new base 745 special 10 december 2015

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 10 December 2015 - Issue No. 745 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE on ‘right track’ to reduce oil reliance: Al Mansouri Gulf News 2015 + NewBase The UAE is on the right track to reducing its reliance on oil, which is expected to account for 20 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 2025, according to Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri, Minister of Economy. In 2014, oil accounted for 30 per cent of the UAE’s economy, the minister said as he reiterated his optimism for 2016 despite the continued fall of oil prices, which dropped five per cent to $38 a barrel during trade on Monday. In 2014, the UAE’s GDP grew 4.6 per cent, reaching Dh1.47 trillion, with the year marking the country’s best economic performance in the past 44 years. While the Minister said he expected 2016 to be slower, he said the country’s economy will continue to grow. “My optimism for the UAE’s economy in 2016 comes from knowing that we’ve been through such cycles before, and we were able to overcome them and grow past them. I’m optimistic about 2016 and seeing positive growth then,” Al Mansouri said. The Minister was speaking on Tuesday at the third UAE Economic Outlook Forum, which runs until December 9 in Abu Dhabi. In its efforts to diversify the economy away from oil, the UAE aims to see increased economic contribution from Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase 10 December 2015 - Issue No. 745 Edited & Produced by: Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

UAE on ‘right track’ to reduce oil reliance: Al Mansouri Gulf News 2015 + NewBase

The UAE is on the right track to reducing its reliance on oil, which is expected to account for 20 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 2025, according to Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri, Minister of Economy.

In 2014, oil accounted for 30 per cent of the UAE’s economy, the minister said as he reiterated his optimism for 2016 despite the continued fall of oil prices, which dropped five per cent to $38 a barrel during trade on Monday.

In 2014, the UAE’s GDP grew 4.6 per cent, reaching Dh1.47 trillion, with the year marking the country’s best economic performance in the past 44 years. While the Minister said he expected 2016 to be slower, he said the country’s economy will continue to grow.

“My optimism for the UAE’s economy in 2016 comes from knowing that we’ve been through such cycles before, and we were able to overcome them and grow past them. I’m optimistic about 2016 and seeing positive growth then,” Al Mansouri said.

The Minister was speaking on Tuesday at the third UAE Economic Outlook Forum, which runs until December 9 in Abu Dhabi. In its efforts to diversify the economy away from oil, the UAE aims to see increased economic contribution from Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

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— a sector that accounted for 60 per cent of the UAE’s non-oil GDP in 2014. Al Mansouri said the government was looking at ways to raise the figure to 70 per cent by 2021.

The UAE also aims to see a five per cent contribution by 2021 from the innovation sector.

“We admit that there are other countries that excelled in fields of innovation and knowledge … and we are in talks with countries in North America, Europe, and Asia about collaborations in order to boost our knowledge economy,” he said, adding that the UAE has invested over Dh300 billion in the fields of knowledge and innovation.

Al Mansouri further said that the industrial sector currently accounts for 14 per cent of GDP, with the figure expected to reach 20 per cent by 2025.

Also speaking at the event was Rashed Al Zaabi, acting executive director of planning and statistics at the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development, who said he expected Abu Dhabi’s average growth rate between 2015 and 2019 to be around “4.2 per cent”.

He added that Abu Dhabi’s non-oil sector alone is expected to grow “4.6 per cent in 2015 and 5.3 per cent in 2016”.

Al Zaabi noted that the emirate’s GDP reached Dh960.1 billion in 2014, marking a three per cent increase from the Dh931.8 billion recorded in 2013. Oil GDP dropped in 2014, however, to reach Dh489.7 billion — down from Dh511.9 billion in 2013.

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3

Qatargas reduces flaring by more than 50%, says Sheikh Khalid Gulf Times

Qatargas has reduced flaring by more than 50% and is currently undertaking several other initiatives to realise the target reduction to below 6,000mmscf (million standard cubic feet) per year by 2017. Moreover, the company is aiming to achieve zero liquid discharge into the sea and improve energy efficiency.

These were disclosed by Qatargas chief operating officer (Engineering and Ventures) Sheikh Khalid bin Abdulla al-Thani at the 9th International Petroleum Technology Conference (IPTC),

which concluded yesterday.

Highlighting the various flare reduction projects, he said the company has been investing heavily in the areas with the objective of achieving a flaring target of less than 0.3% of the sweet gas produced.

