new mexico population projections: assumptions, methods, validation, and results for the data user...
TRANSCRIPT
New Mexico Population Projections: Assumptions, Methods, Validation, and
Results
For the Data User ConferenceGeospatial and Population Studies
University of New MexicoNov. 2013
Method
Using the Census 2010 county level age-sex break-ups as the base year anchor population.
Using NMDOH Birth Records to calculate 5-year average 5-year age group birth rate.
Using NMDOH Death Records to calculate 5-year average single-year ASMR.
Migration from three sources: forward surviving, backward surviving, and IRS tax return exempts.
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Method Summary
Total fertility rate, TFR, is used as the assumption for birth, and is assumed to converge at 2.1 at the end of projection period.
Life expectancy is used to represent the assumption for mortality, and is assumed to converge at national level at the end of projection period.
Migration population is assumed to join and share the same TFR and life expectancy as local people.
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Assumptions
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Migration Method: Forward Surviving
Bernalillo County 556,678 662,564 47,235 4724
Age in years Male
Proportion of Surviving Census Forward Survival Census
2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010Net Migrationx to x+1 px 271,904 324,460 23,0160 - 1 0 0.9908 4035 4213 4391 4374 4624 4711 4954 5055 6631 6460 6158 4,469 -1,6891 - 2 1 0.9997 4025 3998 4174 4351 4334 4582 4668 4909 5009 6570 6401 4,524 -1,8772 - 3 2 0.9996 3854 4024 3997 4173 4349 4332 4580 4666 4907 5007 6568 4,816 -1,7523 - 4 3 0.9996 3704 3853 4022 3995 4171 4348 4331 4578 4665 4905 5005 4,828 -1774 - 5 4 0.9997 3869 3703 3851 4021 3994 4170 4346 4329 4577 4663 4903 4,618 -2855 - 6 5 0.9997 3921 3868 3702 3850 4020 3993 4169 4345 4328 4575 4662 4,487 -175 6 - 7 6 0.9999 3893 3920 3867 3701 3849 4018 3991 4168 4344 4327 4574 4,406 -1687 - 8 7 0.9998 3943 3893 3919 3866 3700 3848 4018 3991 4167 4343 4326 4,477 1518 - 9 8 0.9999 4011 3942 3892 3919 3866 3699 3848 4017 3990 4166 4342 4,541 1999 - 10 9 0.9999 4030 4011 3942 3892 3918 3865 3699 3848 4017 3990 4166 4,607 441
Female 2000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010Net Migrationx to x+1 px 284,774 338,104 24,2200 - 1 0 0.9938 3952 4144 4350 4317 4430 4586 4679 4755 6332 6189 5890 4,293 -1,5971 - 2 1 0.9996 3834 3927 4118 4323 4290 4403 4558 4650 4726 6293 6151 4,397 -1,7542 - 3 2 0.9996 3724 3833 3926 4117 4321 4289 4401 4556 4648 4724 6290 4,500 -1,7903 - 4 3 0.9996 3752 3722 3831 3924 4115 4319 4287 4399 4554 4646 4722 4,462 -2604 - 5 4 0.9998 3817 3751 3721 3829 3923 4113 4318 4285 4397 4552 4644 4,370 -2745 - 6 5 0.9998 3745 3816 3750 3720 3828 3922 4112 4317 4284 4396 4551 4,414 -137 6 - 7 6 0.9999 3833 3744 3815 3749 3719 3828 3921 4111 4316 4283 4395 4,493 987 - 8 7 0.9999 3845 3833 3744 3815 3748 3719 3827 3920 4111 4315 4283 4,462 1798 - 9 8 0.9999 3854 3845 3832 3743 3814 3748 3718 3827 3920 4110 4315 4,401 869 - 10 9 0.9998 3941 3854 3844 3832 3743 3814 3748 3718 3826 3920 4110 4,316 20610 - 11 10 1.0000 3891 3940 3853 3844 3831 3742 3813 3747 3717 3826 3919 4,336 41711 - 12 11 0.9999 3854 3891 3940 3853 3844 3831 3742 3813 3747 3717 3826 4,237 41112 - 13 12 0.9998 3852 3854 3891 3940 3853 3843 3831 3742 3813 3747 3717 4,168 45113 - 14 13 0.9999 3828 3851 3853 3890 3939 3852 3843 3830 3741 3813 3746 4,213 467
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Migration Method: Backward Surviving
Bernalillo County 662,564 556,678 54,970 5497
MaleProportion of Surviving Backward Survival Census
2010 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2000Net Migrationpx 324,460 271,904 26,111
91 0.8549 88 87 95 80 82 89 154 148 184 195 234 138 -5092 0.8402 76 75 75 81 69 70 76 131 126 157 167 99 -2393 0.8194 64 64 63 63 68 58 59 64 110 106 132 63 194 0.8078 53 53 52 52 51 56 47 48 53 90 87 44 995 0.8239 43 43 43 42 42 42 45 38 39 42 73 40 396 0.7766 36 36 35 35 35 35 34 37 31 32 35 22 1497 0.7794 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 29 24 25 22 698 0.7079 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 23 19 7 1599 0.8182 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 10 6
100 0.0000 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 0
2010 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2000Net Migrationpx 338,104 284,774 28,859
89 0.8980 442 382 339 421 428 501 499 533 581 601 683 514 -7290 0.8757 469 396 343 304 378 385 450 448 479 522 540 466 391 0.8589 417 411 347 301 266 331 337 394 392 419 457 304 11392 0.8519 363 358 353 298 258 229 284 289 339 337 360 247 11693 0.8321 313 309 305 301 254 220 195 242 246 288 287 215 9894 0.8338 264 260 257 254 250 211 183 162 201 205 240 186 7895 0.7920 223 220 217 214 212 209 176 153 135 168 171 126 9796 0.7943 179 176 174 172 170 168 165 140 121 107 133 84 9597 0.7294 144 142 140 138 137 135 133 131 111 96 85 60 8498 0.7544 106 105 104 102 101 100 98 97 96 81 70 34 7299 0.8168 81 80 79 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 61 43 38
100 0.0000 67 66 65 65 64 63 62 61 61 60 59 67 0
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Migration Method: Average Three Sets of Migration Data
Average age-sex structure from forward and backward surviving method
Apply the averaged age-sex structure to the tax return exempt county totals
Average the three sets of migration data to obtain the data for migration input
Run Cohort Component Model
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Migration Method: Comparison
Forward Surviving
Backward Surviving
Tax Exempt Total
9,337 8,732 7,800
New Mexico Annual Total Net Migration 10 year average, both sex
Validation: Natural Increase and Migration
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The percentage contribution of natural increase and net migration changes over the 30 years.
Year Natural Increase %
Net Migration %
2011 50.4% 49.6%
2040 36.7% 63.3%
Average 41.8% 58.2%
Validation: Dependency Ratio for Young Group
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Validation: Dependency Ratio for Senior Group
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Validation: Dependency Ratio over Projection Period
Comparison of Historical Trend
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Using Excel Macro Program to Retrieve Customized Data Table
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Result
