new england's changing climate
TRANSCRIPT
New England’s Changing Climate
Cameron Wake, Ph. D. Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (EOS)
Josephine A Lamprey Professor in Climate & Sustainability University of New Hampshire
@TheClimateDr http://CarbonSolutionsNE.org
Climate Change and New England Forests 18 Nov 2015
Global Temperature & CO2
National Climate Assessment 2014
New Hampshire Climate Assessments
ClimateSolutionsNE.org
Southern NH : Average Annual MINIMUM Temperature 1895 – 2012 Monthly data from US Historical Climatology Network
Southern NH Annual Precipitation
1895 – 2012
Monthly data from US Historical Climatology
Network
Palmer Drought Severity Index
Precipitation Events >4” in 48 hrs per Decade Daily data from US Global Historical Climatology Network
Northeast Regional Climate Ctr Atlas for Extreme Precipitation 24 hr 100-year rainfall = 8.5” Data up through 2008 http://precip.eas.cornell.edu/
Updated 24-hour 100-year Design Storm
TP-40 (Hershfield 1961) Rainfall Frequency Atlas 24 hr 100-year rainfall = 6.3” 1938-1957 5 6 7 8 9 in
Federal Expenditures on Presidentially Declared Disasters & Emergency Declarations in NH
1998: Ice Storm 2005: Alstead/Keene Floods (Oct) 2006: Mother’s Day Flood (May) 2007: Patriots Day Flood (April) 2008: Tornado; Floods; Ice Storm 2010: Windstorm; Floods 2011: Irene 2012: Flooding; Sandy
Data from: www.fema.gov/disasters/grid/state-tribal-government
Southern NH: Trends Per Decade in Temperature and Precipitation
Trends that meet Mann-Kendall non-parametric test for statistical significance are bold and underlined.
Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios Key Input for GCM projections of future climate change
IPCC 2007
Projecting Future Climate Change for the Northeast: Downscale Global Projections to Regional Level
Projections from 4 different global climate models: NOAA – GFDL UKMO – HadCM3 NCAR – PCM NCAR – CCSM3
New England Mean Annual Temperature 2070 – 2099 Average of statistically downscaled simulations from 4 GCMs
A1fi B1
NH Meteorological Stations (•) Temperature
New England: Average Summer MAXIMUM Temperature 1960-2099 Average of statistically downscaled simulations from 4 GCMs
New England: Number of Days Hotter than 90oF (30 year averages) Average of statistically downscaled simulations from 4 GCMs
New England: Length of Growing Season (30 year averages) Average of statistically downscaled simulations from 4 GCMs
NH Meteorological Stations (•) Precip.
New England: Average Annual Precipitation 1960-2099 Average of statistically downscaled simulations from 4 GCMs
New England: Precipitation Events >4” in 48 hrs per Decade Average of statistically downscaled simulations from 4 GCMs
New England: Days with Snow on the Ground Average of statistically downscaled simulations from 4 GCMs
credit: Associated Press
Drought
1-3 months 3-6 months >6 months
Hayhoe, Wake, et al. (2007) Climate Dynamics
Changes in Habitat Suitability for Different Forest Types by Late-Century
Iverson L, A Prasad and S Matthews (2008) Modeling potential climate change impacts on the trees of the northeastern United States. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 13, 487-516.
AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty
Late-Century Range of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid
Paradis et al (2008) Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 13(5-6), 541-554.
New Hampshire Climate Assessments
ClimateSolutionsNE.org
Dynamical Downscaling WRF Domains
Grid Cell Resolutions 27 – 9 – 3 km2
New Hampshire Land Cover Scenarios
• Produce narrative descriptions and MAPS of land cover • Range of possible future conditions • Reflect key informant perspectives & existing plans/visions • Maps provide boundary conditions for process models
Backyard Amenities
Current Trends
Community Amenities
Community Amenities with Ag
Data Discovery Center: http://epscor-ddc.sr.unh.edu