new development of a 3-d hydrodynamic model for lake sammamish · 2014. 9. 22. · lakes background...

Development of a 3-D Hydrodynamic Model for Lake Sammamish

Curtis DeGasperiKing County DNRP, WLRD

Science SeminarNovember 23, 2004

King County’s Freshwater Program (formerly SWAMP and GDWQA)

Lakes Background -Washington

Metric EnglishDrainage Basin Area 1,274 km2 314,800 acCedar Basin 495 km2 122,300 acLake Surface Area 87.6 km2 21,500 acLake Volume 2.9x109 m3 2.35x106 ac-ftMean Depth 33 m 108 ftMaximum Depth 65.2 m 214 ft

Mean Residence Time 2.3 years

Lakes Background -Sammamish

Metric EnglishDrainage Basin Area 230 km2 57,000 acIssaquah Basin 145 km2 35,600 acLake Surface Area 19.8 km2 4,900 acLake Volume 3.5x108 m3 283,860 ac-ftMean Depth 17.7 m 58 ftMaximum Depth 32 m 105 ft

Mean Residence Time 1.8 years

LakesCH3DCE-QUAL-ICM

RiverCE-QUAL-W2

WatershedHSPFUrbanSim

Model Selection

Lake Models Background

• Initially developed for Chesapeake Bay• ACOE-ERDC set up and calibrate Lake

Washington models• King County set up and calibrate Lake

Sammamish models

CH3D Model

• 3-D model• Temperature• Salinity• Horizontal and vertical velocity

ACOE-ERDC Lake WashingtonCH3D Model• Boundary fitted z-coordinate grid• k-ε turbulence closure scheme (Rodi 1980)• Heat exchange confined to surface layer• Externally processed Equilibrium

Temperature (ET) heat exchange• Solar radiation calculated in ET program• Simple convective vertical mixing scheme

Temperature Modeling

Solar shortwave radiation

Atmoshpericlongwaveradiation

Conduction and

Convection

Longwaveback radiation

from water

Evaporation and

condenstation

Radiation terms Non-radiation terms

Net absorbed radiation Water dependent terms

Hn = Hs + Ha + He + Hc - (Hsr + Har + Hbr)

Equilibrium Temperature

• Conceptually simple• Computation may be performed externally• Closed-form analytical solution• Assumes heat loss is linearly related to

water temperature

James Martin and Steven McCutcheon. 1999. Hydrodynamics and Transport for Water Quality Modeling. page 372.

)( eTwTawKawH −−=

Model Setup

• Bathymetry• Meteorology• Constituent Inputs (trib/precip)

Data Sources

• Bathymetry (JC Headwaters/King County)• Meteorology (Sea-Tac/Sand Point)• Hydrology and stream temperature (WLRD,

USGS)• Water quality data (WLRD)• Lake water surface elevations (USGS/ACOE)

Bathymetry

4,283 cells

249 surface cells

30 layers

layers 3 feet (0.91 m) thick

Average cell area 0.08 km2

(19.8 ac)

Average cell length 280 m (920 ft)

Lake Sammamish Grid

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UW Atm Sci

WSDOT SR520

WSDOT I-90

Boeing Field

Sea-Tac

RUSS-SAMMS

Lake Washington

Lake Sammamish

Renton Airport

NOAA-ISIS

Meteorological Data Sources

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Boeing Field

Sea-Tac

Lake Washington

Lake Sammamish


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Lake Washington

Lake SammamishUW Atm Sci

NOAA-ISIS


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Lake Washington

Lake Sammamish

RUSS-SAMMS


Wind Speed ScalingWIND SPEED ADJUSTMENT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 2 4 6 8

WIND SPEED (M S-1)

OB

S H

EIG

HT

(M)

Adjusted SpeedObs Height:

Observation Height6.1 m

P

zzUU ⎟⎠⎞

⎜⎝⎛=

1

212

Wind Speed ScalingWIND SPEED ADJUSTMENT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 2 4 6 8

WIND SPEED (M S-1)

