new southern sky conference 2018 the iata perspective on ... · amhs, vsat, aidc, lte, vhf voice,...
TRANSCRIPT
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New Southern Sky Conference 2018 Auckland, 15-16 May 2018
The IATA Perspective on the GANP
Blair Cowles
Regional Director – Safety and Flight Operations
Asia Pacific
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Global, Regional, Local
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Global, Regional, Local
Global
• Economic Overview
Regional
• Asia Pacific Seamless Airspace Plan
Local
• IATA position on certain components of New
Southern Sky
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City-pair connections exceed 20,000 this year
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
US$
/RTK
in 2
014
US$
Nu
mb
er o
f u
niq
ue
city
-pai
rs
Unique city-pairs and real transport costs
Unique city pairs
Real cost of air transport
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Boosting trade and tourism
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Trad
ed g
oo
ds,
US$
tri
llio
n
Tou
rist
sp
end
, US$
bill
ion
Value of trade carried by air and the spending of tourists
Value of traded goods carried by air
Spending by tourists carried by air
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Air travel cycles have typically ended after 8 years
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Worldwide RPK cycles, indexed to low point
1982-91
1991-01
2001-09
2009-
WE ARE HERE IN 2017
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Strong GDP growth extends this air travel cycle further
-5-4-3-2-10123456789101112131415
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
% c
han
ge o
ver
pre
vio
us
year
% c
han
ge o
ver
pre
vio
us
year
Worldwide RPK growth and GDP growth
Worldwide RPK growth
World GDP growth
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Rising costs are the biggest challenge
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% c
han
ge o
ver
pre
vio
us
year
US$
per
bar
rel
Jet fuel price and growth in unit costs
Unit cost growth
Jet fuel price
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A further year of solid profits forecast for 2018
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
US
$ b
illio
n
% r
even
ue
s
Global commercial airline profitability
Net post-tax profits
EBIT margin
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Regional performance still differs but some convergence
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
N America Asia Pacific Europe L America Middle East Africa
% r
even
ues
EBIT margin by airline region of registration
2016 2017 2018
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Agreed by all States
Very slow implementation
Mixed capability = mixed implementation success
Service defaults to lowest common denominator
Seamless ATM Plan = the regional blueprint
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E•qui•lib•ri•umto achieve
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It means striking the right balance between the needs of Service
Providers and Airspace Users, including:
Safety – as the foremost priority!
Regulation and legislation
Future investment plans and operational strategies
…in order to:
Prioritize investments to ensure safety and capacity
Support strategic objectives
Improve and support the international and domestic aviation sectors, and
Enhance understanding of CAPEX and OPEX plans
What does it mean?
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Value of Aviation:
The Value of Aviation for a country can
amount to 100’s of millions of dollars per
year
This is a significant % of a Nation’s GDP
It includes jobs generated from the direct,
indirect and induced benefits of tourism
spending, infrastructure investment and
trade
Why is it worthwhile?
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Communications
Navigation
Surveillance
Air Traffic Management
Airport Development
Most elements have a direct
impact on airline and ANSP
costs
ATM InfrastructureServices or Systems necessary for Air Traffic Services
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The objective is to balance costs by identifying the need
for, and timing of:
Capital expenditure projects and operational costs
Cost of capital and depreciation of assets
…by taking into account such things as
Airline fleets and operational plans
Traffic volumes, and
Airport capacities and expansion plans
Identifying best balances
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Any investment in change, either as a capital project
(CAPEX) or an operational initiative (OPEX), should
be driven by one or more of the following objectives:
Enhance safety
Provide a tangible benefit to the airline in the form
of efficiency or fuel savings
Provide a tangible cost saving to the State or
ANSP
…so what are the airlines’ needs?
17
Benefits
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Airlines should be able to use current on-
board equipage and have a return on their
investment
Furthermore, the introduction of any new
capability or operational improvement,
should follow the principal of Most Capable
Best Served for service priority
Communication
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IATA supports:
AMHS, VSAT, AIDC, LTE, VHF Voice, HF
Voice*, SATVOICE, CPDLC, VDL Mode 2, ATN
IPS, Digital-ATIS, AWOS
Maintain:
AFTN, VDL Mode 0 / ACARS
IATA doesn’t support:
VDL Mode 3 or 4
Communication
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IATA and airlines support a priority
implementation of GNSS as the primary
means of navigation and the main enabler
of PBN
Airlines have invested heavily in modern
on-board avionics, yet ground infrastructure
and procedures in many locations are not
evolving
Navigation
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Globally still have a significant number of
non-precision NDBs and VORs
Many air-routes still designed on ground-
based NAVAIDs
Non-precision approaches can be readily
improved by the introduction of GNSS-
based RNP APCH procedures with Baro-
VNAV
Navigation
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IATA supports:
PBN, WGS-84, ILS, GNSS, ABAS, GBAS
Maintain:
DME, VOR
IATA doesn’t support:
NDB, TACAN, MLS
Neutral:
SBAS*
Navigation
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Any surveillance technology should be
agreed upon collaboratively between the
ANSP and airlines
An operational improvement must be
identified, and then technology chosen in
consultation with the airlines based on a
positive cost-benefit analysis
Surveillance
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Unnecessary overlapping of surveillance
coverage is discouraged
Particularly, any ADS-B implementation
should not retain overlapping radars
Surveillance
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IATA supports:
SSR Mode S, ADS-C, ADS-B Out, SB ADS-B
Maintain:
SSR Mode A/C
IATA doesn’t support:
PSR, PAR, TIS-B
Neutral:
MLAT
Surveillance
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Air Traffic Management (ATM)
ATM Automation System
Air Traffic Flow Management (ATFM)
UPRs, CDAs, RNP APCH
Collaborative Decision Making (CDM)
Airport-CDM (A-CDM)
System Wide Information Management
(SWIM)
Operational considerations
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27
A robust national airspace planning process results in a
balance of benefits for service providers and customers:
It promotes transparency for improving safety and
efficiency
Consultation allows the service provider to better
understand future capability of the airlines
Service providers can assess and recoup relevant costs
It promotes effective financial planning for all
stakeholders
The End Result
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Thank You