nested models: a synthesis tool tom (zack) powell, uc berkeley u. s. globec pan-regional synthesis...
TRANSCRIPT
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Nested Models: A Synthesis Tool
Tom (Zack) Powell, UC Berkeley
U. S. GLOBEC Pan-Regional Synthesis Meeting
27-30 Nov, Boulder, CO
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“...concentrating on a few systems is preferable.”
“HAS GLOBEC EVOLVED A SUCCESSFUL STRATEGY TO ATTAIN ITS
GOALS?”...“...The effect of greenhouse gas-induced global change is expected to be felt in all oceans, and GLOBEC, to be truly
global, could have devised a program that would simultaneously study all, or at least, many ocean ecosystems
simultaneously.”
- J. Knauss et al., Dec, 1997.
“...Understanding how a given ecosystem will respond to global change generated by greenhouse gas warming is much more difficult and unlikely to be achieved within the lifetime of this
program.”
- J. Knauss et al., Dec, 1997.
“SUMMARY”...
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“...concentrating on a few systems is preferable.”
“HAS GLOBEC EVOLVED A SUCCESSFUL STRATEGY TO ATTAIN ITS
GOALS?”...“...The effect of greenhouse gas-induced global change is
expected to be felt in all oceans, and GLOBEC, to be truly global, could have devised a program that would
simultaneously study all, or at least, many ocean ecosystems simultaneously.”
- J. Knauss et al., Dec, 1997.
“...Understanding how a given ecosystem will respond to
global change generated by greenhouse gas warming is much more difficult and unlikely to be achieved within the
lifetime of this program.”
“SUMMARY”...
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1. Nested Models
2. Present Assessment
3. Future Prospects
4. Proposal
OUTLINE
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Nested Models
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Nested Model Hierarchy in the North Pacific
NPac (40 km) NEP (10 km) CCS&CGOA (3 km) PWS (1 km)
40 km 10 km 3 km 1 km
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Free surface, hydrostatic, primitive equation model
Generalized, terrain-following vertical coordinates
Boundary fitted, orthogonal curvilinear horizontal coordinates on an Arakawa C-grid
Non-homogeneous time-stepping algorithm
High-order advection schemes
Accurate baroclinic pressure gradient (FV/splines)
Continuous monotonic reconstruction of vertical gradients
ROMS: KERNAL ATTRIBUTES
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Model Setup. I.
-Ocean Model: ROMS (community model)
-Domain: Pacific basin; 30S to 65N, 100E to 70W. 476x238 Horizontal points, 30 vertical layers
-Spinup: 10 years with climatological fluxes and daily winds
-Hindcast: 1990-2003, NCEP winds and fluxes. Also 2000-2002 Qscat winds
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Model Setup. II.
-Air-sea interaction boundary layer from COARE (Fairall et. al. 1996)
-Oceanic surface boundary layer (KPP; Large et. al. 1994)
-Bathymetry: ETOPO5, isobaths do not intersect coastline
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Data
(Bond et al.)
Model (NPAC)
SST anomaly 1999-2002
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California Current
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Aug 022002
SSTSeaWiFS Chl
Jul 312002
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Denman and
Abbott 1994
(pigment, CZCS)
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[P,T] decorrelation times (Denman and Abbott 1994)
50 - 100 km
25 - 50 km
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Domain: 35-48 N, 120-134 W
514 x 510 x 30 gridpoints
NCEP daily forcing (wind, heat flux)
Initial, boundary conditions from NEP model
Start: 1 Jan 2000
M-Y mixing
Forward run (no data assimilation)
CCS Implementation(ROMS)
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. _ . _ . Stats
___ Calcs
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Spitz et al. 2003 (JGR 108)
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Surface
Section
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Satellite Model
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Present Assessment
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Domain: 20 - 73N, 115 – 210E
ROMS: 226 x 642 x 42 gridpoints
Subdaily (6 hr) T42 CORE wind and fluxes (Large and Yeager)
Initial/boundary conditions provided by CCSM-POP hindcast model
Forward run for 1958-2004—includes multiple El Nino’s, Regime Shifts, and 2002 cold intrusion
Daily averaged physical snapshots of velocity, temperature, etc.
