new base 577 special 07 april 2015

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Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase 07 April 2015 - Issue No. 577 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: GREE introduces world’s first solar VRF air-conditioners In line with UAE’s commitment to achieving sustainable development and enhancing the quality of life, GREE air conditioners distributed by NIA Limited have launched the world’s first solar VRF air-conditioners in the country. This revolutionary product is aimed at energy generation & conservation and positions Gree as a market leader in the space of solar air-conditioners. The solar VRF system is a hybrid solar- electric air conditioner which can work on zero power from DEWA. The traditional air conditioner can consume nearly three times more energy as compared to the solar VRF air conditioner causing the consumer to pay a higher electricity bill. Speaking about the launch of the solar VRF air-conditioners by Gree, Managing Director of NIA Limited, UAE, Mr. Zakir Ahmed said, “The advent of ‘solar VRF’ air-conditioners with zero electric charge by Gree would be music to people at the forefront of sustainable development. There are three key aspects to this product, Zero wastage, Zero Electric Charge and Zero worry. Considering that renewable energy options are at a premium, the Solar VRF system ensures that energy is smartly used and there is absolutely no wastage of energy. We are happy that the product supports the “Shams Dubai” smart initiative by DEWA which encourages the regulation of solar energy in buildings. The system incorporates the most advanced power management technologies in conversion from DC-to-AC & AC-to-DC with MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking), PAWM (Pulse Amplitude- Width Modulation) and Ternary communication technologies. This is to optimize the power generated from the solar panels and minimize consumption from the grid.

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Page 1: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1

NewBase 07 April 2015 - Issue No. 577 Khaled Al Awadi

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE

UAE: GREE introduces world’s first solar VRF air-conditioners

In line with UAE’s commitment to achieving sustainable development and enhancing the quality of life, GREE air conditioners distributed by NIA Limited have launched the world’s first solar VRF

air-conditioners in the country. This revolutionary product is aimed at energy generation & conservation and positions Gree as a market leader in the space of solar air-conditioners.

The solar VRF system is a hybrid solar-electric air conditioner which can work on zero power from DEWA. The traditional air conditioner can consume nearly three times more energy as compared to the solar VRF air conditioner causing the consumer to pay a higher electricity bill.

Speaking about the launch of the solar VRF air-conditioners by Gree, Managing

Director of NIA Limited, UAE, Mr. Zakir Ahmed said, “The advent of ‘solar VRF’ air-conditioners with zero electric charge by Gree would be music to people at the forefront of sustainable development. There are three key aspects to this product, Zero wastage, Zero Electric Charge and Zero worry.

Considering that renewable energy options are at a premium, the Solar VRF system ensures that energy is smartly used and there is absolutely no wastage of energy. We are happy that the product supports the “Shams Dubai” smart initiative by DEWA which encourages the regulation of solar energy in buildings.

The system incorporates the most advanced power management technologies in conversion from DC-to-AC & AC-to-DC with MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking), PAWM (Pulse Amplitude-Width Modulation) and Ternary communication technologies. This is to optimize the power generated from the solar panels and minimize consumption from the grid.

Page 2: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2

UAE well placed to capitalise on lower GCC oil price The National + NewBase

There’s no doubt that in the GCC, the fall in the price of oil is affecting the market. While it has to have an impact on spending, we need to remember, though, that the UAE government has

already set and approved its budget with a 6.5 per cent (Dh3.1 billion) increase over last year. The continuing programme of major infrastructure projects has been allocated spending of Dh1.63bn.

The government remains in a resilient position and could tolerate an even lower price. Add that to the suggestion that oil will come bouncing back strongly in the next couple of years, and, for the country as a whole, there seems to be little concern.

That’s a sentiment not necessarily reflected among businesses right now. There’s a feeling that they need to keep an eye on the economic position before acting. However, lower prices also mean lower

costs for many, and that could be the springboard to expansion or greater efficiency.

