new base 777 special 01 februaury 2016

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NewBase 01 February 2016 - Issue No. 776 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi

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GCC: Transparency, clarity key to tackle energy challenges in Mideast Saudi Gazette

Energy demand continues and will continue to grow among GCC countries, forecasts Andreas Kyrilis, Principal at Boston Consulting Group Middle East.

Going forward, he said the question of how to make optimal use of energy resources is set to become a burning topic – especially as standards of living become higher, energy demand increases and new supply sources come on stream.

In the MENA region, in particular, the collective annual primary energy consumption – across countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar – has surged from 310 MTOE to 395 MTOE in the past five years, he noted. “This figure – which represents a 4.5% increase year-on-year – is the result of the rising energy demand of fast-growing populations and the push towards diversification through the development of a strong local industrial base driven by the petrochemicals sector,” Kyrilis said.

Available resources are not going to be adequately meeting demand domestically in a few years, he further said. In addition, there has been a parallel rise in rates of domestic energy consumption and population growth in the GCC, the latter which increased by 4.1 % annually from 2000 to 2014. This, of course, makes effectively managing energy – across the region – a pressing concern, he pointed out.

Kyrilis suggests that countries should adopt a strategic, holistic approach toward optimizing all aspects of the energy sector, saying “an integrated energy

strategy is an imperative necessity for countries looking to extract more value from their resources.” He explained that “as part of the strategy, overarching key principles should be followed. These include establishing deep integration between resource utilization and economic




objectives at a national level; shifting some of the focus away from the monetary benefits of hydrocarbon exports; and, building a more diversified economy through investments across the energy value chain.”

More importantly all important aspects of energy should be observed in a coherent and coordinated manner rather than through individual initiatives – decisions that affect the everyday habits of the public regarding electricity and transportation fuel prices for private and industrial use, installation of energy efficient technologies, building code regulation should be taken in tandem with the plan for deployment renewable and nuclear technologies and central oil and gas production, Kyrilis stressed.

“This will ensure that all decisions are purposeful and not apply strain on living conditions if other more effective ways of saving energy exist.”

To make this happen, he underscored that it is important that all energy related regulation and policymaking is taking place with strong coordination among the existing policymakers, who in the case of energy can comprise a very broad network representing producers and consumers of energy: industry, commerce, transportation, economic development, and urban development are a few of the sectors that can have a strong influence in national energy policymaking.

“Due to the complex nature of the relationships though,” Kyrilis said “it is crucial that all stakeholders are aligned around certain key goals at national level (typically economic development/diversification, security of supply, resource sustainability and cost competitiveness). Transparency and clarity around common goals will ensure that there is clear understanding of the purpose behind sometimes difficult changes in the existing regulation (e.g. retail fuel prices) and support driving change at national level.”




Kuwait – Saudi Neutral Zone oil spat a division The National + Robin Mills ( images by NewBase)

When the oil man John Paul Getty’s geologist saw a small hill from his airplane in 1948, he knew it was the place to drill. Paul Walton was negotiating for the oil exploration rights to the Neutral Zone, a specially demarcated area between Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

After five dry wells, Getty at last persuaded his partners to drill the hill Walton had spotted, discovering the giant Wafra field. It made Getty a billionaire and America’s richest man. The geologist received a US$1,200 bonus.

With a capacity of 500,000 barrels per day, the zone, about as big as the combined areas of Dubai and Sharjah, can today produce more oil than the whole of Australia.

But for its current owners, the Neutral Zone is more headache than bonanza, with production shut down since October 2014 in an escalating dispute.

This kerfuffle attracts little attention compared to other Middle East conflicts, but it is surprisingly important for energy markets.

Though Kuwait’s emir, Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah, said on January 21 that the argument would soon be

resolved, there is not much sign on the ground of a solution. The Neutral Zone has always been an anomaly. It was discovered and developed by smaller independent companies, not the majors such as BP and Exxon who found most Saudi and Kuwaiti oil.

