nevada mineral exploration coalition 2013 annual general ... · nevada mineral exploration...
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Nevada Mineral Exploration Coalition2013 Annual General Meeting
Reno, USA
October 15, 2013
Presented by John Kaiser
What – if Anything – Will Cause the
Current Market to Improve and When?
www.KaiserResearch.com
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Overview
• How bad is the resource sector equity market?
• Why is 2013 different from 1980 and why does $1,300
gold not feel good?
• Is there another way to view gold that does not entail
apocalyptic outcomes and which promises higher
real gold prices? (the Prosperity-Anxiety Narrative)
• What can trigger a sustainable real price uptrend that
has Wall Street on board?
• What makes Nevada special and why will it become
the focus for a modern day gold rush?
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$255 billion
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Nevada contributed $2.3 billion via Long Canyon
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During their last fiscal year the TSXV resource juniors burned $250 million per month in overhead. Financing is now raising less than $200 million per month.
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40 juniors of which 14 have less than $200,000 WC & owe $21 million, 24 have more than $200,000 WC totaling $66 million, & 2 have $91 million (Midway & Pilot)
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If it looks like a bubble, and starts to quack like a bubble, how it can it not be a bubble?
Wall Street target: $900-$1,000
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$2,000+ Dreamland
New UG Discovery Hurdle
New OP Discovery Hurdle
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Prosperity-Anxiety narrative as an alternative to conventional “apocalyptic” gold bug narrative.
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China’s offshore oil ambitions can be solved by Japanese style imperialism. Although the
US Defense has a Pivot to Asia underway, how sympathetic are American taxpayers going
to be if China acts to secure the shipping channels that are its lifeblood?
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What will be the trigger that sends gold higher in real price terms on a sustainable basis that gets Wall Street onside?
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In Q2 2009 China reported a 76% increase in official gold holdings to 34 million oz. Since then it has not updated, but China has produced 45 million oz, all likely bought by the central bank. An update today would put China at 79 million oz. Production in 2012 was 12 million ounces. At this rate it would take 15 years to catch up the US gold holdings. A market moving shocker would be news that a large part of the physical gold imported by China was also bought by the central bank rather than Mrs Wang.
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Location of
Getchell
Gold “Trend”
Total: 56,000,000 oz gold
1993-2011 Production: 10,663,020 ounces gold
2011 Global Resource: 6,219,600 ounces gold
Total: 16,882,620 ounces gold
1938-2011 Production: 5,195,175 ounces gold
2011 Global Resource: 29,774,175 ounces gold
Total: 34,969,350 ounces gold
Battle Mtn – Eureka
Gold “Trend”
Source: NGE presentation
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Au in Ground Water
Additional drill targets are suggested
by other areas reporting high Au in
ground water that were not associated
with known mineralization at the time.
Au ranges from 1 – 140ppt
where associated with known
mineralization
Contamination
from Tailings
1995 US Bureau of Mines hydrogeochemistry case study by David Grimes
Source: NGE presentation
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Relay Zone where
displacement is
transferred from one
fault to the other.
Aftershocks and gold-
depositing fluid flow
were focused along
these ‘transfer faults’.
Midway
fault
system
projected
beneath
coverPrimary Fault
(South)
Primary Fault
(North)
Au in Ground Water
Midway fault
system
based on
range-front
mapping
Area of
potential
new
discoveries
yet to be
reported by
Barrick and
Newmont
Source: NGE presentation
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Source: John Muntean et al
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Southeast Cortez “Trend” along which Barrick has found Red Hill & Goldrush, but beyond which McEwen et al have spent more than $60 million with disappointing results.
Southwest Grass Valley “Trend” along which “ignorant juniors” have staked claims and spent little. In 2012 staked 70:30 by McEwen/NGE based on 15 km gold-in-groundwater anomaly. A game changer for Nevada?
Pediment Deposit
Cortez Hills Deposit – 1.4 million oz produced 2011 Looking South September 2006
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Map showing
Regional Gravity
Geophysics (areas
of shallow bedrock
orange/brown,
blue shows areas
of deep bedrock)
and the Rock
Types exposed in
the Mountain
Ranges.
Grass Valley
Designated
Property
McEwen Mining
Gold Bar / Tonkin
Springs
Area of anomalous Au, As, Sb &
Tl in upwelling groundwater to
be in-filled with additional
ground water samples
Major Fault Zone inferred
from detailed gravity and
seismic geophysics
Axes of regional folds
in upper plate rocks
A A’
1 mi
2.456
1.6 km
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Ground Water
Chemistry SamplingProgress to Date
0 40 miles / 64km
Ground
Water
Sample
Collected
by NGE
Legacy
Ground
Water
Sample
Compiled
by NGE
Is there another 300 million oz to be found on ground not owned by Newmont & Barrick?
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A return to global prosperity growth will lead to a rebalancing of economic and military power that will be disruptive for many things we take for granted. Rising prosperity gives the new contenders the means to accumulate physical gold, and induces anxiety among the rest that encourages gold ownership. This 10-15 year transition will drive higher real gold prices.
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As other nations start to push back against cost dumping in their backyards, is it perhaps strategically prudent for the biggest economy to reconsider its own backyard in a quest for self-sufficiency before it is no longer the biggest economy?
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