Prepared for:

June 26, 2018

New Jersey Department of TransportationExtreme Weather Asset Management Pilot Study

Overview

Introduction

• Overview of Pilot Study• New Jersey’s Climate • New Jersey’s Transportation Assets• New Jersey Challenges • Summarize study approach & findings• Next Steps

Hurricane Sandy approaching the New Jersey coastline on October 29, 2012

New Jersey’s Climate

• 41 emergency declarations in the last 10 years (State and Federal Declarations )

• 16 associated with flooding or tropical storms (Hurricane Sandy in 2012, and Tropical Storm Irene the most damaging)

• 18 winter storm related

• Average annual temperatures have increased by 3 degrees F over the past century

• Highly variable precipitation with wetter than average conditions in the last decade (Average annual precipitation = 46.01 inches, projected to increase)

• Sea level along New Jersey’s coast has risen by more than 16 inches since 1911, double the global average (projected to rise 1 to 4 feet by 2100)

Passaic River fills street in Paterson, NJ – Hurricane Irene

New Jersey’s Transportation

• 8,543 lane miles of pavement in the State Highway System (35% considered good condition, 32% fair, 33% poor)

• 2,676 lane miles of Interstates (61% good, 38% fair, 1% poor)

• 6,702 bridges• 2,582 NJDOT owned/maintained bridges (29%,, 59%, 12%)

• 6,096 minor bridges• 956 NJDOT owned/maintained minor bridges (26% good, 69% fair, 5% poor)

• 4 major airports

• 3 major water ports including the largest seaport in the US in Elizabeth

• Home of 3rd largest commuter service provider (NJ Transit, bus, rail & light rail) with weekday daily ridership totaling 928,494 (2015)

• 981 miles of freight railroad

• 360 miles of waterway

New Jersey Victory Bridge over Route 35

New Jersey’s Challenges

• Coastal area presents its own unique challenges (impacts from storm surges, tidal flooding, projected sea level rise, plus Tourism and associated land use development challenges - the need to “rebuild” in flood prone areas to maintain economic stability, value of “beach front property”

• Varying weather stressors• Winter storm events are growing concern• Inland flooding• How to account for extreme weather considerations in

analytical tools used to predict asset performance over time (rate of deterioration)

Linking Extreme Weather and Asset Management

• NJDOT currently establishing an Asset Management Plan/Program and has identified extreme weather as an external environmental factor in assessing risks

• TAMP – Risk Management Process

• Identifying, assessing, evaluating risks, developing a mitigation plan and

monitoring top priority risks

• Extreme weather currently 3rd highest risk in NJDOT’s Risk Register

• Using results of pilot program to develop a strategy to implement in

TAMP Process

• 23 CFR Part 667 Evaluation

Pilot Overview

2017 selected with 5 other states -Arizona, Kentucky, Massachusetts,Maryland, & Texas, to participate in a Pilot Program focused on extremeweather, climate risks, and assetmanagement

Aerial View of Study Area: I-80

Pilot Overview

Originally selected culverts as the “asset class” to investigate impacts of extreme weatherFocused on “noncoastal” areasCould not study entire state so selected a specific study area to see

what could be learned and applied state wideStudy refocused on identifying “root causes” of flooding in the target

area to then develop cost-effective mitigation strategies

Compile & Integrate Data

2016 DMS Rankings Snapshot

Internal Sources:

External Sources:

Other:

- Drainage Management System (DMS)- Maintenance Management System (MMS)- Culvert Inspection Reports (Bureau of Structural Evaluation

and Bridge Management, SEBM)- Operations Region’s Input- Crash Data (Bureau of Transportation Data and Safety, BTDS)

- Concept Development Reports from Design Team (Louis Berger)- NOAA

- GIS

Case Study Area

New Initiatives: Linking Extreme Weather and Asset Management• Asset Management, Extreme

