new business models for electric vehicles: perspective from frost & sullivan, gm, peugeot...
TRANSCRIPT
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New Business Models for Electric Vehicles:
Perspective from Frost & Sullivan, GM, Peugeot
Citroën and Think’s Senior Executives
December 17, 20093:00 P.M. GMT / 10:00 A.M. EST
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Today’s Presenters
Tobias Reich,
Marketing Director Electric Vehicles
PSA Peugeot Citroën
Anthony L. Posawatz, P.E. (Tony)
Vehicle Line Director, Chevrolet Volt
Global Electric Vehicle Development
GM
Sarwant Singh, Global Partner Automotive &
Transportation Practice Director
Frost & Sullivan
Benny Daniel, Consultant
Frost & Sullivan
Richard Canny, CEO
Think
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Current Electric Vehicle Industry Structure: Provides opportunity for a new entity
called Integrator to bring the EV services and value proposition together
Could work to improve charging time and safety
Infrastructure
supplier
Key Responsibility:
Development of
Charging
Infrastructure
Key Responsibility:
Promotion of EV
use
Utilities Integrator OEMs
System/Battery Manufacturers
GovernmentCharging Station
Manufacturers
Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs
and Government
Subsidies for
EV purchase
and
investment in
R&D to reduce
emissions
Lower fuel
dependency by
expanding the
use of
renewable
energy sources
Supplies
infrastructure to
distribute their
energy
Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel
Development of
performing
batteries
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• OEMs develop own / source charge stations
• Utilities –through renewable energy sources
• Consumers –through the excess energy generated from solar / turbine installations
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Integrators may own and operate certain EV services provided to consumers, while sourcing others from strategic partners.
• Utilities develop their own / sources charge stations
• Integrators develop their own stations
• Integrators source stations from third-party manufacturers
• OEMs selling through distributor networks
• OEMs using Internet-based sales channels
• OEMs selling through integrator networks
• Utilities emerging as OEM partners
• OEMs from distributor networks
• Battery swap specialists
• Utilities –showcasing engineering expertise
• IT industry or extension arm of OEMs for fleet mgmt.
• Integrators –through central control centres
• Mobile and network service providers
• Transportation industry (rail, trams, buses and so on)
• Charging station manufacturers
• Telematic/ navigation services
• OEMs through distributor networks
• Battery suppliers
• Utilities –showcasing green credentials
• Recycling companies
Po
ss
ible
Se
rvic
e O
wn
ers
hip
/
Pa
rtn
ers
hip
Sc
en
ari
os
Charging / Battery
Stations
Power / EnergyEV Charge Payment
OptionsEV Sales
Maintenance/
After-sales Service
Recycling / Battery
Recovery
Serv
ices
Definition of an Integrator - Innovative enterprise that forms the single business interface managing diverse services delivered to the EV consumer
• Integrators’battery swapping divisions
6 * 2 * 5 * 4 * 4 * 5 = 4,800 Theoretical Ownership / Partnership Combinations
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Business Models Analysis: EVs will be sold through new channels such as subscription-based energy packages to offset the initial high cost of lithium-ion batteries
~ €900-€1,500€500- €800Up to €350Up to €150MONTHLY
LEASE
Free car40% car priceNANASUBSIDY
7 years4 yearsNANACONTRACT
(Illustration Only)
Flat: 30,000 kms/yearFlat: 25,000
kms/year
Flat: Maximum 2,000
kms/month
Monthly BillENERGY
(Illustration Only)
Maintenance Package+
Insurance+100%
Discount
Maintenance
Package+ Discount
Energy Package+
Maintenance
Partial Battery
Lease + Electricity
COVER
Full SubsidyPart SubsidyMaintenance PackageEnergy PackageTYPE
Business Model 4Business Model 3Business Model 2Business Model 1
Flexible Contract
Pay as you goMaximum number of
milesUnlimited Miles
Flexible Mileage
The customer opts for the number of years and a flexible mileage-customised lease
Other Possible Leasing Models Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Breakdown of Energy Packages - Innovation lies in offsetting the high initial EV
cost by clubbing after-sales services as a subscription energy package
Subscription
per MonthRebates Car Price
Battery
Cost
Public
Charging
Battery
SwappingInsurance Maint.
