Sy GoodmanSy GoodmanThe Sam Nunn School of International Affairs The Sam Nunn School of International Affairs and The College of Computingand The College of ComputingGeorgia Tech Georgia Tech for thefor theMarconi SocietyMarconi SocietyColumbia UniversityColumbia UniversityApril 16, 2009April 16, 2009

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Second largest continent both demographically and Second largest continent both demographically and geographicallygeographically

Difficulties extend beyond those of any other continent: Difficulties extend beyond those of any other continent: cross border strife, civil strife, disease, poverty, human cross border strife, civil strife, disease, poverty, human trafficking, little to no modern infrastructure, trafficking, little to no modern infrastructure, kleptocracy and other abuses of governancekleptocracy and other abuses of governance

A sampling tour of problems: Democratic Republic of A sampling tour of problems: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Libya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, the Congo, Liberia, Libya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, ZimbabweUganda, Zimbabwe

Some countries that you rarely hear about: Botswana, Some countries that you rarely hear about: Botswana, Cape Verde, Mauritius, Namibia, Senegal, Tanzania, Cape Verde, Mauritius, Namibia, Senegal, Tanzania, TunisiaTunisia

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The remarkable story of a glass half fullThe remarkable story of a glass half full

WSIS aspirationsWSIS aspirations

The penetration of landlines, internets, and mobile The penetration of landlines, internets, and mobile phonesphones

Mobile phone penetration enablers: affordable devices, Mobile phone penetration enablers: affordable devices, less fixed infrastructure, usable interfaces, small less fixed infrastructure, usable interfaces, small increments for pre-paid options, CPP, asymmetric increments for pre-paid options, CPP, asymmetric charging for mobile to and from fixed, low power charging for mobile to and from fixed, low power requirementsrequirements

Mobile phones: lots of need and value at affordable Mobile phones: lots of need and value at affordable prices. Simple social/economic innovations in use, e.g., prices. Simple social/economic innovations in use, e.g., fractional demand.fractional demand.

How to get more penetration into rural areas?How to get more penetration into rural areas?5

A spectrum of security concerns and A spectrum of security concerns and applications. Illustrations from Nigeria, applications. Illustrations from Nigeria, Somalia, Tanzania, and LiberiaSomalia, Tanzania, and Liberia

What doesn’t seem to appear on anybody’s What doesn’t seem to appear on anybody’s security radar screen?security radar screen?

The coming Tsunami of information The coming Tsunami of information insecurity?insecurity?

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Mobile phones are becoming very inexpensive and Mobile phones are becoming very inexpensive and powerful and ubiquitous computing and powerful and ubiquitous computing and telecommunications platformstelecommunications platforms

Voice over IP is going to be in a lot of people’s Voice over IP is going to be in a lot of people’s futurefuture

New and expanded professional and personal New and expanded professional and personal applications are moving to mobile phones, e.g., applications are moving to mobile phones, e.g., digital wallets, m-bankingdigital wallets, m-banking

Mobile phones will become the primary Mobile phones will become the primary personal and professional computing vehicle personal and professional computing vehicle for a large majority of the entire world’s for a large majority of the entire world’s populationpopulation

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Digital mobile devices and networks will be Digital mobile devices and networks will be vulnerable in every way networked desktops and vulnerable in every way networked desktops and laptops are, e.g., to interception, botnets, and laptops are, e.g., to interception, botnets, and malware, and in new or exacerbated waysmalware, and in new or exacerbated ways

The devices and networks will be less defensively The devices and networks will be less defensively capable than desktops and laptops, e.g., battery capable than desktops and laptops, e.g., battery and power limitationsand power limitations

Billions of users, a.k.a. current and potential Billions of users, a.k.a. current and potential victims and trouble makers, and lots of value victims and trouble makers, and lots of value (information, money, communications channels)…(information, money, communications channels)…

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Likely to have much more conflict, grief, and Likely to have much more conflict, grief, and consternation in this expanding “cyberspace” consternation in this expanding “cyberspace” than what we are already seeing in the world than what we are already seeing in the world of desktop and laptop platformsof desktop and laptop platforms

Once again: Will the bad guys prove to be Once again: Will the bad guys prove to be better at innovation and especially at better at innovation and especially at effective implementation than the good guys?effective implementation than the good guys?

Admittedly these are asymmetric challenges, Admittedly these are asymmetric challenges, but the good guys invented all this stuff in the but the good guys invented all this stuff in the first place and we have the great majority of first place and we have the great majority of the PhDs on our side…the PhDs on our side…

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We have warningWe have warning

We have lots of experience and mistakes with We have lots of experience and mistakes with the Internet the Internet

This time, will we get ahead of the problem This time, will we get ahead of the problem and make the world of mobile cyberspace and make the world of mobile cyberspace safer and more secure before the Tsunami safer and more secure before the Tsunami forms, builds momentum, and hits us?forms, builds momentum, and hits us?