After the discovery of Wafra in 1953, other large fields were located, including the giant Khafji offshore field. The zone was formally partitioned between the two countries in 1970, but they continue to share its resources. After foreign interests were nationalised across the Middle East, the Neutral Zone was almost the only large producing asset to remain with an international company.

Texaco bought Getty Oil in 1984 in one of the classic takeover sagas, and itself merged with Chevron in 2001. In 2009, Saudi Arabia angered the Kuwaitis by renewing Chevron’s concession without consulting them.

Chevron’s offices in the Neutral Zone are located on the land of the planned Ras Al Zour refinery, and Kuwait has sought to evict them.




With an escalating series of disputes, Saudi Arabia shut down Khafji in October 2014 on the pretext of environmental violations, and the rest of the Neutral Zone in May last year. The dispute has also held up development of the badly needed gas from the offshore Dorra field, also part-claimed by Iran.

In July last year, Kuwait’s Al Rai newspaper published a letter from the Kuwaiti oil minister at the time, Ali Al Omair, to his Saudi peer, Ali Al Naimi, accusing the Saudi government of forcing an illegal shutdown of Khafji and claiming compensation.

The closure will be particularly frustrating to Chevron, whose share of the Saudi part of the onshore zone is its only large Middle East upstream asset, and a source of low-cost barrels. The US supermajor was implementing a pilot steam-injection project to recover some of billions of hitherto untapped heavy oil.

With oil prices driven to decadal lows by the imminent return of Iran, which could perhaps add half a million barrels per day, it is remarkable that the comparable shut-in capacity at the Neutral Zone has not attracted more attention. Chevron says it would take it six months to get back to full production.

However, the dispute has been convenient to the Saudis. They can make up the lost production by increasing output elsewhere, so they are effectively shifting the burden on to an Opec colleague. Kuwait has partly compensated by ramping up its largest field, Burgan, but this may not be sustainable.

The unedifying squabble is more damaging to Kuwait, the weaker partner, which has little leverage. At a time that GCC unity is required on the energy and diplomatic fronts, it is surprising that a scrap of desert still divides two of the Arabian Gulf’s closest allies. Robin Mills is the chief executive of Qamar Energy and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis.




Libya’s $60bn in lost oil shows risk of failed state Bloomberg + NewBase

Libya’s rival political factions must quickly form a unity government to stop the country with Africa’s largest oil reserves from collapsing into a “failed state,” National Oil Corp chairman Mustafa Sanalla said.

Libya has lost $60bn in production and exports as a result of disruptions at oil ports and fields over the last three years, and attacks by Islamic State militants have caused “tremendous” damage to the oil industry in the last two weeks, Sanalla said in an e-mailed statement.

“Their objective is to prevent the new government from stabilising the economy,” he said of the militants. “They are not trying to occupy oil facilities, only to disable them. Their attacks have been very targeted, and they have managed to achieve a considerable level of damage with very few people. We should expect more such attacks.”

Libya produced about 1.6mn bpd of crude before the 2011 rebellion that ended Muammar Al Gaddafi’s 42- year rule. It’s now the smallest producer in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumping 362,000 bpd, Sanalla said last week in an in interview in London. Since Gaddafi’s ouster and death, Libya has split into two separately run regions, one in the west and an internationally recognised government in the east. Various armed militias also compete for control of oil facilities.

The National Oil Corp in the west, headed by Sanalla, is recognised by traders such as Glencore and Vitol Group as the official marketer of Libyan oil. The eastern government has set up a separate NOC administration, which represents Libya in matters relating to oil including Opec. Representatives of the nation’s two duelling administrations took a tentative step toward easing the turmoil when they agreed on January 19 to form a 32-member cabinet, in talks backed by the UN.




However, the eastern government’s parliament voted to reject the proposed unity cabinet, Esam al-Jihani, a member of the eastern House of Representatives, said last Monday from the city of Benghazi. The parliament was concerned that the cabinet contained too many ministers, he said.

