neil douglas cilt talk 9/4/2014 how many people can you ......

How many people can you get on a train and how long does it take to get them on and off?

CILT talk By Neil Douglas April 9th 2014

Neil Douglas CILT Talk 9/4/2014

1

How many people can you get on a train and how long does it take to get them on and off?


2


Japan

3


4

The UK


5

Wellington Auckland

Relevant to single/double deck bus introduction in NZ: Seats/capacity v bus stop dwell time

NZ

6 Neil Douglas CILT Talk 9/4/2014

Neil Douglas CILT Talk 9/4/2014 Back to Sydney

7

8


North West Rail Link circa 2004

9


$400 million wasted on Metro project - INSW

“a number of major projects that have been selected have either been delayed or cancelled – notably the Sydney metro, a $400 million bill for taxpayers for nothing at all. The underlying failures leading to these outcomes have been poor planning and project selection rather than an inability to deliver”. Infrastructure NSW

NWRL morphed into a metro project

10


Slide Courtesy of Sandy Thomas

11


Note – old – new developments But the aim of a new through CBD rail line is still being considered

New Sydney CBD Rail Link

Latest plans to link NS and Bankstown lines with a metro style operation

12



13



14



15



16


NOTE!

That’s some background So what was my ‘secret’ report about?

17


Acknowledge: Client: Gary Davey and Scott De Martino, TfNSW; Ian Kearns TfNSW (statistics on-time running ) Michael Doggett of TfNSW (dwell time survey data). Following experts for information and advice: Paul Stanley & Marc Caplan of Arup (station pedestrian simulation) Malcolm Bradley & Pascal Suisse, Parsons Brinckerhoff (station & train simulation ) Prof Keith Still of Bucks New University UK (crowd modelling) Prof Luis Ferreira Univ. of QLD (views on crowd modelling) Peter Howarth Interfleet & John Rosser Institute of Electrical Engineers UK (Thameslink and CrossRail London) Peter Thornton & Alex Wardrop (static capacity modelling) Andrew Mein (AureAlis simulation) Uli Mohr, Rail Management Consultants Australia (views on integrating dwell time into rail simulation).

18


What is the best analysis tool to answer: What is the feasible peak capacity in passengers per hour on the existing North Shore rail line between Chatswood and Redfern? Is it possible to increase train frequency, and hence to lower the boardings and alightings, the train and platform loadings and hence the dwell times? What would be the Dwell times for a new rail line? What would the dwell time be with single deckers?

The questions my study aimed to help answer

19


Douglas Economics was asked to:

Look at TfNSW’s required outcomes from a computational model. Identify the constraints on passenger carrying capacity Undertake a desktop review of studies that had been undertaken to date Undertake a review of products available within the marketplace against the desired TfNSW outcomes (notably simulation models versus static models)

20


The situation on the North Shore Line in 2011

21


Train Passenger Capacity Seats + Standing

Max/Passengers/Train/Hour

Train Line Capacity Max Trains /Hour

Signalling Clearance Time

Train Dwell Time at Stations

Station/Platform Passenger Capacity

Max Passengers/Hour

Line Capacity Passengers/Hour

Train Passenger Capacity

Max Passengers /Hour

Station Capacity: Platform Width

Vertical Transport Capacity Accessway/Concourse

Capacity Ticket Barriers/Machines

Douglas Economics DwellModels.ppt

Station Access/Egress & Bus Interchange

Capacity

Train/Line Capacity Station Capacity

Factors Determining Rail Capacity

Demographic/ Socio-

econ factors e.g. size, gender

22


Standards

Demand Capacity Modelling

Inter-relationships

E.g. nobody should stand for more than 20 minutes – Sydney Customer Service Obligation 23


Train Service Standards

Station Standards

Space Occupancy &

Flow Circulation

Service Reliability

Passenger Capacity

Evacuation Standards

Capacity & Level of Service Standards

24


Types of Approach: Static and Dynamic Modelling Approaches

25


Capacity Double

Deck

Single

Deck

Comment

Seated

Capacity

900 400 Rounded figures (Waratah has 896 seats)

Nominal

Capacity

1,200 900 Standing in double deck vestibules

(19/vestibule) only and at approximately

2P/M2 for single deck

Peak Capacity 1,400 1,120 Double deck maximum load observed on

Western Line; 3P/M2 for single deck

Max Capacity 1,750 1,350 Standing at 4P/M2. Only observed at

special events

Question 1: How many people can you get on a train?