Oil is only one part of the picture. I’ve seen many companies here benefit from the economic challenges elsewhere in the world. For example, I met one manufacturer who was able to buy the equipment the company needed at 30 per cent off the quoted price. Countries that are struggling

are keen to give good deals to robust buyers in the UAE.

This could, then, be the right time to invest in business infrastructure. But it’s also the right time to stand back and take a look at the balance sheet position and expenses. Lower costs take the pressure off a little and give businesses the chance to find more efficiencies for the future. In that way, they can be ready for any upturn in the cost of oil.

The UAE also has some significant advantages for corporate businesses, and this is why so many companies come here to establish regional offices. They come for the business-friendly environment, favourable taxation, and most of all for the logistics infrastructure.

We have seen manufacturers working on one side of the United States send their

Page 3: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3

consignments via the UAE to reach the other side of the US. It’s a cheaper option for some, and it’s enhanced by the massive development of the airports and ports. According to industry data, Dubai’s airport was busier than Heathrow last year – with nearly 69 million passengers in the year to September 2014.

While the oil and gas industry comes under pressure, one of the strengths of the UAE is that the economy is increasingly diversifying, with trade and services, aviation, banking and finance, manufacturing and real estate becoming growth sectors. Abu Dhabi has growing significance as a regional business centre and the Abu Dhabi sovereign fund (Adia) has one of the world’s largest portfolios. Another source of strength is the political stability.

Tourism continues to be an important growth area, despite fewer visitors from Russia. The number of Indian tourists to Abu Dhabi reportedly grew by 32 per cent last year compared to 2013, and the number of Chinese visitors to Dubai increased by 25 per cent.

Industry research shows that tourism receipts for the UAE as a whole increased 12.4 per cent between 2004 and 2013 and the share of the total GCC receipts increased from 30.2 per cent to 41.4 per cent over the same period. According to the World Travel & Tourism Council, the UAE will remain a regional tourism leader, with the sector valued at US$31.8bn by the end of 2018.

Tourists from China and India are finding it more affordable to come to the UAE and, providing companies can adapt to new needs, there are real opportunities in this sector. There’s a watch-and-see attitude in the UAE, but also a feeling that the situation is well under control and able to withstand oil price fluctuations. The priority now is for businesses to maximise the opportunities created by cheaper costs and a robust economy.

Page 4: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4

Egypt to Invest About $47bn in Energy Sector KUNA + NewBase

Egypt will invest close to $47 billion in the domestic energy sector in next five years, according to country’s Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Sherif Ismail. Ismail made the remark while inaugurating phase (9-A) of deep water fields of West Delta in the Mediterranean Sea, Kuwait News Agency (KUNA) reported Monday citing a press statement by the cabinet.

The $6.1 billion project will produce 400 million cubic feet of natural gas and 2,500 barrels of condensates per day, the Minister said. He stated that the Ministry of Petroleum has signed 56 oil and gas exploration agreements between November 2013 and March 2015 worth $12.1 billion, KUNA reported.

Egypt owes foreign energy firms US$3.285 billion having paid them US$9.369 billion in arrears in the nine months to March 31, an oil ministry spokesman told Reuters. The ministry said last month that it aimed to fully repay its debt to energy firms by mid-2016, a year later than previously indicated. Hammered by instability since a popular uprising which ousted leader Hosni Mubarak in 2011, Egypt has delayed payments to oil and gas firms. Arrears began to accumulate before the revolt, but worsening state finances saw the debts mount to billions of dollars while the government diverted gas earmarked for export to meet domestic demand.

Gas production has declined in Egypt while consumption has risen, but firms have been reluctant to increase investment in exploration and production, particularly in costly offshore areas, until the government pays them.

Page 5: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5

Iran Oil Return May Be Slow Amid Jostling for Foreign Investors Bloomberg + NewBase

Iran’s full return to world oil markets will be hindered by strong competition for foreign investment dollars from rival producers including Iraq, Mexico and Brazil, among others.

In a world of surplus supply, prices hovering around $50 a barrel and deep cuts to capital expenditures by oil companies, Iran will be challenged to find investors should it finalize a nuclear agreement that leads to a lifting of sanctions.