“Without a single government, there will be neither security nor stability,” Sanalla said in the statement. “Extremists will step into the vacuum, and Libya will decline further to lawlessness and chaos.”

The Petroleum Facilities Guard, a force loyal to the government in eastern Libya, has failed to protect the nation’s oil facilities, and attacks by militants have cost the country more than half of its storage capacity for oil, he said. The NOC could double production within days if the petroleum guard “left us in peace,” Sanalla said in the interview.

The company is currently exporting 260,000 bpd, and it expects the loss of storage capacity at the oil ports of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf to curb future shipments, he said. Islamic State fighters attacked storage tanks in Es Sider, Libya’s biggest oil port, and nearby Ras Lanuf earlier last month. Both terminals have been closed to oil exports since December 2014.

The NOC has also lost 100,000 bpd of capacity due to disuse at the El Feel, or Elephant, and Sharara oil fields, he said. The company plans to sit down “soon” for talks with international oil companies, Sanalla said.

“The international oil community has remained patient and supportive of Libya and the National Oil Corp,” he said. “We must act now to repay that trust, by creating a safe environment for all to operate under. This can only be achieved through a unity

government.”




Philippines:Ten Million Reasons Why Falling Oil Might Hurt Bloomberg - Ditas B Lopez

Cheap oil should be a good thing for a country like the Philippines that imports almost all of its

fuel, but there are 10 million reasons why that may not be the case.

That’s how many Filipinos work overseas, many of them on rigs, tankers and as domestic help or construction workers in oil-producing nations in the Middle East. Together they sent home $22.8 billion in the first 11 months of 2015, around 10 percent of gross domestic product. The potential for a slowdown in remittances is being closely monitored, the central bank said last week.

A prolonged period of oil at less than $30 a barrel could create an economic headache for the successor to President Benigno Aquino, who steps down in June, and may rub some of the shine off the peso, Southeast Asia’s best-performing currency over the past year. The negative impact on remittances and less revenue from fuel taxes will outweigh the positive effects, according to Benjamin Diokno, the country’s budget secretary from 1998 to 2001.

“We’re heavily dependent on overseas Filipino workers,” said Diokno, who is now an economics professor at the University of the Philippines in Manila. “Some of them are coming home also in part due to war, which only magnifies the problem.” More Widespread

The share of remittances coming from the Middle East could be as high as 40 percent, compared with 23 percent in the official data, according to a Jan. 27 research note by Michael Wan, a Credit




Suisse Group AG analyst in Singapore. Remittance growth slowed to 3.6 percent in dollar terms last year through November, from 5.8 percent in 2014, central bank data show. Volumes have held up reasonably well so far, said Wan.

That could change as the impact of a 35 percent drop in Brent crude over the past six months forces Saudi Arabia to cut generous subsidies to its citizens, while the United Arab Emirates’ Etihad Rail suspended a major rail project this week after firing almost a third of its workforce. Brent recovered to around $34 on Friday after falling to a 12-year low of $27.10 a barrel on Jan. 20.

“Before, when the trouble would be concentrated in one of the countries in the Middle East and North Africa, the workers could just simply move to a neighboring country and find employment,” central bank Governor Amando Tetangco said Jan. 25. “Now the trouble is more widespread.”

As well as declining oil prices, a more general slowdown in global trade is affecting the job prospects of Filipino seamen. Many drillers and oil-service companies have suspended operations and shipping companies are also hurting, said Nelson Ramirez, the president of United Filipino Seafarers.

“I have talked to one of the biggest crew suppliers of offshore vessels,” he said in Manila. “They have many laid-up ships. There will be more job losses.” Bigger Cutbacks

That could take a toll on the Philippines’ current-account surplus, which narrowed to $5.6 billion in the nine months through September from $6.8 billion in the year-earlier period, according to the central bank. Gross domestic product, already rising the fastest among Southeast Asia’s major economies at a 5.8 percent pace in 2015, will increase 6 percent this year, a Bloomberg survey shows.