26


Capacity also a ‘flow’ – more than one train Single v Double Decker Trains

27


Assessment of Train Type & Signalling Control

Passenger Capacity (Pax/hr) Alternative train types (Existing Signalling)

Double-deck 20tph Normal load 24,000 Double-deck 20tph Peak load 28,000 Single-deck 22tph Normal load 19,800 Single-deck 22tph Peak load 25,000

Passenger Capacity (Pax/hr) with enhanced Signalling (ETCS Level 2)

Double-deck 24tph Normal load 28,800 Double-deck 24tph Peak load 33,600 Single-deck 26tph Normal load 23,400 Single-deck 26tph Peak load 29,200

28


The cost of crowding

Comfort & Safety Issues

Train Station

29


30


Train Crowding Comfort Cost Function

31


Station Crowding – A ‘Comfort’ Cost Function

32


Dwell time: Question 2: Long it will take to get people on an off? Modelling Approaches:

33


Passenger Volume -Number boarding and alighting - flow composition -Onboard through travelling passengers -Load distribution through train

Passenger Profile - Mobility Status (old/infirm/wheelchair) - Journey Purpose (commuters, leisure trips, school children) - Regularity (familiarity) - Size of the passengers - Culture/religion

Train Design -Door opening/closing speed -Door Number and Width - Seat Configuration -Double/single deck -Aisle width - Vestibule Size

Platform Design -Stairs/escalators/lifts (number, capacity, location) -Distribution of passengers along platform -Platform Width (level of passenger crowding) -Door/platform step height and gap -Platform Signing, Seating

Dwell Time

Timetable Factors - Service Frequency & Pattern -Timed / Untimed Stop - Planned interchange -Crew change

Factors affecting Train Dwell Time

Neil Douglas 34


Dwell Time

Cruise Speed

Arrival Time

Departure Time

Station A Depart Time

Station B

Spe

ed

Elapsed Time

Passenger Dwell Time

Doors Open & Close

Awaits Departure

Statistical Models of Train Dwell Time

The bit which varies with passenger numbers 35


Algorithm:

Ultimate Client Aim : Predict the dwell times for an individual train for a station Based on board and alight numbers, train design, onboard passenger load and distribution by carriage, platform layout (escalator/staircases) and passenger distribution along platform. Extend algorithm into a forecasting model for a particular line Feed in timetable data and patronage forecasts. Repeat the dwell time calculations for successive train stations for a particular service.

Static Models

36


Train Dwell Time Models (Algorithms):

London Underground Line – Train Service Model Massachusetts Bay Transport Authority Boston Douglas Economics – Sydney Data TMG Nomogram – other factors

37


London Underground Dwell Time Algorithm

Predicted Train Dwell using LUL Formula

38


Boston Dwell Time Model

39


Plat Time Survey Sample Passenger Dwell (secs) Alight + Board Passengers

Station Number Period Date Size Average Min Max Average Min Max

Central 17 AM 9/11/2006 29 23 6 53 32 11 63

Town

Hall 2 PM 8/11/2006 102 33 10 81 47 9 86

Town

Hall 3 AM 16/11/2006 32 33 12 67 40 18 71

Town

Hall 4 PM 10/4/2007 35 20 4 46 32 9 60

Town

Hall 5 AM 10/4/2007 32 26 11 65 35 13 89

Wynyard 3 AM 15/11/2006 16 23 0 60 31 0 78

Total na na na 246 28 0 81 40 0 89

RCTables

RailCorp Dwell Time Surveys

November 2006 & March 2007

40


Passenger Dwell Time v Alighting + Boarding Volume

41


Live & Simulated Passenger Dwell Time RailCorp ‘Live’ Surveys at Town Hall, Central & Wynyard &

Simulated Surveys (2006 and 2007)

42


Stop to

Doors

Opening

Doors

Open to

Last

Boarder

Last

Boarder

to Doors

Close

Doors

Close to

Train

Depart

Total

Dwell

Sample

Size obs

Average 3 36 19 11 70 65

Max 8 78 70 60 104 65

Min 2 14 4 4 42 65

Components of Dwell Time (seconds) Sydney CBD North-Shore/Main West

ddddd BAStdBdAdBAPFD .005.0))((007.04.19.110 7.07.0

43


Predicted Passenger Dwell Times

44


Dwell Time Lookup Tables For Double Deck Trains Douglas Economics

Threshold When does the dwell time take longer than a minute?

