news letter 19 sep 2015

Cni Research Limited www.cniglobalbiz.com 1

CNI Publications; Weekly Plattern Weekly summary

One more... Major move announced by the govt, a change from the past,in the oil and gas sector. 42 fields will be auctioned in all,27 in Bombay High and 15 in KG Basin. Here only royalty will need to be paid and no profit sharing contract will need to be entered. I think the PM is finding his bearings and setting out to do what was to be done in the first place. Am sure he will not rest with such one off,as we have been saying a strong of such announcements are in the offing. Silly as it may sound everyone is waiting for the Fed. Am actually Fed up. What is the big deal about. If he has to increase now or three months later. If she does it now the uncertainty will be over. The markets will begin afresh. China is still a house divided. In the sense there are as many who say needs to correct a great deal more as there are who feel enough is enough. So an interesting battle on cards. I would vote for better days two months from now. Europe is too busy trying to figure out what to do with the migrants who are pouring over porous borders. Sad as it is but is the economy there prepared to bear the costs of these migrants? Subsidies et al. A difficult call,once again. So what now...better to buy when everyone is in limbo as if the herd starts buying we would end up chasing stocks. Indications of another bull rain in the offing as we had mentioned in our previous note,sceptics abound. This makes us more confident of an unprecedented boom and I don't think we are prepared for that. Gear up,buy and enjoy the ride,off course corrections will come and go. Hold on buy the dips and the rewards will be yours.

Change of the week

18-Sep-15 Rise /Gain

Sensex 26218

Nifty 7981

FII DII 14- Aug-15 136.1 183.9

15- Sep -15 3123.6 480.5

16- Sep -15 (214.0) 423.8

18- Sep -15 643.5 415.0

Total 3689.2 1503.2

Turnover (` Cr)

FII DII Combined

18-Sep-15 44412.8 9755.0 54,167.9

18-Sep-15 Advances Declines Ratio

999 421 2.37

Editorial Vol -1, No-I, 18 Sep, 2015, 09 pages

1017

331

http://www.cniglobalbiz.com


Check,mate... CPI,no not the political party,but Consumer Price Inflation came in low at 3.66% previous month was 3.69%. WPI came in at negative 4.95%. Tenth month in a row. Prospects of lower inflation in months to follow very likely. Growth continues to remain muted. Corporate captains clamouring for a rate cut. Banking czars too rooting for the same. The Guv is made of different mettle or so it seems. He is like that umpire who,despite near desperate pleas, remains unmoved. Only time will tell who is right and who isn't. According to me he should have reduced it by at least 50 bps but then when he doesn't listen to the high and mighty,I am but a fly in the ointment. All eyes are on Fed. Else how would one justify all the costs that are paid to the Fed watchers,economists and analysts. So it has become almost a necessity to have this high drama every 45 days and all the days in between. After the announcements pronouncements on body language and undertone are talked about. Meanings are read and deciphered by reading between the lines. If the Fed is to increase rates it doesn't matter if it is now or in December. Yes if they decide to postpone it by say six months some markets may have a sigh of relief. China markets are not settled yet. But somehow by end of day manage to close in green or just about. This barring the last three trading days. Too much noise and hulla baloo. Wait for things to settle down and then take a considered decision. Difficult to overlook a behemoth like China. For the first time yday fii figures were positive,a wee bit but a beginning. Although one swallow does not make a spring...this is certainly good News that the selling has abated. The selling figures were also tapering down and hence this is heartening. A lot of the froth is off and if the govt continues what it has been doing over the past week,ie reformist announcements,then yes we are in the cusp of a mother of all bull runs. When the world is grappling for growth India will standalone as a knight in shining armor amidst the ruins. Europe could be the other shining star.

If your checks are resulting in placing ticks in all the appropriate boxes pointing to a buy India, then what are you waiting for mate? 5 Top Gainer Stock 18-Sep-15 14-Sep-15 % Gain MANAP FIN 25.0 21.5 16.5

JUST DIAL 933.7 816.3 14.3

BALRAM CHINI 50.4 44.6 12.8

GODREJ PROP 323.3 287.4 12.4

OBERIO REAL 258.6 231.2 11.8 5 Top Losers Stock 18-Sep-15 14-Sep-15 % Loss SUN ASIAN 114.7 140.6 18.4