While there’s already a slowdown in remittance growth from the Middle East, the current account will remain in surplus, said Joey Cuyegkeng, an economist at ING Groep NV in Manila. He forecast the peso, which dropped 7.4 percent over the past 12 months, will fall another 2.4 percent by the end of the year.

External risks are on the rise, but the Philippines has enough buffers in place including $80.6 billion of foreign-exchange reserves and growing revenue from its business-process outsourcing industry, said Paulo Magpale, treasurer at BDO Private Bank Inc. in Manila.

“We won’t be shaken easily during bad times,” said Magpale, who forecast the peso will strengthen 1.4 percent by the end of the year.

Slowing remittance growth is unlikely to have a major impact on Philippine GDP, according to Credit Suisse’s Wan, who is forecasting expansion of 6.2 percent this year. Weaker private consumption usually leads to expatriate Filipinos sending more money home to help families through tough times and savings on fuel costs will spur domestic spending, he said.

“The real test might be yet to come,” said Wan. ”If oil prices continue to head lower, we could see bigger cutbacks by Middle East governments, which will weigh on remittance prospects.”




Iran Faces a Long Road to Recovery Bloomberg - Golnar Motevalli

Away from the offices and hotels where Iranian officials greet foreign executives, the narrow, winding walkways of Tehran’s bazaars are a stream of chattering shoppers stocking up on reality.

It’s been two weeks since sanctions were formally removed from Iran’s economy on Jan. 16 and something else is already audible again beneath the traders’ appeals to would-be customers ambling past their fruits, spices and housewares: the groans of concern and caution over the country’s future.

“I can’t really be optimistic, we’re long passed that point now,” said Vahid, 37, who has worked on his family’s stall selling luggage at the Tajrish bazaar since he was a child. The cost of living is too high after rampant inflation and people have no spending power, he said. “For the economy to change, everything has to be turned on its head.”

Compared with the cheering and honking of car horns in Tehran when the nuclear deal was inked last year, there’s been little reveling. Iranians knew they weren’t going to wake up to a new prosperity, and what’s dawned on them is the long and arduous journey they face as the country plugs back into the global economy. 20 Years

The tightening of sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program in 2011 shrank the $420 billion economy by about 9 percent over the following two years, according to the International Monetary Fund. Measures included oil exports to the European Union and full isolation from foreign banks. Inflation jumped to as high as 45 percent as importers brought in goods through the back door, hiking costs.

Prices still yoyo on a seemingly daily basis. Most of Iran’s major banks have largely restored contact with the wider world’s SWIFT transactions system, yet European counterparts are examining the risks of working with an industry years behind international standards of compliance and transparency. Getting paid can be hard: the government owes suppliers almost $200 million,




a lawmaker in the parliament’s budget and planning commission, told the Iranian Labour News Agency in December.

There’s been a flurry of investment promises from foreign companies such as PSA Peugeot Citroen and Daimler AG and returning to the oil market can only help. But it’s after the price of crude fell to a third of what it was in November 2013 when the initial agreement on how to end sanctions was reached.

“What has been destroyed in four years will take 20 years to rebuild,” said Navid Tammadon, 44, who owns a jewelers in small gold and diamond trading center a corner of the Tajrish market. “Yesterday we saw gold come down a bit and today it went up again, so to me that shows the economy is not good.” Pricey Chocolate

At the entrance to the bazaar, a store called Shemiran Super is stacked with European and U.S. food brands. Hershey’s sauces sit alongside Cadbury chocolate bars, while a gleaming red and chrome Italian coffee machine serves customers espresso.

While foodstuffs, like medicines, were exempt from the sanctions, businesses were unable to work with foreign banks and pay for imports. So they imported goods illegally. Pouriya, 42, the store’s owner, used contacts in Dubai to ship over stock bought at a Carrefour SA in the emirate.