45


Wardrop Nomagram

Relationship between Train Configuration, Passenger Turnover, Station Dwell Time, Signalling System and Hourly Passenger Flow based on Standard Sydney Double Deck Suburban Train

Putting it all together into a static model

46


Operational Comparison of Different Suburban Railways and Metro Systems

Source: Alex Wardrop Worley Parsons 47


Train Service Delayed

Service Interval Lengthens

Passenger Buildup on Platform

Train Board Time Increases

Increased Train Load

Train Delay Increases

Impacts on Other Trains

Train Recovery Time

The Snowball Effect

One train affects the next one

48


Train travel times were estimated to increase 50% by Hibino (2010) from passenger crowding As increased station dwell times causes slower train run times.

A Japanese study Passenger crowding on Tokyo Metro

49


Different issues in the AM & PM Peaks – Station performance important

Sydney CBD Station Occupancy

50 Neil Douglas CILT Talk 9/4/2014

Two types of model: Passenger Movement Models (mostly Station pedestrian crowding models) Train Movement Models

Full solution would require both types of model But data transfer between models was (is still?) a problem - for feasible modelling

Dynamic Models => Simulation Models

51


52

Train Movement Models: ‘Off-the shelf’ Transport Simulation Packages Rail Operations simulation modelling Used for train lines/networks to look at reliability OpenTrack, RAILSYS, RailSIM, Simu++ TRAKATTK. Transport simulation packages Paramics, AimSun Have been used for bus and Light Rail - interchange General simulation packages Eg Arena.


Double Deck Single Deck

Station Average Range Average Range

Redfern 50 40-60 40 30-50

Central 60 40-80 50 30-70

Town Hall 70 50-90 60 40-80

Wynyard 60 40-80 50 30-70

Milsons Pt 35 25-45 30 30-40

North Sydney 60 40-80 50 50-70

Waverton 25 25-45 30 20-40

Wollstonecraft 35 25-45 30 30-40

St Leonards 40 30-50 30 20-40

Artarmon 35 25-45 30 20-40

Chatswood 50 30-70 40 30-50

PB-CHA Dwell Times (seconds) for North Shore Line

Train Simulation Model

53

How do you model dwell time? – a statistical distribution

Dwell times independent – no ‘snow balls’ included


54

RMCon – hybrid approach:

German Rail regulation Ril813 for platform and station capacity. Like the TRB framework Divide platform into different functional areas (waiting, walking towards an exit, cueing in front of an escalator, etc) a) model passenger behaviour b) look into ways to manage peoples' behaviour, c) work out different alternatives, such as modifying the platform layout.

Would determine the train dwell times, Input into train operations simulation package RailSYS and provide other outputs Based on alight/board and transfer passengers on platforms “RMCon considered that the method would be quite accurate, although passenger movement simulation could be more accurate by about 1% to 2% but would take significantly more effort time and money.”

Assessment: Improvement on PB’s assumptions but not full simulation or able to model snow balling


55

Microscopic or Agent Based Models

Macroscopic Flow Based - PedRoute

Simulation Approaches

Cellular Automata

Swarm Models

Multi-agent Social Force

Econometric Video Surveillance

Based Models

Artificial Life Video Based

Station Pedestrian Simulation Models

To model the train dwell time in congested situation you also have to mode the platform

But this is a second order effect

The wall of passengers


56

Pedestrian Simulation Packages

Off the shelf packages Legion NOMAD Paramics Pedflow PedGO PedRoute – LUL SimWalk VISSIM AureALIS - Auckland – used in Melbourne

General Simulation Software Arena Simulation Languages Rindsfuser SeSAM

But where do the parameters come from and how are models validated? No redundancy for observations.


57

Rolling Stock Simulations

Beijing – cellular automata – lattice of cells Thameslink – Arup mockup carriage Melbourne Arup (Legion) >>>> Toronto AECOM – (Legion) UK Bombadier – Keith Still


58

Comparing Pedestrian Simulation Models Assessment criteria:

Accuracy: in ability to represent station, passengers & behaviour

Computing: Size limitations, computational time & memory consumption

Quality of visual presentation such as 2D, 3D

Presentation & output of results to enable further analysis

User friendliness ease of building models, changing layout & running simulations

AureALIS


59

Train & Station Simulation

Unlinked Simulations Fine for most situations There was no linked simulation of train and multiple stations But computing is getting exponentially better....

System Simulation Bus Rapid Transit Line example - VISSIM

Linked Simulation Feed results from station simulation into train operations simulation Data transfer issues takes actual time – so real time simulation? Set up and maintenance cost of models

Dwell Time studies: Still No substitute for statistical observations in actuality not mockup cars compare cities eg Melbourne single decks with Sydney double decks


Questions?

60


neil douglas cilt talk 9/4/2014 how many people can you ......

Documents