new training course on use of nwp in forecast operations
DESCRIPTION
New Training Course on Use of NWP in Forecast Operations. William R. Bua Stephen D. Jascourt* UCAR/COMET *presenter. Outline. Existing COMET NWP Training NWP Training Needs for Forecasters Course Design Course Content Overview Conclusion. Existing COMET NWP Training. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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New Training Course on Use of NWP in Forecast Operations
William R. BuaStephen D. Jascourt*
UCAR/COMET*presenter
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Outline
1. Existing COMET NWP Training2. NWP Training Needs for Forecasters3. Course Design4. Course Content Overview5. Conclusion
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Existing COMET NWP TrainingOriented toward operational forecasterFree, publicly available: www.meted.ucar.edu
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Existing COMET NWP TrainingOriented toward operational forecasterFree, publicly available: www.meted.ucar.edu
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Existing COMET NWP TrainingOriented toward operational forecasterFree, publicly available: www.meted.ucar.edu• Course on fundamentals of NWP (1999-2000)• Reference matrix on current models
– parameterizations, terrain, layers, assimilated data, …– ensemble configurations
• Modules (NAM-WRF, ensemble basics, RTMA, etc.)• Mini-cases (mostly old)• VISITview Teletraining archives
Focus mostly model concepts and specific modelsNeed more on use in forecast context
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NWP Training Needs for Forecasters Survey (JP4.5) of NWS SOOs and Scientific Service Divisions
Identified 4 main categories:• Forecast process (pay attention to observations, analyze/think!)• Core model topics (bias, diagostics, what’s in the model, etc..)• Uncertainty/probabilistic (focusing heavily on use of ensembles)• Local-scale forecasting (high-resolution models, downscaling, etc.)
Identified priority topics:• Using NWP to assess forecast uncertainty, probabilistic NWP• Using NWP for mesoscale prediction• Using NWP in preparing 5-km and 2.5-km forecast grids
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Course DesignDesign: ~ NWS/WDTB Advanced Warning Operations Course
• 1-page consolidated user interface• Subject Matter Experts content and organization• Individual lessons grouped into units• Practical application on Weather Event Simulator (WDTB help)• Quiz for credit: each lesson, certificate upon completing a unit
Instructional Designers: Lessons = Lectures
1) Update old course2) Continue providing model-specific information3) New units on use of NWP in forecast process
New Course
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Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
brief
includes updated, trimmed old course 2009
2009
2010
2009
2011+
2010
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Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
brief
includes updated, trimmed old course 20092011+
20092011+
2010
20092011+
2011+
2010
And update
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Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
Model system (generic fundamentals):• Dynamics, terrain, precipitation, radiation, PBL, etc.• Postprocessing• Assimilation• Ensembles
Model matrix – reference look-up informationNew Emerging tools:
• North American Ensemble Forecast System• High-resolution (convection-allowing) models• Bias correction• Downscaling
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Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
Steps in Forecast Process• Preparing to evaluate NWP models and forecast + WES case• Analysis and model initialization + WES case• Determining plausible forecast outcomes + WES case• Optimizing use of model data products + WES case• Understanding the role and use of deterministic vs. probabilistic NWP information + WES case• Recognizing where and when human can add value to NWP + WESSynthesis in WES case
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Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
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Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
NWS gridded forecast production – possible topics:• Starting points• Evaluating model data in the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE)• Downscaling techniques in GFE• Forecast funnel in the NWS forecast environment• Small spatial scales at long time ranges
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Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
Possible topics depending on needs, technology in forecast office:• When data flow changes from push to pull: which data to select?• Quick assessment of model data: wading through data spigot• 3-d visualization of model data • Interpreting environmental forecasts, not just weather
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Course Content OverviewUnit 1: Orientation
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
Content Trimming PrincipleCould it affect a forecaster’s decision?
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Conclusion
New COMET distance-learning NWP Course:• Collaborative effort with SOOs and other NWS experts• Update + shorten course on NWP basics/fundamentals• Continue updating information on current models• Focus new content on context in forecast process• Interactive, not lectures• Limit content to what forecaster will actually use