OB

S H

EIG

HT

(M)

Adjusted SpeedObs Height:

Observation Height6.1 m )(12 WSFUU =

Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF)

Surface Shear Stress

U10m = U6.1m x WSF x WAF

Surface Heat Exchange

U2m = U6.1m x WSF x WAF

Monthly Average Wind Speed ComparisonRUSS vs Sea-Tac

0

1

2

3

4

5

1/1/2000 12/31/2000 12/31/2001 12/31/2002 1/1/2004

Date

M S

-1

RUSS Sea-Tac

Sea-Tac

RUSS

RUSS Monthly Average Wind Speed - % of Sea-Tac

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1/1/2000 12/31/2000 12/31/2001 12/31/2002 1/1/2004

Date

Perc

ent

Wind Speed at Lake Averages ~90 % of Sea-Tac Wind

Sea-Tac Hourly Wind Speed by Year

YEAR

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

M S

-1

0

5

10

15

20

Wind Data EvaluationSEA-TAC

ASOS Oct. 1996

Wind Data EvaluationBoeing Field

Year

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

M S

-1

0

5

10

15

20

BOEING FIELD

ASOS Dec. 1998

Model Calibration1995 - 2002

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#

#

#

#

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#

0625

0611

0622

M621

0612

0617

0614

CH3D Temperature Results1995 - 2002

CH3D 1995 - 0612

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.0881ame =0.0881rmse =0.0882

17-Jan-1995CH3D 0612

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.16ame =0.186rmse =0.224

08-Feb-1995

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.326ame =0.326rmse =0.384

07-Mar-1995

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.166ame =0.297rmse =0.387

04-Apr-1995

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.331ame =0.355rmse =0.52

18-Apr-1995

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.329ame =0.363rmse =0.482

02-May-1995

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.132ame =0.28rmse =0.334

16-May-1995

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.714ame =0.863rmse =1.26

05-Jun-1995

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.44ame =0.481rmse =0.703

10-Jul-1995

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.225ame =0.341rmse =0.557

01-Aug-1995

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.312ame =0.75rmse =0.907

12-Sep-1995

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.279ame =0.813rmse =0.899

02-Oct-1995

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.0838ame =0.391rmse =0.43

09-Nov-1995

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.0827ame =0.122rmse =0.163

05-Dec-1995

Temperature (oC)

CH3D 1996 - 0612

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.249ame =0.249rmse =0.25

03-Jan-1996CH3D 0612

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.0922ame =0.0929rmse =0.104

07-Feb-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.568ame =0.568rmse =0.581

06-Mar-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.586ame =0.602rmse =0.704

21-Mar-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =1.21ame =1.21rmse =1.27

10-Apr-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.429ame =0.493rmse =0.558

30-Apr-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.541ame =0.541rmse =0.582

08-May-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.354ame =0.671rmse =0.965

21-May-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.0832ame =0.615rmse =0.769

04-Jun-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.254ame =0.606rmse =0.895

18-Jun-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.36ame =0.714rmse =1.05

02-Jul-1996

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.425ame =0.905rmse =1.03

24-Jul-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.143ame =0.703rmse =0.742

06-Aug-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.0376ame =0.777rmse =0.879

21-Aug-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.0138ame =0.521rmse =0.724

05-Sep-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.547ame =0.716rmse =0.945

17-Sep-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.543ame =0.781rmse =1.01

01-Oct-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.93ame =0.93rmse =1.03

06-Nov-1996

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.113ame =0.186rmse =0.2

04-Dec-1996

Temperature (oC)

