new noaa / nws space weather prediction center - operational dst … · 2015. 1. 2. · geomagnetic...

W . K . T O B I S K A , D . K N I P P , D . B O U W E R , R . S H E L L E Y , J . B A I L E Y , B . B U R K E , P . H A G A N , D . O D S T R C I L , J . L O V E , J . G A N N O N , P .

F R I B E R G , V . E C C L E S , B . S C H U N K , D . I N T R I L I G A T O R , M . H E S S E , M . K U Z N E T S O V A , R . M O R R I S , R . Q U I N N , S . O ’ M A L L E Y , A N D B .

B O W M A N

Operational Dst from real-time data streams and forecast

algorithms

Anemomilos SET

Geomagnetic Space Weather Affects Technology

o Satellite drag

o Power grid GIC

o Aviation radiation

o GPS position accuracy

o Communication outages

o Satellite surface charging

1/2/2015

OPERATIONAL DST

Turning Measurements into Useful Products

Real-time Dst: operational data is now being produced by several institutions

Forecast Dst: operational algorithms (prime/stream A and redundant/stream B) now being tested

Distributed Network: Real-time and forecast Dst is collected/produced/delivered via a distributed network to provide end-user content (a supply chain)

Satellite Drag End Product: Dst is an input into JB2008 thermospheric density model used for operational satellite drag calculations

1/2/2015 http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~maps/ SWW

OPERATIONAL DST

JB2008 – operational densities Solar irradiances Solar wind/magnetosphere

geomagnetic ring current index for satellite drag thermosphere densities

photospheric, chromospheric, coronal solar indices for satellite

drag thermosphere densities


OPERATIONAL DST

http://sol.spacenvironment.net/~maps/ SWW 1/2/2015

Operational Dst goals

OPERATIONAL DST

USGS • uses up to 4 magnetic observatories (HER, SJN, HON, KAK) • produces 1-minute Dst

SEC • uses up to 4 magnetic observatories (HER, SJN, HON, GUA) • produces 1-hour Dst

Real-time operational Dst


OPERATIONAL DST

Kyoto • uses up to 4 magnetic observatories (HER, SJN, HON, KAK) • produces 1-hour Dst

AER & SET DMSP • uses SSM data from 2-4 DMSP satellites • produces 1-hour Dst



http://www.aer.com/Dst

OPERATIONAL DST

CCMC • uses SWMF and Fok Ring Current • produces 1-minute Dst



Other sources • Rice, UCB, Berkeley, … • produce 1-hour Dst

OPERATIONAL DST



OPERATIONAL DST

ENLIL/Cone/WSA o 72-hour forecast of hourly Dst

Carmel Research Center o 1–5 hour forecast of Dst

Dst operational forecasting – Stream A


Actual Dst

Probable Dst

Lower bound

Upper bound

OPERATIONAL DST


ENLIL/Cone/WSA

OPERATIONAL DST


ENLIL/Rope/WSA

OPERATIONAL DST

Anemomilos o Greek word for “windmill” o 6-day forecast of hourly Dst o data-driven deterministic algorithm o uses 3 solar observables to simplify cone & identify events

Dst operational forecasting – Stream B


OPERATIONAL DST


Anemomilos

3 observables needed o ejecta speed o flare location o ejecta quantity (diameter)

Background o ejecta (particles) continually shed from flares o larger ones are CMEs o evidence in coronagraph images

OPERATIONAL DST


Anemomilos

Location of ejecta o flare brightness centroid from SDO/EVE SAM

Quantity of ejecta o individual flare magnitude proxy (Xhf)

OPERATIONAL DST


Anemomilos

How to estimate speed Assume 750 km s-1

Real-time re-analysis ? rate change of brightness of flare Xhf index during the rise to peak ? other proxies

Speed of ejecta o post-analysis time-of-flight speeds used in 2001 & 2005 o NO DIRECT OBSERVABLES OR PROXIES FOUND YET

OPERATIONAL DST


Anemomilos

Relationship between Dst event size, Xhf, and disk longitude

Rate change of flare brightness proxy o use GOES XRS & SDO EVE ESP

No events No events

Small events

Small events

Medium & Large events

OPERATIONAL DST


Jan 15– Jul 17 2001

Mar 01– Sep 27 2005

Mean value ratio of forecast to issued 1-σ ratio of forecast to issued

OPERATIONAL DST

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uz2qe6MIkwo 1/2/2015 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uz2qe6MIkwo

new noaa / nws space weather prediction center - operational dst … · 2015. 1. 2. · geomagnetic...

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