Other jurisdictions have already seen super-major oil companies walk away from reserves because returns were deemed inadequate. Exxon Mobil Corp. has rejected renewing a concession in Abu Dhabi because that country didn’t offer enough returns, and BP Plc has told Mexico it needs better terms to attract foreign investments as it reopens fields.

Even if all the obstacles are resolved, “negotiations could take a year” once sanctions are lifted, Nader Sultan, who ran state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp. for over a decade, said in an interview.

Tehran took the first step to reopening its fields last week when it reached a framework agreement with the U.S. and other leading powers to resolve a decade-old nuclear spat. The deal, if finalized by June 30, could prompt the U.S. and Europe to lift sanctions that have stopped foreign oil companies from investing in Iran.

Once that occurs, Iran will be eager to show the world it is open for business, according to Sultan. “They need the oil revenues,” he said.

Price Recovery

The potential addition of millions of barrels of Iranian crude to the market promises to further delay a recovery in oil prices, hurting profitability of some of the world’s biggest producers, including Exxon and Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

Page 6: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6

Brent crude, an international benchmark, rose 6 percent to $57.96 after Saudi Arabia said it would increase the price for oil it sends to Asia.

Iran’s return as a dominant power in the international marketplace is “not going to be immediate,” said Gianna Bern, an energy consultant who teaches international finance at the University of Notre Dame in Indiana. “European companies such as BP that have a long storied history in Iran are likely to take the first crack at coming back into the country, although some may be wary initially.”

Tehran Output

The International Energy Agency estimates Tehran produces 2.8 million barrels a day. Unconstrained by sanctions, Iran should increase that to 3.6 million barrels a day, perhaps in as few as six to 12 months.

It would need involvement by foreign investors and producers to raise its capacity beyond 3.6 million. A decade ago, it was able to pump 4.5 million barrels a day and output peaked at about 6 million a day in 1974.

The first obstacle for the country is competition. Iraq, for instance, is already swallowing billions of dollars from companies including BP, Eni SpA and OAO Lukoil. Abu Dhabi, the richest of the United Arab Emirates, has signed Total SA to a 40-year production concession, and is negotiating with BP and Shell to join. Others countries seeking foreign investment are Mexico, Brazil, Uganda and Angola.

The second challenge is the relatively low price of crude, which could come under renewed downward pressure precisely because of the return of Iranian production. Exxon’s rejection of the Abu Dhabi concession and BP’s comments about Mexico’s terms puts pressure on Iran to offer better returns to potential partners, using its initial dealings to show the country is open for business.

Iraq Model

The biggest oil companies have learned a great deal as Iran’s neighbor, Iraq, has taken the first steps in reopening its oil fields.

After more than a decade of war, the country has increased oil production to the highest level in almost 35 years without as much investment from Western companies as originally anticipated, said William Arnold, a former senior counsel over the Middle East and North Africa for Shell.

Exxon is among the companies that signed deals early on in Iraq, even with unfavorable economic terms, to have a seat at the table for any future bounty, he said. The contracts weren’t great in some cases, delivering $2 per barrel of oil to the companies extracting the crude, Arnold said.

Page 7: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7

‘Remarkable Story’

“Iraq’s oil production has been a remarkable story, even with ongoing conflict there, and Libya also continues to produce without much dropoff yet from U.S. shale plays,” said Arnold, who teaches at Rice University in Houston. “The drivers all seem to be pushing toward steady or low prices, and if we add 500,000 barrels to that from Iran, it will not be a pretty picture for producers.”

The consensus is that Iran could get 500,000 barrels a day into the market relatively quickly, according to Arnold.

If so, he said, “as sensitive as the market is, without much change in demand, that could have an outsized impact on prices. It reminds us that oil is a commodity, and that relatively small changes in supply or demand can have an exaggerated impact on the world price.”

Page 8: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8

India: Niko Resources Gets Reserves Report for MJ Gas Discovery

Niko Resources has announced independent resources evaluation report for the MJ gas and condensate discovery in the D6 Block in India.