CH3D 1997 - 0612

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.148ame =0.151rmse =0.234

22-Jan-1997CH3D 0612

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.1ame =0.111rmse =0.117

05-Feb-1997

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.138ame =0.138rmse =0.143

03-Mar-1997

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.0517ame =0.133rmse =0.141

02-Apr-1997

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

23-Apr-1997

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.0818ame =0.319rmse =0.38

07-May-1997

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.75ame =0.775rmse =1.13

02-Jun-1997

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =NaName =NaNrmse =NaN

02-Jul-1997

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.164ame =0.525rmse =0.665

06-Aug-1997

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.503ame =0.88rmse =1.05

02-Sep-1997

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =1.06ame =1.06rmse =1.31

01-Oct-1997

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.63ame =0.63rmse =0.751

08-Oct-1997

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.0878ame =0.205rmse =0.244

05-Nov-1997

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.18ame =0.18rmse =0.18

03-Dec-1997

Temperature (oC)

CH3D 1998 - 0612

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.506ame =0.506rmse =0.507

07-Jan-1998CH3D 0612

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.675ame =0.675rmse =0.675

03-Feb-1998

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.935ame =0.935rmse =0.938

03-Mar-1998

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.457ame =0.496rmse =0.607

24-Mar-1998

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.701ame =0.701rmse =0.817

06-Apr-1998

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.601ame =0.608rmse =0.829

21-Apr-1998

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.478ame =0.562rmse =0.886

05-May-1998

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.917ame =1.02rmse =1.22

03-Jun-1998

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.485ame =0.585rmse =0.939

06-Jul-1998

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.643ame =0.899rmse =1.27

05-Aug-1998

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.0567ame =0.843rmse =1.01

08-Sep-1998

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =1.08ame =1.29rmse =1.61

07-Oct-1998

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =1.11ame =1.32rmse =1.62

02-Nov-1998

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.196ame =0.196rmse =0.209

14-Dec-1998

Temperature (oC)

CH3D 1999 - 0612

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.069ame =0.069rmse =0.0875

05-Jan-1999CH3D 0612

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.856ame =0.856rmse =0.856

03-Feb-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-1.02ame =1.02rmse =1.02

02-Mar-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.512ame =0.512rmse =0.536

23-Mar-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.303ame =0.303rmse =0.418

06-Apr-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.369ame =0.54rmse =0.769

19-Apr-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.0397ame =0.496rmse =0.591

05-May-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.287ame =0.428rmse =0.528

24-May-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.298ame =0.368rmse =0.443

08-Jun-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.842ame =0.968rmse =1.28

07-Jul-1999

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25


20-Jul-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.762ame =0.822rmse =1.07

03-Aug-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25


17-Aug-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.55ame =0.811rmse =1.15

08-Sep-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.06ame =0.489rmse =0.564

21-Sep-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.428ame =0.844rmse =0.998

05-Oct-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.51ame =0.525rmse =0.865

02-Nov-1999

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25


07-Dec-1999

Temperature (oC)

CH3D 2000 - 0612

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.848ame =0.848rmse =0.848

05-Jan-2000CH3D 0612

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.735ame =0.735rmse =0.757

08-Feb-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.637ame =0.637rmse =0.644

07-Mar-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.824ame =0.824rmse =0.837

21-Mar-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.873ame =0.873rmse =1.12

04-Apr-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.499ame =0.592rmse =0.711

02-May-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.528ame =0.589rmse =0.822

16-May-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-1.03ame =1.07rmse =1.37

13-Jun-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.57ame =0.67rmse =0.888

05-Jul-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.809ame =0.917rmse =1.55

18-Jul-2000

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.85ame =0.876rmse =1.16

08-Aug-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25


22-Aug-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.337ame =0.52rmse =0.669

06-Sep-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.579ame =0.887rmse =1.01

19-Sep-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.487ame =1.01rmse =1.23

03-Oct-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.765ame =1.26rmse =1.45

31-Oct-2000

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.0978ame =0.0978rmse =0.134

04-Dec-2000

Temperature (oC)

CH3D 2001 - 0612

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.309ame =0.309rmse =0.309

03-Jan-2001CH3D 0612

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.576ame =0.576rmse =0.576

31-Jan-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.442ame =0.442rmse =0.502

27-Feb-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.265ame =0.265rmse =0.288

20-Mar-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.589ame =0.589rmse =0.66

03-Apr-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.484ame =0.522rmse =0.629

