometeorologicalresearch—exploringandmod-elingthevariousmechanismsdeterminingthespaceandtimevariabilityofenergyandwaterbudgetsoftheBalticSearegion(BALTEX1994).Tenyears later,thescopeofBALTEXwasextended to topics related toclimatevariabilityandchange,andwatermanagementandbiogeochemistry,thentermed“airandwaterquality”(PhaseII,BALTEX2004,2006a).Furthernewaspectswere the strengthened interactionwithdecisionmakerswithanemphasisonregionalclimatechangeimpactassessments,andeducationandoutreachattheinternationallevel.Thus, thescopeofBALTEXhasbeenbroadenedcon-siderably,withadedicatedextensiontomatterfluxes,regionalclimate changeassessments, andoutreachactivities (Recker-mannetal.,2011).

BACC and BACC IITheaimoftheBALTEXAssessmentofClimateChangefortheBalticSeaBasin(BACC)istobringtogetherconsolidatedknowledgeonclimatechangeanditseffectsontheBalticSeaBasin.ThefirstBACCreportwascompiledbyaconsortiumof84scientistsfrom13countriesneighboringtheBalticSea(BACCAuthorTeam,2008)andcoversvariousdisciplinesre-latedtoclimateresearchandrelatedimpacts.TheBalticSearegionrepresentsanoldculturallandscapeandtheBalticSeaitselfisamongthemoststudiedareasintheworld.Thus,thereisawealthofinformationinthousandsofpublications,con-cerningpastclimateconditionsintheregion.AlargepartoftheinformationhadnotbeenavailabletotheEnglish-speakingresearchcommunity,astheeasternpartoftheBalticSeaBasinhadbeenbehindthe“ironcurtain”untiltheearly1990s.Thechallengewasto installawritingteamthatcoulddo“papermining”initshomecountriesandcompilethematerialintoacomprehensive,well-writtenassessmentbook.Besideslookingatpastandcurrentclimatechange,theBACCreportpresentsclimateprojectionsuntiltheyear2100usingthemostsophis-ticatedregionalclimatemodelsavailable,andanassessmentofclimatechangeimpactsonterrestrial,freshwater,andmarineecosystemsoftheBalticSeabasin.Now,sixyearsafteritspub-lication,anupdatetotheBACCbookisinpreparation.

InBACCII, scheduled forpublication in2014,more than100contributingauthorswillassemblethe latestknowledgeonclimatechangeanditsimpactsintheBalticSearegionandwill integrate itwith thefindingsof thefirstBACCreport.SomeoftheaspectsthatwillbeemphasizedinBACCIIin-clude sea level change, socio-economic impacts, impacts onurbanregions,andanattempttoattributeregionalimpactstoanthropogenicclimatechange.Thechaptersarepeerreviewed,andwillbepresentedanddiscussedattheinternationalBACCIIConference inTallinn,Estonia inSeptember2012.Forasummary of BACC, see BALTEX 2006b and Reckermannetal.,2008.RecentinformationonBACCIIisavailableat:http://www.baltex-research.eu/BACC2/.

The BONUS ProjectsBONUSisafundingschemeoftheEuropeanCommissionandnationalfundingorganizationsestablishedto“integrateBalticSeasystemresearchintoadurable,cooperative,inter-disciplinary,well-integrated,andfocusedmultinationalpro-gram in support of the region´s sustainable development”(http://www.bonusportal.org). Three BALTEX projects havebeenfundedthusfar,whichareallconcernedwiththeimpactofthechangingconditionsinthefutureonthemarineenvi-ronmentoftheBalticSea:(1)theAssessmentandModelingofBalticEcosystemResponse (AMBER); (2)Baltic-C; and(3)theadvancedmodelingtoolforscenariosoftheBalticSeaEcosystem to support decision-making (ECOSUPPORT).Thelattertwoarebrieflydescribedbelow.TheyallcontributetothevisionofaregionalEarthModelSystem,butalsohaveaverypracticalrelevanceforexploringoptionsfordevelopingsoftwaretoolsandmodels.

