net zero energy ready: trends for construction & retrofits
TRANSCRIPT
Net Zero Energy ReadyTrends for construction & retrofits
Tom-Pierre Frappé-Sénéclauze@tompierrefs
FEN-BC Conference, 21 February 2017
Leading Canada’s transition to a clean energy futureThe Pembina Institute advocates for strong, effective policies to support Canada’s clean energy transition.
@tompierrefs
Research pembina.org/buildings
ConveningThought Leader Forum: 80+ organizations, 100+ participants: 2015: Can we get new buildings ‘net-zero ready’ by 2030?2016: How do we accelerate deep retrofits?
@tompierrefs
Advocacy
A subset of the 100+ signatories: local governments, organizations, businesses, etc.
Call to Action on Climate and Energy in the Building Sector (2016)
Net zero energy buildings:Market and policy trends
New buildings� Market evolution� Policy commitments and implementation
Existing buildings
� Market evolution
� Targets for the sector
� Policy recommendations
Net-Zero Energy buildings: rapid growth in North America
Figure: NBI
NZE: A home or building that produces as much energy as it consumes on an annual basis.
NZE-ready* • A home designed to be NZE, but where the
renewables have NOT yet been installed.• A building with ultra-low energy use.
* Working definition; no consensus yet
Certifications
Source: J.Draper, Postmedia network
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cum
ulat
ive
Squ
are
Foot
age
(Mill
ions
)
Cumulative Square Footage
Dual Certified - Projected PHIUS - Projected PHI - Projected PHIUS - New PHI - New PHIUS - Cumulative PHI - Cumulative
Passive House in North America
Data: PHI, PHIUS and Passive House Canada
Vancouver:14 projects600 units25% of all sqft
Net Zero Ready CommitmentsB.C.
� Code to require Net Zero Ready by 2032
Feds
� Net Zero Ready code released in 2020 for broad adoption by 2030
How do we get there?
✔ Energy Step Code
❓ Incentive program for high performance buildings
❓ Training and education
❓ Energy use benchmarking and disclosure (by 2019)
What about existing buildings?
Certified Energy Advisor audits
Data: Gov. of B.C.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Post
-aud
its p
er m
onth
% o
f elig
ible
sto
ck re
trof
itted
ecoENERGY v.i
ecoENERGY v.i / LSBC v.i
LSBC v.ii
LSBC v.iii
LSBC v.iii / ecoENERGY v.ii
LSBC v.iv
HERO Bonus v.i & ERS
Average energyreduction: ~ 25%
Reference case
CLP + Fed. Carbon price
-33%BC 2020
target
-30% from 2005, based on federal
target
-80%BC 2050
target0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Ann
ual e
mis
sion
s in
Mt C
O2e
CIMS modeling by Navius
(+ forestry credits)
B.C. Emissions
Proposed building sector targets
40-50% by 2030
80-100% by 2050
Buildings emissions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Build
ings
em
issi
ons
(Mt)
NZEr building code
Shallow retrofits
Low carbon pathway
Base case
Retrofit 3% of buildings each year,with average savings of 25%.
+Electrify one out of two.
Homes MURBs ICICurrent stock 1 million 25,000
(575,000 units)60,000(100 million m2)
3% 2,500 per month 800 per year(17,000 units)
1,800 per year(3 million m2)
3% per year…
How does that compare?
Data: Gov. of B.C.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Post
-aud
its p
er m
onth
% o
f elig
ible
sto
ck re
trof
itted
ecoENERGY v.i
ecoENERGY v.i / LSBC v.i
LSBC v.ii
LSBC v.iii
LSBC v.iii / ecoENERGY v.ii
LSBC v.iv
HERO Bonus v.i & ERS
Average energyreduction: ~ 25%
Five guiding principles
1. Drive electrification and fuel switch
2. Ensure all replacements go to high efficiency
3. Liberate energy information
4. Market co-benefits and connect to values
5. Unlock capital from institutional investors
Call to Action on Climate and Energy in the Building Sector
A subset of the 100+ signatories: local governments, organizations, businesses, etc.
Question to you…
1. Drive electrification and fuel switch
2. Ensure all replacements go to high efficiency
3. Liberate energy information
4. Market co-benefits and connect to values
5. Unlock capital from institutional investors
How can the fenestration industry help ensure that a client coming for window/doors replacements leaves with best-in-classfenestration and a retrofit plan leading to a net-zero ready home?
Regulatory tools1. Labelling at time of renovation and/or sale
2. Annual benchmarking and disclosure
3. High efficiency standards for equipment
4. Retrofit code
Thanks!
Tom-Pierre Frappé-Séné[email protected] tw: @tompierrefs
pembina.orgtwitter.com/pembina facebook.com/pembina.institute
Building stock evolution
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100
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400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Build
ing
Floo
r A
rea
(mill
ion
m2)
Pre-2000 construction
2000-2010 construction
Net-zero energy ready
Current code and high performance
Building stock evolution
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Build
ing
Floo
r A
rea
(mill
ion
m2)
Pre-2000 construction
2000-2010 construction
Net-zero energy ready
1/3
2/3 1/2
1/2TODAY
Building sector emissions: 11%
7 MtCO2
e
Commercial (other than offices), VALUE
Office, 1.0
Institutional, VALUEApartments, 0.7
Ground oriented, 3.5
Data: NRCan CEUD 2014 & SCIEU 2009
2050 targetsEnv. & Climate Change Canada overall: -80% (below 2005)
Stationary sources -87%
Trottier, current technology scenario overall: -65% (below 2015)
residential - 87%
commercial - 76%
Trottier, new technology scenario overall: -65% (below 2015)
residential -89%
commercial -88%
Deep decarbonization pathways overall: -89% (below 2015)
residential -99%
commercial -99%
... B.C. buildings:
-80% to 100% By 2050
i.e. near total decarbonization
Sources: University of Massachusetts & energy efficiency industrial forum
$1M spent
5.3 jobsin energy sector
13-18 jobs in energy efficiency sector