news from the new numbers ten trends for 2020 october 4, 2011 washington, dc brad edmondson
TRANSCRIPT
News From The New NumbersTen Trends For 2020
October 4, 2011 Washington, DCBrad Edmondson
www.bradedmondson.com
April 1, 2010: 308, 745, 538
• Now 312.3 million, adding 7,200 a day• 27 million more than 2000 (<1% a year)• 75 million children (<18)• 115 million young adults (18-44)• 78 million baby boomers (45-64)• 40 million older adults (65+)• 53% of growth in TX, CA, FL, GA, NC, & AZ
The Cultural Pie, 2010
50.7
196.9
37.9
14.69.2
Population by racial and ethnic categories in millions, 2010
Hispanic"White"BlackAsianTwo races/other
1. Growth equals Hispanics
51%
17%
13%
13%
6%
Percentage of growth by racial and ethnic groups, 2000-10)
Hispanic"White"BlackAsianTwo races/ other
2. The rise of Latino citizens
• The next America• Mexican immigration, 2000-2010: 4.2 million• Mexican American births: 7.2 million• How to become “white”
3. Multiracial affluence
Asian NH White Native-born Hispanic
Other race Foreign-born Hispanic
Black
$69,500
$55,000
$44,000 $42,400
$37,200 $33,500
Median household income for racial & ethnic groups, 2009
How ethnic foods go mainstream(Lars Perner, University of Southern California)
4. Hard times for the youngPercent change in median household income by age of householder, adjusted for inflation, 1990-2010
1990-00 2000-10
-25%
0%
25%21%
-20%
15%
-11%
9%
-9%
8%
-14%
9%
0%
9%
12%12%
6%
15-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465-7475+2
5. Getting serious about saving
• Young people are:• --Abandoning marriage• --Driving less• --Doing it themselves• --Eating less meat• --Supercouponing
6. Childhood is changing
Percent of US children whose families are• Nonwhite or Hispanic: 43%• Unmarried households: 31%• Getting by or better: 54%• Able to save for college: 36%
Why boomers still ruleUS birth rate, 1909-2004. Source: NCHS Division of Vital Statistics
Boom, bust, and boomletUS population by single year of age, 2011: 0-18 gray (unnamed), 19-32 green (Millennial), 33-45 yellow (baby bust), 46-65 red (baby
boom), 66-80 blue (swing), 81-plus rose (WWII)
7. An aging populationProjected percent change in population by age groups, 2010-2020
Source: Census Bureau
Series10%
40%
4%6%
3%
35%
<25 25 to 44 45 to 64 65+
The Good YearsMedian household income by age of householder, 2010
Series1$0
$70,000
$28,300
$50,000
$61,600 $62,500
$56,600
$39,700
$25,300
15-2425-3435-4445-5455-6465-7475+
8. Boomers are buckling downPercent change in median household income by age of householder, 2000-2010
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
-20%
-11% -9%
-14%
0%
12%
6%
And the winners are…Median adjusted household income by sex and marital status, 1970-2007
1970 2007$0
$80,000
$45,785
$74,642
married men married women
unmarried men unmarried women
9. What AARP won’t tell you
• Retirement is not a nice word• Boomers are working longer• Those who can retire don’t want to• Convenience food for 60+ workers
10. Still the golden yearsPercent change in median household income by age of householder, 2000-2010
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
-20%
-11% -9%
-14%
0%
12%
6%
Still spending: aged 65 to 74Index of spending on selected products for householders aged 65 to 74, 2009
• Drugs (178%)
• Medical supplies (152%)
• Personal care (101%)
• Reading (140%) & stationery (118%)
• Housewares (130%)
• Housekeeping supplies (117%)
• Beef (109%) & seafood (113%)
• Pets, toys, & hobbies (112%)
• Fresh produce (104%)
Still spending: 75 & olderIndex of spending on selected products for householders aged 75+, 2009
• Drugs (162%)
• Medical supplies (133%)
• Personal care (77%)
• Reading (122%) & stationery (116%)
• Housekeeping supplies (89%)
• Fruits and vegetables (83%)
• Cereal and bakery (82%)
Uncharted TerritoryProjected population aged 75 and older, 2010-2050, in millions
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.00
60.00
18.80
22.50
33.30
44.30
48.40
Wisdom from elderly pioneers
• Kitchen workarounds• High tech memory aids• Low-tech bionic aids• Social media
Summary: youth• Hispanics & Asians are driving growth• Hispanic births outnumber immigration• Multicultural affluence & influence• Young adults are much poorer• Serious savings strategies• Most parents are pinched
Summary: Boomers & beyond
• Rapid growth in store among 65+• Boomers’ free spending days are over• The new royalty: dual-earner professionals• Boomers will retire much later• 65+ householders have escaped the recession• 75+ householders are a brand new market
Summary