TechnicalAnalysis 1. Market Summary (as of Nov 28, 2014)

Nepse at close last week (Nov 25, 2014) 863.01

Nepse high last week (Nov 23, 2014) 869.15

Weekly Change 0.51(or 0.06%)

Daily Volume (Avg.) NPR 21.14crores

Total Traded Amount (weekly) NPR 63.42 crores

Immediate Resistance 875.56

Immediate Support 844.42

RSI 37.12

MACD Line - 16.36

Signal Line - 15.55

2. Market Trend

Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Nov 28, 2014)

The stock market remained almost flat this week as Nepse saw a minor increase of 0.51 points (or 0.06%) to close at 863.01 points. This week witnessed only three days of trading due to public holidays declared for the SAARC summit. Since it bounced off the support level of 844.42 during the previous week, Nepse moved in the upward direction. However, it could not get past the resistance level of 875.56 points. Hence, Nepse is currently maintaining within its nearest support and resistance levels. The average daily volume saw a slight decrease this week to NPR 21.14 crores from NPR 22.59 crores the week prior. The 50-day moving average is gradually slipping towards the 200-day moving average suggesting a downward trend in the market.

3. RSI

RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the market is not clearly trending upwards or downwards.The RSI indicator saw almost no change during this short trading week. The RSI, which closed at 35.55, levels the week before ended this week at 37.12 levels – a change of 1.57 points. Hence, Nepse is still maintaining within the neutral zone.

RSI (Dec 01, 2013 –Nov 28, 2014)

4. MACD The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa. The MACD line gradually turned upwards this week and has just touched the Signal line. This indicates a minor increase in near term momentum in the market. If the MACD line crosses above the Signal line, it would indicate a buy signal.

MACD (Dec 01, 2013 – Nov 28, 2014)

5. Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Band is a technical indicator that consists of a moving average (21-day) along with two trading bands above (upper band) and below it (lower band). The bands are an indication of volatility, which are represented by calculating standard deviation. At present, the Nepse line is hovering between the mid-band and the lower band. If Nepse crosses above the mid-band, this would indicate a buy signal. Though the market remained flat this week, the overall volatility remains high as is indicated by wide bands.

Bollinger Bands (Dec 01, 2013 – Nov 28, 2014)

Overview: Nepse remained relatively stable during this short trading week as the market inched up by 0.51 points (or 0.06%) to close at 863.01 points. The declining 50-day moving average suggests a bearish trend in the market. If the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, it would suggest a long bear market. Nepse is currently maintaining within its nearest support and resistance levels of 844.42 and 875.56 points. The average daily market volume saw a minor decrease this week toNPR 21.14crores. Though the RSI indicator increased only slightly to 37.12 levels from 35.55 levels the week before. The MACD indicator shows a gradual increase in near term momentum as the MACD line touched the Signal line. If the MACD line clearly crosses above the Signal line, it would indicate a buy signal. The Bollinger Bands suggest that the overall volatility remains high in the market. Moving forward, it will be important for Nepse to maintain above the current support level of 844.42 points.

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Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – November 25, 2014)

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RSI (Jan 01, 2013 – November 25, 2014)

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Bollinger Bands (Jan 01, 2013 – November 25, 2014)

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