The report has been prepared by Deloitte LLP, an independent petroleum engineering firm. Deloitte has evaluated the contingent resources for the MJ discovery in the D6 Block in India based on available information, including the drilling, testing and coring results of the MJ 1 discovery well and the MJ-A1, MJ-A2, and MJA3 appraisal wells.

Deloitte's best case estimate of gross unrisked contingent resources of 1.4 trillion cubic feet of equivalent (Tcfe) relates to the Central (North), Northern and Central (South) fault blocks that were drilled by the MJ-1, MJ-A1, and MJ-A3 wells, based on an estimated areal extent of approximately 24 square kilometers, approximately twice the areal extent of the analogous MA field that is currently producing.

"The discovery and successful appraisal of MJ adds a new and exciting chapter to the D6 Block. Going forward, the contractor group in the block will be working on plans to develop MJ, which may lead to potentially significant additions to reserves and production levels in the coming years," said William T. Hornaday, Chief Operating Officer, Niko Resources.

Page 9: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9

Essar Oil becomes India’s largest CBM gas producer IANS + NewBase Indian oil and gas producer Essar Oil on Monday said it has become India’s largest coal bed methane (CBM) gas producer as its gas unit in Raniganj in West Bengal crossed production of 5 lakh standard cubic metres per day (scmd) recently.

“We have been able to register a multi-fold increase in CBM production to 5.5 lakh scmd and expect to ramp up delivery to 12 lakh scmd over the next few months by bringing wells on production stream which are drilled and are presently under completion and dewatering phase,” the company’s CEO for exploration and production Manish Maheshwari said in a statement.

The company said that with an investment outlay of Rs 4,000 crore for the project in Burdwan district in the state, it has placed nearly 100 wells on gas production and an additional 155 wells have been drilled and are at various stages to further gas production.

It has also built compression stations and in-field pipelines of 120 km and another 60 km to ferry gas to end-users. Also, investments have been made for gas conditioning facilities. “The company anticipates completing the development programme ahead of the May 2016 deadline as per the contract with the central government.

Gas from this project shall be the feedstock to the priority fertiliser sector with the anchor customer being Matix Fertiliser & Chemicals Ltd located in West Bengal,” the company said. It also has two gas blocks in Assam in the prolific Assam-Arakan frontier basin.

Page 10: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10

Russia: Gazprom Neft increases collaboration with Vietnam Source: Gazprom Neft = NewBase

Gazprom Neft and Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (Petrovietnam) have signed a series of agreements to extend their collaboration activity. The documents were

signed in Hanoi (Vietnam), in the presence of the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev and the Prime Minister of Vietnam, Nguyen Tan Dung.

Alexander Dyukov, Chairman of the

Management Board of Gazprom Neft, and Nguyen Xuan Son, Chairman of the Board

of Directors of Petrovietnam, signed a memorandum to extend their

collaboration on joint oil and gas exploration, production and

development projects on the Pechora Sea shelf (at the Dolginskoye field

and the Severo-Zapadnyi (North West) licensed block).

The two parties have agreed to create a dedicated working group of experts from both companies. By the end of October 2015, the parties will form a list of priority oil and gas fields and agree the basic terms of the partnership before further

agreements are signed. The projects will be implemented via joint ventures of Gazprom Neft and Petrovietnam, in which the stakes of each party will

be negotiated.

In addition, Alexander Dyukov and Nguyen Xuan Son have signed a document outlining key provisions of an agreement allowing Gazprom Neft to acquire a share

in the Vietnamese Dung Quat refinery. During the period set out by the agreement, Gazprom Neft will have exclusive rights to negotiate with Petrovietnam

on acquiring its shares in the refinery.

In accordance with the agreement previously concluded between Gazprom Neft and Petrovietnam, Gazprom Neft plans to acquire a 49% stake in the plant which is owned and operated by Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical company.