“Sanctions removal has only just started, so it’s too soon to feel any change,” said Pouriya, who like baggage seller Vahid didn’t want his family name disclosed when talking to foreign media. “Now they’re busy buying planes and trains. Let them do that first, let’s see what happens with that then we can worry about what I’m trying to sell in here.”

He points to a Galaxy chocolate bar with a British 1 pound ($1.40) label on it. It’s on sale for 160,000 rials ($5.30), more than three times that. Peugeot Showroom

Tehranis don’t doubt that they also face what could be one of the most pivotal periods in Iran’s history. To fix the economy, President Hassan Rouhani is seeking up to $50 billion of foreign investment a year and aims to increase tax revenues by 15 percent, all while weaning Iran off oil.

Executives from Airbus Group SE, Deutsche Lufthansa AG, and Bombardier Inc. already courted the Iranians, as have French pharmaceutical chiefs. Last week, richer Tehranis enjoyed the opening of a dealership for automaker Peugeot’s DS luxury line less than a 10 minute taxi ride from the Tajrish market.

Parviz Karimi, marketing manager at Blue Gulf Shipping Services in the Iranian capital, said it feels like his phone has been ringing incessantly. Businesspeople from Japan, Switzerland and the U.K. are scheduling to visit him, he says. Sick Economy

Back at the bazaar, shoppers and traders may have gotten used to needing patience, but many say time isn’t on Iran’s side. Housewife Mahnaz Mohkdari and her sister Shahnaz were scouring lush fruit and vegetables for the weekend. They expected prices to have started to come down already, and were disappointed when days went by and nothing happened. “Iran’s economy hasn’t just got a cold, it’s as though it has cancer, said Mahnaz, 49. “It’s much harder to treat.”




NewBase 01 February 2016 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

Oil falls as Asia economies slow, prospect of crude output

cut dims REUTERS + NEWBASE

Oil prices dropped early on Monday after China and South Korea posted surprisingly weak economic data and on worries the prospect of a coordinated production cut by leading crude exporters seemed remote.

Front-month Brent crude was trading at $35.54 per barrel at 0157 GMT, down 45 cents, or 1.25 percent, from the last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down 35 cents at $33.27 a barrel.

Activity in China's manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest pace in almost three-and-a-half years in January, missing market expectations.

The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.4 in January, compared with the previous month's reading of 49.7 and below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. It is the weakest index reading since August 2012, and analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a reading of 49.6.

Oil price special

coverage




In South Korea, exports posted an 18.5 percent year-on-year drop to $36.7 billion, down to levels last seen at the height of the global financial crisis in 2009.

The data from China and South Korea are the latest indicators of an accelerating slowdown in Asia's biggest economies.

At the same time, the prospects of a coordinated cut in production by leading exporters like the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia seem difficult to realise due to differences between these producers.

Also, OPEC-member Iran, which last month was allowed to fully return to markets after years of sanctions, is not willing to participate in any cuts.

"The lack of political will may hinder prospects for a deal," ANZ bank said.

In part because of Iran's return, OPEC oil production has jumped to 32.60 million barrels per day, its highest in years, adding to a global glut that is seeing over 1 million barrels of crude produced every day in excess of demand, pulling down prices around 70 percent since mid-2014.

Because of the oversupply, analysts at BMI Research said on Monday that it had reduced its oil price outlook: "We have downgraded our 2016 Brent forecast to $40 per barrel from $42.5 previously."

Its expectation for WTI was to average $39.50 per barrel this year.

"Counteracting oil's upside momentum in 2016 will be the weakness of the Chinese yuan, lingering concerns over global economic growth and the well-stocked inventories of crude and fuels," BMI said, adding that a gradual price rise was expected in the second half of the year.




Lower-for-Longer View for Oil Means More M&A Deals on the Way Oil and natural-gas acquisitions will increase this year as a collapse in energy prices weakens companies’ finances, forcing them to accept lower valuations from buyers, according to consultants Ernst & Young LLP.

