new knowledge on climate change:new knowledge on …...oct 01, 2007 · adapting to climate change...
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New Knowledge on Climate Change:New Knowledge on Climate Change: Global Efforts for Meeting The Challenge
Dr R K PachauriDr R K PachauriChairman, IPCCDi t G l TERIDirector-General, TERI
GCEP Research Symposium St f d 1st O t b 2007Stanford, 1st October 2007
Contents
“Climate change is unequivocal”
Human contribution to climate change
Projections and impacts
Urgent need for mitigationUrgent need for mitigation
Mitigation costs and potential
Key technologies and measures
Adapting to climate change in Asia
Commitments in China and India
Adapting to climate change in Asia
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Towards a new development path
“Climate change is unequivocal”
Palaeoclimatic perspective
Warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the i 1 300previous 1,300 years
L t ti th l i i ifi tl thLast time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 m of sea level risep
3IPCC
“Climate change is unequivocal”Changes in temperature, sea level and
northern hemisphere snow cover
Gl b l t tGlobal average temperature
Global average sea level
Northern hemisphere snow cover
4IPCC
“Climate change is unequivocal”C l ti b l
During the 20th century,
Cumulative balance of glacier mass in some regions
During the 20th century, glaciers and ice caps have experienced widespread mass losses
New data confirm that lossesNew data confirm that losses from the ice sheets have contributed to sea level riseover 1993 to 2003over 1993 to 2003
5IPCC
“Climate change is unequivocal”
Significant changes in precipitations
Increases
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Decreases
“Climate change is unequivocal”
Other observed impacts of climate change
More intense, longer droughts
Widespread change in extreme temperature
Increasing intense cyclone activity
Poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species
7IPCC
Human contribution to climate changeGlobal and continental temperature change
There is nowThere is now stronger evidence of human influenceon climateon climate
8IPCC
Models using only natural forcingModels using both natural and anthropogenic forcing
Observations
Human contribution to climate changeCh i CO f i d d d t
Global atmospheric
Changes in CO2 from ice core and modern data
Global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases increased markedly as
-2
increased markedly as result of human activities
In 2005 concentration of CO2 exceeded by far the
l hnatural range over the last 650,000 years
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10000 5000 0Time (before 2005)
IPCC
Projections and impactsM lti d l d dMulti-model averages and assessed ranges
for surface warming
Continued emissions would lead to further warming of g1.8ºC to 4ºC over the 21st century, depending on different p gscenarios
Broadly consistentBroadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR
10IPCC
Projections and impacts
Impacts on natural ecosystems
Climate change will reduce biodiversity and perturb functioning of most ecosystems, and compromise the services they currently provideservices they currently provide
20-30% of plant and animal species at risk of extinctionº
Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable:
if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5ºC
y g yCoral reefs, marine shell organismsTundra, boreal forests, mountain and
11IPCC
Mediterranean regions
Projections and impacts
Poor communities vulnerability
Poor communities are especially vulnerable to p yclimate change
They tend to have more limited adaptiveThey tend to have more limited adaptive capacities, and are more dependent on climate-sensitive resources such as local water and food supplies
12IPCC
Projections and impacts
Expected impacts
Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent
Likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation Less confidence in decrease of total number
Extra-tropical storm tracks projected to move poleward
precipitation. Less confidence in decrease of total number
with consequent changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns
13IPCC
Projections and impacts
Effects on poor regions
Malnutrition further exacerbated by reduced length of growing season in Sahelian region of Africa. In some countries yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reducedcountries, yields from rain fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020
75 to 250 million people exposed to increased water stress
Food insecurity and loss of livelihood further
p p pin 2020 in Africa
Food insecurity and loss of livelihood further exacerbated by loss of cultivated land and nursery areas for fisheries by inundation and coastal erosion in low-lying areas f t i l A i
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of tropical Asia
IPCC
Projections and impacts
Coastal settlements most at risk
15IPCC
Urgent need for mitigation
Adaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions
However:
Adaptation alone cannot cope with all the projected impactsAdaptation alone cannot cope with all the projected impacts of climate change
The costs of adaptation and impacts will increase as global temperatures increasetemperatures increase
Need for a mix of strategiesNeed for a mix of strategies including adaptation,
technological development, research
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and mitigation of GHG emissions
IPCC
Urgent need for mitigationC f
Stabilizationlevel
Global mean temp. increase
Year CO2 needs to
Year CO2emissions Reduction in 2050
CO emissions