SKS MICRO 380.6 455.8 16.5

RAJESH EXP 405.4 461.7 12.1

EMAMI LTD 1093.4 1219 10.3

BHARAT FORGE 924.1 1027.8 10.0

Top 5 Picks By CNI 'A' Group

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NUTRAPLUS

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It isn't a flash in the pan... The govt is moving and with apparent sincerity. After the 2 oil and gas announcements, freeing it from shackles, the govt is now looking to tackle the problems of discoms in various states. Half of all bank npas are on account of problems with state electricity boards and dysfunctional power problems. If this is suitably addressed it will be a big feather in the Govt's cap. The power minister and the PM are both seized of the matter and are already looking into the matter in great detail. The bids for gas allocation from imported gas have already been called for. Run down PSU banks will be the most sought after stocks once this sees light of the day. Global markets are rallying post US markets ran up. Almost as if they have read the tea leaves and decided the Fed is not raising rates. The costs of the error of not increasing rates is far lower than cost of error after increasing rates. Meaning in case the economy were to tip into recession post an increase in rates it would be a herculean task to get the economy back on an even keel. At best Ms. Yellen's commentary will, if she does not increase rates, carry a hawkish message of interest raising soon. Currently conditions are not conducive to an increase and it will be better to delay it slightly. USD will take a hit as longs will unwind and shift to other currencies. Euro may rally pushing funds into metals and other riskier markets. As said in earlier pieces, china's story is still limbo. The jury us still out as doubts persist whether to buy now or wait. Best to let the dust settles but certainly not the time to sell. Eurozone once again will face the stress, this time, of refugees. Else it looked like a good story. Here one can buy the dips. Wonder when the FIIs will see the light and smell the coffee either is good enough. They must look at India with a new spectrum and give the same respect they did when the new govt was formed. This one has started slowly but it will be difficult to control once the momentum gathers pace. Best to keep accumulating beaten down but sound stocks. Infra, metals, power, PSU banks and realty stocks have been given the short shrift...time to capitalise on this anomaly. Buy India Last 2 weeks I was feeling so sorry when all media were kept on saying this is sell on rally market and Nifty will test 7200. First they gave 7750 stop loss and then raised 7850 stop loss then 8000 and now 8200. Do not you think that media has become puppet of market makers....? They want to teach you what market drivers wants.....? I was common sense that FED rate was never an issue. In fact, DOW fell yesterday because lot of investors did not like FED keeping it neutral. Off Course DOW will rally today in a big way for sure to give excellent Friday closing. This is not my judgement but many times INDIA reacts first then US and today INDIAN markets rallied hence DOW too will rally. IN INDIA game was done once again. Retail kept on selling believing the media and market drivers and short trapped at 7700 and below. ( Nifty minus premium ). Now suddenly you will realise only 4 days left and traders will rush for cutting their short till 8200 in the expiry. With low inflation RBI has to cut rate this time. Rate cut event will fall in next settlement hence no one will carry short positions on 28th. Therefore I feel we can see 8300 or 8400 in next FRIDAY and if this happens we will test 9000 in OCT itself. Historically we have seen when market falls it falls 10% and when rises it rises 10%. From 7700 10% becomes 8400 plus.....



We at CNI kept on telling buy dips because we are in bull market. We succeeded. We will ask our members to remain muted to media stories and market drivers call. CNI is good enough to take of you all though we cannot control the timings which is wholly dependent on the market drivers. Let the policy makers bring in physical settlement as there in the global markets we will show you the power of common man and small investors. ASSETS class makes the difference. We recently met an INDUSTRIALIST.... asked him to invest Rs 100 crs what he said grasp it.... "I am ready to invest upto Rs 5000 crs provided I get some interest on my investment irrespective ups and down in the share price" e g if I invest Rs 5000 crs in 10 stocks say one of it is SBI at 250 and share prices becomes Rs 150 still I am not bothered because i am getting 12 to 18% interest ( in case of physical settlement) which will protect my losses. Stock prices will bounce say after 12 or 18 months back to Rs 300 and I can always book profit. This is what required and will create good platform. Sooner the better for the policy makers to take into account. This will convert 32% idle savings in assets class and INDIA will be less dependent on the FII.



Next Week’s Events

GLOBAL STORY US market did not accept the no rate hike by FED and fell for 2 consecutive days though there is no much downside. The rationale applied by market players there seems that the uncertainty over rate hike will get extended by a quarter. At the same time some even fear that FED action also suggest about their concern of CHINA market.

We have already expressed our view on CHINA. CHINA bubble was known for many years which we had told you time and again even before the bubble got burst. But there is always a tendency to react too sharply when event happens. e g US housing bubble was in talks from JAN 2008 but the impact came and reaction ( too sharp ) came only after LEHMAN has happened in OCT 2008. This happens because there is one element HEDGE FUND which take aggressive bets on any country for 10 to 20 returns and their exposure generally ranks highest. Their exit and speed too surprises street. This is what happened in 2008 OCT and again in Sept 2015.

All the global markets are interconnected. If US falls the redemption pressure mounts on EM as well as other global markets. Therefore there will always be flight of capital for which market is never prepared. Some markets like US and China have market stabilisation fund yet these markets too give up when the exit pressure mounts.