There will be more “motivated sellers and more consensus on valuations in a period of lower-for-longer prices,” EY said Monday in a report. “Consolidation will be driven by overcapacity, intense margin pressures and generally weaker capital markets.”

The total value of oil and gas deals dropped 17 percent to $380 billion last year while the number of transactions fell by a third, according to the report. When Royal Dutch Shell Plc agreed to snap up BG Group Plc in April in its biggest ever acquisition, some analysts expected a wave of deals to follow, yet oil-price volatility meant buyers and sellers were unable to agree on valuations.

“Deferring transactions until prices return to higher levels and/or become less volatile will no longer be a viable option for many oil and gas companies,” EY wrote. “Transaction volumes should increase in 2016.” OPEC Strategy

The number of deals in the oilfield services industry dropped 40 percent to 193 last year, according to the report. Transactions in oil and gas exploration and production fell 38 percent to 910.

Oil prices have tumbled since mid-2014 as supply growth outpaced demand. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by the world’s biggest exporter Saudi Arabia, has preferred to continue pumping to defend market share amid increasing output from the U.S. and Russia. Prices fell to the lowest in 12 years last month. Brent crude, the global benchmark, has since recovered to about $34 a barrel.

In terms of value, oilfield-services deals declined about 63 percent in 2015 as oil producers reduced drilling budgets and canceled rig orders, making the service companies less attractive, according to the report. Exploration and production deals, including Shell’s purchase of BG, dropped 19 percent. Refining and oil-marketing transactions rose as assets were sold in the U.S.

“While it is always difficult to call the bottom, the belief in 2015 was that 2016 was going to be more challenging from a price and financing perspective,” EY said. “Looking further forward, one could hope that 2017 will see the beginnings of a recovery -- if 2016 is indeed the low-water mark, then a wave of opportunistic transactions, perhaps deferred from 2015, can be anticipated this year.”




NewBase Special Coverage

News Agencies News Release 01 February 2016

The Oil Crash Is Kicking Off One of the Largest Wealth Transfers In Human History

Bloomberg - Joe Weisenthal

Economists are still hotly debating whether the oil crash has been a net positive for advanced economies. Optimists argue that cheap oil is a good thing for consumers and commodity-sensitive businesses, while pessimists point to the hit to energy-related investment and possible spillover into the financial system.

A new note from Francisco Blanch at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, however, puts the oil move into a much bigger perspective, arguing that a sustained price plunge "will push back $3 trillion a year from oil producers to global consumers, setting the stage for one of the largest transfers of wealth in human history."




Blanch and his team already see evidence that the fall in the price of crude is having a positive impact on demand, and say that it could accelerate even further if prices don't pick up.

Says Blanch: "Alternatively in a lower oil price scenario, e.g. if prices were to average just $40 over the next five years which is close to the current forward curve, demand would grow by 1.5 million barrels per day, which is 0.3 above our base case. Finally, at $20 oil demand would grow by an explosive by 1.7 per year on average, 0.5 above the base case, on our estimates."

Meanwhile, in emerging markets, where much of the story of late has been about disappointing economic growth, Blanch still sees huge upside potential in terms of automobile penetration and consumption.

Take China for example, where the strategist sees the oil plunge helping to fuel a boom in SUV sales: "Moreover, the low oil price is encouraging Chinese consumers to buy increasingly larger cars. Sales of SUVs, the heaviest passenger vehicles category, are up 60 percent year-on-year in the last three months, while overall passenger vehicle sales are growing robustly at 22 percent."

And it's not just emerging markets where the impact of cheaper gasoline is being seen.

After years of stagnation, vehicle miles traveled in the U.S. clearly ticked higher in 2015.

Combine these trends with the decline in, say, Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves, or the stock price of any oil company, and you can see the dramatic wealth shifts now taking place in the world.




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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &

regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 01 February 2016 K. Al Awadi