In his presentation, he shared insights into some of the major projects Qatargas has recently completed or are currently under development, with the objective of improving energy efficiency and minimising environmental impact in alignment with the goals set by the Qatar National Vision 2030.

These projects included Jetty Boil-off Gas recovery facility, which was completed in October 2014 and is now fully operational. The project has resulted in a 90% reduction in flaring at the six LNG (liquefied natural gas) loading berths at Ras Laffan Port, saving 0.63mn tonnes per year of LNG.

“This amount of gas is capable of powering over 300,000 homes per year and represents a saving of almost 1tn cubic feet of gas for Qatar over a period of 30 years — a significant reduction in the country’s carbon footprint,” Sheikh Khalid said.

On the steps taken to improve energy efficiency, he said one of the key ongoing projects is the ‘QG1 Waste Heat Recovery’ project, which envisages conversion of the existing gas turbine generators into a cogeneration plant thereby having a positive impact on the carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions by improving the overall fuel utilisation efficiency.

At the conference, Qatargas presented 15 research papers, which dealt with the need for a structured approach to create optimised planning and refining the processes and tools with expert stakeholder inputs to optimise and integrate gas production, eliminating the discharge of clean wastewater to the Arabian Gulf, reducing the amount of wastewater sent to injection wells, producing water for reuse as boiler feed water and measures taken by it to minimise unintentional environmental leakage risk of wellbore fluid by effective control of well barrier elements and implementing risk assessment recommendations to avoid unacceptable risk.

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4

Saudia: Need for renewable energy stressed by Forum SG/SPA

The Riyadh Economic Forum (REF) stressed the Kingdom’s need to provide for alternative and renewable energy sources so as to meet the increasing energy needs that are met at increasing rates reaching 4.4 percent annually until 2035.

This would require 350 million tons of oil annually, Saudi Press Agency (SPA) said Wednesday. In order to sustain the Kingdom’s natural resource, the need to look out for alternative sources is imperative, the forum stressed.

The forum emphasized the importance of preparing a national strategy for localizing alternative and renewable energy, considering them to be a top priority in order to protect the Kingdom’s long-term energy security.

The REF also called for laying down an integrated road map to carry out the strategy according to priority, as well as, to encourage the private sector to participate in achieving it.

This was emphasized at the discussions on a study entitled: “The economies of alternative and renewable energy in the Kingdom – challenges and future horizons” during the session held on Wednesday. The session was moderated by Prince Dr. Turki Bin Saud, chairman of King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST). This was the 7th session of REF being held at Riyadh International Conferences and Exhibitions Center in Riyadh.

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

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Member of the team that supervised the preparation of the study Dr. Maher Abdullah Al-Owdan gave a presentation. Participants in the discussions included Saleh Bin Eid Al-Hussaini, chairman of the economic and energy committee in the Shoura Council and Prince Dr. Mamdouh Saud, director of the Center for Sustainable Energy Technologies at King Saud Univerisity .

The study warned against the growing rate of conventional energy consumption in the Kingdom that relies on oil, which represents 85 percent of export revenues. This leaves great pressure on the Kingdom’s export revenues.

Hence it necessitates moving towards achieving sustainability of the energy sector by resorting to developing the alternative and renewable energy sector.

The study estimated that a total of 10 – 17 Giga watts of alternative and renewable energy must be produced by 2025 in the Kingdom whose value is in the range of $4 – 12 billion. During the preliminary stage there will be need for financing in the range of $1 – 2.9 billion to produce 3 Giga watts of alternative and renewable energy by 2020.

When the tempo of using this energy increases, the required financing between 2020 and 2025 will also increase to the range of $4 – 11.8 billion to ensure production of 17 Giga watts. The study drew attention to the existence of many challenges and obstacles in the market before alternative and renewable energy hindering the participation of the private sector. It suggested overcoming these obstacles.

As to the use of nuclear energy to produce power, the study called for formulating a nuclear responsibility regulation and establishing a commission for the management of nuclear waste in order to guarantee safe disposal.

Earlier, a study entitled: “Developing the information technology sector as a catalyst for development and transformation to knowledge-based economy” was discussed.