Weather, and Proxy Indicators Pilot

• The research is aimed at identifying the

root cause of flooding to target the most

cost-effective risk management

mitigation to incorporate in lifecycle

planning

STRESSOR:

WEATHER-RELATED RISK:

IMPACT

PRECIPITATION

FLOODING

MOBILITY

SAFETY

INFRASTRUCTURE PRESERVATION

Understanding The Problem

Preliminary Data Analysis Results: I-80 MP 56.43 to MP 58.22

EB WB

Total Number of Incidents Recorded 50

Westbound 41 82%

Eastbound 9 18%

Number of Recorded Flooding Incidents by YearMonth 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Month

Total

January 1 0 0 0 0 0 1

February 0 0 2 0 0 0 2

March 0 0 2 0 0 0 2

April 0 0 3 0 1 0 4

May 1 0 1 0 0 0 2

June 0 0 3 0 0 1 4

July 1 0 1 2 5 1 10

August 1 2 0 0 0 0 3

September 2 2 0 2 0 0 6

October 0 0 2 3 2 0 7

November 0 0 3 0 4 0 7

December 1 0 0 1 0 0 2

Year Total 7 4 17 8 12 2

• 2014 experienced the highest number of recorded flooding incidents between the five-year period (2012-2017)

• 2016 experienced the second highest number of recorded flooding incidents between the five-year period (2012-2017)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Incident Maintenance Activity

I-80 Number of Incidents vs. Maintenance Activities (Cleaning) by Year (2012-2017)

Preliminary Data Analysis Results: Rt. 23 MP 4 to MP 7

NB SB

Total Number of Incidents Recorded 17

Northbound 1 6%

Southbound 16 94%

- One extra incident recorded (not flooding).

- Number of incidents noting “clogged storm drain” = 7.

Route 23 Number of Incidents vs. Maintenance Activities (Cleaning) by Year (2012-2017)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Incident Maintenance Activity (Cleaning)

Comparison of Case Study Areas (2012-2017 Yr. Period)I-80 Route 23

Study area location: MP. 56.43 to MP 58.22 (1.79 miles) MP. 4.0 to MP 7.0 (3 miles)

DMS ranking (2016 data): #1 #14

AADT in one direction: 62,515 29,092

Number of recorded incidents: 50 17

Critical areas: WB between MP 57 – 57.5 SB between MP 6.8 – 62.82

Total number of maintenance activities in 5-yr. period: 18 42

- Cleaning activities (inlets/manholes/channels ditches/pipes):

11 27

How about the culverts ??

• As builts and inspection reports noted culverts were not contributing factors to flooding, drainage issues, not culverts….inlet spacing,

• Although designed and constructed some time ago without “extreme weather” considerations, function ok today, as long as they are maintained

• Reaffirms need to identify possible root causes of flooding, before strategies are developed to address risks of extreme weather I-80 Culvert (located at MP 57.35 on Westbound direction)

Incorporating Study Results into Asset Management

• Root cause analysis identifies a method to evaluate and develop risk mitigation actions

• Better understanding of relationship between stressor, roadway system performance and cause of problem

• Incorporate study’s recommendations into lifecycle planning in the planning, design/engineering, and maintenance/operations phases

• Enhance/implement the use of GIS as a “Resiliency Management System” to be incorporated into NJDOT’s current process

Developing a “Resilience Management Tool/System” – How to identify vulnerabilitiesGIS can help

• Use various digital layers to give an indication of what areas could be subject to flooding

• Project case study areas and culverts within these locations. (System can be used for any Assets)

• National flood hazard layer from FEMA.

• Soil hydrologic group layer.

• In progress: precipitation historical data and projections, and maintenance activities.

• Data shows:

• Project case study areas are in low terrain (between 50’ – 200’).

• Case study area soil group = low permeability.

• Route 23 within 100-yr flood zone.

GIS – I-80 Digital Elevation Model

GIS – I-80 Flood Hazard Zones

GIS – I-80 Soil Groups