Battery
Recovery
Car
Recovery
Ass.
ENERGY PACKAGE 1����€150 / month
����40% Battery Recovery
ENERGY PACKAGE 2����€350 / month����40% Battery Recovery
ENERGY PACKAGE 3����€800 / month
����60% subsidy����0% Battery Recovery
ENERGY PACKAGE 4����€1,500 / month
����100% subsidy
����0% Battery Recovery
PART
40%
40%
€150
€350
€800
€1500
60%
pric
e d
iffere
nce
betw
een
EV
s a
nd
IC e
ng
ine
veh
icle
s
€3,000
€3,000
AFTER-SALES SERVICESCOSTS
Source: Frost & Sullivan
(65%)
(70%)
(80%)
(100%)
(60%)
(75%)
(100%)
(100%)
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Fleet Customer Total Cost of Ownership Analysis : A service Offering
around €550 to €650 Will Resonate Well with the Fleet Customer
Question: Please estimate how much you spend on the following per month (Euros) – based on 100 Fleet Manager Interviews in France, UK and Germany
• Interestingly, fuel amounts for up to 2/3 of fleet running costs across businesses interviewed with Business Delivery and Public sector seeing it take up the largest share of their Cost of Ownership
• EV’s should aim to address the Fuel and Road Taxing costs for businesses * Based on 93 Interviews with Fleet Drivers who are involved in the choice and running costs of their vehicle
Builing &
Maintenance
Bus Delivery Car Rental Public Sector Postal Utility
Fuel Maintenance Financing Leasing Insurance Road TaxRoad Congestion Others
€645 €627
€265
€546
€435
€396
27%
56%
28%
63%
53% 63%
€645 €627
€265
€546
€435
€396
27%
56%
28%
63%
53% 63%
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CAGR = 161%
(Over 5 years)
CAGR = 127%
(Revenue Opportunity to start from 3rd year)
CAGR = 242%
(Over 5 years)
CAGR = 153%
(Revenue Opportunity to start from 3rd year)
CAGR = 158%
(Over 5 years)
CAGR = 153%
(Over 5 years)
CAGR = 242%
(Over 5 years)
CAGR
€150K - €165K6. Revenues from Music Download
€ 340Mn - € 345Mn7. Revenues from Others
€25K - €27K5. Revenues from Garage Referrals
€600K - €625K4. Revenues from Diagnostics
€490Mn - €500Mn3. Revenues from Installation & Maintenance of Charging Stations
€650Mn - €700Mn2. Revenues from selling Charging Stations
€390Mn - €400Mn1. Revenues from Selling Electricity
Calculated over 5 yearsSource Of Revenue Generation
Utilities Business Model – Revenue Generating Opportunities Are Mainly Outside Selling
Energy
Capital Investment(1st yr)
Fixed & Operating Cost
TOTAL: €1.9Bn - €2Bn
€640Mn - €650Mn
€48Mn - €50MnIncludes:
�New Energy Capacity
�Network Recurring Cost
�Charging Station Purchase Cost
�Installation and Maintenance cost
�Logistics, Admin, Selling, general , rental, Marketing and Labour Cost
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Q&A
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Next Steps
� Request a strategic approach document for EV Growth Partnership Service or Growth Consulting Service� to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company.
([email protected]) +44 (0)20 7343 8383
� Frost & Sullivan Workshop: Growth Opportunities and New Business Models in the Electric Vehicles MarketDates: Tuesday 26th (1:00pm – 3:00pm) January 2010
Venues: EDTA Conference and Annual Meeting at the Washington Auto Show (www.electricdrive.org)
� Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation and Leadership 2010: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on � Corporate Growth London, United Kingdom, 17th to 19th May 2010
� (www.gil-global.com)
� Register for Frost & Sullivan Annual Electric Vehicle Workshop: ELECTRIC VEHICLES UNPLUGGED� New Business Models and Infrastructure Development Trends
Dates: Tuesday 22nd (afternoon) and Wednesday 23rd June (all day) 2010Venues: The Lords Terrace in the House of Lords and the SMMT
� Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity� Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news)
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For Additional Information
Monika Kwiecinska
Corporate Communications
+48 223904127
Cyril Cromier
Sales Director
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