Who believes that will happen?Who believes that will happen?

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From an information security standpoint, many From an information security standpoint, many users may be protected by their relative users may be protected by their relative disadvantages, e.g., small increments of pre-paid disadvantages, e.g., small increments of pre-paid minutes, CPP, phones often off to preserve minutes, CPP, phones often off to preserve battery power, less capable phonesbattery power, less capable phones

But this will change, as they develop more But this will change, as they develop more extensive economic applicationsextensive economic applications

And as their risks increase, ours may as wellAnd as their risks increase, ours may as well

Main risks now are probably lost or stolen phones, Main risks now are probably lost or stolen phones, and much enabled government surveillanceand much enabled government surveillance

Design needs: alarm, “911” autodial with GPS…, Design needs: alarm, “911” autodial with GPS…, other physical security featuresother physical security features

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Most of the countries on the continent are Most of the countries on the continent are essentially defenselessessentially defenseless

Institutionally – laws and organizations – Institutionally – laws and organizations – there is almost nothing in most countries that there is almost nothing in most countries that helps protect the great majority of Internet helps protect the great majority of Internet usersusers

Only one operational national CERT/CSIRT (in Only one operational national CERT/CSIRT (in Tunisia). Others in various embryonic stagesTunisia). Others in various embryonic stages

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Purposes: (1) To study what is happening there, or (2) to Purposes: (1) To study what is happening there, or (2) to work with them to help improve things.work with them to help improve things.

Problems of sustaining an effort. They have problems, Problems of sustaining an effort. They have problems, we have problems, and together the problems are we have problems, and together the problems are exceptionally difficult to overcome in most countries.exceptionally difficult to overcome in most countries.

Finding capable people who will stick with it. Americans Finding capable people who will stick with it. Americans who will put the time in-country to help them until they who will put the time in-country to help them until they can sustain on their own. African countries lack depth in can sustain on their own. African countries lack depth in capable people who can work infosec technically and capable people who can work infosec technically and managerially.managerially.

Dealing with African governments to a sustainable Dealing with African governments to a sustainable closure, sensitivities with regard to anything involving closure, sensitivities with regard to anything involving “security,” physical risks, funding.“security,” physical risks, funding.

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Selected ReferencesSelected References

On AfricaOn Africa::

John Reader, John Reader, Africa: A Biography of a Continent, Africa: A Biography of a Continent, NY: NY: Vintage Books, 1999Vintage Books, 1999

For Statistics, Announcements and News Stories:For Statistics, Announcements and News Stories:

African Telecommunication/ICT Indicators 2008: At a African Telecommunication/ICT Indicators 2008: At a Crossroads,Crossroads, International Telecommunication Union, International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, 2008Geneva, 2008

www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics

www.allAfrica.com

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More Selected More Selected ReferencesReferences

On the Spread of Mobile TelephonyOn the Spread of Mobile Telephony::

Kas Kalba, Kas Kalba, The Global Adoption and Diffusion of Mobile The Global Adoption and Diffusion of Mobile Phones,Phones, Cambridge: Center for Information Policy Cambridge: Center for Information Policy Research, Harvard University, December 2008Research, Harvard University, December 2008

Kas Kalba, “The Adoption of Mobile Phones in Kas Kalba, “The Adoption of Mobile Phones in Emerging Markets: Global Diffusion and the Rural Emerging Markets: Global Diffusion and the Rural Challenge,” Challenge,” International Journal of Communication 2 International Journal of Communication 2 (2008), 631-661(2008), 631-661 ( (www.kalbainternational.com))

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Yet More Selected Yet More Selected ReferencesReferences

On LiberiaOn Liberia::

Michael L. Best, et al., “Post-Conflict Communications: Michael L. Best, et al., “Post-Conflict Communications: The Case of Liberia,” The Case of Liberia,” Comm. of the ACM,Comm. of the ACM, Vol. 50, No. 10, Vol. 50, No. 10, October 2007, 33-39October 2007, 33-39

Michael L. Best, et al., “Uses of Mobile Phones in Post-Michael L. Best, et al., “Uses of Mobile Phones in Post-Conflict Liberia.” Paper presented at the IEEE/ACM Conflict Liberia.” Paper presented at the IEEE/ACM International Conference on Information and International Conference on Information and Communication Technologies and Development Communication Technologies and Development (ICTD09), Doha, April 18-19, 2009(ICTD09), Doha, April 18-19, 2009

On Emerging Cyber Security ThreatsOn Emerging Cyber Security Threats::

Georgia Tech Information Security Center, “Emerging Georgia Tech Information Security Center, “Emerging Cyber Threats for 2009,” Cyber Threats for 2009,” www.gtisc.gatech.edu

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