network and vulnerability analysis of internatioanal spice trade · 2018. 6. 26. · ie mt fi lu gr...
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Network and vulnerability analysis of internatioanal spice
trade
Zoltán Lakner;Erzsébet Szabó;Viktória Szűcs;
András Székács
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Paprika: an emblematic product of Hungary
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Paprika and political marketing: the paternalistic „war MP”
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Paprika production in Hungary
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120thousand T
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Global trade network of dried papper, 1998
IDN
IND
SGP
MYS
SouthAsiaNorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
EastAsia
Europe
NLD
BRA
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Dried pepper trade 2003
VNM
IDN
SGP
IND
SouthAsiaEastAsia
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Dried pepper trade, 2014
VNM
IDN
SGP
IND
SouthAsiaEastAsia
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Crushed pepper trade, 2014
INDNLD
DEU
USA
EUROPE
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Who is in the center?
Discovering Sets of Key Players in Social Networks – Daniel Ortiz-Arroyo – Springer 2010
d
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
r
i
p
n
jk
m
q
s
l
o
t u v
w z x
HighestDegree centrality
HighestCloseness centrality
HighestBetweennesscentralityHigherst
Eigenvectorcentrality
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MTLUSIIEFI
CYSKGRROPTDKHRBGLVEELTCZHUPLSEBEATIT
FRGBNLDEES
0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6
Brockerage role of actors in Europeanpaprika powder trade network
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Authority centrality
--LUMTESCYSIIELTLVDKBGROHR
FIGREEHUIT
PTBESESKCZATFRPLNLGBDE
0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6
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MTLUSIIEFI
CYSKGRROPTDKHRBGLVEELTCZHUPLSEBEATIT
FRGBNLDEES
0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6
Eigenvector-centrality
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Betweenness centrality
--IE
CYESHUPTMTLV
GRFI
HRLUFRSKPLSEDESI
ATRONLDKEEIT
BELTCZBGGB
0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30 0,35
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In-degree centrality
CYLUMTLVSILTIEFI
ESDKBGHRGREEROHUIT
SEPTBESKCZATFRPLGBNLDE
0,00 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05
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Out-degree centrality
HRLTBGCYLV
RODKIE
MTFI
LUGRCZSI
EESEPTSKPLGBFRATBENLDEHUIT
ES
0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15
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Identification of the sytem and its boundaries
EU(28), intra-EU trade flows, 1988-2014, based on Eurostat
and FAOSTAT data
Determination of intensity of trade-flows between countries
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Based on stochastic characteristics of trade flows, simulation of potentical consequences
of emergence of contaminated products
Boundary conditions: -just the intra-EU trade;-10% domestic consumption between the steps;-homogenous product;-discrete steps
Simulation by
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Simulation parametersInput: 28×28 trade matrix,
Edges are stochastic variables;Nodes: domestic consumption
Simulated contaminations2×1000×28 series of simulations
Method: Euler
Analysis of results by
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Logistic(37365,0; 4525,0)
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
25 30 35 40 45 50
Thousand T
Valu
es x
10
-̂4
Fitting a function to data: anexample of Spanish-German parpika
trade
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Analysis of 2004-2014 years
• Active trade in last five years;• More than 30 fitted fucntions;• Test statistics:
– Chi-square test;– Kolmogorov-Smirnov test;– Anderson-Darling test.Last word: expert estimations
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otherexpon
lognormalParetonormal
LevyTriangular
WeibulUniformlogistic
Log-logisctiInverse Gaussian
0 5 10 15 20 %
Relative frequency of fitted distribution types
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Pearson5(4,6526; 0,21512) Shift=-0,0080550
0
5
10
15
20
25
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
0,45
0,50
< >5,0%90,0%0,0167 0,1145
Example: density function of simulation results ofContaminated paprika in Bulgaria at 0+3 Source UK
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Proliferation profile of contaminated pepper at 0+2 time step
Source of contamination: Fr
cyhrlatro
estsksi
bgfin
lthugrnl
semtpl
dkaudeirl
luxczpt
espbe
itukfr
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 %
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roseirl
bgbelatau
ltukczfrnlit
mtcysi
skpt
luxdepl
estfin
esphrdkgrhu
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 %
Proliferation profile of contaminated pepper at 0+5 time step
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Proliferation profile of contaminated red pepper Supposed source: FR
aubebgcyczdedkestespfinfrukgrhrhuirl
itltluxlatmtnlplptrosesisk
0 5 10 15 20
6 5 3 1
Step
%
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aubebgcyczdedkestespfinfr
ukgrhrhuirlitlt
luxlatmtnlplptrosesi
sk
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
5 3 2 1
%
Proliferation profile of contaminated red pepper Supposed source: HR
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Average burden of contaminated pepper after 0+6 step (all potential sources)
nlauestbgdebegrlatespseitptfrskhrcyluxmtsiirlfinrodkltukhuplcz
0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 %
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Average burden of contaminated Chilli pepper after 0+6 step (all potential sources)
bgluxauhubeptitfr
esplatnl
deltirlcy
estdkpl
mtsegrskhrsiczukfinro
0 1 2 3 4 5
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Y=0.42 X1+0.18 X2 - 0.29 X3 R=0.72WhereY burden of accumulation of Chilli
papperX1 domestic consumptionX2 inbound centralityX3 outbond centrality
System of factors, influencing burden of Proliferated Chilli papper after 0+6 step
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Y=0.55 X1+0.09X2
R=0.77WhereY burden of accumulation of pepperX1 domestic consumptionX2 normalised Bonacich centrality
System of factors, influencing burden of proliferated pepper after 0+6 step
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• The spice network is a vulnerable network;• An ideal target for politics-driven terrorism
and economic sabotage;• The control should be focussed on hubs;• In case of emergency: the network-based
simulation is able to optimalise the quarantine strategy
Lessons