Especially want to thank Enrique Curchitser (Rutgers) and Kate Hedstrom (UAF) for providing these model fields.
NEP Implementation
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ATM
OCE
LND CPL ICE
CCSM 3.0
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Domain: 20 - 73N, 115 – 210E
ROMS: 226 x 642 x 42 gridpoints
Subdaily (6 hr) T42 CORE wind and fluxes (Large and Yeager)
Initial/boundary conditions provided by CCSM-POP hindcast model
Forward run for 1958-2004—includes multiple El Nino’s, Regime Shifts, and 2002 cold intrusion
Daily averaged physical snapshots of velocity, temperature, etc.
Especially want to thank Enrique Curchitser (Rutgers) and Kate Hedstrom (UAF) for providing these model fields.
NEP Implementation
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How well do the ROMS NEP physics match our perception and data from the real NEP ocean?
1) Compare SSH from the model with altimetry
2) Large scale climatology
3) Seasonality
4) Compare SST
5) Compare Subsurface Temperatures
6) Interannual Variability in Strength of the Alaskan Gyre Circulation and Bifurcation of the North Pacific Current (particle tracking)
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Climatological Seasonal SSH Anomaly from Strub and
James (2002)
MODEL
Both are contoured at 2cm intervals
Positive SSH AnomaliesAlong Coast
AC – IntensifiedCC - Weakened
January SSH Anomaly
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Climatological Seasonal SSH Anomaly from Strub and James (2002)
MODEL
Both are contoured at 2cm intervals
Negative SSH AnomaliesAlong Coast
AC – WeakenedCC - Intensified
July SSH Anomaly
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Subsurface Temperature: Line P Seasonal Climatology
Model has warmer subthermocline temperatures, and weaker cross-shore isotherm slope suggesting model is underestimating Alaska Gyre current velocity.
From
Line P
web site
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May
May
1987 Trajectories
1989 Trajectories
15 April –14 June
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May
May
1987 Trajectories
1989 Trajectories
May 87
May 89
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Summary1) The current NEP model hindcast for 1958-2004 is a significant improvement over earlier
simulations.
2) Climatological SSH and SST match observations well at largest scales.
3) Model shows reasonable seasonal variation in coastal velocities (intensified AK gyre in winter; intensified CC in summer).
4) Modeled subsurface seasonal temperatures (at 200-600m) along Line P are ca. 2°C warmer than observations.
5) Alaska Gyre geostrophic transport through Line P is weak relative to observations.
6) 10 m particle trajectories respond to instantaneous velocities including substantial mesoscale velocity (eddies).
7) However, is the NEP model product sufficient to use as the basis for coupled biophysical modeling of salmon, euphausiids, and LTL dynamics?
8) Temperature is important for bioenergetic models, but juvenile salmon are mostly in the upper 20-30 meters (where the modeled T may be OK).
9) Mixed layer depth and stratification intensity are important for controlling nutrient flux into the euphotic zone. Increased nutrient fluxes due to weak stratification may lead to early and possibly sustained phytoplankton blooms, etc.
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Future Prospects
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“HAS GLOBEC EVOLVED A SUCCESSFUL STRATEGY TO ATTAIN ITS
GOALS?”...
“...lack of a specific program tied to investigate nutrients and food production for the targeted organisms;...”
- J. Knauss et al., Dec, 1997.
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NEMURO.FISH
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Observations- Biological and Physical
NCEP 6 hourly data1948-2002
(includes interannual variability)
COCO – COCO – TokyoTokyo
3-D Nemuro3-D Nemuro
Zooplankton andZooplankton and temperature temperature
time seriestime seriesNemuro Pacific herring model
Validation
Time series output
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PROPOSAL
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*
ROMS IMPLEMENTATIONS
**
US GLOBEC
OTHER
**
*
*
*
*
*
** *
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1. Simultaneously drive all U. S. GLOBEC regional ROMS + ecosystem models with a
single, global climate model.
2. Simultaneously drive ALL GLOBEC International regional ROMS models with a
single, global climate model.
3. Simultaneously drive all GLOBEC regional ROMS + E-2-E ecosystem models with a single,
global climate model.
Ultimately
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END