Plans to modernise the Dung Quat refinery will increase capacity from the existing

6.5m tonnes to 8.5m tonnes per year, and improve the efficiency of its technological processes enabling the plant to switch over to producing Euro-5 standard motor

fuels. Gazprom Neft’s share of investment in the modernisation project will be proportionate to its share in the plant.

Page 11: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11

Oil Price Drop Special Coverage

Big oil firms bracing for worst quarterly results Dow Jone + NewBase

The world’s big oil companies and their investors are bracing for some of the worst quarterly financial results in recent memory as the first three months of the year closed with oil trading at about half of its 2014 peak.

The final quarter of 2014 was bad enough. British giant BP announced its biggest quarterly loss

since the Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. Exxon Mobil Corp’s cash flow fell

to its lowest level since the midst of the

financial crisis in 2009.

The year-end carnage was for a three-month period in which a barrel of oil traded at $77. In the latest quarter, the Brent international oil benchmark averaged $55.13 a barrel. “It’s going to be ugly,” said Jason Gammel, an analyst at Jefferies. “It’s going to be a really bad quarter.”

Most of the world’s biggest oil companies have already slashed spending, with many of them cutting jobs. Underscoring the severity of the oil-price pressure, they have also turned to investors to help them preserve cash. Eni SpA of Italy cut its dividend in March, a dramatic move within a group of companies that holds as almost sacred the ability to maintain steady payments to shareholders. Royal Dutch Shell and French giant Total recently said they would offer investors the option to receive their dividend in shares, a move that could bolster the companies’ cash holdings. In February, Exxon said to cut costs it would reduce first-quarter spending on share buybacks by two-thirds from the preceding quarter to $1bn. Chevron has suspended its buyback program altogether.

Page 12: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12

After a quarter of even lower oil prices, Big Oil is likely to continue to impose measures of austerity and negotiate better deals with contractors. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates that by next year exploration costs will be driven down by about a third compared with 2014.

Companies are also working to cut operating costs, said Andrew Mackenzie, chief executive of BHP Billiton Ltd, the Anglo-Australian mining giant that also has a sizable oil-and-gas arm. “It’s going to be tightening the supply chain and sharing the pain,” Mackenzie said in a recent interview. Some cost cutting may show up when oil companies start reporting results later this month, providing some relief. BP and Shell are among the first big companies to report first-quarter earnings, on April 28 and April 30, respectively. “I think you’ll find that when BP and Shell

report results there will be quite a sharp revenue drop, but costs will have also fallen,” said Paul Mumford, a senior fund manager at Cavendish Asset management, which holds small stakes in both companies. BP, Shell and Exxon referred questions to previous statements about how they are managing the weaker price environment. Chevron also noted previously announced plans to cut costs, reduce spending and pursue assets sales, while adding that it remains confident of its long-term business plans and its ability to manage the downturn. Spending cuts are a Catch-22 for oil companies caught in a relentless race to replace the oil reserves they draw down every year. Reduce exploration spending too much, and companies run the risk of failing to line up new supplies to bolster their oil reserves, a closely watched metric for energy investors. And if they cut development costs too deeply, production suffers, affecting cash flow. The pressure is acute. Chevron chairman and chief executive John Watson told analysts in March that the company’s negative returns for shareholders in 2014 were “unacceptable” and outlined “significant cost-reduction programs under way.” The company is rebidding contracts and negotiating reductions with suppliers, even as it works toward production growth of 20% by 2017. To meet their substantial costs amid the price drop and fall in cash flow, companies have been piling on debt in recent months. According to Morgan Stanley, large integrated oil companies led by Exxon, Total, Chevron and BP raised $31bn in debt in the first two months of the year, beating the previous quarterly record of $28bn amassed at the height of the financial crisis in early 2009. Loading up on debt isn’t necessarily a problem in the short term. Big integrated oil companies generate billions of dollars in cash each year and have substantial refining and trading arms that provide some cover in a low-price environment.