We call this as TSUNAMI. Post tsunami reconstruction starts. US and China did see TSUNAMI due to debt issue in US and China slow growth and NPA bubble. India too was affected due to the global redemption.

Apart from these global issues INDIA was soft target of physical settlement hence even after CNINA and US fall INDIA kept on rising. Next 4 days we believe market will rise even though the movement will be volatile. Rate cut hopes will drive market till 29th.

Indian markets were desiring a good correction and it came and hence doors of new high are already opened. We expect Nifty to test 9700. The other factors were already discussed hence we are not repeating.

Monday, 21-Sep-2015

4-Week Bill Announcement 3-Month Bill Auction

Tuesday,22-Sep-2015

Retail Sales Industrial Production

Wednesday,23-Sep-2015

Consumer Price Index Housing Market Index

Thursday,24-Sep-2015

Housing Starts Jobless Claim

Friday, 25-Sep-2015

Leading Indicators



Global Indices Country Indices Date Index Net Change Change

Hong Kong Hang Seng 19/09 21,920.83 +66.20 +0.30

Singapore Straits Times 19/09 2,879.59 -16.22 -0.56

United States NASDAQ 19/09 4,827.23 -66.72 -1.36

United States DJIA 19/09 16,384.58 -290.16 -1.74

United States S&P 500 19/09 1,958.03 -32.17 -1.62

Japan Nikkei 225 19/09 18,070.21 -362.06 -1.96

United Kingdom FTSE 100 19/09 6,104.11 -82.88 -1.34

Malaysia KLSE Composite 19/09 1,669.45 -12.09 -0.72

Indonesia Jakarta Composite 19/09 4,380.32 +1.94 +0.04

Thailand SET 19/09 1,390.32 +0.62 +0.04

France CAC 40 19/09 4,535.85 -119.29 -2.56

Germany DAX 19/09 9,916.16 -313.42 -3.06

Argentina MerVal 19/09 10,555.28 -244.99 -2.27

Brazil Bovespa 19/09 47,264.08 -1,287.00 -2.65

Mexico IPC 19/09 43,565.05 -225.88 -0.52

Austria ATX 19/09 2,240.83 -49.60 -2.17

Belgium BEL-20 19/09 3,418.37 -48.59 -1.40

Netherlands AEX General 19/09 427.32 -10.31 -2.36

Spain Madrid General 19/09 995.36 -25.67 -2.51

Switzerland Swiss Market 19/09 8,739.22 -110.21 -1.25

Australia All Ordinaries 19/09 5,194.30 +23.15 +0.45

China Shanghai Composite 19/09 3,097.92 +11.86 +0.38

Philippines PSE Composite 19/09 7,131.91 +7.92 +0.11

Sri Lanka All Share 19/09 7,107.87 -5.64 -0.08

Taiwan Taiwan Weighted 19/09 8,462.14 +16.64 +0.20

East Egypt CMA 19/09 1,392.03 -1.40 -0.10



Bulk deal Company Name Date BSE Code Client Name Deal Type Quantity Price (Rs)