Characteristics of stabilization scenarios
level (ppm CO2-eq)
temp. increase at equilibrium
(ºC)
needs to peak back at 2000
level
CO2 emissions compared to 2000
445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 2000 - 2015 2000- 2030 -85 to -50
490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 2000 - 2020 2000- 2040 -60 to -30
535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 2010 - 2030 2020- 2060 -30 to +5
590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 2020 - 2060 2050- 2100 +10 to +60
710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 2050 - 2080 +25 to +85
855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 2060 - 2090 +90 to +140
Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower
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stabilization levels
IPCC
Mitigation costs and potential
Estimated global macro-economic costs in 2030 for least-cost trajectories towards different long-term stabilization levels
Reduction of average annual
GDP growth rates
Range of GDP reduction
(%)
MedianGDP
reduction
Trajectories towards
stabilization
< 0.06-0.6 – 1.20.2590-710
(percentage points)(%)levels (ppm CO2-eq)
< 0.12< 3Not available445-535
<0.10.2 – 2.50.6535-590
0.12 3Not available445 535
Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain
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g gto 3% decrease of GDP in 2030
IPCC
Mitigation costs and potential
GDP
Illustration of costs numbers
GDPGDP without mitigation 80%
77%
GDP with stringent
iti ti
TimeCurrent
mitigation
~1 Year
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Current ~1 Year2030
IPCC
Mitigation costs and potential
Cumulative emissions reductions for alternative mitigation measures
Energy conservation & efficiency
Fossil fuel switch
Renewables
Nuclear
CCS
Forest sinks
Cumulative emission reduction Cumulative emission reduction
Non-CO2
20IPCC
GtCO2-eq GtCO2-eq
Key technologies and measuresKey mitigation technologies currently commercially available
Efficiency; fuel switching; renewable (hydropowerEnergy Supply
Efficiency; fuel switching; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; nuclear power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage
T t
More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public
li lki l dTransport transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning
Effi i t li hti ffi i t li d i diti
Buildings
Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and aircodition; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances
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pp
IPCC
Key technologies and measuresAppropriate incentives for
development of technologies
Effective carbon price signal to create incentives to invest in low-GHG
d t t h l i dproducts, technologies and processes
Appropriate energy infrastructurein estment decisions hich ha e
Ch i lif t l d b h i
investment decisions, which have long term effects on emissions
Changes in lifestyle and behaviorpatterns, especially in building and transport
22IPCC
Adapting to climate change in Asia
Key vulnerabilities
Agriculture and food supply
Decrease in crop yields up to 30% in Central andSouth Asia by 2050Uncertainties as to how climate change will impactUncertainties as to how climate change will impactfood supply and demandRisk of hunger projected to remain very high ing j y gdeveloping countries
23IPCC
Adapting to climate change in Asia
Key vulnerabilities
Water managementWater management
Glacier melt projected to increase flooding, rock l h d ff i hi havalanches and to affect water resources within the next
two to three decades
Salinity of groundwater especially along the coast due toSalinity of groundwater especially along the coast, due to increases in sea level and over-exploitation
Decrease of freshwater availability in Central, South,Decrease of freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia affecting more than a billion people by 2050
24IPCC
Adapting to climate change in Asia
Human health
Key vulnerabilities
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease inEast, South and Southeast Asia primarily associated withfloods and droughtsgExacerbation of abundance / toxicity of cholera in South Asiadue to increases in coastal water temperature
Coastal areasCoastal erosion and inundation of coastal lowland as sea levelcontinues to rise flooding the residence of millions of people livingcontinues to rise, flooding the residence of millions of people livingin the low lying areas of South, South-East and East AsiaSignificant losses of coastal ecosystems, affecting the aquacultureindustry particularly in heavily-populated megadeltas
25IPCC
industry, particularly in heavily-populated megadeltas
Adapting to climate change in Asia
Adaptation strategies
Enhancing social capital and reducing the vulnerability of developing countries
I i i l l d ti d t h i l killIncreasing income levels, education and technical skillsImproving public food distributionImproving disaster preparedness and management, and health p g p p gcare systems Promoting good governance including responsible policy and decision making and communities empowerment g pMainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors
26IPCC
Adapting to climate change in Asia
Adaptation strategies
Increasing agriculture adaptive capacity
Modifying farming practices (e g reasonable rotationalModifying farming practices (e.g. reasonable rotational grazing to ensure the sustainability of grassland resources)Improving crops and livestock through breeding (e g breeding of new rice varieties to minimise the risk of(e.g. breeding of new rice varieties to minimise the risk of serious productivity losses) Investing in new technologies and infrastructure (e g improvement of irrigation systems)(e.g. improvement of irrigation systems) Information, education and communication programmes to enhance the level of awareness and understanding of the vulnerable groups