The goal of ECOSUPPORT is to assess the combined fu-tureimpactsofclimatechangeandindustrialandagriculturalpracticesintheBalticSeacatchmentbasinoftheBalticSeaecosystem.ThemajoroutputofECOSUPPORTisamulti-model system tool to support decision makers. The tool isbasedonscenariosfromanexistingstate-of-the-artcoupledatmosphere-ice-ocean-land surfacemodel for theBaltic Seacatchment area, marine physical-biogeochemical models ofdifferingcomplexity,afoodwebmodel,statisticalfishpop-ulationmodels, andnewdataonclimateeffectsonmarinebiota.Itisachallengingnewapproachtointegratedifferentmodel “worlds” in order to generate benefits for Baltic Seamanagement.Theresults suggest that the impact of chang-ing climate on Baltic Sea biogeochemistry might indeed be significant (seefigureonpage10).Theprojectedwarm-ingoftheBalticSeaisanimportantdriverinrelationtoeu-trophicationanditisexpectedtoreduceitswaterqualityintermsofthechosenecologicalqualityindicators.Accordingtotheresults,theefficiencyofnutrientloadreductionswillbesmallerinafutureclimatecomparedtothepresentclimate,emphasizingtheneedforpoliticalactiontoreducenutrientflowsintotheBalticSea(Meieretal.,2012a;Wake,2012).Acompilationofpapershasjustbeenpublished(“ECOSUP-PORT–Different Ecosystem Drivers under Future ClimateScenarios in theBalticSea,”AMBIOSpecial Issue; seealso

BALTEX: 20 Years and Two Successful Phases in

Baltic Sea Regional Studies

Marcus ReckermannInternational BALTEX Secretariat, Helmholtz-Zentrum, Geesthacht, Germany

10 August2012


Meieretal.,2012b).Formoreinformation,seethewebsiteat:http://www.baltex-research.eu/ecosupport/.

TheoverallobjectiveofBaltic-C(buildingpredictivecapabilityregardingtheBalticSeaorganic/inorganiccarbonandoxygensystems)istoimproveourunderstandingoftheBalticSeacar-bonsystem,includingtheacid-base(pH)balance.Thisisdonebydevelopingandapplyinganewintegratedecosystemmodelframeworkbasedonthecyclingoforganiccarbon(Corg)andcarbondioxide(CO2)intheBalticSeaanditsdrainagebasin,takingintoaccountfluxesacrosstheatmosphereandsedimentinterfaces.SeawaterpHisamongthemostimportantfactorscontrollinglifeinmarinesystems,andacidificationcouldse-verely alter and threaten marine ecosystems. UnderstandingpHchangesincoastalregionscharacterizedbyhighbiologicalproduction andvarious anthropogenicmechanisms, such asclimate change, land-use change, eutrophication, and over-

fishing,isthereforecrucial.TheoverallaimofBaltic-CistoprovideatoolwhichcanbeusedtosupportthemanagementoftheBalticSea.Formoreinformation,seetheBaltic-Cweb-siteat:http://www.baltex-research.eu/baltic-c/.

Outreach ActivitiesTheoutreachactivitiesinBALTEXPhaseIIhavebeenmani-fold. BALTEX scientific conferences, summer schools, andpublications in peer-reviewed journals, conference proceed-ings,books,aBALTEXpublicationseries,andanewsletterareregularoutreachchannels.Collaborationswithpoliticalstake-holdershavebeenaspecialemphasisduringrecentyears.

InconnectionwithBACCandBACCII,thereisclosecollabo-rationwiththeintergovernmentalBalticMarineEnvironmentProtectionCommission (HelsinkiCommission,HELCOM;http://www.helcom.fi). HELCOM used the BACC report as

Simulated ensemble averages and observed annual mean water temperatures (a, b) and salinities (c, d) at Gotland Deep in the central Baltic Sea at 1.5 m (a, c) and 200 m (b, d) depth, annual mean oxygen concentrations at 200 m depth (e), and winter (January–March) mean surface phosphate (f) and nitrate (g) concentrations. Shaded areas denote the ranges of plus/minus one standard deviation around the ensemble averages.

The various nutrient load scenarios (1961–2098) are shown by colored lines (REF–yellow, BSAP–blue, BAU–red) and the reconstruction (1850–2006) by the black line. Nutrient load scenarios were calculated as:

• REF – current nutrient concentrations in rivers and current atmospheric deposition;• BSAP – reduced nutrient concentrations in rivers following the Baltic Sea Action Plan (HELCOM, 2007b) and 50 percent reduced atmospheric

nitrogen deposition; • BAU – business-as-usual for loads from rivers assuming an exponential growth of agriculture in all Baltic Sea countries and current atmospheric

deposition.

For comparison, observations from monitoring cruises at Gotland Deep [green diamonds, in panel (a) since 1970 only] and from the ship Svenska Björn, operated during 1902–1968 [orange triangles in panel (a)], were used (from Meier et al., 2012a).

11August2012


the basis for the HELCOM Thematic Assessment 2007 on“ClimateChangeintheBalticSeaArea”(HELCOM2007a),whichwasofficially adoptedby representativesof theBalticSeariparianstatesinMarch2007.Thismeansthatthecoun-tries adopt this material as recommendations for legislativemeasures.AnothercollaborationwithapoliticalorganizationintheBalticSeaareawasthejointinternationalconferenceon“AdaptingtoClimateChange—CaseStudiesfromtheBalticSeaRegion”inHamburg,Germany,togetherwiththeBalticSeaStatesSubregionalCooperation(BSSSC).Thisorganiza-tion represents the subregional political level (counties andmunicipalities)inallBalticSeastatesandfostersinternationalcollaborationoftheseentities.