AFEL 18-Sep-15 538351 T R METAL S 25000 126.8

AFEL 18-Sep-15 538351 RAJESH S S 20161 126.8

AFEL 18-Sep-15 538351 RAJESH S B 11396 126.8

AFEL 18-Sep-15 538351 SHIVESH S 32628 126.8

AFEL 18-Sep-15 538351 SHIVESH B 32504 126.8

BRUSHMAN 18-Sep-15 590061 SHAILENDR B 57705 0.42

DONEAR 18-Sep-15 512519 LOTUS GLO S 559125 14.5

OONE 18-Sep-15 535657 HARISHKUM S 110750 8.93

OONE 18-Sep-15 535657 HARISHKUM B 110750 8.93

OONE 18-Sep-15 535657 JAINESH S B 87580 8.97

Ucal Fuel 18-Sep-15 UCALFUEL CARBURETT B 500000 94

Ucal Fuel 18-Sep-15 UCALFUEL MINICA RE S 500000 94

ABG Shipy 16-Sep-15 ABGSHIP STRATEGIC B 370202 157

ABG Shipy 16-Sep-15 ABGSHIP STRATEGIC B 370202 157.25

AmtekAuto 16-Sep-15 AMTEKAUTO GENUINE S B 1954097 48.85

AmtekAuto 16-Sep-15 AMTEKAUTO N.K. SECU B 1214382 48.28

AmtekAuto 16-Sep-15 AMTEKAUTO GENUINE S B 1954097 49

AmtekAuto 16-Sep-15 AMTEKAUTO N.K. SECU B 1214382 48

AmtekAuto 16-Sep-15 AMTEKAUTO GENUINE S S 1954097 49

TVS Motor 16-Sep-15 TVSMOTOR TVS MOTOR S 2375500 231

TVS Motor 16-Sep-15 TVSMOTOR TVS MOTOR S 2375500 231

AmtekAuto-Roll Sett 15-Sep-15 AMTEKAUTO GENUINE STOCK BROKER B 1721585 53.37

AmtekAuto-Roll Sett 15-Sep-15 AMTEKAUTO SHAASTRA SECURITIES B 1291960 53.11

AmtekAuto-Roll Sett 15-Sep-15 AMTEKAUTO GENUINE STOCK BROKER S 1721585 53.38

AmtekAuto-Roll Sett 15-Sep-15 AMTEKAUTO SHAASTRA SECURITIES S 1291960 53.13

Lycos Internet Limited 15-Sep-15 LYCOS QUANT CAPITAL HOLDIN B 2500000 24.61

Lycos Internet Limited 15-Sep-15 LYCOS QUANT S 2500000 24.61



Call put option Option Month - PUT CALL

Strike Price Volume Best Buy

Best Sell

LTP OI Change OI(%)

Volume Best Buy

Best Sell

LTP OI Change OI(%)

September - 7600.00 11204425 8.1 8.3 8.1 3995600 -6.62 496750 366 368.2 366 601350 -32.3

September - 7650.00 338625 10.3 11.5 11.15 119800 14.83 9225 285.1 330.3 323.05 51075 -5.59

September - 7700.00 14123425 14.3 14.9 14.85 3154025 -1.16 1122200 274.5 277.55 274.5 1367150 -11.01

September - 7750.00 519975 16.2 20 20 137200 32.56 45400 212.85 240.65 230 28750 -23.08

September - 7800.00 21888075 27 27.15 27 4891100 -3.73 3855675 183.7 186.5 183.7 2632325 -26.93

September - 7850.00 2536975 37.5 38.7 38.3 507800 87.1 229225 150 155 150 132250 -39.25

September - 7900.00 27905450 52 52.9 52 2827825 17.93 9418200 111.4 112.25 112.25 2208450 -32.35

September - 7950.00 1771325 69.3 71.25 72 338500 695.07 550800 76 85 79 118600 -15.83

September - 8000.00 25154775 94.4 94.75 94.4 3776875 23.94 28354275 56 57 57 3333325 -23.53

September - 8050.00 410200 121.45 122.35 122.35 112500 551.23 1743600 36.25 37.7 37 318875 90.89

September - 8100.00 5530175 158.55 159.95 162 1237000 12.65 28044775 22.6 23 23 3264600 -17.59

September - 8150.00 31050 194.95 199.9 195.95 24900 356.88 1996850 13.45 14.45 14.15 404075 19.66

September - 8200.00 1217700 242.25 246.15 243 1446575 1.14 22892075 8.15 8.25 8.25 3647025 -22.13

September - 8250.00 12325 267.6 304.4 275.4 15425 -7.08 1064650 4.6 5.3 4.8 260050 87.25

September - 8300.00 299475 336.2 339.5 338 643175 -10.14 14965225 3.3 3.4 3.3 2903025 -14.31

September - 8350.00 375 366.6 390 334.5 1825 5.8 372325 2.3 2.5 2.3 131475 71.41

September - 8400.00 108850 430 437.45 429.95 675225 -4.34 6197850 1.8 1.95 1.8 2913825 -0.45

September - 8450.00 50 375.05 644.85 450 1600 3.23 77675 1.65 2.25 2 59250 79.14

September - 8500.00 185425 527.45 531.25 528.6 588975 -16.22 3045900 1.35 1.4 1.4 3460825 -10.1

September - 8550.00 0 410 761.25 799.8 5850 0 4900 0.75 1.3 0.8 28700 -7.42

September - 8600.00 48200 627.25 629.75 628.3 238750 -13.56 709000 1.15 1.25 1.15 1345125 -8.82

September - 8650.00 0 490.55 865 660 50 0 75 0.3 1.5 0.4 24925 -0.3

September - 8700.00 24275 726.1 730 725 157950 -10.67 371400 0.55 0.6 0.55 1510825 -0.59



DISCLAIMER STATEMENT

This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, and nothing in this document is solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. The intent of this document is not in recommender nature. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Neither the Firm nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Copyright in this document vests exclusively with CNI Research Ltd.

Name of Editor: Minit jhaveri

Publisher: Mr. Kishor Ostwal 120, Gokul Arcade, Sahar Road, Vile Parle (East), Mumbai-400057 Tel No: 022-28220323/28383889, Fax No: +91-22-28242220 E-Mail at: [email protected]

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news letter 19 sep 2015

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