The study was reviewed in-depth by a host of specialists and those interested in IT sector and knowledge economy at the session, presided over by Dr. Mohammed Bin Suleiman Al-Jasser, the Advisor at the Royal Court. Minister of Communications and Information Technology Dr. Mohammed Al-Suwayel, was also present at the session. He called for the development of legal and legislative frameworks for IT activities in a way that enhances competitiveness and provides active performance of small and medium companies.

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6

Pakistan PM Sharif to Attend TAPI Groundbreaking Ceremony Daily Times + NewBase

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif will visit Turkmenistan on Friday for the inauguration of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, Pakistan’s Daily Times newspaper reported Wednesday.

Parliamentary Secretary for Petroleum and Natural Resources Shahzadi Umarzadi Tiwana told the National Assembly that the project would help overcome shortage of gas in Pakistan.

Construction of much delayed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline is finally expected to commence on Dec. 13.

Turkmengaz, which was named project consortium leader for TAPI project in August, will kick off the construction of the gas pipeline. High level Afghan government officials including, President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani who was invited by his counterpart President Berdymuhamedov, will also expected to attend the ceremony.

TAPI gas pipeline will export up to 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India over 30 years.

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7

Somalia: Soma Oil & Gas applies for Somalia Production Sharing Agreements Source: Soma Oil & Gas

Soma Oil & Gas, the UK-registered oil and gas exploration company focused on Somalia, has announced that, as per the terms of the Seismic Option Agreement (SOA), the company delivered the Exploration Programme data to the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) at a public ceremony in Mogadishu. This completes all Soma’s obligations under the SOA. In addition the company submitted a

Notice of Application for Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs) as per the SOA.

Today’s ceremony in Mogadishu, marked the opening of the new office of the Ministry. The new office has a Data Room with the capability to store & display the Exploration Programme data. The Ministry has appointed Spectrum to market this Exploration Programme data.

Soma’s analysis of the acquired and processed 2D seismic data has identified specific prospects which merit further exploration. The Company submitted Notice of Application to the Ministry for PSAs targeting these prospects.

The conversion of this Notice of Application into PSA awards is dependent on the finalising of a Model PSA by the Ministry, the negotiation of specific PSAs between the Ministry and Soma, a revenue sharing agreement between Federal Member States and the Federal Government of Somalia and final approval of PSA awards by the full Federal Government.

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8

Egypt:BP to acquire additional interest in the West Nile Delta project Source: BP

BP Egypt has announced the completion of its acquisition of 22.75 per cent in the North Alexandria Concession and 2.75 per cent in the West Mediterranean Deep Water Concession from Hamburg-based DEA Deutsche Erdoel. The acquisition will bring BP’s working interest in both concessions of the West Nile Delta project to 82.75 per cent.

The West Nile Delta project agreement, concluded in March 2015, involves the development of 5 trillion cubic feet of gas resources and 55 million barrels of condensates. Production from WND is expected to be around 1.2 billion cubic feet a day (bcf/d), equivalent to about 25 per cent of Egypt’s current gas production. All the produced gas will be fed into the country’s national gas grid. Production is expected to start in 2017.

Commenting on the deal Hesham Mekawi, BP North Africa Regional President said:

'BP is proud of the successful partnership it has had with Egypt for more than 50 years, and its role in the development of Egypt’s energy sector.We are pleased to be increasing our interest in the WND project, which is a strategic project for BP and will play a key role in helping to secure Egypt’s energy supply for many years to come. This deal is another example of our commitment to help unlock Egypt’s oil and gas potential through continued investments.'

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9

Turkey: Russian contractor denies halt to Turkish nuclear power project RT

Turkey's Akkuyu nuclear power plant project is continuing and the construction has not been halted, Oleg Titov the d eputy director general of the Akkuyu Nuclear Company said on Wednesday.

"Nothing has been stopped. The work at the site is underway as scheduled. The talks continue on implementing the project," Titov said. "Moreover, today we held a major meeting at Turkey's Energy Ministry. No one told us about the halt also," he said.

Earlier on Wednesday, Reuters reported, citing unnamed Turkish energy officials, that Russia has halted work on building the nuclear power plant in the country. According to Reuters, Ankara has already started looking for new potential contractors.

Moscow and Ankara signed a deal to build Turkey's first nuclear power plant in 2010. The power plant will have four reactors with a capacity of 4,800 MW, and a service

life expected to be 60 years. The project should provide 17 percent of Turkey's electricity needs.