In2009,asummerschoolon“ClimateImpactsontheBalticSea—FromSciencetoPolicy”wasorganizedbyBALTEXonthe Danish Baltic Sea island of Bornholm. The expert lec-tureswereturnedintoatextbook,mainlyaimedatstudentsandscientists,butalsoatpoliticalandadministrativedecisionmakers(Reckermannetal.,2012).AstheBalticSearegionhas a well-developed international framework for monitor-ing,assessing,andmanagingitsmarineecosystems,thebookprovidesagoodcasestudyforotherregionswheresuchman-agementisbeingorganized.

AninterestingBALTEXoutreachproduct,whichisbasedontheBACCbookandregionalclimatescenariosprocessedandusedbytheNorthernGermanClimateOffice,isthebook-let “Ostseeküste im Klimawandel (Baltic Coast in ClimateChange).”This63-pagebooklet,written inGerman, trans-latesthemainscientificfindingsonregionalclimatechangeand its implications into everyday language for the generalpublic(MeinkeandReckermann,2012).It isregardedasapilotstudyforproducingsimilarproductsbasedonBACCIImaterialinEnglishandalltheBalticSealanguages.

Workshopsandconferencesaretheglueofascientificcom-munity, and are particularly important in BALTEX. Since2003 (launch of Phase 2), there have been 19 conferencesandworkshopsorganizedbyBALTEX,bothforscientistsandregionaldecisionmakers andenvironmentalmanagers.Thelarge study conferences on BALTEX, which are organizedeverythreeyears,bringtogethertheBalticSearesearchcom-munitytopresentanddiscussBALTEXtopics.The7thStudyConferenceonBALTEXwilltakeplace10–14June2013ontheSwedish islandofÖland.A full list to conferences andpublications(withlinks)isavailableontheBALTEXwebsiteat:http://www.baltex-research.eu.

Future ProspectsAfter two successful phases, BALTEX is now transitioningintosomethingnew.Thenewprogrammayberenamed,asthescientificscopeandorganizationmaybedifferent.Cur-rently,adedicatedworkinggroupappointedbytheBALTEXScienceSteeringGroup(BSSG)iselaboratingonrecommen-dations for a future scientific program, including specified“grandchallenges.”Thesewillbepresentedto theBSSGinSeptember2012andthenewprogramisexpectedtobeof-

ficially launched at the 7th Study Conference on BALTEX.While concreteobjectives andgoals cannotbepresentedatthisstage,itisneverthelesspossibletoanticipatethedirectionofthenewprogramtowardsfurtherpromotinganinterdis-ciplinary regionalEarth systemapproach for theBalticSeaBasin,encompassing thephysical, chemical,biological, andsocio-economicspheresasfarasappropriate.Inthisrespect,researchtowardsanEarthsystemdescriptionandmodelingon the regional scale in its various aspects is an ambitiouschallengeforthefuture.

References

BACCAuthorTeam,2008.AssessmentofclimatechangefortheBalticSeaBasin.Springer Regional Climate Studies,473pp.

BALTEX, 1994. Scientific Plan for the Baltic Sea Experiment(BALTEX).Ed:E.Raschke,GKSSResearchCentre,Geesthacht.

BALTEX,2004.SciencePlanforBALTEXPhaseII2003–2012.Inter-national BALTEX Secretariat Publication,Vol.28,p.41.

BALTEX,2006a.BALTEXPhaseII(2003–2012):ScienceFrameworkandImplementationStrategy.International BALTEX Secretariat Publi-cation,Vol.34,92pp.

BALTEX,2006b.AssessmentofClimateChangefortheBalticSeaBa-sin–TheBACCProject.International BALTEX Secretariat Publication,Vol.35,26pp.

HELCOM,2007a.ClimatechangeintheBalticSeaarea.HELCOMThematic Assessment 2007. Baltic Sea Environment Proceedings, Vol.3,49pp.

HELCOM,2007b.HELCOMBalticSeaActionPlan.BalticMarineEnvironmentProtectionCommission,HelsinkiCommission,103pp.

Meier,H.E.M.etal.,2012a.Comparingreconstructedpastvariationsand future projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem–first results frommulti-modelensemblesimulations.Environ. Res. Lett.,7034005.

Meier,H.E.M.etal.,2012b.ImpactofclimatechangeonecologicalqualityindicatorsandbiogeochemicalfluxesintheBalticSea–Amulti-modelensemblestudy.AMBIO,41(6).

Meinke,I.,andM.Reckermann,2012.OstseeküsteimKlimawandel–EinHandbuchzumForschungsstand.NorddeutschesKlimabüroundInternationalesBALTEXSekretariat,Helmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht.63pp.