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vulnerable groups
IPCC
Adapting to climate change in Asia
Adaptation strategies
Preventing water scarcity
Conversion of cropland to forest (grassland)Restoration and re-establishment of vegetationImpro ement of the tree and herb arietiesImprovement of the tree and herb varietiesSelection and cultivation of new drought-resistant varieties Water saving schemes for irrigation
28IPCC
Commitments in India and ChinaMain measures in India
Development of renewable energiesR t R&D t h l d l t dResource assessment, R&D, technology development and
demonstration
Development of nuclear powerDevelopment of nuclear powerObjective of 50-60,000 MW capacity by 2030
Expert Committee on Impacts of Climate ChangeExpert Committee on Impacts of Climate ChangeChaired by Principal Scientific Adviser to the Government of IndiaRole: study the impacts in India and identify the measures to
address vulnerabilityy
Prime Minister’s Council on Climate ChangeRole: coordinate national action for assessment, adaptation and
29IPCC
mitigation of climate change
Commitments in India and ChinaChina Climate Change Plan: Main measures
MitigationDevelopment of nuclear powerDevelopment of nuclear powerDevelopment of coal-bed methane and coal-mine methaneDevelopment of renewable energiesEnergy efficiency improvement and energy conservationEnergy efficiency improvement and energy conservation
AdaptationImprovement of agricultural infrastructures and adjustment ofImprovement of agricultural infrastructures and adjustment of agricultural structure and cropping systemsProtection of existing forest resources and other natural ecosystemsEnhancement of water resources managementgAdaptation strategies to address sea level rise
R&D enhancing
30IPCC
Public awareness raising and management improvement
Commitments in India and China
China Climate Change Plan: Objectives for 2010
Control GHG emissions20% reduction of energy consumption per unit GDP 10% of renewable energy in primary energy supply10% of renewable energy in primary energy supply20% increase of forest coverage rate 50 million tons increase of carbon sink
Enhance capacity of adaptation to climate change24 million hectares increase of improved grassland 90% of typical forest ecosystems and national key wildlife protected
31IPCC
Towards a new development pathEcological footprint and bio-capacity by region, 2003
10
North America
E EU
Latin America and the Caribbean
10
8
Europe EU
Europe Non-EU
Middle East and C t l A i
Asia-Pacific
Africa6
Central Asia4
2
326 454 349 270 535 3489 847 0
32Source: WWF, Living Planet Report 2006
Population (millions)
Towards a new development path
For much of the last century, the dominant path to industrialization was characterized by high concurrent GHG emissionsemissions
Committing to alternative development paths can result in very different future GHG emissionsy
This will require major changes in areas other than climate change:climate change:
Economic structure TechnologyGeographical distribution of activitiesGeographical distribution of activitiesConsumption patternsUrban design and transport infrastructureDemography
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DemographyInstitutional arrangements and trade patterns
IPCC
Towards a new development pathCO
15Rest of non-OECD
Energy-Related CO2 emissions by Region (WEO Reference Scenario)
12
f CO 2
China
Rest of non-OECD
Rest of OECD
6
9
gaton
nes
of
United States
Rest of OECD
0
3
Gig
Chi t k th US th ld’ bi t itt i 2007
01990 2000 2010 2020 2030
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China overtook the US as the world’s biggest emitter in 2007, though its per capita emissions reach just 60% of those of the OECD in 2030
Source: WEO 2006
Towards a new development path
D d f bi l i l h ll A i
Asia’s growing pressure on natural resources
Demands for biological resources have grown all over Asia in recent years
R t f b th t t l f t l d f t d d tiRates of both total forest loss and forest degradation are higher in Asia than anywhere else in the world
Population is predicted to grow to more than 5 billion by 2050
Economic growth is estimated to increase 4 2 fold of theEconomic growth is estimated to increase 4.2-fold of the current gross domestic product by 2050
35IPCC
People at risk of coastal flooding in the 2080s (p a)
Towards a new development path
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40
People at risk of coastal flooding in the 2080s (p.a)
20
25
30
35
of p
eopl
e
5
10
15
20
Mill
ions
o
0
5
A1 A2 B2 B1SRES futures
Without climate change With climate change
Future vulnerability depends not only on climate change
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y p y gbut also on development pathway
IPCC
Towards a new development path
"We must reconcile the need for development pwith the need for environmental protection"
"China wants to blaze a new path to industrialization"
Ma Kai, Chairman of China'sMa Kai, Chairman of China s National Development and Reform Commission
37IPCC
Be the change you want to see in the worldGandhi was once asked if he expected India to attain the same standard of living as Britain. He replied:
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of living as Britain. He replied:It took Britain half the resources of the planet to achieve this prosperity. How many planets will a country like India require!