Russia's state atomic energy corporation Rosatom is in charge of the project worth $22 billion. Russia has already invested around $3 billion.

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10

Norway: Statoil awards Johan Sverdrup pipeline contracts Source: Statoil

Statoil has, on behalf of the Johan Sverdrup partners, awarded contracts for the linepipe, coating and pipe installation of the Johan Sverdrup export pipelines. The total contract value is estimated at slightly less than NOK 2.5 billion, the three contracts cover both the oil and the gas export pipelines for Johan Sverdrup.

The linepipe fabrication contract for the export pipelines was awarded to Mitsui & Co. Norway. Mitsui will deliver 220 000 tonnes of steel for the oil and gas pipelines, totalling 430 kilometres. Linepipe production will start at Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal (NSSMC) steelworks in Japan early in 2016. Wasco Coatings Malaysia was awarded the contract for external anti-corrosion treatment and concrete weight coating for the oil and gas pipelines, as well as internal flow coating for the gas pipeline. The work will be performed at Wasco’s factory in Malaysia in 2017.

Saipem has been awarded the pipe-laying contract for the Johan Sverdrup oil and gas export pipelines. The pipe-laying operation is scheduled to start in the spring of 2018, using the laying vessel CastorOne.

Stabilised oil will be exported to the Mongstad terminal through a new oil pipeline connected to existing storage caverns. The oil export solution consists of a 274-kilometre, 36-inch pipeline to the Mongstad terminal, including required modifications at the terminal. Gas will be exported to Kårstø gas terminal through a new gas pipeline. The gas export solution includes a 156-kilometre, 18-inch pipeline tied in to the Statpipe rich gas pipeline, including a hot-tap hook-up to this pipeline. No modifications are required at Kårstø for the reception of the Johan Sverdrup gas.

The oil and gas export development will meet the transportation needs for all phases of the Johan Sverdrup development.

Contracts worth more than NOK 50 billion have been awarded so far in the Johan Sverdrup project, about 75 percent of which have been landed by suppliers with Norwegian invoice addresses.

The Johan Sverdrup partnership: Statoil (40.0267%) (operator), Lundin Norway (22.6), Petoro (17.36), Det norske oljeselskap (11.5733) and Maersk Oil (8.44).

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11

US: New legislation affects U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Supply Monthly

Two recently enacted laws authorize significant sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over the next decade. The Bipartisan Budget Act authorizes the sale of 58 million barrels of SPR oil between FY 2018-25 for deficit reduction purposes and an estimated 40-50 million barrels of oil in FY 2017-20 for SPR modernization.

As part of the Bipartisan Budget Act, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is required to complete a long-term strategic review of the SPR to ensure it meets current and future energy and economic security goals and objectives. The Fixing America's Surface Transportation Act authorizes the sale of 66 million barrels of oil in FY 2023-25 to help support the Highway Trust Fund.

As the largest stockpile of government-owned emergency crude oil in the world, the SPR is designed to help alleviate significant disruptions in oil supplies from events such as severe weather; major geopolitical events; and unplanned production, transport, and delivery outages.

Located in four storage sites along the Gulf of Mexico, the SPR currently holds more than 695 million barrels of crude oil, or about 96% of its 727 million barrel design capacity. Although the SPR does not store petroleum products, one million barrels of ultra-low sulfur distillate are held in the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve, and one million barrels of gasoline are held in the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve.

As a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States is obligated to maintain stocks of crude oil and petroleum products, both public and private, to provide at least 90 days of import protection and to collectively participate in the release or sale of oil supplies to help balance a shortage among IEA members in the event of a severe energy supply disruption.

Based on September levels of net crude oil and petroleum product imports, the SPR alone holds crude oil stocks equivalent to 156 days of import protection. Including average levels of commercial stocks over the past 5 years, total days of import coverage provided by strategic and commercial stocks is currently 450 days. The IEA obligation is only one consideration for policymakers in determining the size and composition of SPR holdings.

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12

NewBase 10 December - 2015 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

Crude prices edge up on dip in crude inventories, but glut still bites Reuters+ NewBase

Crude oil prices edged up early on Thursday 10/12/2015, supported by a fall in U.S. crude inventories after 10 straight weeks of builds, but a global oversupply and cheap oil are still dominating the broader market.

Crude inventories fell 3.6 million barrels in the week to Dec. 4, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 252,000 barrels, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed.