Reckermann M., H. von Storch, and H.-J. Isemer, 2008. ClimatechangeassessmentfortheBalticSeaBasin.EOS 89,161-2.

Reckermann,M.,etal.,2011.BALTEX–AninterdisciplinaryresearchnetworkfortheBalticSearegion.Environ. Res. Lett.,6045205.

Reckermann, M., K. Brander, B. R. MacKenzie, and A. Omstedt(Eds.),2012.ClimateImpactsontheBalticSea:FromSciencetoPol-icySchoolofEnvironmentalResearch–OrganizedbytheHelmholtz-ZentrumGeesthacht,Springer Earth System Sciences,XIV,216pp.

Wake, B., 2012. Climate and Baltic Sea Nutrients. Nature Climate Change,2,394.

12 August2012


Murray-Darling Basin Regional Hydroclimate Project Wraps Up Phase I

Jason EvansClimate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

TheMurray-DarlingBasin(MDB)WaterBudgetProjectwasapprovedasaGEWEXContinental-ScaleExperimentinJan-uary2002withtheaimofenhancingthecapabilityofnumeri-calweatherpredictionmodels toprovideareal-timesurfacewaterbudgetover theMurray-DarlingBasin forapplicationby water authorities. Along with changes at GEWEX, theWaterBudgetProjectevolvedintoaRegionalHydroclimateProject (RHP). The MDB RHP was a program of researchoccurring across various Australian agencies [the AustralianNuclearScienceTechnologyOrganization(ANSTO),Bureauof Meteorology (BoM), the Commonwealth Scientific andIndustrialResearchOrganization(CSIRO)]anduniversities.TheMDBRHPobjectiveswere:

• Produceandcompileresearchqualitydatasetsoftheen-ergyandwaterbudgetsintheMDB.

• Improvetheunderstandingandmodelingofthedynam-icsofthecoupledwater,energy,andcarboncyclesintheMDB,adevelopedsemi-aridzonebasin.

• Improvepredictivetoolsforwatermanagement,includingreal-timeforecastingproductsforusebywateragenciesintheMDB.

• Strengtheninteractionbetweentheclimateresearchcom-munityanddecisionmakers.

OverthedecadeofMDBresearch,manyadvancesweremadetoward theseobjectives andpresented in various journal ar-ticles, includinga special sectionofWater Resources Research (Roderick,2011;Evansetal.,2011).Thefollowingare twoexamplesofprojectsthatcontributedtotheRHPobjectives

andmanagedtotransitionfromresearchtooperationalprod-uctswithintheRHPtimeframe,aswellasanumberofdatacollectionprojects that augment the standard climatologicaldatanetwork.

Australian Water Availability Project (AWAP)Thisprojectdeveloped anoperational system for estimatingsoilmoistureandothercomponentsof thewaterbalanceatspatialscalesrangingfrom5kmtoallofAustraliaovertime-periods ranging fromdaily todecades.Theprojecthad twocomponents.ThefirstwasrunbyBoM,whichhasgeneratedarangeofimprovedmeteorologicalgriddedanalysesoverAus-traliaforprecipitation,temperature,vaporpressure,andsolarexposureata5kmspatialscaleandtimeperiodsfromdailyupwards.ThesecondpartoftheprojectwasrunbyCSIRO,whichusedahydrologicalmodeldrivenbytheabovemeteo-rological forcing to estimate the water balance componentsinnearrealtime.Thegriddedmeteorologicalanalysisisnowanoperationalproductthatisupdatedinnearrealtime(seebelow).

Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA)TheBoMwaterdivisionformedapartnershipwithCSIROtodelivernewscienceandtechnologythatwillenabletheBureautoundertakereal-time interactiveanalysisofwater informa-tionandbeginusingadvancedmethodsforforecastingofwa-teravailabilityandfloodsacrossAustralia.Theresearchbeingconductedcoversmanyfieldsincludingdatainteroperability,hydrologic modeling, water accounting, and water resourceassessment.Aspartofthistask,itisdevelopingtheAustralianWater Resources Information System (AWRIS: http://www.bom.gov.au/water/awris.shtml), an online information systemthat will collate and disseminate information about riverflows, groundwater levels, reservoir storage volumes, waterquality,wateruse,waterentitlements,andwatertradesfrommorethan200watersourcesacrossAustralia.Thesystemwillevolveandexpandoverthenext10years.

Examples of the gridded products available in near real-time from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/).

13August2012


A major area of progress has been in seasonal streamflowforecasts(seeabovefigure).AstatisticalapproachbasedonaBayesian Joint Probability modeling system has been devel-oped,tested,anddeployedoperationally.SeasonalstreamflowforecastsformanyriversineasternAustraliaareavailableat:http://www.bom.gov.au/water/ssf/index.shtml.