Page 13: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13

Record gasoline output to curb biggest US oil glut in 80 years Bloomberg + NewBase

Refiners are poised to make gasoline at a record pace this year, keeping the biggest US crude glut in more than 80 years from overflowing storage. They’re enjoying the best margins in two years as they finish seasonal maintenance of their plants before the summer driving season. They’ll increase output to meet consumer demand and they’ve added more than 100,000 barrels a day of capacity since last summer, when they processed the most oil on record.

Booming crude production expanded inventories this year by 86mn barrels to 471mn, the highest level since 1930. Analysts from Bank of America Corp to Goldman Sachs Group Inc have said storage space may run out. What looks like an oversupply to banks is turning into an all-you-can-eat buffet for those making gasoline and diesel fuel. “A lot of the excess crude we’ve been sitting on is going to get chewed up quickly,” Sam Davis, an analyst for energy consulting company Wood Mackenzie Ltd, said in Houston April 2. “We’re going to move from a stock build to a stock draw.” Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have said storage builds are increasing the risk of breaching storage capacity, sending prices tumbling. West Texas Intermediate oil, the US benchmark, already has lost more than half its value since June as growing US shale production led to a global oversupply. WTI for May delivery added $1.17 to $50.31 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 7:56am local time. Inventories surged as US output rose 71% over the past five years as drillers used techniques like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing to tap previously inaccessible oil in shale rock layers. In Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for WTI futures, supplies have more than tripled since early October to a record 58.9mn barrels. Last July, refiners processed 16.5mn barrels of crude a day, the highest level in monthly Energy Department data going back to 1961. Refining margins in March have averaged $28.09 a barrel, the most since March 2013. Refiners typically schedule maintenance shutdowns in the spring and fall, reducing oil demand during that time. US refiners increased crude runs by an average 1.1mn barrels a day in April through July over the past five years. During that period, US crude inventories have fallen an average of 24.7mn barrels from the end of May through September. Companies like Enterprise Products Partners LP and TransCanada Corp have increased pipeline capacity from Cushing to the Gulf Coast to more than 1.5mn barrels a day from nothing at the beginning of 2012.

Page 14: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14

Shippers may use more of that space in April after differentials between crudes on the Gulf Coast and Cushing widened to the highest level since January 2014. Light Louisiana Sweet averaged a $6.60 premium to WTI in March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Uncommitted shippers would have to pay between $5.11 and $6.58 a barrel to ship on pipelines from Cushing to St James, Louisiana, where LLS is priced, according to regulatory filings.

Higher refinery runs and pipeline flows might not be enough to reduce inventories in Cushing, said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates LLC in Houston. WTI is in a contango market structure, with futures contracts for April 2016 selling for $10.84 a barrel more than April 2015 when that contract expired on March 20. That encourages traders to keep crude in Cushing to profit on the trade, Lipow said. “There’s an incentive to fill up Cushing and hold it there,” he said. Kinder Morgan Inc planned to run its 50,000-barrel-a-day Houston splitter at full rates by the end of March, company spokeswoman Melissa Ruiz said last month. Another unit of the same size is scheduled to come online later this summer. A splitter processes an ultra-light form of crude known as condensate that is plentiful in shale regions. Delek US Holdings Inc and Marathon Petroleum Corp are expanding the capacity of refineries to run domestic crude. MDU Resources Inc and Calumet Specialty Products Partners LP plan to start up a new 20,000-barrel-a-day refinery in North Dakota in the second quarter. “There are a few incremental expansions that are going to help out and everyone else should be running full out, margins are saying to do that,” said John Auers, executive vice president at Dallas-based energy consultant Turner Mason & Co “That will help drain Cushing.”

Page 15: New base 577 special  07 april  2015

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,

or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this

publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15

Special Report Reliance on oil revenues constitutes a long term risk for

the Gulf countries Asiya – Press release

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are facing considerable pressure from the ongoing slump in oil prices, as they are heavily dependent on oil and gas revenues. Oil prices have been declining since the fourth quarter of 2014, falling around 48% year-on-year and raising concerns over how long GCC countries will be able to maintain their fiscal surplus positions.