17-Apr-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.327ame =0.359rmse =0.459

02-May-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.383ame =0.532rmse =0.657

21-May-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.143ame =0.409rmse =0.479

30-May-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.527ame =0.68rmse =0.806

19-Jun-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.682ame =0.804rmse =1.04

02-Jul-2001

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.577ame =0.68rmse =0.911

17-Jul-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.02ame =0.213rmse =0.286

07-Aug-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.85ame =0.951rmse =1.34

21-Aug-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.646ame =0.898rmse =1.46

05-Sep-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.261ame =0.684rmse =0.788

18-Sep-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.37ame =0.922rmse =0.975

02-Oct-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.394ame =0.748rmse =0.838

06-Nov-2001

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.414ame =0.414rmse =0.414

03-Dec-2001

Temperature (oC)

CH3D 2002 - 0612

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.616ame =0.616rmse =0.621

09-Jan-2002CH3D 0612

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.691ame =0.691rmse =0.691

28-Jan-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.539ame =0.539rmse =0.551

05-Mar-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.586ame =0.586rmse =0.586

18-Mar-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.636ame =0.636rmse =0.942

02-Apr-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.196ame =0.475rmse =0.497

17-Apr-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.0592ame =0.337rmse =0.411

07-May-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.636ame =0.94rmse =1.34

21-May-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.462ame =0.847rmse =1.32

04-Jun-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.689ame =0.89rmse =1.28

18-Jun-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.00681ame =0.766rmse =0.845

01-Jul-2002

Dep

th (m

)

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.37ame =1.25rmse =1.5

16-Jul-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.47ame =0.977rmse =1.07

07-Aug-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =-0.0861ame =1.38rmse =1.56

19-Aug-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.373ame =1.33rmse =1.43

04-Sep-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =1.22ame =1.36rmse =1.62

17-Sep-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.787ame =1.42rmse =1.66

07-Oct-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =1.56ame =1.63rmse =1.96

04-Nov-2002

Temperature (oC)

0 10 20

0

5

10

15

20

25

30bias =0.433ame =0.433rmse =0.644

03-Dec-2002

Temperature (oC)

Model Error Statistics

NOPME )( −Σ=

NOP

AME)−Σ

=

NOPRMSE

2)( −Σ=

OOP

RE Σ−Σ

=)(

Mean Error (Bias)

Absolute Mean Error

Root Mean Square Error

Relative Error

Lake Sammamish CH3DModel Error Statistics

Number of Comparisons 4,891 Mean Error (bias) -0.28 oC Absolute Mean Error (AME) 0.80 oC Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)

1.10 oC

Relative Mean Error (%) 6.4

LAKE SAMMAMISH CH3DMean Annual Errors, 1995-2002

-2

-1

0

1

2

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Erro

r, o C Bias

AMERMSE

Lake Sammamish CH3DModel Error Statistics

Wind Adjustment Factor

0.60 0.60 0.80 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85

Sea-Tac vs. SSAMM RUSSAir Temperature Comparison

All data (outliers removed)

Sea-Tac Air Temp (oC)

0 10 20 30

RU

SS

Air

Tem

p (o C

)

0

10

20

30

ObservationsLinear Regression95% Prediction Intervals1:11:1

y = 0.95(x) + 1.52r2 = 0.9282


0 10 20 30

RU

SS

Air

Tem

p (o C

)

0

10

20

30

ObservationsRegression95% Prediction Intervals1:1

y = 0.92(x) + 1.38r2 = 0.9347


7 AM to 6 PM


0 10 20 30

RU

SS

Air

Tem

p (o C

)

0

10

20

30

ObservationsRegression95% Prection Intervals1:1


7 PM to 6 AM

y = 1.05(x) + 0.86r2 = 0.9295

Lake Sammamish CH3D Surface Temperatures

Lake Sammamish CH3D Longitudinal Temperatures

CH3D Velocity Animation

Conclusions

new development of a 3-d hydrodynamic model for lake sammamish · 2014. 9. 22. · lakes background...

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