Hydrometeorological Data CollectionA number of projects that focused on data collection con-tributed to RHP objectives. One major effort has been theestablishmentoftheTerrestrialEcosystemResearchNetwork(TERN:http://www.tern.org.au/),whichexpandstheobserva-tionalnetworkofflux towersandotherecosystemmeasure-ments, aswell as collating, calibrating, validating, and stan-dardizingexistingdatasets.TERNisalsoinvestingindigitalinfrastructuretostoreandpublishthesedatainafreelyacces-sibleandsearchableway.TheTERNdatadiscoveryportaliscurrentlyundergoingbetatesting,withthefullyoperationalportalscheduledforcompletionbytheendoftheyear.

Another major observational effort was the National Air-borne Field Experiment (http://www.nafe.unimelb.edu.au/),which is collecting data in support of soil moisture remotesensing research. It combines the collection of ground levelinsituandfluxtowerdatawithmultipleairbornecampaignsandsatellite-baseddata.TheProjecthasproducedarichsetofdataforasectionoftheMurrumbidgeeCatchment.ThishasevolvedintotheAustralianAirborneCal/valExperimentfor the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) Mission(AACES: http://www.moisturemap.monash.edu.au/aaces/). Us-ingasimilarlyrichsetofdata,thefocusforthisprojectistheevaluationandcalibrationofbrightnesstemperatureandsoilmoisturefromtheSMOSsatellitedata(Peischletal.,2012).Work continueson the testing and improvementofSMOSsoilmoistureretrievalalgorithmsundertheoftendrycondi-tionspresent in theMDB.Future campaignswill includea

focus on the Aquarius and Soil Moisture Active Passive(SMAP)satellites.

MDB NextHavingproducedsomesignificantresearchadvancesconcern-ingourknowledgeofthehydroclimatesystemintheMDB,and successfully connecting this research with operationalagencies, theMDBRHPhasreachedtheendof itsdecade-longprogram.Asoftenhappensinresearchprograms,asmanyquestionsareraisedasadvancesaremade.Whathappensnextin hydroclimate research in the MDB is an open questioncurrently being considered. Many of the observational pro-gramsarecontinuing,andthestrengtheningofinternationalregional-scaleclimateresearchprojectsliketheCOordinatedRegionalclimateDownscalingExperiment(CORDEX)pro-videastartforthedevelopmentofanewRHP.SuchanewRHPwillalsoconsiderthedevelopingWCRPGrandChal-lenges and GEWEX Grand Science Questions. Ultimately,themagnitudeofwaterresourcechallengesfacedbyadevel-oped semi-arid region in a globallywarmingworld requirestheregionalcoordinationthataGEWEXRHPcanprovideinhydroclimateresearch.

References

Evans,J.P.,A.J.Pitman,andF.T.Cruz,2011.CoupledatmosphericandlandsurfacedynamicsoversoutheastAustralia:Areview,analysisandiden-tificationoffutureresearchpriorities.International Journal of Climatology,31,1758–1772,doi:10.1002/joc.2206.

Peischl,S.,J.P.Walker,C.Rüdiger,N.Ye,Y.H.Kerr,E.Kim,R.Bandara,andM.Allahmoradi,2012.TheAACESfieldexperiments:SMOScalibra-tionandvalidationacross theMurrumbidgeeRiver catchment.Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,16,1697–1708,doi:10.5194/hess-16-1697-2012.

Roderick,M.L.,2011.IntroductiontospecialsectiononWaterResourcesintheMurray-DarlingBasin:Past,present,andfuture.Water Resour. Res., 47,W00G01,doi:10.1029/2011WR010991.

An example of the seasonal streamflow forecasts available through the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website.

14 August2012


The Belmont Challenge — International Collaboration in Support of

Global Change ResearchMaria L. Uhle1, Patrick Monfray2, and Sandrine Paillard2

1National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia, USA; 2Environ-ment and Biological Resources Department, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, Paris, France

Global environmental change is increasingly studied by na-tionaland international researchers,but the lackof interna-tionalcollaborationandcoordination is increasingly leadingto inefficiencies and lost opportunities. The world’s majorfundersofglobalchangeresearchareconsideringhowbesttoalignfinancial andhumancapital towarddelivering the rel-evantknowledgethatsocietywillneedinthe21stcentury.TheBelmontForum(namedafterthegroup’sfirstmeetingvenueintheUSAin2009;http://igfagcr.org/index.php/belmont-forum)meetstwiceayearandiscomposedoffundingexecutivesfromAustralia,Austria,Brazil,Canada,China,France,Germany,India,Japan,Norway,SouthAfrica,theUnitedKingdom,theUnitedStates,andtheEuropeanCommission,togetherwiththeexecutivedirectorsoftheInternationalCouncilforScience(ICSU)andInternationalSocialSciencesCouncil(ISSC).