U.S. crude futures were at $37.40 per barrel at 0106 GMT, up 24 cents from their last settlement, but still not far off this week's seven-year lows below $37 per barrel. Prices are down over 11 percent since the beginning of December.

Internationally traded Brent futures were at $40.35 a barrel, up 24 cents.

The OPEC last week decided not to cut production in defense of prices. It also ditched even formal output quotas as member states compete for market share amongst each other and with outside competitors like Russia and

North American shale drillers.

Between 0.5 and 2 million barrels of crude oil are being produced in excess of demand every day, creating a glut that has pulled down prices by almost two-thirds since 2014 and which is threatening a situation known as "tank-top", in which the market runs out of available storage facilities.

US oil drops nearly 1% despite stock build drop . Despite an expected fall in U.S. production next year, BMI Research said on Thursday that global output was forecast to rise by 500,000 barrels per day in 2016.

"We have downgraded our Brent oil price forecast from $54 per barrel to $51 per barrel for 2016 on the basis of a weaker end to 2015 than previously anticipated. Similarly, we have downgraded WTI to $50 per barrel from $51 per barrel previously," BMI said on Thursday.

Oil price special

coverage

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13

December Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts non-OPEC production decline in 2016

The Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released on December 8 forecasts non-OPEC crude oil and other liquids production to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and then decline by 0.4 million b/d in 2016, which would be the first annual decline in non-OPEC production since 2008. The shift in expectation from non-OPEC production growth to declines in 2016 is mostly because of declines in U.S. onshore and North Sea production (Figure 1).

Non-OPEC production growth in 2015 is largely attributable to investments committed to projects before the oil price decline that began in mid-2014. Redirection of investment away from exploration towards currently producing fields has also helped maintain or increase production levels in other non-OPEC countries. This strategy has helped maintain production levels in the short term, but it will likely result in lower future production in areas that depend on continued exploration successes for output growth.

According to the latest survey-based reporting of monthly crude oil production estimates, U.S. production averaged 9.4 million b/d through the first nine months of 2015. This level is 0.1 million b/d higher than the average production during the fourth quarter of 2014, despite a more than 60% decline in the total U.S. oil-directed rig count since October 2014.

However, monthly crude oil production started to decrease in the second quarter of 2015. Lower 48 onshore output began declining in April 2015, and has fallen from 7.6 million b/d in March to an estimated 7.1 million b/d in November. Total U.S. crude oil production began declining in May 2015, and has fallen from 9.6 million b/d in April to an estimated 9.2 million b/d in November.

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

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EIA expects U.S. crude oil production declines to continue through September 2016, when total production is forecast to average 8.5 million b/d. This level of production would be 1.1 million b/d less than the 2015 peak reached in April. Forecast production begins increasing in late 2016, returning to an average of 8.7 million b/d in the fourth quarter.

Expected crude oil production declines through September 2016 are largely attributable to unattractive economic returns in some areas of both emerging and mature onshore oil production regions, as well as seasonal factors such as anticipated hurricane-related production disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Reductions in 2015 cash flows and capital expenditures have prompted companies to defer or redirect investment away from marginal exploration and research drilling to focus on core areas of major tight oil plays.

EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil and other liquids production to increase by 1.1 million b/d in 2015, led by production increases in Iraq. Forecast OPEC crude oil and other liquids production increases by 0.6 million b/d in 2016, with Iran expected to increase production once international sanctions targeting its oil sector are suspended. At its December 4 meeting, OPEC members announced they "should continue to closely monitor developments in the coming months." This indicates OPEC producers, led by Saudi Arabia, are continuing the policy of defending market share in a low oil price environment.

EIA expects global consumption of petroleum and other liquids to grow by 1.4 million b/d in both 2015 and 2016. Projected real gross domestic product (GDP) for the world weighted by oil consumption, which increased by 2.7% in 2014, is expected to rise by 2.3% in 2015 and by 2.6% in 2016. Despite continuing demand growth and slowing supply growth, global petroleum and other liquids production continues to outpace consumption, leading to inventory expansion throughout the forecast period (Figure 2).

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

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Global oil inventory builds in the third quarter of 2015 averaged 1.8 million b/d, down from 2.0 million b/d in the second quarter, which had the highest level of inventory builds since the fourth quarter of 2008. The pace of inventory builds is expected to slow in the fourth quarter to roughly 1.4 million b/d. In 2016, inventory builds are expected to slow further to an average of 0.6 million b/d.