In the beginning of this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its 2015 projection on GCC's consolidated fiscal surplus from $275 billion to around $100 billion, and warned that some countries will face fiscal deficits if public spending continued at current levels. Nevertheless, most GCC countries are still delivering high rates of economic growth, and managed to avoid a downturn so far due to the resilience of their governments' spending, which is supported by large fiscal reserves. Yet, their reliance on oil exports remains a downside risk on the long run, according to the IMF. The international organization stressed the importance of increasing economic diversification and strengthening the non-oil sectors in the GCC to sustain growth and maintain fiscal surplus in the distant future. Gulf states share similar economic features, and lower oil prices have a major impact on the two GDP components that contribute the most to their economies, government spending and net

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exports. However, the evolution of private consumption and investment, which are less oil-driven, differs from one country to the next. As a result, GCC countries can be considered to be in different business cycle stages, in spite of their shared characteristics. The business cycle reflects the fluctuations of a country's real GDP growth in relation to its potential growth, and is defined in terms of expansion and contraction. When real GDP growth is trending upwards, the economy is considered to be in an expansion stage, while a downward trending of real GDP growth indicates a contraction stage. The expansion phase usually involves rising employment, industrial output, sales and personal income. We look at these factors in particular, isolating the direct impact of falling oil prices on GDP. There is a second parameter to take into account when analyzing business cycles. Countries below potential growth are under using their resources. They usually present unemployment, unused manufacturing capacity and falling inflation. Countries above potential growth suffer from overheating, inflation and overused factories. There are four out of the six GCC countries considered to be in the contraction stage as of the fourth quarter of 2014. More specifically, Oman and Qatar are in early contraction, defined as the beginning of an economic slowdown but still above their long-term growth rate. The deceleration is mainly due to weaker exports, and softening private consumption and investment.

Leading indicators such as credit and liquidity growth suggest that the slowdown could continue for a prolonged time. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have been decelerating as well, but their countries

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are considered to be in a later stage of contraction. They already show some signs of recovery in different sectors, such as the housing sector in Kuwait, and the banking sector in Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, leading indicators started to pick up, suggesting more spending and positive sentiment going forward. Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) ended the year in an expansionary cycle. . The slump in oil prices did not affect their export growth as much as in other GCC countries, due to the diversification of exported goods. The good momentum of their labour markets allowed the countries to experience strong private consumption, as a result of their healthy labor markets. Additionally, both countries present a positive outlook, in particular UAE, after it secured the organization of Expo 2020 and the stock market was upgraded by MSCI from the frontier markets index to emerging markets index. Overall, oil continues to be the one factor driving economic performance in the GCC. Economic diversification is a key element for the Gulf countries to ensure future healthy growth. It is necessary for GCC governments to diversify their sources of income away from fossil revenue. Regional governments should continue to improve their legal and tax frameworks while ensuring a stable political framework. GCC authorities must set the conditions to engage the private sector, the only one that can address the upcoming challenge of demographic pressure and youth unemployment.

About Asiya Investment:

Asiya Investments is a subsidiary of KCIC which was founded by an Emiree Decree with a capital of KD 80 million and a mandate to invest in domestic demand-driven sectors in Asia, namely energy, real estate, healthcare, infrastructure, and financial services. KCIC is the Parent Company of a Group that includes Asiya Investments Dubai Limited and Asiya Investments Hong Kong Limited. Asiya Investments Dubai Limited serves as the investment advisory hub for KCIC. Asiya Investments Hong Kong Limited is fully equipped with a skillful and experienced investment team which has further demonstrated KCIC's commitment to the Asian markets. The publicly-listed Group employs a team of Asia specialists and currently manages assets in excess of a billion. Key shareholders of KCIC include the Kuwait Investment Authority

(Kuwait's Sovereign Wealth Fund), National Investments Company (one of the leading investment banks in the Middle East), and Alghanim Industries (one of the largest conglomerates in the Middle East).

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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010

Mobile: +97150-4822502 [email protected] [email protected]

Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 25 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great

experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.

NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE

NewBase 07 April 2015 K. Al Awadi

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