TheBelmontForumisalsotheCouncilofPrincipalsforthelarger International Group of Funding Agencies for GlobalChangeResearch(IGFA;http://igfagcr.org),whichincludesthefundingexecutiveslistedaboveaswellasthosefrommorethan20additionalcountries.ActionbytheinternationalfundingcommunitytoformtheBelmontForumwasinitiatedandledbyTimKilleen, thenat theU.S.NationalScienceFounda-tion,andAlanThorpe,oftheUnitedKingdom’sNaturalEn-vironmentResearchCouncil(NERC).TheBelmontForum,isnowledbyPatrickMonfrayofFrance’sNationalResearchAgency, and Albert van Jaarsfeld of South Africa’s NationalResearchFoundation.Thiscoordinatedmovementrepresentsacommitmenttoacollectiveactionagendatoco-design,co-develop, and co-deliver research programs to examine thecomplexrelationshipofhumanswiththeplanet.Inparticular,thegroupaimstoprovideknowledgethatcanbeusedtocon-frontthemostsignificantchallengessocietyfacesinmanaginganincreasinglycongestedandresource-hungryworld.

ThesegoalsarecapturedbytheBelmontChallenge(seeboxatright),whichaimstodeliverknowledgeneededforsociet-iestotakeactiontomitigateandadapttoharmfulenviron-mental change and extremehazardous events.TheBelmontForumemphasizes research collaborations amongdevelopedanddevelopingnations inboth theNorthernandSouthernhemispheres. Thus, its members include not only countriestypicallyseenincollaborationsonglobalchangeresearchbutalso large, emerging economies, such as Brazil, India, Rus-sia,andSouthAfrica.Thereisalsoaspecificefforttoharnesstheperspectivesofboththesocialandnaturalsciences.Thisintegratedapproachisapparentbothintheforummember-ship, which includes ISSC and ICSU, and in the emphasisoncodesignedresearchprojects.Centraltothisactivityisthemobilizationofinternationalresourcesforthestudyofglobalenvironmentalchange.

ThefirstcallforproposalsundertheBelmontForum’sInter-nationalOpportunitiesFund(IOF)waslaunchedatthePlan-etUnderPressureConferenceinLondonattheendofMarch2012.TheIOFcallisjointlyfundedbytheBelmontForumandtheG8HeadsofResearchCouncils(G8HORCs),intheamountofapproximately€20Million.Thefocusthemesofthisfirstroundarecoastalvulnerabilityandfreshwatersecu-rity. The freshwater security program targets the identifica-tionandcharacterizationoftheinteractionsbetweennaturalprocesses (physical and biological/ecological processes) andhuman practices (cultural, social, economic, technological,transfer, and water reuse) that govern water budgeting inselectedregions.Italsotargetsthedevelopmentofapproachesthat support the evolutionof resilient communities/regionsthroughimprovedseasonal(monthstomultiyear)forecastingofdroughts,takingintoaccountnaturalandsocioeconomicdrivers.

The coastal vulnerability program targets the characteriza-tion of natural processes and human interactions that gov-erncoastalvulnerabilityandresilienceandthedevelopmentof predictive frameworks and adaptive coastalmanagementstrategiesthatsupporttheevolutionofresilientcoastalcom-munities.TheIOFisaimedatsupportingexcellentresearchontopicsofglobalrelevancebesttackledthroughamultina-tionalapproach,recognisingthatglobalchallengesneedglob-al solutions. Funding supports researchers to cooperate inconsortiaconsistingofpartnersfromatleastthreeofthepar-ticipatingcountriesandbringingtogethernaturalscientists,socialscientistsandresearchusers(policymakers,regulators,nongovernment organizations, communities and industry)for2–3yearresearchprojects,withfundsintherangeof€1

The Belmont Challenge

To deliver knowledge needed for societies to take ac-tion to mitigate and adapt to harmful environmental change and extreme hazardous events.

This requires:

• Information on the state of the environment, through advanced observing systems.

• Assessments of risks, impacts and vulnerabilities, through regional and decadal analysis and predic-tion.

• Providing environmental information services to decision-makers and end users.

• Interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary research which takes account of coupled natural, social and economic systems.

• Effective integration and coordination mechanisms to address interdependencies and harness the nec-essary resources.

15August2012


millionto€2millioneach.Capacitybuildingindevelopingcountriesmayalsobe supported.Thepre-proposal stageoftheIOF,whichclosedinJuly,wasaresoundingsuccesswith137submittedpre-proposals, involving1109partners from56countries.