The current average price forecast for Brent crude oil in 2016 is associated with a further reduction in the outlook for supply growth that in turn reduces the surplus of supply over consumption. EIA estimates average North Sea Brent crude oil prices of $53/barrel (b) in 2015 and $56/b in 2016. The 2015 price forecast is $1/b lower than in last month's forecast and the 2016 estimate is unchanged.

Forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices average $4/b lower than the Brent price in 2015 and $5/b lower in 2016. Current values of futures and options contracts continue to suggest high uncertainty in the price outlook (Market Prices and Uncertainty Report).

Based on contracts traded during the five-day period ending December 3, the lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval for the market's expectation of monthly average WTI prices are estimated at $30/b and $63/b for March 2016, widening to $26/b and $90/b for December 2016 (Figure 3). Key market uncertainties include the pace and volume at which Iranian oil reenters the market, the strength of oil consumption growth, and the responsiveness of non-OPEC production to low oil prices.

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16

NewBase Special Coverage

News Agencies News Release 10 Dec.. 2015

Dow Chemical and DuPont in talks for $120bn merger Reuters + NewBase

Dow Chemical and DuPont are in talks to merge, creating a chemicals giant with a market value of more than $120bn that could then break up into different businesses.

A deal, which would face regulatory approval in several countries, would allow the two US companies to rejig their assets based on their diverging fortunes. Their plastics and specialty chemical businesses have benefited from lower energy costs, while their agrochemicals divisions

have struggled to cope with weak demand for crop protection products.

Following what would be structured as a merger of equals, the combined company could split into material sciences, specialty products and agrochemicals, the people said, cautioning that the plans have not been finalized.

Dow’s chief executive Andrew Liveris and DuPont chief executive Edward Breen would have the two top jobs in

the combined company, one of the people said. An agreement could be reached in the coming days, that person added.

Dow and DuPont declined to comment.

The Wall Street Journal first reported on the merger talks earlier on Tuesday. The possible merger may see cost synergies to the tune of $3bn, CNBC reported citing people familiar with the matter.

As of Tuesday’s trading close, Dow had a market valuation of $58.97bn, while DuPont was valued at $58.37bn. DuPont, under Breen, who took over as CEO last month, had already been in talks with rivals, including Dow, about exploring options about its agriculture business.

Dow had also been reviewing all options for its farm chemicals and seeds unit, which has reported falling sales for nearly a year.

In August, the world’s largest seed company, Monsanto , abandoned a $45bn bid for rival Syngenta as declining grain prices and farm income led to the major players in the farm chemicals and seeds business becoming the subject of consolidation talks.

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However, even before the merger is announced, speculation is rife that the potential combination, which could overtake Germany’s BASF in revenue, may come under intense scrutiny by antitrust regulators.

“A deal like this will definitely be subject to close antitrust scrutiny by Chinese regulators – not just MOFCOM but many other government actors will be involved in the process. That doesn’t mean the deal will necessarily be prohibited,” said Angela Zhang, an antitrust expert at King’s College in London.

Zhang warns that the merger review process will be protracted. However, if the companies “can offer remedies that satisfy the Chinese regulators”, they could obtain clearance subject to conditions, Zhang said.

Breen took over after his predecessor and company veteran Ellen Kullman resigned abruptly in October. Best known as a turnaround expert, Breen was the CEO of Tyco between 2002 and 2012 and split Tyco into six companies, a sprawling conglomerate beset by scandal and strategic flipflops.

DuPont, which gets about 60% of its sales from outside North America, has seen a strong dollar chip away 53 cents per share from its earnings this year. The company has been facing sliding sales for nearly two years.

Kullman had blamed much of the stock price drop on global markets including a rising dollar but some investors had already grown restless with her leadership, complaining that she was not fully executing on the changes she initiated.

In the intervening period in May, when Kullman was fending off a proxy battle from activist investor Nelson Peltz to get representation on the board, the company’s stock price fell over 25%, weakening her support among investors.

In analyst views, the appointment of Breen has been welcomed by Peltz, who has been pushing for DuPont to separate its volatile materials businesses from more stable businesses and save $2bn to $4bn in annual costs.

A 213-year-old company, DuPont makes products and chemicals that go into industries such as petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, food and construction.

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Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great

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