ThedesignofIOFprogramsreliesheavilyoninputfromtheinternationalresearchcommunityaboutgoalsandrefiningthelarger themes. In the first set of calls for proposals, as withfutureIOFthemes,theaimistocatalyzeresearchbyprovid-ingamechanismtosupportco-designed,international,cross-disciplinaryandtransdisciplinarycollabo-ration.Planningofsubsequentroundsofproposals for IOF programs are underway, focusingonArcticchange,hazards,biofuels, information technologies, foodsecurity, and rural-to-urban transition,each with internationally coordinatedfunding opportunities. Moreover, theBelmontForumwasoneofthefoundingorganizationstoestablishtheScienceandTechnology Alliance for Global Sustain-ability at the Forum’s meeting in CapeTown, South Africa in October 2010.TheAlliance’sfirstprojectis“FutureEarth”(http://www.icsu.org/future-earth;seearticleon page16),a10-yearinitiativethatwasrolledoutattheRio+20ConferenceinJune2012.TheBelmontForum’sIOFwillbeoneof thevehiclesusedtofurtherthegoalsofFutureEarth.

TheForum’sinternationalpartnershipamongresearchfund-ing organizations aims for active coordination of globalchangeresearchfunding,integrationofrelevantstakeholders(includingindustry,policymakers,andendusers),andcross-disciplinary collaboration.Tobemost valuable, theknowl-edge generated from these research collaborations must beprovidedontemporalandspatialscalesthatenableeffectivedecisionmakingandsupportequitableeconomicandsocialdevelopment. IOFprograms supportnewpartnerships andresearch opportunities for science communities; promotecross-fertilizationofideasbasedonregion-specificresources;and provide access to international expertise, facilities, anddata.Harnessingcomplementaryinternationalglobalchangeresearcheffortswillremainachallenge,butsuccesswillleadtobetter coordination, leveraging, and, especially, advance-mentonpressingscience issues.TheBelmontForum’sIOFwillissuescallsforproposalstoofferthesupportneededtoworktowardachievingthesegoals.

The GEWEX community can play a significant role in helping the Belmont Forum develop future calls of the International Opportunities Fund. Participationin“listen-ing sessions and ideas rallies” such as those planned at theAmericanGeophysicalUnionmeeting inDecembercanbefruitfulopportunitiesfortheGEWEXcommunitytoprovideinsights and ideas on ways that international collaborationcanprovide the researchneeded tohelpmeet theBelmontChallenge. GEWEX expertise and experience is critical in

helping overcome key challenges of global environmentalchangebycontributingtoourcollectiveunderstandingandprovidingaccessto:

1.Informationonthestateoftheenvironmentthroughad-vancedobservingsystemstoverifytheaccuracyofpredic-tions,assessproximitytodisruptivechange,andmonitortheeffectivenessofadaptationandmitigationstrategies;

2.Dataandknowledgetoimprove,verify,andrefinemodelpredictionsatregionalanddecadalscales;

3. Data andknowledge to assess proximity todisruptive tipping points in order to identifyvulnerable regions and societies, provide earlywarningofdisruptivechange(e.g.,extremehy-drometeorologicalevents,disruptionofecosys-temservices),andprovideavoidanceandadap-tationstrategies;and

4. Monitoring of stocks and fluxes of key en-vironmentalchangevariablesforlong-termsur-vey,andtosupportmarketsandregulation.

Tomaximizetheefficiencyofexistingcapabili-ties, there isaneed to improvecoordinationbe-

tweenexistingobservationanddatasystems,andbetweenaca-demicandoperationalsystems.ManyGEWEXactivitiesareimportantpartnersofthemajorinternationalprogramsaimedatimprovingtheeffectivenessandcoordinationofglobalandregionalmonitoringsystems.

MeetingtheBelmontChallengerequirespredictivecapabili-tiesofrisks,impacts,andvulnerabilitiesthroughregionalanddecadal analysis and prediction to provide foresight aboutchangesintheEarthSystem,whichtakesfullaccountofsoci-etalinteractionsandfocusonchangesthatmaycauseabruptandpotentiallyirreversibleanddisastrouschanges.

The GEWEX community could play a key role in devel-oping predictive capabilities measuring the likelihood and severity of extreme hydrometeorological events and related geohazards, and their impacts on human socio-economic systems. Working with other international proj-ects, GEWEX could help determine the likelihood of bio-diversity loss for a given terrestrial, freshwater or marine region, under given climate and management scenarios, and predictions of the environmental and health impact of changes to other biogeochemical cycles. GEWEX could also provide analyses and predictions of coupled meteo-rological, biological, biogeochemical, hydrological, geo-logical, and socio-economic processes, as well as develop-ing the capability to “zoom in” and “zoom out” between global and regional-scale assessments.

InternationalcollaborationisakeytenetoftheBelmontFo-rumandwe expect that theGEWEXcommunitywill con-tinuetoplayacriticalroleinworkingtowardsimprovingourunderstandingofthechallengesandimpactofglobalchange.

16 August2012


A multi-stakeholder committee, known as the TransitionTeam,wasappointedbytheAllianceinJune2011toworkonthedesignofFutureEarth.Theteamfocusedonthreemainpriorities, namely the research framework, organizationaldesign options, and outreach strategy. It will conclude itsmandateattheendof2012.In2013,FutureEarthwillstartoperations, with an interim Governing Council setting itsstrategicdirection,andaScientificCommitteeshapingitsre-search agenda. By integrating across disciplines and sectors,Future Earth research will answer fundamental questionsabouthowandwhytheglobalenvironmentischanging;whatare likely future changes; what the implications are for thewellbeingofhumansandotherspecies;whatchoicescanbemadetoenhanceresilience,createpositivefutures,andreduceharmfulrisksandvulnerabilities;andhowthisknowledgecansupportpolicydecisionsandsustainabledevelopment.

Toco-designtheFutureEarthresearchagenda,therewillbefurtherconsultations,in2012andbeyond,withtheglobalen-vironmentalchangeresearchcommunityandotherstakehold-ers.Representativesof existingglobal environmental changeprojectshavebeeninvitedtoprovideinputontheinitialdraftresearchframeworkinthecomingweeks.Anonlineconsulta-tion will be launched in the coming months to extend thescopeofconsultationanddialoguethatisanintegralpartofFutureEarth.WorkshopswillbeheldinAfrica,Asia,andLat-inAmericabetweenOctoberandDecember2012tobroadenthescopeofco-designtokeystakeholdersintheseregions.

FormoreinformationaboutFutureEarth,pleasevisit:http://www.icsu.org/future-earth.

Future Earth – Research for Global Sustainability

Roberta Quadrelli1 and Maria Uhle2

1International Council for Science, Paris, France; 2National Sci-ence Foundation, Arlington, Virginia, USA

UnveiledinMarch2012at“PlanetUnderPressure,”amajorscientificconferenceorganizedinLondonbytheglobalen-vironmentalchangeprogramsandtheInternationalCouncilforScience(ICSU),FutureEarth,anew10-yearinternationalinitiativeonglobalenvironmentalresearchforsustainability,waslaunchedattheForumonScience,TechnologyandIn-novation for Sustainable Development in Rio De Janeiro,Brazil on 14 June 2012 (http://www.icsu.org/news-centre/rio20/science-and-technology-forum),andshortlyafterwardataverywell-attendedsideeventoftheRio+20UnitedNationsConference on Sustainable Development (http://www.icsu.org/future-earth/whats-new/events/future-earth-at-riocentro).Future Earth will provide a cutting-edge platform to coor-dinate scientific research that is designed and produced inpartnershipwithgovernments,business,and,morebroadly,society.TheinitiativeisscientificallysponsoredbyanAllianceofpartners,includingICSU,theInternationalSocialScienceCouncil (ISSC), the Belmont Forum of funding agencies,theUnitedNationsUniversity(UNU),theUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP),andtheUnitedNationsEducational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNES-CO),withtheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)asobserver.

Future Earth is the fruit of a series of consultations onpriorities for global environmental change research con-ducted by partners of the Alliance. One of these, the2-year ICSU-ISSC Earth System Visioning, which con-cluded in 2011, identified the Grand Challenges for EarthSystem Science for Global Sustainability (see: http://www.icsu.org/news-centre/press-releases/2010/scientific-grandchallenges-identified-to-address-global-sustainability/scientific-grand-challenges-identified-to-address-global-sustainability)andrecommended a new overarching institutional structure topromotemoreeffectiveinterdisciplinaryresearch.FutureEarthwas thenapprovedasanewinterdisciplinarybodybyICSUmembersattheir30thGeneralAssemblyinSeptember2011.

TheinitiativewillbuilduponthestrengthsofexistingICSUco-sponsored global environmental change programs, theirEarthSystemSciencePartnership(ESSP),andtheirprojects,byintegratingtheiractivitiesandalsoattractingnewcapac-ity.Threeoftheprograms[DIVERSITAS,theInternationalGeosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), and the Interna-tional Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP)] have sig-naledtheirwillingnesstomergeintoanewsingleorganiza-tion.TheWorldClimateResearchProgramme(WCRP)willbeanindependentpartner,supportingFutureEarthstrategi-callyandintellectually.

GEWEX NEWS

Published by the International GEWEX Project Office

Peter J. van Oevelen, DirectorDawn P. Erlich, Editor

Shannon F. Macken, Assistant Editor

International GEWEX Project Office8403 Colesville Rd, Suite 1550Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA

Tel: 1-240-485-1855 Fax: 1-240-485-1818

E-mail: [email protected]: http://www.gewex.org

GEWEX/WCRP Calendar See the GEWEX website at:

http://www.gewex.org/

newsvol. 22, no. 3 august 2012 news global energy and water exchanges gewex is now “global energy...

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